Posts Tagged ‘Rio’

  • ASX Company News: Rio Tinto Finalises Iron Ore JV Agreement With Chalco

    Friday, July 30th, 2010

    Rio Tinto (RIO) and Chalco signed a binding agreement to establish a joint venture (JV) covering the development and operation of the Simandou iron ore project in Guinea.   The binding agreement follows the signing of a memorandum of understanding between Rio Tinto and Chalco’s parent Chinalco announced on 19 March 2010. The agreement covers all aspects of how the JV and project itself will operate and be governed, including planning, construction and management of the mine and associated rail and port infrastructure.

    Jan du Plessis, chairman, Rio Tinto and Xiong Weiping, president, Chinalco, and chairman and chief executive officer, Chalco today attended a signing ceremony in the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. Government officials from China, Guinea, the United Kingdom and Australia were represented at the event.

    Mr du Plessis said: “Developing our relationship and business links with China is a key priority for Rio Tinto. This agreement takes our relationship with China and our largest shareholder Chinalco to a new level, building on a line of successful partnerships between Rio Tinto and China dating back to the start of the Channar iron ore joint venture in the Pilbara a generation ago. The formation of partnerships is integral to our business engagement with China. We are confident that the knowledge and experience gained from these other ventures will help make this joint venture our most successful yet undertaken with a Chinese partner.”

    Mr Xiong said: “The establishment of a joint venture will make use of Chinalco’s advantages in the infrastructure field and its profound understanding of the Chinese market as well as Rio Tinto’s technologies and experience in the operation of large mining projects, so as to form a complementary and powerful union. We believe the successful development of the Simandou project will greatly quicken the pace of local infrastructure construction and economic development. This project can also efficiently balance China’s need for security of supply on the global iron ore market. We expect the two sides will regard cooperation on the Simandou project to be the foundation for further pushing forward the cooperation of these two companies in other resource projects.”

    Tom Albanese, chief executive, Rio Tinto said: “We are excited about formalising our partnership with Chinalco through its subsidiary Chalco. Rio Tinto, Chinalco and the IFC together form an extremely strong development team. We expect to realise great economic and social benefits for the people of Guinea from the development of the Simandou project. This is a world-class iron ore project. We firmly believe this agreement will deliver great value for our shareholders. We remain committed to continued engagement with the Guinean Government and other key stakeholders. We continue to invest funds to keep this important project moving forward and anticipate mining operations would start within five years.”

    Luo Jianchuan, president, Chalco, said: “This transaction is consistent with the company’s development strategy to seek development opportunities in the mining industry and to seek high-quality overseas mineral projects. We hope Chalco and Rio Tinto can join efforts to enable the Simandou project to be put into production according to the development schedule reached by the two sides, so as to bring huge value to all related parties.”

    Under the terms of the agreement, Rio Tinto’s 95 per cent interest in the Simandou project will be held in the new JV. Chalco will acquire a 47 per cent interest in the new JV by providing US$1.35 billion on an earn-in basis through sole funding of ongoing development work over the next two to three years. Once Chalco has paid its US$1.35 billion, the effective interests of Rio Tinto and Chalco in the Simandou project will be 50.35 per cent and 44.65 per cent respectively. The remaining five per cent will be owned by the International Finance Corporation (IFC), the financing arm of the World Bank.

    Both Rio Tinto and Chalco are keen to progress the project as soon as possible and are working with all stakeholders to expedite the process. The formation of the JV will be finalised in consultation with the Guinean Government and following satisfaction of various regulatory requirements.

    www.riotinto.com

    http://www.traderdealer.com.au/Fundamentals/rio

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    CFD Trading: Pairs Trading With CFDs

    Friday, July 16th, 2010

    If you have been struggling with the volatility in your trading accounts lately then perhaps it is time to take a look at pairs trading using CFDs. Pairs trading can dramatically reduce the impact of daily market swings on your account, is market neutral and can deliver profits in both a rising and falling markets.

    What is Pairs Trading?

    Pairs trading involves buying one share (trading long) and selling a second share (trading short). The long position in one share is matched with a similar sized short position in another share. If you believe BHP will outperform RIO, then you could buy $50,000 BHP and sell $50,000 of RIO. You then profit from the difference in performance between the two shares.

    Buy the share/s that you believe are stronger and sell the share/s that you believe are weaker. If the market rises, all shares are likely to rise but the strong share should rise more than the weak share. This reverses when the market falls because the weak share is likely to fall faster than the strong share. This strategy will usually under perform a straight long position when the market is rising but will minimise losses when the market falls.

    Trading currency is one form of pairs trading because a currency is always traded in relationship to another currency. Traders can trade the relationship between the Australian dollar and the United States dollar. If your view was that the US dollar was going to outperform the Australian dollar, then you would buy the US dollar and sell the Australian dollar to the same dollar value. Your profit or loss is then dependent on the relative performance of the two currencies and is unrelated to the performance of either currency to another currency, for example, the Euro.

    When pairs trading using CFDs you will receive interest on the share that you have sold short and you will have to pay interest on the share that you have bought for the long position. For example if the interest charged is the RBA base rate + 2 per cent on long positions and RBA base rate – 2 per cent on short positions, your net interest charge will be the difference of 4 per cent when using this strategy.

    The Market Analyser software has two very useful charting features that can assist with your pairs trading. The obvious “Pair chart” displays the red line below the graph showing the relationship of the two shares. The “Overlay chart” draws the chart of the second share as a line on the original share. In the example below the base chart is BHP and the overlay is RIO.

    Market Analyser Chart: BHP and RIO

    From studying this chart it becomes clear that BHP and RIO follow each other fairly closely, most of the time, but there are times when the two charts diverge. At the very right of the chart BHP has been underperforming RIO, which can be seen by the pairs chart in the lower screen falling away during June. At the same time the overlay chart of RIO is moving higher more rapidly than BHP. This is reversing the out performance of BHP through May, where BHP fell less than RIO did. If you were long BHP and short RIO you would have made money in May, but lost money in June. It is important that the pairs chart in the lower window is rising or falling for you to make money, it is unimportant what the price is actually doing.

    Pairs Chart: BHP and RIO

    Pairs trading can provide you with the opportunity to profit from differences in the performance of two shares when trading with CFDs. Market Analyser has two tools that can assist you to find opportunities to pairs trade, by plotting the relative performance of the shares you are interested in. CFDs are the ideal instrument to use for pairs trading as CFDs can be easily short sold. In addition to this pairs trading with CFDs reduces the volatility and can smooth out your overall returns.

    By Jeff Cartridge
    Education Manager

    Sign up for a free trial of Market Analyser!

    Risk Disclaimer

    Be aware that CFDs are leveraged products which carry a high level of risk to your capital, as it is possible to incur losses that exceed your initial investment. Therefore CFDs may not be suitable for your level of acceptable investment risk. Before proceeding with CFD trading, ensure you fully understand the risks involved, otherwise seek independent financial advice

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    Stock Market Analysis: Overseas Markets Turnaround on Bargain Hunting; ASX to Follow Higher

    Wednesday, July 7th, 2010

    Stock Market Analysis

    Overseas Markets Turnaround on Bargain Hunting; ASX to Follow Higher

    Overseas markets see some respite with the U.S. markets up for the first day in eight.  European markets also gave us positive leads for the ASX today.  Bargain hunters are starting to step in, as most markets have retraced over 38.2% from their peaks, and there is now a distinct stop level.

    The SPI Futures is just above the key level of 4200 the ASX is set to open higher as the SPI closed up 11 points (or 0.3%) at 4,275.  Key levels this today are 4300 and 4200. Expect our market to trade higher as the RBA has left  interest rates on hold at 4.5%.  The bulls will be encouraged by Australia’s trade surplus which is at its third highest on record as exports of gold, wheat and coal all jumped.  Bargain hunting is creeping in, but stick to liquid stocks and place stops at recent lows.

    US Markets

    The U.S. markets open significantly higher overnight (with the Dow Jones up  173 points early), but they spent the rest of the day drifting lower and finishing just in the positive, also of concern is the fact that more stocks fell than rose on the NYSE.  Retail stocks continued to weigh on concerns over unemployment (now at 9.5%) going forward.  The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) released figures showing growth in services businesses slowed with the index falling ot 53.8 (from 55.4 in May), a reading of 50 indicates growth.

    The Dow up 57 points, or 0.6 per cent, to 9,743, while in the broader market the S&P 500 index up 5 points, or 0.5 per cent, to 1,028 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq ended up 2 points or 0.1 per cent at 2,094.

    European Markets

    In Europe, markets saw bargain hunters step in, ahead of the much awaited bank “stress test” reports due out in the next couple of weeks.   In the London FTSE 100 index up 141  points, or 2.9 per cent, to 4,965 points,  the German DAX pulled up 125 points, or 0.3 per cent, to 5,940 points, while in France the CAC pulled 95 points, or 2.8 per cent, to 3,555 points.

    Asian Markets

    In Asia markets halted their recent sell off.  In Japan the Nikkei index of the Tokyo Stock Exchange up to end at 9,338. The benchmark Hang Seng Index was up 1.2% at 20,084  and China was up 45 or 1.9%  at 2,409.

    Commodities Overview

    Oil prices continue to fall on concerns of over the state of the recovery.  The benchmark crude NYMEX for July delivery down US$0.16 to settle at US$71.98 a barrel.  Copper prices rose, still below the key $US3.00 a pound, Copper for July delivery up 5.5 cents to settle at $US 2.971 a pound. Gold has dropped over 4% this month, with August gold down $US12.60 to settle at $US1,195.10 an ounce.

    Key News International Drivers Today

    US – The ISM release figures showing growth in services businesses slowed with the index falling ot 53.8 (from 55.4 in May), a reading of 50 indicates growth.

    EU – Markets preempt a turnaround after the bank “stress test” data is released in the next couple of weeks.

    ASX- Trade surplus is at third highest level on record, cushioning the domestic economy.

    Markets Overview

    Overseas Markets Higher as Bargain Hunters Step In

    SP500: up 0.5% at 1,028 – Still Below 200 day Moving Average
    DOW  up 0.6% at 9,743 – Off 2009 Oct. Support Level
    NASDAQ: up 0.1% at 2,094

    Dollar Index: Lower at 84.08 on higher Euro
    A$ higher at 85.14

    FTSE: up 2.9% at 4,823 – Financials & Miners Recover
    DAX up 2.2% at 5,940 – Below 6,000 level

    CHINA: up 1.9% at 2,409
    HSI  up 1.2% at 20,084

    Oil:  down 0.5% ($71.98)
    Economic Growth Concerns

    Gold: down 1.2% at ($1,195.80)
    Commodities Mixed

    SPI: At key Level 4200
    SPI up 0.3% at 4,275

    ASX News Today

    The SPI Futures is just above the key level of 4200 the ASX is set to open higher as the SPI closed up 11 points (or 0.3%) at 4,275.  Key levels this today are 4300 and 4200. Expect our market to trade higher as the RBA has left  interest rates on hold at 4.5%.  The bulls will be encouraged by Australia’s trade surplus which is at its third highest on record as exports of gold, wheat and coal all jumped.  Bargain hunting is creeping in, but stick to liquid stocks and place stops at recent lows.

    AUD – higher at 85.14

    AWC - China has shut down aluminium smelters to meet energy conservation targets.

    BANKS – are holding cash of $12.7 billion, shoring up balance sheets in case of European debt contaigon.
    APRA urge banks to keep reserves at these levels.

    BLD – will raise $490 million to fund growth in Australia and U.S.  The rights issue will be at $4.10 a 16% discount.

    BPT – enters into a non-binding deal which may lead to the supply of LNG gas to a Japanese company ITOCHU.

    CDD -  Cardno Ltd is to seek $49 million through a capital raising, to fund acquisitions and strengthen its balance sheet.

    CEY – recommends all cash takeover offer from Thailand-based Banpu Public Company Ltd at $6.20 per share.

    CSR – Building products maker will sell ifs Asian insulation business to Rockwool International for $128 million.  A day after it agreed to sell its sugar and renewable energy business, Sucrogen, to Singapore-based Wilmar International Ltd for $1.75 billion.

    XSTRATA – will restart $186 million in early works and exploration in Queensland now the RSPT has been resolved.

    Economic Reports:

    HIA – report the June construction index

    Market volatility will continue near term, some speculative accumulation is underway. Bargain hunting is creeping in, but stick to liquid stocks and place stops at recent lows.

    Market Summary

    ASX – to open higher
    US & UK/Europe – Positive leads.

    US ADRs – Generally Higher!!!…

    BHP up 1.8%  & RIO up 2.7%; AWC up 2.2%
    ANZ up 3.5% & NAB up 1.7%
    NEM down 0.2%, JHX flat, NWS up 1.6%

    Commodities Stock Index up 0.6%
    Gold Stocks Index down 1.1%
    Oil Stocks Index up 1.3%

    By Michael Hevern
    Head of Research

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    Stock Market Analysis: Overseas Markets Continue Lower; RBA to Hold Rates

    Monday, July 5th, 2010

    Stock Market Analysis

    Overseas Markets Continue Lower; RBA to Hold Rates
    Overseas markets continue to trade lower, with the U.S. giving us a negative lead. The Dow Jones finished at a none month low. European markets also finished a torrid week lower. This all points to a lower ASX today.

    The SPI Futures is just above the key level of 4200 the ASX is set to open marginally lower as the SPI closed down 30 points (or 0.6%) at 4,213.  Key levels this week are 4350 and 4000. Expect our market to trade flat to lower again today, given the negative leads from overseas.

    US Markets

    The U.S. markets were lower for a second week with its first seven day fall since 2008, after economic data is raising concerns of a double dip recession. U.S. employers eliminated jobs in June, adding to concern the economy is falling back into recession. The unemployment rate dropped to 9.5 percent (from 9.7 percent), also manufacturing is expanding at a slower pace due to fewer orders and demand with the ISM manufacturing index fell to 52.6 from 59.7 from the previous month.  The U.S. is closed for Independence Day celebrations tonight.

    The Dow down 46 points, or 0.5 per cent, to 9,686 (down 4.4% for week), while in the broader market the S&P 500 index down 5 points, or 0.5 per cent, to 1,022 (down 4.9% for week) and the tech-heavy Nasdaq ended lower 9 points or 0.5 per cent at 2,092 (down 6.1% for week).

    European Markets

    In Europe stocks declined for a second week on concerns on faultering recovery, and disappointing economic data.  Benchmark stocks indices all fell last week in the EU countries. In the London FTSE 100 index down 32 points, or 0.7 per cent, to 4,838 points (down 4.3% for week). The German DAX pulls back 23 points, or 0.4 per cent, to 5,834 points (down 4.2% for week).

    Asian Markets

    The key news in Asia continues to point to a slowing economic recovery. The Chinese markets have fallen to 14-month lows on concerns their fiscal tightening will stunt their economic growth and the worst than expected PMI manufacturing data fro a second month falling from 52.1 from 53.9 in May.  Goldman’s has lowered their 2010 growth forecasts for China from to 10.1 percent from 11.4 percent, but have left their 2011 forecasts at 10 percent.

    In Japan the Nikkei index of the Tokyo Stock Exchange flat to end at 9,203 (down 5.7% for week). The benchmark Hang Seng Index was down 1.1% at 19,905 (down 3.8% for week) ,  and China was down 0.1%  at 2,383 (down 7% for week).

    Commodities Overview

    Oil prices dropped 8.4 per cent in the past week.  The benchmark crude NYMEX for July delivery down US$0.81 to settle at US$72.14 a barrel.  Copper prices rose, still below the key $US3.00 a pound, Copper for July delivery up 3.9 cents to settle at $US 2.916 a pound. Gold was up, with August gold down $US1.00 to settle at $US1,207.40 an ounce.

    Key News International Drivers Today

    US – Response to the weak employment report from last Friday.

    EU – Markets fall on continuing debt concerns

    CHINA – Chinese markets have fallen to 14-month lows, as the PMI manufacturing data came in worst than expected.

    Markets Overview

    Overseas Markets Continue Below Key Levels; ASX Set to Trade Lower

    SP500: down 0.5% at 1,016 – Below 200 day Moving Average   (down 4.9% for week)
    DOW  down 0.5% at 9,686 – Below Key Support Level  (down 4.4% for week)
    NASDAQ: down 0.5% at 2,092 (down 6.1% for week)

    Dollar Index: Lower at 84.41 on higher Euro
    A$ higher at 84.14

    FTSE: up 0.7% at 4,838 – Financials & Miners Weigh   (down 4.3% for week)
    DAX down 1.8% at 5,834 – Below 6,000 level   (down 4.2% for week)

    CHINA: up 0.4% at 2,383 – Slowing Growth Concerns   (down 4.3% for week)
    HSI  down 1.1% at 19,905 (down 3.8% for week)

    Oil:  up 0.2% ($72.28)   (down 8.4% for week)
    Economic Growth Concerns

    Gold: up 0.13% at ($1,207.40)   (down 4.0% for week)
    Commodities Lower

    SPI: At key Level 4200
    SPI down 0.6% at 4,213   (down 4.7% for week)

    ASX News Today

    The SPI Futures is just above the key level of 4200 the ASX is set to open marginally lower as the SPI closed down 30 points (or 0.6%) at 4,213.  Key levels this week are 4350 and 4000. Expect our market to trade flat to lower again today, given the negative leads from overseas.

    Resource Super-Profits Tax (RSPT) Deal

    The government has given ground to the miners to the tune of $1.5 billion, but miners will pay more tax. The deal is:

    * the headline tax rate will be reduced to 30% (from the original 40% rate)
    * the trigger point at which the tax cuts in will be the bond rate plus 7 per cent
    * existing projects will get concessions
    * the tax will be applied to the point of extraction
    * the tax gets a new name to “Minerals Resource Rent Tax”
    * will only apply to iron ore and coal projects.
    * oil and gas projects will fall under the existing Petroleum Resource Rent Tax.

    This should give miners some support near term.

    In other news:

    AUD – higher at 84.14

    AQA – Aquila says it is reviewing a decision to allow third party access to rail lines owned by BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto.

    CSR – get formal bid from Brightfoods for sugar division for $1.65 to $1.7 billion.

    DOW – Downer the engineering group says the potential default of one of its loan guarantors has not put at risk a $357 million funding facility needed to complete the Waratah Train carriages project.

    FXJ – Fairfax has extended a $292 million tranche of its existing syndicated bank facility from April 2011 to April 2014.

    LEI – signs $597million four year deal with India to build road network.

    MOS – Mosaic gets $123 million takeover offer from AGL.  Shares soared 67%, Thursday .

    MTS – Metcash will buy the Franklins chain of 85 supermarkets in NSW from South African retailer Pick n Pay for $215 million

    NAB – is seeking a second extension for AXA bid.

    OILs – the current petroleum resource rent tax regime will be extended to all onshore oil and gas projects, including coal seam gas, at a 40 per cent tax rate.  This impacts AOE, ORG, STO WPL.

    RSPT – The watered down tax is now called the Minerals Resource Tax (MRRT). Miners says investments will resume.  This will impact the big miners BHP, FMG, RIO.

    Economic Reports:

    Australian Performance of Services Index will be reported today.

    ANZ – job advertising data
    New car sales for June

    RBA rate decision is due a 2:30pm Tuesday.  They are expected to leave the interest rate at 4.5% says a consensus survey from Bloomeberg.

    Market volatility will continue near term, some speculative accumulation is underway. We the suggest trading strategy is to tighten stops. Be prepared to take profits and open/hold short positions.  U.S. celbrate Independence Day tonight.

    Market Summary

    ASX – to open flat
    US & UK/Europe – Broadly Lower…

    US ADRs – Mixed!!!…

    BHP up 0.5%  & RIO up 0.2%; AWC down 0.4%
    ANZ down 0.4% & NAB up 0.1%
    NEM down 0.4%, JHX down 1.4%, NWS down 1.3%

    Commodities Stock Index down 0.1%
    Gold Stocks Index up 0.1%
    Oil Stocks Index upo 0.1%

    By Michael Hevern
    Head of Research

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    Taxing Times: Resources Super Profits Tax (RSPT) Negotiations

    Wednesday, June 30th, 2010

    Taxing Times: Resources Super Profits Tax (RSPT) Negotiations

    One of the first actions by the new Labor government leadership was to adopt a more conciliatory approach to the proposed resource super profits tax (RSPT). The government is eager to approach the big Aussie miners BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Xstrata, in order to establish a new process for resolving the proposed RSPT issues.

    Under the original RSPT proposal the government has estimated tax takings of $12 billion in the first two years. Most of these takings will come from BHP and RIO and it is estimated the earnings will be hit by 15% for BHP and 25% for RIO.

    Any compromise over the proposed tax will impact the federal budget forecasts, with treasurer Wayne Swan quick to reiterate that cuts backs in the RSPT revenue will impact the Budgets in the areas of superannuation, company tax cuts and infrastructure spending commitments.

    Miners are fiercely combating the proposed RSPT because it is seen as setting a precedent for overseas governments in relation to their tax environments into the future. The big miners of course are not interested in whether the government can balance its budget, but they have made moves to negotiate over the tax.

    BHP’s CEO Marius Kloppers was quick to offer the government an olive branch in suspending their damaging advertising campaign, however at the same time he restated the stance of the big miners that the new tax: should only apply to new projects, should distinguish between the commodities being mined and should be levied close to the extraction point. The big miners are prepared to pay more tax, indicating support for a profit based tax to replace royalties.

    RSPT – The Government and Miners Need to Resolve:

    The question that needs to be resolved in any negotiations include:

    What will the tax rate be? Currently the tax rate will be 40 per cent.

    Will the new tax apply to existing projects? Big miners say NO! The government will be keen to see the tax to apply to existing projects because that will encompass the highly profitable Pilbara mines in Western Australia.

    What is the threshold rate where the tax will kick in? Miners wants a significant
    increase in the threshold at which the levy kicks in ( from 6% up to 15%)

    How will the new tax impact on depreciation allowances?

    What will happen with write-offs for new capital spending?

    How will the tax be applied to assets? Whether at book or market value.

    At what point will the tax be levied? Big miners are pushing for the point of extraction, but the government is also considering taxing after any value-adding due to processing has occurred.

    Our View – The Proposed RSPT is Hurting Our Mining Sector

    Mining activities have been impacted as a result of this new proposed tax. Miners have shelved some projects, banks are re-evaluating extension of credit for projects, foreign investment has been withdrawn due to the ongoing uncertainty over the tax and we have seen weakness in the Aussie dollar.

    The government is still under pressure to resolve this issue before the looming federal election, and miners are threatening to resume their advertising campaign in the next two weeks. Fortescue’s CEO Andrew Forrest claims that he was close to resolving the issue with Prime Minister Kevin Rudd before the leadership challenge, so you would expect this to provide a base level for ongoing discussions.

    There is a case for both parties to compromise on the tax. This is particularly the case given the continuing uncertainty regarding the global economic outlook as seen overnight. We expect that this RSPT has to be resolved before the next federal election.

    By Micheal Hevern
    Head of Research

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    Stock Market Analysis: Overseas Markets Mixed with U.S. Flat & Europe Higher; ASX to focus on RSPT

    Tuesday, June 29th, 2010

    Stock Market Analysis

    Overseas Markets Mixed with U.S. Flat & Europe Higher; ASX to Focus on RSPT & Tax Time

    U.S. stocks were flat overnight, with the energy and financial sectors weighing down around 1 per cent. G20 meeting has agreed to cut deficits in half by 2013 government deficits, this has also weighed on investor sentiment, due to the cut backs in spending that will be needed in order to meet these targets. Across in Europe markets traded higher. The ASX is due to trade flat to lower, watch out for developments on the RSPT as Wayne Swan returns from the G-20 meeting.

    The SPI Futures is below the key level of 4500 the ASX is set to open lower as the SPI closed down 15 points (or 0.3%) at 4,362.  Key levels today are 4450 and 4250. Expect our market to trade flat to lower today.  The proposed RSPT tax will continue to be in focus, with Wayne Swan back and the new PM prepared to negotiate with the interested parties.

    US Markets

    Sectors were mixed in the U.S. with the financial and energy sectors lower around 1%, while consumer related stocks rose 1.1 per cent, with Coca-Cola and Proctor and Gamble up over 1%. The rise in consumer stocks was helped by a government report that in May incomes grew 0.4 per cent faster than consumer spending at 0.2 per cent. Price adjusted spending on durable goods also increased 1.1 per cent last month. The key news for Europe was the G-20 meeting agreeing to cut deficits in half by 2013 government deficits, and to stabilise their debt-to-output ratios by 2016.

    The Dow was down 5 points, or 0.1 per cent, to 10,139, while in the broader market the S&P 500 index down 2 points, or 0.2 per cent, to 1,074 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq ended 0.13 per cent higher at 2,220.

    European Markets

    The better than expected consumer spending data from the U.S. also helped European markets. In the U.K. stocks broke a four day losing streak, with miners and energy on the improve, but banks were mixed. In the London FTSE 100 index up 25 points, or 0.5 per cent, to 5,072 points. The German DAX up 86 points, or 1.4 per cent, to 6,157 points, while in France, the CAC 40 up 57 points or 1.6 per cent, to 3,576 points.

    Asian Markets

    The key news in Asia this week will be the report on China’s manufacturing sector (PMI) due out Wednesday. In Japan the Nikkei index of the Tokyo Stock Exchange down 0.4% to end at 9,693. The benchmark Hang Seng Index was up 0.2% at 20,272,  and China was down 0.7%  at 2,535.

    Commodities Overview

    Oil prices still above US$77 a barrel overnight on hurricane concerns in the Gulf. The benchmark crude NYMEX for July delivery down US$0.61 to settle at US$78.25 a barrel.  Copper prices finished above the key $US3.00 a pound, Copper for July delivery fell 2.1 cents to settle at $US 3.009 a pound. Gold closed lower, with August gold down $US17.60 to settle at $US1,238.60 an ounce.

    Key News International Drivers Today

    G20 – meeting agrees to cut deficits in half by 2013 government deficits, and to stabilise their debt-to-output ratios by 2016.

    USimportant job figures are due out Friday.

    CHINA – Watch for manufacturing PMI report tomorrow

    GDP -  U.S. consumer spending improves

    OIL – prices elevated due to start of hurricane season.

    Markets Overview

    U.S. Markets see Late Selling, Europe was Higher; ASX will Focus on G-20 Reports; RSPT Progress

    SP500: down 0.2% at 1,072 – Below 200 day Moving Average
    DOW  down 0.1% at 10,139 – Above 10,000
    NASDAQ: down 0.13% at 2,220

    Dollar Index: Higher at 85.68 on lower Euro
    A$ lower at 87.11

    FTSE: up 0.5% at 5,071 – Financials & Miners Weigh
    DAX up 1.4% at 6,157 – Off Highs but Still in Outperforming

    CHINA: down 0.7% at 2,535 – Property Bubble Concerns
    HSI  up 0.2% at 20,726

    Oil:  down 0.6% ($78.25)
    Good Week Ahead of Hurricane Season

    Gold: down 1.4% at ($1,238.60)
    Commodities Lower

    SPI: Below key Level 4500 ASX
    SPI down 0.3% at 4,362

    ASX News Today

    The SPI Futures is below the key level of 4500 the ASX is set to open lower as the SPI closed down 15 points (or 0.3%) at 4,362.  Key levels today are 4450 and 4250. Expect our market to trade flat to lower today.  The proposed RSPT tax will continue to be in focus, with Wayne Swan back and the new PM prepared to negotiate with the interested parties.

    AUD – higher at 87.48

    AIO – Asciano the ports and rail operator has completed the restructuring of its bank facilities, bringing it a step closer to being in line with its peers.

    ANZ – says banks are having to refinance their funds at higher rates, giving borrowers little prospect for lower rates.

    DOW – there are revelations that an email confirms that a $35 million payment to supplier(s) were held back to meet end-of-year cashflow targets ad avoid net cash outflow, according to an SMH report. The share price is likely to be sold off again today as Goldman’s is set to highlight the risks that remain for the stock.

    FGL – China’s BrightFoods is reported to be interested is selected wine assets, primarily those in NSW.

    GCL – Noble Group has extended its $12.60/share takeover offer for Glouster Coal by one month.

    GBG - Gindalbie the iron ore mine developer is looking beyond Australia for acquisitions and could branch out into mining other commodities including coal.

    MQG – share slump in past 5 days is worst since March 2009, after the company cuts its forecasts.

    PGL – Progen has been granted a European patent for the preparation and use of sulfated oligosaccharides which includes muparfostat (PI-88).

    RCY – has cut its tolls for it’s unpopular $3 billion Brisbane Clem7 tunnel, in a bid to improval useage.

    SGH – Slater & Gordon the law pactice will raise $40 million to fund its purchase of a Queensland-based personal injury litigation firm.

    WYL – Wattyl has accepted a $142 million all cash takeover bid from US paint giant The Valspar Corporation ie. $1.67/share (vs last close of $1.26).

    WOR – WorleyParsons has won a contract to provide engineering services for Brazilian iron ore mining company Vale’s S11D processing facility in Brazil.

    Economic Reports out today:

    New PM & Wayne Swan – watch out for more on RSPT tax
    Banks – Australian banks face higher funding costs
    National credit protection laws, intended to protect borrowers from predatory lendig practices will come into force on Thursday.

    M&A – activity has been crushed since the proposed RSPT was announced with M&A this quarter at totalling $879million (versus deals worth $9.1billion last year) according to a Bloomberg Survey.

    Market volatility will continue near term, some speculative accumulation is underway. We the suggest trading strategy is to tighten stops. Be prepared to take profits and open/hold short positions.  We are trading into the end of the financial year.

    Market Summary

    ASX – to open flat

    US & UK/Europe – Generally Lower…
    US ADRs – Generally Lower!!!…

    BHP down 1.9%  & RIO down 0.8%; AWC up 0.2%
    ANZ down 0.8% & NAB down 2.7%
    NEM down 0.3%, JHX down 2.1%, NWS up 0.9%

    Commodities Stock Index down 1.4%
    Gold Stocks Index down 1.3%
    Oil Stocks Index down 1.0%

    By Michael Hevern
    Head of Research

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    Stock Market Analysis: Thursday 17th June 2010

    Thursday, June 17th, 2010

    Stock Market Analysis

    Markets flat as Europe’s Spanish banks undergo “Stress Tests”

    US stocks ended the day flat. The big news of the day was that BP have agreed to put $US20 billion into a fund for the victims of the Gulf Oil Spill. Across in Europe the Spanish banks have agreed to “Stress Testing”.

    The SPI Futures is above the key level of 4500 the ASX is set to open flat as the SPI closed up 6 points (or 0.1%) at 4,566. Key levels today are 4500 and 4650. Expect our market to trade flat. The government remains steadfast on the 40% RSPT tax.

    The Dow rose 4 points, or 0.1 per cent, to 10,409,  while in the broader market the S&P 500 index lost 0.6 points, or 0.06 per cent, to 1,114, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq ended flat at 2,306. Better than expected May data for the output at factories, mines and utilities rising 1.2 per cent (vs 0.7 per cent in April) offset a 10 percent fall in Housing starts last month. The industrial production data did provide further confirmation that the manufacturing sector continues to recover, in the U.S. BP was again in focus agreeing to set up a $US20 billion fund and at the same time suspending its $US10 billion dividend.

    European markets ended the day higher following an agreement by Spanish banks to undergo “Stress Testing”, the results of which will be reported in the next couple of weeks. The Stress testing of the US Banks marked the turnaround in the recent GFC, and governments are looking for this to mark a “line in the sand” for European banks. There is a concern though that the results will be delivered over a number of days, which will cause speculation on those banks that have not reported their “Stress Test” results, but it is definitely a step in the right direction.  This saw the euro above $US1.23.

    In the U.K. new financial service regulation is being implemented as a result of the now largely nationalised banking system as a result of the GFC. The Bank of England (BoE) is now the new regulator. In the U.K. the London FTSE 100 index added 20 points, or 0.4 per cent, to 5,237 points. The German DAX gained 15 points, or 0.3 per cent, to 6,190 points, while in France, the CAC 40 rose 14 points, or 0.1 per cent, to 3,676 points.

    IMF has confirmed that Asia’s regional economy is growing so fast that it will rival long-standing economic powers of the U.S. and Europe in the next five years, they went on to say Asia is set to expand 50 per cent in the next five years. In Asia the Nikkei index of the Tokyo Stock Exchange gained 2% to end at 10,067. The benchmark Hang Seng Index was flat at 20,062, and China was closed again for a public holiday.

    Oil prices rose above US$77 a barrel overnight as U.S. gasoline inventories fall and on a stronger euro bolstered investor confidence. Benchmark crude NYMEX for July delivery rose US$0.73  to settle at US$77.67 a barrel. Copper prices finished a six day gain but remains around the critical $US3.00 a pound. Copper for July delivery fell 9 cents to settle at $US2.9955 a pound. Gold fell with August gold down $US3.90 to settle at $US1,230.50 an ounce.

    Markets Overview

    US Markets End Flat; Spanish Banks to be “Stress Tested”

    SP500: flat at 1,115 – Above 200 day Moving Average
    DOW up 0.1% at 10,409 – Above 10,000
    NASDAQ: flat at 2,306

    Dollar Index: lower at 86.17 on Higher Euro
    A$ lower at 86.31

    FTSE: up 0.4% at 5,238 – Financials Weigh
    DAX up 0.8% – Still in Outperforming

    CHINA: was closed
    HSI  flat at 20,06

    Oil: up 0.5% ($77.76)
    BP $US20 billion Fund

    Gold: down 0.2% at ($1,231)
    Commodities Lower

    SPI: Above key Level 4500 ASX
    SPI up 0.1% at 4,566

    ASX News Today

    The SPI Futures is above the key level of 4500 the ASX is set to open flat as the SPI closed up 6 points (or 0.1%) at 4,566.   Key levels today are 4500 and 4650. Expect our market to trade flat. The government remains steadfast on the 40% RSPT tax.

    AUD – lower at 86.31.

    AMC – Amcor has bought a US plastic packaging business for $326 million as the company targets health care and food related industries for growth.  UBS has downgraded Amcor to Neutral from Buy, target $6.75, saying “AMC faces considerable macroeconomic headwinds in Europe which, despite being defensive now, represents 40% of earnings”.

    BHP – BHP Billiton Ltd, Rio Tinto Ltd and Xstrata all say the federal government is yet to indicate whether their key concerns with a proposed new tax will be reviewed.

    CEY – Thai-based Banpu increased its stake to just below the takeover threshold, in the miner to become its largest shareholder.

    CPL – Coalspur Mines announced a deal to acquire new coal leases next to its Hinton project in Canada.

    GPG- Guinness Peat Group is planning a restructure throuth a demerger of GPG Australia from the parent group.

    NWS- British Sky Broadcasting has rebuffed a buyout offer from News Corp, that values the company at $20.6 billion, but
    is open to a sweetened bid.

    POS- the nickel explorer said it had identified seven new targets at its Windarra project in WA.

    QBE- says FY10 has been tough with tight insurance margins and higher than usual larg losses.

    RIO- plans to invest $US550 million developing its Kennecott Eagle nickel and copper mine in the U.S., after it received environmental approvals for the project.  The S&P’s Ratings Services lifted its outlook on Rio to positive now BBB+), saying metals and minerals prices have rebounded
    after a severe downturn in 2008, and noting the company had reduced its debt.

    Economic Reports out today:

    ANZ – CEO of Asia is to speak in Melbourne.
    ACC – Australia Chamber of Commerce to release data for industrial trends.
    Melbourne Institute to  report on June Household Savings and Investment

    Market volatility will continue near term, some speculative accumulation is underway.
    We the suggest trading strategy is to tighten stops. Be prepared to take profits as we are trading into the end of the financial year.

    Market Summary

    ASX – to open flat
    US & UK/Europe – flat

    US ADRs – Broadly Negative!!!…

    BHP down 0.5% & RIO down 0.7%; AWC down 0.9%
    ANZ flat & NAB up 2.2%
    NEM up  3.6%, JHX down 2.1%, NWS down 2.4%

    Commodities Stock Index down 0.3%
    Gold Stocks Index up 1.2%
    Oil Stocks Index down 0.2%

    By Michael Hevern
    Head of MDS Financial Research

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    KRudd ready to compromise on mining tax: The Australian

    Wednesday, June 16th, 2010

    The Australian is reporting that the Rudd government is ready to negotiate on the super-profits tax, with Queensland’s coal-seam gas industry at the forefront of discussions.

    The article also suggests the ‘one size fits all’ approach to imposing the 40 per cent profit tax could be changed, with “greenfields” industries such as coal-seam gas, offshore gas and petroleum projects being treated differently to lower-value mining industries like quarrying.

    Mining companies vs the governnment

    Wesfarmers yesterday wrote a letter to all WES shareholders regarding the proposed Resource Super Profits Tax.

    The tussle between the government and Australia’s mining companies will no doubt continue for some time.

    FMG – Fortescue Metals
    BHP – BHP Billiton
    RIO – Rio Tinto

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    Tuesday, 15th June 2010 Morning Wrap

    Tuesday, June 15th, 2010

    Morning Market Wrap

    European markets were higher; US markets lead lower by Financials and Energy;

    US stocks sold off from midday as the Greek Credit Rating is downgraded and fears over banking regulation took hold on the Finance sector.  Most markets are still trading below their 200 day moving average.  BP continues to be sold off ahead of facing congress and decisions on their dividend payment.

    The SPI Futures is above the key level of 4500 the ASX is set to open cautiously higher as the SPI closed up 5 points (or 0.1%) at 4,531.  Key levels today are 4450 and 4600. Expect our market to open cautiously higher.  Note that the Federal Government is reported to be close to offering a compromise to miners over its super profits  tax, according to the Sydney Morning Herald today.

    The Moody’s Rating Agency downgraded Greek credit rating to Ba1 from A3 citing “macroeconomis and implementation risks are substantial”.  Greece is already rated as junk Bond status by the Standard & Poors Ratings Agency.  This sparked concerns by investors that the European “contagion” may spread. The Dow fell 20 points, or 0.2 per cent, to 10,191,  while in the broader market the S&P 500 index lost 1.97 points, or 0.18 per cent, to 1,090, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq end 0.02 per cent higher at 2,244.

    European markets ended the day higher following a report that the industrial production in the EU countries grew more than expected in April.  This saw the euro above $US1.22 for the first time since 4th June.  In the U.K. the London FTSE 100 index added 39 points, or 0.74 per cent, to 5,202 points, however BP continued to fall,  down 9.3 per cent.  The German DAX gained 77 points, or 1.28 per cent, to 6,125 points, while in France, the CAC 40 rose 70 points, or 1.98 per cent, to 3,626 points.

    In Asia the Nikkei index of the Tokyo Stock Exchange gained 174 points, or 1.8 per cent, to end at 9,879.   The benchmark Hang Seng Index jumped 179 points, or 0.9 per cent, to 20,051, and China was closed for a public holiday.

    Oil prices rose above US$75 a barrel overnight as rallying stock markets and a stronger euro bolstered investor confidence. Benchmark crude NYMEX for July delivery rose US$1.34 to settle at US$75.12 a barrel.  Copper prices rallied for a fifth day toward the critical $US3.00 a pound,  after a new report showed Europe’s economy might not be hurting from mounting deficits as much as previously foreshadowed. Copper for July delivery rose 8.8 cents, or three per cent, to settle at $US2.99 a pound. Gold dropped on the lower US Dollar. August gold fell $US5.70 to settle at $US1,224.50 an ounce.

    Markets Overview

    US Markets Lead Lower by Financials and Energy; European Markets were Higher

    SP500: steady at 1,089 – Above “Flash Crash” Lows (up 2.5% for week)
    DOW down 0.% at 10,191 – Above 10,000  (up 2.6% for week)
    NASDAQ: flat at 2,244 (up 1.3% for week)

    Dollar Index: lower at 86.66 on Higher Euro
    A$ lower at 85.76 (above 10-month Lows)

    FTSE: up 0.7% at 5,202 – Energy & Financials Weigh (up 1.6% for week)
    DAX up 1.3% – Still in Uptrend   (up 3.3% for week)

    CHINA: up 0.3% at 2,569 – 13-month Lows as Suport becomes Resistance (down 3.2% for week)
    HSI up 0.1% at 20,051 (up 1.2% for week)

    Oil: up 2.1% ($75.21) (up 4.8% for week)
    Short Covering Rally in Energy

    Gold: down 1.0% at ($1,220) (up 0.6% for week)
    Commodities Higher

    SPI: Above key Level 4500 ASX
    SPI up 0.1% at 4,531

    ASX News

    The SPI Futures is above the key level of 4500 the ASX is set to open cautiously higher as the SPI closed up 5 points (or 0.1%) at 4,531. Key levels today are 4450 and 4600. Expect our market to cautiously higher.  Note the Federal Government is reported to be close to offering a compromise to miners over its super profits  tax, according to the Sydney Morning Herald today.

    AUD – higher at 85.76, above 10 months lows.

    ASX – the Stock exchange operator has committed approximately $32 million to the construction of a new data centre.

    CPR – Clive Peter’s will close more than a third of its stores.

    CTX – last week was upgraded to Buy by UBS, expecting better-than-expected profit.

    MQG – has been named as one of the underwriters for the Agricultural Bank of China’s proposed IPO, which received approval from Chinese regulators on Wednesday and could raise between $24.72 and $37.08 billion.

    WDC – preparing to launch a Australia’s first virtual shopping centre.

    TCL – the tollroad operator said it completed its $542.3 million equity raising Thursday, however retail investors largely shunned the offer to help fund its $630.5 million acquisition of Sydney’s Lane Cove Tunnel with only 5% uptake from eligible retail investors. TCL said the 27.8 million new securities not taken up by retail investors in the 1-for-11 entitlement offer, failed to achieve the A$4.60 clearance price under a bookbuild and will be taken up by underwriters UBS and sub-underwriters to the issue.

    Economic Reports out today:

    RBA – to release June meeting minutes.
    RBA -  to release April Credit/Debit card data
    ABS – to release lending finance data

    Market volatility will continue near term, some speculative accumulation is underway.
    We think the trading strategy is to tighten stops. Be prepared to open/hold short positions, look for value stocks.

    Market Summary

    ASX – to open cautiously higher
    US & UK/Europe – Generally Positive Leads

    US ADRs – Mixed!!!…

    BHP up 0.9% & RIO up 1.5%; AWC up 0.7%
    ANZ up 1.5% & NAB up 2.7%
    NEM down 2.3%, JHX up 1.9%, NWS down 0.9%

    Commodities Stock Index dow 0.5%
    Gold Stocks Index down 1.7%
    Oil Stocks Index down 0.3%

    By Michael Hevern
    Head of Research

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    Wednesday, 9th June 2010 Morning Wrap

    Wednesday, June 9th, 2010

    Morning Market Wrap

    Bernanke says US Will Avoid Double Dip Recession; Mixed Leads for ASX Today

    Bargain hunters stepped in late in the US session pushing the Dow Jones higher, ending a two-day slump which had sent the market tumbling 4.3%.  Financials still lagged the market, while gold traded at new highs.

    The SPI Futures is below the key level of 4500 the ASX is set to open higher as the SPI closed up 55 points (or 1.3%) at 4,384. Key levels today are 4350 and 4450. Expect our market to continue its recovery, as U.S. and U.K. give mixed signals.

    Overseas Overview

    The late rally in the US saw the Financials and Energy sectors lead the way, up 2.1% and up 1.7% respectively, however the hi-tech Nasdaq failed to join in the party as the chipmakers were downgraded.  The market sentiment was buoyed by the Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke saying he did not expect the economy to go back into recession. The Dow closed 123 points higher, by 1.26 per cent, at 9,940, while the S&P 500 index was up 11, or 1.1 per cent, at 1,062 and the Nasdaq fell 3 points, by 0.15 percent, at 2,170.

    European stocks continued to be weighed down by sovereign debt concerns. The Fitch ratings agency said that the U.K. is on credit watch, saying that further spending cuts (or tax hikes) will be needed for the U.K. debt to be brought down to 3% of GDP. Debt is currently running at 11% of GDP in the U.K.  BP also hurt the market as the ongoing oil spill continues in the Gulf of Mexico.  In London, the FTSE 100 ended 41 points lower, by 0.8 per cent, at 5,028, and in Europe the German DAX 30 ended down 36 points, or 0.6 per cent, at 5,868 points, while the CAC 40 ended down 33 points, or 0.98 per cent, at 3,380 points.

    Oil prices rose with NYMEX crude for July delivery rising 55 cents to $US71.99 a barrel. Gold rose to another record high above $US1,250 as investors continue to seek a safe haven.  The price of gold for August delivery jumped as high as $US1,254.50 an ounce in early trading before pulling back slightly. Gold ended the day up $4.80 at $US1,245.60 an ounce. Contracts for July silver rose 31.5 cents to settle $US18.477 an ounce. Copper traded narrowly rising 1.35 cents to settle at $US2.779 a pound.

    Key Overseas Drivers

    Fed Chairman, Ben Bernanke says he does not expect the economy to go back into recession
    U.S. rise led by Miners, Financials and Energy stocks as bargain hunters step in.
    U.K. facing ratings downgrades on debt concerns. Gold trades at new record highs above $US1,250.

    Markets Overview

    Markets Mixed in the U.K. Financials and Energy Weighed in the U.S. Financials and Miners and Energy rise.

    SP500: up 1.1% at 1,062 – Just Below “Flash Crash” Lows
    DOW up 1.3% at 9,940 – Below 10,000
    NASDAQ: down 0.2% at 2,170

    Dollar Index: higher at 88.11 on Lower Euro
    A$ lower at 82.73 (above 10-month Lows)

    FTSE: down 0.8% at 5,028 – Fitch Ratings says more severe spending cuts are necessary
    DAX down -0.6% – Still in Uptrend

    CHINA: flat at 2,514 – 13-month Lows as Suport becomes Resistance
    HSI up 0.6% at 19,487

    Oil: up 1.4% ($71.99)
    BP Makes Progress on Oil spill in Gulf of Mexico

    Gold: down 0.3% at ($1,236)
    Commodities Mixed

    SPI: Below 4500 ASX
    SPI up 1.3% at 4384

    ASX Key Drivers

    The SPI Futures is below the key level of 4500 the ASX is set to open higer as the SPI closed up 55 points (or 1.3%) at 4,384. Key levels today are 4350 and 4450. Expect our market to continue its recovery as U.S. and U.K. give mixed signals.

    AUD – recovers to 82.73, above 10 months lows.

    ASX – The government says approval for a competing stock exchange will not be given until the transfer of supervisory power from the Australian Securities Exchange to the coporate regulator in August.

    BHP – CEO Marius Kloppers meets secretly with Kevin Rudd re RSPT tax.

    ELD – unable to finalise bank finance from the Rural Bank for potential investors in the Elders Forestry 2010 MIS (managed investment scheme) project

    GBG – Gindalbie it will be spending $1 billion for the construction and development work at its Karara iron ore project within months.

    GOLD – hits record highs above $US1,250.

    HSP – US-based Tenet Healthcare Corp has withdrawn its $1.84 billion bid for the private hospitals operator and pathology.  Leaving two bids outstanding.

    NCM – Newcrest has completed the due diligence process for its proposed takeover of rival Lihir Gold.

    VBA – JV partners wanted for international routes.

    Economic Reports out today:

    ABS – to release April housing finance data
    CSI – Westpac’s June Consumer Sentiment Survey
    QLD – Budget luncheon
    RBA – Glenn Stevens to address Western Sydney Business Connection

    Market volatility will continue near term, some bargain hunting is underway.

    We the suggest trading strategy is to tighten stops. Be prepared to open/hold short positions, look fo value stocks.

    MARKET SUMMAY

    ASX – to continue recovery
    US & UK/Europe – mixed leads

    US ADRs – Broadly Higher!!!…

    BHP up 5.4% & RIO up 3.7%; AWC up 5.1%
    ANZ up 5.7% & NAB up 3.8%
    NEM up 2.3%, JHX up 0.2%, NWS up 1.6%

    Commodities Stock Index up 1.5%
    Gold Stocks Index up 2.3%
    Oil Stocks Index up 0.7%

    By Michael Hevern
    Head of Research

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