Posts Tagged ‘watchlists’

Which Stocks are Potential Comeback Candidates?

Friday, December 2nd, 2011

The Australian market has pulled back since its spectacular run in October this year, when the ASX/S&P 200 climbed a staggering 15 percent. In light of this you may wish to find stocks that are likely to stage a comeback in the near term.

In our recent article on identifying stocks with pullback potential we highlighted three candidates due for a pullback, and anyone who followed those ideas could have picked up between 5% and 12% on these trades over the past few weeks.

Market Analyser Can Help

You can use the Market Analyser software to identify keys stocks which are indicating they’re due for a comeback.

Start by using the Watchlist Wizard tool to quickly create a watchlist of stocks from the ASX Top 300. (For help with this tool check this post.)

We can then use the Prealerts scanner to identify stocks that indicate there is “accumulation” taking place, meaning the stock is being picked up by stronger hands as we run into the end of the year.

A scan yesterday produced the following list:
Accumulation scan in the Market Analyser

As you can see there are a number of stocks that are currently undergoing accumulation and could offer a potential buy signals. You may want to research these companies further before entering a trade.

The effectiveness of this scan depends on the current trend of the underlying stock and we have illustrated this in the following three candidates that came up in the scan in the past couple of days:

1) ANZ Bank (ANZ)
2) Wesfarmers (WES)
3) S&P/ASX 200 Index (XJO)

Note that you can also use volume as a confirmation for the buy signal, as you would be looking for volume to pick up as the prices rise.

ANZ Bank (ANZ)

ANZ is a major Australian-based bank operating retail and business banking franchises throughout Australia, New Zealand and the South Pacific. ANZ’s goal is to become Australasia’s leading, most respected and fastest growing major bank. Strategic expansion in Asia differentiates ANZ from its peers, and ANZ CEO Mike Smith has said that he expects 30 percent of its income to come from the Asia-Pacific unit by 2017.

ANZ Bank Chart with Accumulation Indicator

You can see that the Prealerts worked pretty well for ANZ earlier in the year. Even though the overall market was trending down, the Prealerts gave five successful signals that ANZ was due for a bounce. When the stock price was trading into a potential support zone the Prealerts offered a great signal of when the stock price was likely to bounce. ANZ has now surged 8 percent since the signal.

Wesfarmers (WES)

Wesfarmers Limited (WES) is a diversified business covering supermarkets, department stores, home improvement and office supplies, coal mining, insurance, chemicals, energy, fertilisers, industrial and safety products.

Wesfarmers Chart with Accumulation Indicator

Wesfarmers has been trading sideways for the past four months and the Prealerts indicator had given a good signal that the share price was due for a comeback. If you took this signal you would be up around 3.5% in two days and would be watching carefully for price action around the $31.30 level, which had been the key support level in the past month.

S&P/ASX 200 Index (XJO)

Since mid-November the S&P/ASX 200 Index had been sold-down heavily with the all negative sentiment over the eurozone debt crisis, but the index appeared to be due for a relief rally.

S&P/ASX 200 Chart with Accumulation Indicator

Again the Prealert scan has given some great signals in the past six months. There was another signal in the middle of last week which suggested a comeback was due and the index has since risen 5.5%. We would now be monitoring price action around the key pivot level of 4180.

Summary

Utilise the Prealerts features in Market Analyser to scan the markets for your specific trade selection criteria. You will save time and identify some likely comeback candidates.

Disclaimer: The information provided within this article is not a recommendation to trade a specific stock, but is intended for educational purposes only.

By Michael Hevern
Investment Adviser

For Buy and Sell recommendations on ASX listed companies register for a FREE trial of MDS Financial Research. Subscribers are in successful trades for ANZ, BHP, XJO, NAB and RIO to name a few of the recommendations over the past week.

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Identifying What’s Hot and What’s Not

Friday, July 1st, 2011

The Heat Map display in Market Analyser is a fantastic way to identify the hot shares on any given day, and also the shares that are not so hot. The Heat Map takes an enormous amount of data and presents it in a simple-to-view format. To access this feature go to the Market Analyser Menu button, select Tools, then Heat Map. Once you are in the Heat Map window you can select the sector you want to examine more closely with a click on the left hand menu.

The Heat Map displays price movements for the day as well as the volume traded. The higher the volume is, the larger the size of the box, and the more movement, the brighter the colour. Today the strongest performer in the Materials sector was Renison (RSN). Simply double click on this square and you will see a chart of RSN displayed in Market Analyser. RSN (shown in the chart below) has a huge volume spike showing in the chart today, but it is also a very low-priced share, which means strong moves are more likely to occur. The shape of the candlesticks pattern here shows evidence of a share that normally trades in very low volumes, and on some days there is no volume at all.

Market Analyser Chart - RSN

Often you will find the biggest movers among these low volume shares, or illiquid shares as they are often called, but it is usually not practical to trade these shares. Buying can be easy, but trying to sell when there are no interested buyers can be very costly. You can exclude an individual share from the Heat Map, with a right click on the box of the share you wish to exclude. This way you could drop out RSN and redraw the map to identify other hot shares. You can reload the sector to reinstate all the shares.

Filter Shares from Your Heat Map

There are two other shares in the top right corner of the Heat Map that have had strong moves today: Paperlinx (PPX) and Cougar (CGM). Taking a look at the charts of these shares, with a double click on the appropriate box in the Heat Map, provides an interesting perspective.

Use Market Analyser's Heat Map to Find Interesting Shares

Cougar has been climbing higher more rapidly each day, resulting in a parabolic move to the upside. Buying after such a strong move has a very poor risk reward. While the share can continue higher, the risk is that the share pulls back sharply, resulting in a losing trade. Paperlinx would appear to have broken out of a significant down trend and is climbing higher. You can do more research on each of these shares by checking out if there were any related announcements made for these companies today.

The Heat Map can also be applied to any watchlist you have created, allowing you to identify the hot shares among the shares you wish to follow. Right click on the watchlist, and then click Create Heat Map. It’s that easy to identify which shares are hot and which are not with Market Analyser.

By Jeff Cartridge

Sign up for a free trial of Market Analyser Gold, or for more information take a tour of the software.

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Find Price Patterns with Market Analyser

Friday, March 25th, 2011

Did you know that Market Analyser allows you to identify chart patterns?

Not many people are aware of this feature built in to the Market Analyser. Not only can you identify preset patterns, you can define your own patterns to monitor and test, without being a programming wizard. The pattern editor allows you to easily create the pattern that you are looking for and it is automatically converted into code so the Analyser can scan the market for the pattern when it occurs.

Using the Pattern Editor

Click on Menu >> Analysis >> Pattern Editor.

Market Analyser - Pattern Editor

Predefined Patterns

There are a range of predefined patterns which you can scan for using Market Analyser, or alternatively you can use these as the basis for creating your own patterns.

Create Your Own Patterns

Create your own price pattern with a click on Create a New Pattern. The bars displayed on the screen can now be dragged to the shape you want them to be. Place your mouse on the high price and move the high price to the level you want it. Do the same for the open on the left of the bar, close on the right and the low. As you adjust these levels the bar may change colour if the close is lower than the previous day.

A new bar can be added, or a bar can be added with a click on Insert a new price bar and a bar can be deleted by selecting the bar and then click on Delete an existing price bar, both located on the toolbar at the top of the Pattern Editor.

Once you have completed your pattern, remember to click Save and type in a new name.

The new pattern that you have created is now accessible in the Analyser where you can run searches for this price pattern or combine it with other indicators in the Analyser Wizard.

Use the power of Market Anlayser to identify the patterns that you are interested in following, combine patterns and scan your watchlists to identify when these patterns occur.

By Jeff Cartridge

Take a software tour of the Market Analyser and also sign up for a free trial!

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Trading Strategies: Top-Down Trading by Sectors

Friday, August 20th, 2010

The markets have been difficult for traders who use trend following to identify trading opportunities, especially in the past few months as the Australian market has traded sideways.

Market Seasonality

Back in July we gave readers a road map for the markets, as our Education Manager Jeff Cartridge reviewed the seasonality of the market in an attempt provide a potential path for what to expect in the markets this quarter. This review was carried out using seasonal analysis of 26 years of ASX data as show below.

Chart: Australian Market Seasonality (using 26 years of ASX data)

Based on the analysis of seasonality, Australian markets typically trade sideways from mid-August through to the end of September and the current market environment appears to be unfolding in the same typical manner.

If you have been struggling to identify specific stocks to trade in this market, then an alternate option is to approach the market with a top-down view using sectors.

What is Top-Down Trading?

Top-down trading was developed decades ago with the aim of considering as many key factors in your favour as possible before taking a position in the stock market. Top-down investors take a big picture view, looking first at the global economy to forecast which sector will generate the best returns.

This methodology is used to identify sectors that are trending, and then drill down into those sectors and identify stocks that are trading in the same direction.

The Market Analyser software has a very useful charting feature which allows you to step through your watchlist. In the case of sector analysis you can use the watchlist wizard to load the ASX GICS Sectors (“ASX GICS”), then step through each sector on your charts using the “Display the next Xcode in selected Watchlist” ( the blue circle button with arrow), as illustrated below.

Market Analyser - Charting Features

Market Analyser - Charting Features

We have analysed the market by sector using the Market Analyser software and have produced the following table:

Table: Sector performance and trends

The top-down analysis results as tabulated, indicate the S&PASX 200 (.AXJO) is currently directionless with the short and medium term trends in neutral. The only sector(s) you would consider trading to the long side would be the Consumer Staples (.AXSJ) with the short and medium term trends rising, and maybe the Materials sector (.AXMJ) which has a medium term trend rising and short term trend in neutral.

Having identified the sector(s) to drill-down into, we can again use the Market Analyser software to obtain the stocks within the sector by selecting Menu > Quotes > Sector View. You can then select the stocks you are interested in and set up your own watchlist, as illustrated below.

Market Analyser Chart - Watchlist

Market Analyser Chart - Watchlist

Commentary

The Consumer Staples sector is obviously benefiting from the current focus on Agricultural businesses. News last week that Russia is suspending its wheat exports has pushed wheat prices to surge to 24-month highs and brings into focus our Agricultural businesses. Also news this week that BHP wants to take over Canada’s Potash Corp fertiliser business for $US39 billion is also adding to the focus.

The Trade

Trade stocks that are trading with the momentum of the underlying sector. Stocks with exposure to Agricultural business are outperforming in the current market. Foreign companies are eying off these businesses and this is adding fuel to the sector’s performance. There are a number of unresolved acquisition deals at the moment, such as AWB, CSR and Grain Corp. Other stocks to consider are AACo, Elders, Goodman Fielder and Ridley Corp. On a risk/reward basis, trade using a well-defined stop, perhaps just below the two-week lows, and before entering into any long position make sure that the stock price is trading above the previous week’s close.

By Michael Hevern
Head of Research

Sign up for a free trial of Market Analyser!

The information provided within this blog is general advice only and you should consult the services of a financial professional in order to ascertain whether the information is applicable to your investment strategies and risk profile.

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Word from the Nerd- New Features in Rapid Trader

Friday, March 26th, 2010

The Rapid Trader development team has been hard at work. Rapid Trader has a new release due out early next week.

The two main updates are the addition of Top Companies and Fundamental Data information.

The Top Companies section includes near real-time calculations on the top twenty ASX securities based on a range of criteria, including:

• Net Gainers
• Net Losers
• Percent Gainers
• Percent Losers
• Top Volume
• Top Turnover

You can filter the results to show the entire ASX market, just shares or just warrants. The calculations are run every thirty seconds and are automatically updated on your screen. Just like in the watchlists, the actual quote data is streaming.

RTTopCompanies

The Fundamental Page lists general fundamental information for each security.

RTFundamentalData

This includes a business summary, a number of ratios and collated analyst research information, such as recommendations on buy/hold/sell.

These updates are a valuable addition to Rapid Trader’s features,  set to enhance your online trading experience. But we’re still just getting started – the next round of updates will include course of trade details in the Market Depth and potentially a real-time chart. Both features are something you have been asking for, and we’ve been looking forward to releasing for some time.

I once again must express my appreciation of the IT teams we have working for us. Our goal has been to drive the next generation in online trading software and they have been working hard to deliver this.

As always if you have any suggestions or recommendations on Rapid Trader please feel free to e-mail us at info@traderdealer.com.au

Well that’s it for me until next time!

Craig Foley
Chief Information Officer

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