Posts Tagged ‘shareholders’

  • Wednesday, 6th May 2009 MDS Morning Wrap

    Wednesday, May 6th, 2009

    Presented by Michael Hevern
    MDSFinancial

    Click here to watch the presentation.

    or

    Click here to download the mp3 audio recording (1002Kb).

    General Advice Only

    *************************************************
    In this morning s wrap

    DOW: down 0.2%
    Geithner: Sees Recovery to Start by Years End;
    Stress Test: 18 of 19 Banks to need Capital

    NASDAQ: down 0.5% – (up 12% YTD)
    Yahoo up 3.9% (6 month High)

    FTSE: up 2.2% (Catchup)
    3 Month High ;
    DAX down 1% & CAC down 0.1%

    NIKKEI: up 1.6%
    Up 28% since March Low
    Hang Seng up 0.3%

    Oil: up 0.1% – At $54
    US Inventories
    at 18 Year Highs?;

    Gold: down 6% ($896)
    Commodities Mixed;
    USD Lower

    SPI up 10 (0.3%)
    SPI: Critical Levels: 4000 & 3800
    ASX200 Hits 6 month Highs

    ASX News

    RIO Closer to resolving Chinalco bid (up 83% YTD cf BHP up 12%)
    WBC 1H09 profit $2.18bn inline (down 6%); impairment charges triple to $1.6bn
    ANZ XDiv 46c 7-May; $1bn bond issue
    Employment figures Thursday
    Materials, Financials and Energy to be flat
    Golds to weigh
    ASX to open higher; US Beating Earnings

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    Tuesday, 5th May 2009 MDS Morning Wrap

    Tuesday, May 5th, 2009

    Presented by Michael Hevern
    MDSFinancial

    Click here to watch the presentation.

    or

    Click here to download the mp3 audio recording (859Kb).

    General Advice Only

    *************************************************
    In this morning s wrap

    DOW: up 2.6%
    up 27% since March Low
    Housing Figures Surprise to Upside;

    NASDAQ: up 2.6% – (up 12% YTD)
    RIMM up 2.7% (GS says BUY)
    INTEL up 5.1%

    FTSE: CLOSED
    3 Month High ;
    DAX up 2.8% & CAC up 2.5%

    NIKKEI: up 3.9%
    up 28% since March Low
    China s Manufacturing Up (First time in 9 months)
    Hang Seng up 42% since March Low

    Oil: up 2.6% – At $54
    US Inventories Down;
    Recession Easing?

    Gold: up 2% ($901)
    Commodities Higher;
    USD Lower

    SPI: Critical Levels: 4000 & 3800
    ASX200 up 23% since March Low
    SPI up 75 (1.9%)

    ASX News

    Carbon Emissions trading delayed (no cap before 2012)
    ORI 1H09 profit down 2% Sales Rev up 32%
    WBC reports tomorrow
    RBA to hold rates
    Employment figures Thursday
    Materials, Financials and Energy to be up
    Golds to recover
    ASX to open higher; US Housing Data Surprises

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    Lion holding out for meatier offer

    Friday, April 24th, 2009

    Kirin Holdings has offered $6 billion to buy out the remaining 54% of brewer Lion Nathan, but Lion is holding out for a higher bid according to media reports.

    Lion s major shareholders are thought to be aiming at a sale between $11.50 and $13 per share. Before it went into a trading halt on Wednesday, Lion was trading at $8.31.

    • Kirin and rival Asahi are in a race to expand operations outside of Japan. Asahi recently moved to purchase Schweppes Australia, and Kirin has bought National Foods, Berri and Dairy Farmers.
    • Under the proposed deal, the Lion management team would remain in place, and Lion would be responsible for all of Kirin s Australian operations.
    • Lion plans to establish an independent committee to assess the value of the offer for retail investors.
    • The ACCC is also likely to take an interest in the deal, after it enforced several concessions in Kirin s purchase of Dairy Farmers last year.

    For more info and analysis:

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    Telstra finds a single wringable neck

    Wednesday, April 22nd, 2009

    Oracle s proposed takeover of Sun Microsystems will be good news for Telstra, according to an article in The Australian today.

    Telstra s multi-billion dollar IT transformation project includes involvement with both Sun and Siebel (owned by Oracle), and it s thought the project s delays and budget blowouts may be somewhat relieved when there s just one company Telstra can go to resolve problems.

    One analyst refers to the Oracle-Sun merger as providing Telstra with a single throat to choke , which must be an appealing prospect for the project s stakeholders.

    In other good news today for Telstra, the Commonwealth Bank has awarded the telco a contract to provide telecommunication services as the bank upgrades its network. The deal is worth $100 million per year.

    Codes for your watchlist:

    • Telstra: TLS.AX (ASX)
    • Sun Microsystems: JAVA.O (Nasdaq)
    • Oracle Corp: ORCL.O (Nasdaq)

    For more information:

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    Andrew Symonds gets caught in the Storm

    Tuesday, April 21st, 2009

    Andrew Symonds is making news in the Business pages today.

    A statement from a former Storm Financial executive alleges that when Roy borrowed $1 million to invest in Storm, he provided a signed cricket bat in exchange for the Commonwealth Bank waiving a transaction fee.

    The CBA has denied giving Symonds any special treatment, but the same executive claims it s a sign of the close relationship that existed between the failed wealth advisor and the Commonwealth Bank.

    Symonds is thought to be one of thousands of investors hit hard by Storm Financial s collapse. A class action against Storm and its business partners is currently being prepared by Slater & Gordon.

    For more info:

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    BrisCon holders avoiding payment

    Friday, April 17th, 2009

    Humphrey B. Bear appears to be liable for paying the next BrisConnections instalment payment, as do a range of non-existent people.

    In a dash to avoid having to pay $1 for every unity held, many shareholders are using the off-market share transfer system to move ownership of the shares to false names, and to people living overseas.

    The Sydney Morning Herald describes the scheme as a way to launder money and hide shareholdings, and demonstrated this last year by successfully transferring a share to a budgie.

    In any case, BrisConnections faces a tough task in recovering the money due, and may resort to claiming the assets of those shareholders it can identify.

    In a bizarre co-incidence, the real Humphrey B. Bear is making the news today for other reasons. Banksia Productions, responsible for bringing us Here s Humphrey, has been ordered by the courts to wind up, which could force the bear and his plaid waistcoat into retirement after a 44-year career.

    For more info

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    Old dog, new tricks – Protecting Profits

    Wednesday, April 15th, 2009

    With the big run up in the markets over the past three weeks (S&P500 up 20%) it may be time to protect those profits. Obviously the concern is that you may miss out on further upside if you sell out now, but at the same time you do not want to give back your hard earned and as yet unrealised profits.

    To protect profits your options are:

    1. Sell stock holding now but will miss out on any price upside.
    2. Sell calls over your stock (covered call) limits upside and only gives limited protection to the downside.
    3. Buy puts (protective put) protection of unrealized profits at a cost.

    Combination of the Above Options (The Collar Strategy)
    There is an options strategy called a collar that is designed to protect your profits. The primary concern in employing a collar is protection of profits accrued from underlying shares rather than increasing returns on the upside.

    A collar can be established by holding shares of an underlying stock, purchasing a protective put and writing a covered call on that stock. The option portions of this strategy are referred to as a combination.
    The collar is an option strategy which combines a covered call with a protective put:

    1. Covered Call – In the covered call you agree to sell your stock at the call strike price. For this you receive a premium (at the time you sell the call). The drawback with this strategy is that you are limiting your profits to the level of the strike price of the sold call.
    2. Protective Put – With the protective put you are buying protection for your holdings. For this protection you pay out a premium, which gives you the right to sell your stock holdings at the put strike price.

    Market View
    The collar strategy is used when market view is Neutral, following a time of market appreciation.

    Aim of Collar Strategy
    An investor will employ this strategy after accruing unrealised profits from the underlying shares, and wants to protect these gains with the purchase of a protective put. At the same time, the investor is willing to sell his stock at a price higher than current market price so an out-of-the-money call contract is written, covered in this case by the underlying stock.

    Advantages of Using the Collar
    This strategy offers the stock protection of a put. However, in return for accepting a limited upside profit potential on his underlying shares (to the call strike price), the investor writes a call contract. Because the premium received from writing the call can offset the cost of the put the investor is obtaining downside put protection at a smaller net cost than the cost of the put alone. In some cases, depending on the strike prices and the expiration month chosen, the premium received from writing the call will be more than the cost of the put.

    In other words, the combination can sometimes be established for a net credit – the investor receives cash for establishing the position. The investor keeps the cash credit regardless of the price of the underlying stock when the options expire. Until the investor either exercises his put and sells the underlying stock or is assigned an exercise notice on the written call and is obligated to sell his stock, all rights of stock ownership are retained.

    Before Expiration – Roll/Close Position
    The combination may be closed out as a unit just as it was established as a unit. To do this, the investor enters a combination order to buy a call with the same contract and sell a put with the same contract terms, paying a net debit or receiving a net cash credit as determined by current option prices in the marketplace.

    Actions at expiration:

    1. If the underlying stock price is between the put and call strike prices when the options expire, the options will generally expire with no value. The investor will retain ownership of the underlying shares and can either sell them or hedge them again with new option contracts.
    2. If the stock price is below the put strike price as the options expire, the put will be in-the-money and have value, while the call option will expire worthless. The investor can elect to either sell the put before the close of the market on the option’s last trading day and receive cash, or exercise the put and sell the underlying shares at the put strike price.
    3. If the stock price is above the call strike price as the options expire, the sold call will be in-the-money and the investor can expect assignment to sell the underlying shares at the strike price, while the put option will expire worthless. Otherwise, if retaining ownership of the shares is now desired, the investor can close out the sold call position by purchasing a call with the same contract terms before the close of trading.

    Worked Examples

    1) April collar over Westpac (WBC)
    You may trade a Collar over Westpac for April protected with a 1950 April Put and with profit limited with a 2050 April Call. There are three scenarios on exercise day:

    i) Westpac trading above $20.50 on 23-Apr. This would provide an exercised return of 3.2%.

    ii) Westpac trading below $19.50 on 23-Apr. This would result in an exercised loss of 3.2%.

    iii) Westpac trading between $19.50 and $20.50 on 23-Apr. The protection would have cost you 2.0% and you can open a new collar for May (noting XDIV due in May).

    Therefore you can expect returns (with your position protected for 23 days) of between 3.2% and a loss of 3.2% depending on the stock price on the exercise day (see the payoff diagram below).

    Table: Returns for an April collar over WBC.

    Figure: Payoff Diagram for an April collar over WBC (Source Market Analyser).

    2) May collar over Westpac (WBC)

    You may trade a Collar over Westpac for May protected with a 1950 May Put and with profit limited with a 2050 May Call. There are three scenarios on exercise day:

    iv) Westpac trading above $20.50 on 23-Apr. This would provide an exercised return of 0.1% (excluding dividends).
    v) Westpac trading below $19.50 on 23-Apr. This would result in an exercised loss of 7.7% excluding dividends).
    vi) Westpac trading between $19.50 and $20.50 on 23-Apr. The protection would have cost you 5.1% and you can open a new collar for June (excluding dividends).

    Therefore you can expect returns excluding dividends (with your position protected for 58 days) of between 0.1% and a loss of 7.7% depending on the stock price on the exercise day (see the payoff diagram below). Refer to the next section showing the impact of the dividend.

    Table: Returns for a May collar over WBC (excluding dividend).

    Figure: Payoff Diagram for a May collar over WBC (Source Market Analyser).

    3) May collar over Westpac (WBC) – Sweetener Upcoming Dividend Season

    Table: Returns for a May collar over WBC (including dividend).

    Note: Assumption for dividend is for XDIV at 19-May-09 of 55 cents.

    You may trade a Collar over Westpac for May protected with a 1950 May Put and with profit limited with a 2050 May Call. The three scenarios on exercise day are the same as before, however returns improve considerably when you include dividend.

    You can expect returns including dividends (with your position protected for 58 days) of between 2.9% and a loss of 4.9% depending on the stock price on the exercise day (see the payoff diagram below).

    Conclusion
    The Collar Options strategy provides you with protection at a price, but if you have significant unrealised gains or want to take advantage of the upcoming dividend season this strategy can provide you with a limited risk way of holding stock positions in this volatile market environment.

    By Michael Hevern

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    Rio s secret rights issue plan

    Monday, April 6th, 2009

    According to British media, Rio Tinto is planning an $8 billion rights issue as a backup plan, if the Chinalco deal falls through.

    An article in the Times Online has it that Rio has had this contingency plan in place since February, and suggests this backup source of income will boost the confidence of investors. Intriguing!

    Rio Tinto s plan to sell strategic mining assets to Chinalco has faced considerable opposition from major shareholders and from the government s Foreign Investment Review Board, but the share price has nonetheless been on the rise since December.

    Click here to read the full article.

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    Friday 3rd April 2009 MDS Morning Wrap

    Friday, April 3rd, 2009

    Presented by Michael Hevern
    MDSFinancial

    Click here to watch the presentation.

    or

    Click here to download the mp3 audio recording (808Kb).

    General Advice Only

    *************************************************
    In this morning s wrap

    DOW: up 2.8% – Bulls Regain Control
    G-20 Backs Crackdown on Exec Pays and $1Tn Global Aid

    NASDAQ: up 3.3%
    Breaks to Upside;
    Still Outperforms

    FTSE: up 4.3%
    G20 Initiatives
    DAX up 6.1% & CAC up 5.4%

    NIKKEI: up 4.4%
    Auto Sales Surprise to Upside;
    Hang Seng up 7.4%

    Oil: up 8.3% – At $52
    Expected Recovering Economies

    Gold: down 2.4% ($904)
    Commodities Higher;
    USD Lower

    SPI: Critical Levels: 4000 Next Key Level
    SPI up 56 (+1.5%);

    ASX News
    * TEN 1H09 35% loss
    * LEI sees Aus economy to bottom in 2009
    * NEM Cashed up for acquisitions
    * Energy to lead
    * Materials to recover
    * Financials continued support
    * ASX to open higher G-20 $1Tn Aid

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    Bank shareholders can expect a dividend cut

    Thursday, March 5th, 2009

    Dividend cuts from major banks
    Analysts are anticipating that the major banks will be cutting shareholder dividends to the value of $7 billion over the next two years.

    ANZ has indicated it will cut its dividend by up to 25%, and the NAB is expected to follow suit. The Commonwealth and Westpac are tipped to make cuts between 12 and 15%.

    AMP Banking Relaunch
    In other banking news, AMP is planning to revive its retail banking brand, in an effort to capitalise on the gaps in the market left by the acquisitions of Bankwest and St George.

    AMP Banking has remained profitable through the credit crisis, according to the Herald Sun, and the hoped-for increased deposits will be recycled into the mortgage business.

    A well-financed marketing campaign begins on Sunday, so we can expect to hear a lot more about what s on offer.

    Stocks for your watchlist:

    • ANZ Bank: ANZ.AX (ASX)
    • National Australia Bank: NAB.AX (ASX); NAB.NZ (NZX)
    • Commonwealth Bank: CBA.AX (ASX)
    • Westpac: WBC.AX (ASX); WBC.NZ (NZX); WBK.N (NYSE)
    • AMP Ltd: AMP.AX (ASX); AMP.NZ (NZX)

    Further information:

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