Stock Market Analysis
Gold Record Again; U.S. Markets up for the second week
U.S. stocks ended the day flat but are up for a second week. Across in Europe, Spain successfully auctioned off it’s debt to refresh it’s funds and plans to publish banks’ stress test results in the next few weeks, this lead to improved investor confidence. Our market is likely to open flat with Telstra and Gold stocks to provide support.
The SPI Futures is above the key level of 4500 the ASX is set to open flat as the SPI closed up 6 points (or 0.1%) at 4,566. Key levels this week are 4450 and 4650. Expect our market to trade flat today with gold stocks again in focus as the precious metals reaches record highs, also expect to see some action in Telstra after progress on the $11 billion NBN deal.
U.S. Markets
Miners, and in particular gold miners, lead again the U.S., as the precious metal again closed at new highs. Friday in the U.S. also saw the options and futures contract expire which bought about an increase in trading volumes but market volatility overall decreased. In the U.S. the index of leading indicators, a key gauge of the outlook for growth over the next three to six months, rose 0.4 per cent in May, while other data showed the cost of living dropped and the claims for jobless benefits unexpected increased to the highest level in a month. The data is confirming that even though the U.S. economy will keep expanding in the second half of 2010, it will be with begin with inflation and little job growth.
The Dow rose 16 points, or 0.2 per cent, to 10,450 (up 2.2% for week), while in the broader market the S&P 500 index gained 1 points, or 0.1 per cent, to 1,117 (up 2.4% for week), and the tech-heavy Nasdaq ended flat at 2,310 (up 2.9% for week).
European Markets
In Europe markets ended flat but have had positive moves in the past two weeks, as the German market continue to perform well. The primary focus has been on Spain and successful bond issues and plans to publish its banks’ stress test has resulted in improving investor confidence. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) are “very confident” over Spain’s efforts to shore up it banks and reduce its budget gap. Spain is the fourth-largest of the 16 country EU economies behind: Germany, France and Italy.
In the U.K. the London FTSE 100 index added 3 points, or 0.06 per cent, to 5,251 points (up 1.8% for the week). The German DAX gained 6 points, or 0.1 per cent, to 6,217 points (up 2.2% for week), while in France, the CAC 40 rose 4 points, or 0.1 per cent, to 3,687 points (up 3.9% for the week).
Asian Markets
China has made a move on its currency ahead of this weeks’ G20 meeting, by announcing it will be removing its two year yuan peg to the US dollar, not in a one-off revaluation but will be appreciated in an orderly manner. This is potentially good news for our miners because a strengthening in Chinese currency will make our resources cheaper.
In Asia the Nikkei index of the Tokyo Stock Exchange eased 0.1% to end at 9,995 (up 2.7% for the week). The benchmark Hang Seng Index was up 0.7% at 20,286 (up 2.2% for the week), and China underperformed down 1.8% at 2513 (down 2.2% for the week).
Oil prices finished the week above US$77 a barrel overnight as U.S. The benchmark crude NYMEX for July delivery up US$0.39 to settle at US$77.18 a barrel. Copper prices finished down again but remains around the critical $US3.00 a pound. Copper for July delivery fell 2.1 cents to settle at $US2.882 a pound. Gold closed at a record on concerns about the pace of the U.S. recovery, with August gold jumped $U9.60 to settle at $US1,258.30 an ounce.
Key News Drivers Today
G20 – meeting to be held in Toronto this week.
IMF – are “very confident” over Spain’s efforts to shore up it banks and reduce its budget gap. Spain is the fourth-largest of the 16 country EU economies behind: Germany, France and Italy.
YUAN – China to end its twp-year yuan peg to the US dollar. China has signalled a “more flexible yuan” currency policy, which will allow its currency appreciate in an orderly manner against the US dollar. The yuan has been pegged at 6.83 against the US dollar since mid-2008. It will not be a one-off revaluation.
RSPT Tax – is based on a “flawed” economic theory according to a new study commissioned by the mining industry. They also said the tax will extensively impact job losses and lead to increased volatility in Austalias tax revenue base.
Markets Overview
U.S. Markets Up for Second Week; Gold Shines
SP500: flat at 1,117 – Above 200 day Moving Average (up 2.4% for week)
DOW up 0.2% at 10,450 – Above 10,000 (up 2.2% for week)
NASDAQ: up 0.1% at 2,310 (up 2.9% for week)
Dollar Index: lower at 85.33 on Higher Euro
A$ higher at 87.96
FTSE: flat at 5,250 – Financials Weigh (up 1.8% for week)
DAX down 0.1% at 6,217 – Still in Outperforming (up 3.0% for week)
CHINA: down 1.8% at 2,513 (down 2.2% for week)
HSI up 0.7% at 20,286 (up 2.2% for week)
Oil: up 0.2% ($77.18)
BP Faces Off Congress
Gold: up .9% at ($1,256)
Commodities Mixed
SPI: Above key Level 4500 ASX
SPI up 0.1% at 4,566
ASX News
The SPI Futures is above the key level of 4500 the ASX is set to open flat as the SPI closed up 6 points (or 0.1%) at 4,566. Key levels this week are 4450 and 4650. Expect our market to trade flat today with gold stocks again in focus as the precious metals reaches record highs, also expect to see some action in Telstra after progress on the $11 billion NBN deal.
AUD – higher at 87.95
AMU – Amadeus Energy has revealed it’s the target of takeover moves by U.S. companies.
ALS – Alesco will post a $126 million net loss in FY10 and suspend its dividend until March 2011, due to impairments and one-off expenses.
ANZ – has signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with China Development Bank (CDB) to drive trade and investment flows between China and NZ.
BXB – may lose business to its U.S. rival iGPS, as the U.S. company has told investors it is close to
winning more business from Brambles. This news added to the concern that BXB could miss earnings expectations when it reports in August. Shares were down 4.8%.
CFE – An ASX trading ban on two companies connected to controversial Romanian entrepreneur Frank Timis has been overturned on appeal. The ban on International Petroleum (IPO) and Global Iron (GFE) from trading was “infected by error”, an appeal by the companies to the ASX found. CFE could be indirectly affected by the decision.
GRR – Grange Resources the iron ore miner says a rock slide at its Savage River mine in Tasmania on Thursday is not expected to affect the operation.
CSD – Consolidated Tin Mines, the junior tin exploere says it will begin talks with potential Chinese customers and joint venture partners for its Mt Garnet project in northern Queensland.
DJS – management will meet with its biggest shareholder (Ausbil) this week to discuss its plan to defend its brand as a result of last weeks’ surprise resignation of CEO Mark McInnes.
ELD – in a trading halt as Elders the rural services provider Elders is expected to issue a trading
and operational update next Tuesday morning.
GFF – Goodman Fielder says it has raised $350 million worth of unsecured notes in the U.S. to help repay bank debt.
MAP – has experienced strong growth in passenger numbers at its three Australian and European airports in May, with operations returning to normal after the volcanic ash
cloud over Europe in April.
SDL – likley to be in a trading halt as six mining execs including Ken Talbot (formerly of MacArthur Coal) are missing, reared dead, in the Congo, West Africa on missing plane.
TLS - to receive $11 billion from the government in exchange for sharing its infrastructure with the NBN and migrating customers to the new fibre network. This is a huge step in resolving issues between the government and Telstra re the NBN roll out.
Economic Reports out today:
ABS – reports on international merchandise imports and motor vechiles sales data for May
KEN – Henry to address the Institue of Chartered Accountants tax reform conference today
Market volatility will continue near term, some speculative accumulation is underway.
We the suggest trading strategy is to tighten stops. Be prepared to take profits, remember we are trading into the end of the financial year. Trade gold and Telstra stocks today.
Market Summary
ASX – to open flat
US & UK/Europe – flat
US ADRs – Generally Positive!!!…
BHP up 1.2% & RIO up 0.6%; AWC 2.6%
ANZ up 2.1% & NAB up 1.4%
NEM up 2.6%, JHX down 0.9%, NWS down 0.3%
Commodities Stock Index up 0.7%
Gold Stocks Index up 1.4%
Oil Stocks Index up 0.7%
By Michael Hevern
Head of Research
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