Posts Tagged ‘investors’

  • Monday, 27 April 2009 MDS Morning Wrap

    Monday, April 27th, 2009

    Presented by Michael Hevern
    MDSFinancial

    Click here to watch the presentation.

    or

    Click here to download the mp3 audio recording (1228Kb).

    General Advice Only

    *************************************************
    In this morning s wrap

    DOW: up 1.5% (flat for week)
    Ford (1Q09 $US1.4bn Loss Better Than Expected)
    Reporting Season Mid Point

    NASDAQ: up 2.6% (up 1% for week)
    Breakout
    Microsoft up 10.5%

    FTSE: up 3.4% (up 1.3% for week)
    Retail Sales Positive Surprise ;
    DAX up 1.5% & CAC up 3.6%

    NIKKEI: down 1.6%(down 2.2% for week)
    BoJ Says Economy to Contract up to 4%
    Hang Seng up 0.3%

    Oil: down 1% – At $51 (flat for week)
    US Dollar Lower

    Gold: up 1.1% ($913) (up 4.8% for week)
    Commodities Higher;
    USD Lower

    SPI up 43 (1.2%)
    SPI: Critical Levels: 3800 & 3600
    Swine Flu at Aussie Doorstep

    ASX News
    WPL set to raise $1.4bn (from US)
    LNN- Kirin offers $4.7bn bid (@$12.22 +47%) for 54% stake
    Interim Earnings this week: NAB tomorrow then later in the week ANZ,WBC,MQG
    OZL sells Indonesian Martable gold & silver ($296m)
    MAP Sydney Airport see fall in traffic, and is to defer $90m projects for 18 months
    BTA one to benefit from swine flu out break
    Financials to be flat ahead of earnings updates
    Golds to support
    ASX to open higher; US higher on Ford report

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    Andrew Symonds gets caught in the Storm

    Tuesday, April 21st, 2009

    Andrew Symonds is making news in the Business pages today.

    A statement from a former Storm Financial executive alleges that when Roy borrowed $1 million to invest in Storm, he provided a signed cricket bat in exchange for the Commonwealth Bank waiving a transaction fee.

    The CBA has denied giving Symonds any special treatment, but the same executive claims it s a sign of the close relationship that existed between the failed wealth advisor and the Commonwealth Bank.

    Symonds is thought to be one of thousands of investors hit hard by Storm Financial s collapse. A class action against Storm and its business partners is currently being prepared by Slater & Gordon.

    For more info:

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    BrisCon holders avoiding payment

    Friday, April 17th, 2009

    Humphrey B. Bear appears to be liable for paying the next BrisConnections instalment payment, as do a range of non-existent people.

    In a dash to avoid having to pay $1 for every unity held, many shareholders are using the off-market share transfer system to move ownership of the shares to false names, and to people living overseas.

    The Sydney Morning Herald describes the scheme as a way to launder money and hide shareholdings, and demonstrated this last year by successfully transferring a share to a budgie.

    In any case, BrisConnections faces a tough task in recovering the money due, and may resort to claiming the assets of those shareholders it can identify.

    In a bizarre co-incidence, the real Humphrey B. Bear is making the news today for other reasons. Banksia Productions, responsible for bringing us Here s Humphrey, has been ordered by the courts to wind up, which could force the bear and his plaid waistcoat into retirement after a 44-year career.

    For more info

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    Friday 17th April 2009 MDS Morning Wrap

    Friday, April 17th, 2009

    Presented by Michael Hevern
    MDSFinancial

    Click here to watch the presentation.

    or

    Click here to download the mp3 audio recording (1075Kb).

    General Advice Only

    *************************************************
    In this morning s wrap

    DOW: up 1.2% – Above 8000
    JPM Results Promising;

    NASDAQ: up 2.7%
    SUN Back in the Spotlight;
    Google Does Not Disappoint

    FTSE: up 2.1% – Above 4000
    Financials Lead;
    DAX up 1.6% & CAC up 1.8%

    NIKKEI: flat +0.1%
    Citi to Sell Japanese Broking Arm $US5bn;
    China March Growth 6%;
    Hang Seng down 0.6%

    Oil: down 0.6% – At $49
    US Inventories
    Highest since 1990

    Gold: down 1.8% ($879)
    Commodities Lower;
    USD Higher

    SPI up 40 (1.1%);
    SPI: Critical Levels: 3800 & 3600

    ASX News
    TLS Future Fund lobbies for new chairman
    BSL – may tap the market again
    GNS – $2.2bn pulp mill deal get closer
    LEI loses Dubai Airport project
    Materials to weigh on lower commodities
    Golds to sell off
    Financials to see recovery
    ASX to open higher US higher on JPM report

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    White knight claims check mate

    Wednesday, April 15th, 2009

    Nicholas Bolton has gained $4.5 million, and a few angry enemies.

    His dramatic last-minute sell-out, negotiated last week but only revealed to BrisConnections shareholders yesterday, effectively leaves retail investors high and dry, potentially liable to pay a $1 per unit instalment payment for each share held, many of which would have been bought at a fraction of a cent.

    Alan Bond s former bankruptcy advisor is threatening a class action against Mr Bolton.

    Shareholders were furious at being called to an extraordinary meeting when the outcome had already been determined though that was not made clear until well into the four-hour meeting. BrisConnections chairman Trevor Rowe bore the brunt of their anger, and was forced to admit he d known about the deal since Saturday.

    In the Courier Mail today, Terry McCrann notes that while Bolton s Australian Style Investments is also liable for the instalment payments, which given his large stake would amount to $154 million, it is Bolton s other company, Australian Style Holdings, which has pocketed the $4.5 million payoff. Very clever indeed.

    The influx of cash should come as great news to Bolton s busy hairdresser and stylist.

    For an abridged history of the whole intriguing escapade, read Kevin Chinnery s article in today s AFR.

    And for further insight:
    The Age: Stunned investors vent fury at chairman

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    Old dog, new tricks – Protecting Profits

    Wednesday, April 15th, 2009

    With the big run up in the markets over the past three weeks (S&P500 up 20%) it may be time to protect those profits. Obviously the concern is that you may miss out on further upside if you sell out now, but at the same time you do not want to give back your hard earned and as yet unrealised profits.

    To protect profits your options are:

    1. Sell stock holding now but will miss out on any price upside.
    2. Sell calls over your stock (covered call) limits upside and only gives limited protection to the downside.
    3. Buy puts (protective put) protection of unrealized profits at a cost.

    Combination of the Above Options (The Collar Strategy)
    There is an options strategy called a collar that is designed to protect your profits. The primary concern in employing a collar is protection of profits accrued from underlying shares rather than increasing returns on the upside.

    A collar can be established by holding shares of an underlying stock, purchasing a protective put and writing a covered call on that stock. The option portions of this strategy are referred to as a combination.
    The collar is an option strategy which combines a covered call with a protective put:

    1. Covered Call – In the covered call you agree to sell your stock at the call strike price. For this you receive a premium (at the time you sell the call). The drawback with this strategy is that you are limiting your profits to the level of the strike price of the sold call.
    2. Protective Put – With the protective put you are buying protection for your holdings. For this protection you pay out a premium, which gives you the right to sell your stock holdings at the put strike price.

    Market View
    The collar strategy is used when market view is Neutral, following a time of market appreciation.

    Aim of Collar Strategy
    An investor will employ this strategy after accruing unrealised profits from the underlying shares, and wants to protect these gains with the purchase of a protective put. At the same time, the investor is willing to sell his stock at a price higher than current market price so an out-of-the-money call contract is written, covered in this case by the underlying stock.

    Advantages of Using the Collar
    This strategy offers the stock protection of a put. However, in return for accepting a limited upside profit potential on his underlying shares (to the call strike price), the investor writes a call contract. Because the premium received from writing the call can offset the cost of the put the investor is obtaining downside put protection at a smaller net cost than the cost of the put alone. In some cases, depending on the strike prices and the expiration month chosen, the premium received from writing the call will be more than the cost of the put.

    In other words, the combination can sometimes be established for a net credit – the investor receives cash for establishing the position. The investor keeps the cash credit regardless of the price of the underlying stock when the options expire. Until the investor either exercises his put and sells the underlying stock or is assigned an exercise notice on the written call and is obligated to sell his stock, all rights of stock ownership are retained.

    Before Expiration – Roll/Close Position
    The combination may be closed out as a unit just as it was established as a unit. To do this, the investor enters a combination order to buy a call with the same contract and sell a put with the same contract terms, paying a net debit or receiving a net cash credit as determined by current option prices in the marketplace.

    Actions at expiration:

    1. If the underlying stock price is between the put and call strike prices when the options expire, the options will generally expire with no value. The investor will retain ownership of the underlying shares and can either sell them or hedge them again with new option contracts.
    2. If the stock price is below the put strike price as the options expire, the put will be in-the-money and have value, while the call option will expire worthless. The investor can elect to either sell the put before the close of the market on the option’s last trading day and receive cash, or exercise the put and sell the underlying shares at the put strike price.
    3. If the stock price is above the call strike price as the options expire, the sold call will be in-the-money and the investor can expect assignment to sell the underlying shares at the strike price, while the put option will expire worthless. Otherwise, if retaining ownership of the shares is now desired, the investor can close out the sold call position by purchasing a call with the same contract terms before the close of trading.

    Worked Examples

    1) April collar over Westpac (WBC)
    You may trade a Collar over Westpac for April protected with a 1950 April Put and with profit limited with a 2050 April Call. There are three scenarios on exercise day:

    i) Westpac trading above $20.50 on 23-Apr. This would provide an exercised return of 3.2%.

    ii) Westpac trading below $19.50 on 23-Apr. This would result in an exercised loss of 3.2%.

    iii) Westpac trading between $19.50 and $20.50 on 23-Apr. The protection would have cost you 2.0% and you can open a new collar for May (noting XDIV due in May).

    Therefore you can expect returns (with your position protected for 23 days) of between 3.2% and a loss of 3.2% depending on the stock price on the exercise day (see the payoff diagram below).

    Table: Returns for an April collar over WBC.

    Figure: Payoff Diagram for an April collar over WBC (Source Market Analyser).

    2) May collar over Westpac (WBC)

    You may trade a Collar over Westpac for May protected with a 1950 May Put and with profit limited with a 2050 May Call. There are three scenarios on exercise day:

    iv) Westpac trading above $20.50 on 23-Apr. This would provide an exercised return of 0.1% (excluding dividends).
    v) Westpac trading below $19.50 on 23-Apr. This would result in an exercised loss of 7.7% excluding dividends).
    vi) Westpac trading between $19.50 and $20.50 on 23-Apr. The protection would have cost you 5.1% and you can open a new collar for June (excluding dividends).

    Therefore you can expect returns excluding dividends (with your position protected for 58 days) of between 0.1% and a loss of 7.7% depending on the stock price on the exercise day (see the payoff diagram below). Refer to the next section showing the impact of the dividend.

    Table: Returns for a May collar over WBC (excluding dividend).

    Figure: Payoff Diagram for a May collar over WBC (Source Market Analyser).

    3) May collar over Westpac (WBC) – Sweetener Upcoming Dividend Season

    Table: Returns for a May collar over WBC (including dividend).

    Note: Assumption for dividend is for XDIV at 19-May-09 of 55 cents.

    You may trade a Collar over Westpac for May protected with a 1950 May Put and with profit limited with a 2050 May Call. The three scenarios on exercise day are the same as before, however returns improve considerably when you include dividend.

    You can expect returns including dividends (with your position protected for 58 days) of between 2.9% and a loss of 4.9% depending on the stock price on the exercise day (see the payoff diagram below).

    Conclusion
    The Collar Options strategy provides you with protection at a price, but if you have significant unrealised gains or want to take advantage of the upcoming dividend season this strategy can provide you with a limited risk way of holding stock positions in this volatile market environment.

    By Michael Hevern

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    Wednesday 8th April 2009 MDS Morning Wrap

    Wednesday, April 8th, 2009

    Presented by Michael Hevern
    MDSFinancial

    Click here to watch the presentation.

    or

    Click here to download the mp3 audio recording (813Kb).

    General Advice Only

    *************************************************
    In this morning s wrap

    DOW: up 0.6%
    Fed says Banks are Healthy;
    Trade Deficit Better-than-Expected

    NASDAQ: down 0.9%
    Intel (#1 Chip Maker) 1Q09 Better
    But Profit still down 55%

    FTSE: down 0.2%
    Financials & Miners Weigh; Unemployment at 2.2m
    DAX down 0.3% & CAC down 0.5%

    NIKKEI: down 1.6%
    Nissan to Cut CAPEX;
    Toyota Cuts Production by 28% in 2009

    Oil: up 0.6% ($59)
    Six Month Highs

    Gold: up 1.1% ($922)
    Commodities Higher;
    USD Lower

    SPI up 20 (0.5%)
    SPI: Critical Levels: 4000 & 3800
    Resistance Becomes Support?

    ASX News
    Budget $22bn spend on infrastructure $58bn deficit (9000/person); Keeps AAA Rating
    Inflation 1.75%; Unemployment 8.5%
    FXJ F/cast 27% fall in profits (ad revenue)
    SGP to raise $1.5bn (`20% disc ~$2.60)
    AWB downgrades 1H09 profit F/cast (Brazil problems)
    FMG say NO to Shanghai listing speculation
    OSH says profits lower if Oil price subdued
    Materials, Financials to recover
    Golds and Energy provide support
    ASX to open higher; US mixed

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    Rio s secret rights issue plan

    Monday, April 6th, 2009

    According to British media, Rio Tinto is planning an $8 billion rights issue as a backup plan, if the Chinalco deal falls through.

    An article in the Times Online has it that Rio has had this contingency plan in place since February, and suggests this backup source of income will boost the confidence of investors. Intriguing!

    Rio Tinto s plan to sell strategic mining assets to Chinalco has faced considerable opposition from major shareholders and from the government s Foreign Investment Review Board, but the share price has nonetheless been on the rise since December.

    Click here to read the full article.

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    Friday 27th March 2009 MDS Morning Wrap

    Friday, March 27th, 2009

    Presented by Michael Hevern
    MDS Financial

    Click here to watch the presentation.

    or

    Click here to download the mp3 audio recording (919Kb).

    General Advice Only

    *************************************************
    In this morning s wrap

    DOW: up 2.3% – Breakout?
    Growing Unemployment Rate Slowing;
    Best Buys Upbeat on Earnings

    NASDAQ: up 3.8%
    Uptrend Holding;
    Continues to Outperform;

    FTSE: up 0.6% – Resistance!
    Miners and Financials Recover;
    DAX down 1.4% & CAC flat (-0.07%)

    NIKKEI: up 1.8%
    $US10bn Fund To Aid Real Estate;
    Hang Seng up 3.6%

    Oil: up 2.2% – At $54
    US Improving Sentiment
    Despite Weakening Demand

    Gold: up 0.4% ($939)
    Commodities Lower;
    Amid Talk of World Currency

    SPI: Critical Levels: 3740 & 3540
    SPI up 44 (1.2%);
    ASX200 Just Above Resistance
    ASX200 is up 5.3% for the week and 16% for the past 3 weeks

    ASX News
    * Options settlements will add to volatility early
    * RIO up significantly overnight
    * Energy continue up
    * Financials may see profit taking/covered calls
    * ASX to open up US higher;
    * We may see profit taking in afternoon being Friday

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    Wednesday 25th March 2009 MDS Morning Wrap

    Wednesday, March 25th, 2009

    Presented by Michael Hevern
    MDS Financial

    Click here to watch the presentation.

    or

    Click here to download the mp3 audio recording (1052Kb).

    General Advice Only

    *************************************************
    In this morning s wrap

    DOW: down 1.5% – Breakout?
    Market Digests Impact of Public Private
    Investment Program (PPIP)

    NASDAQ: down 2.5%
    Profit Taking

    FTSE: down 1% – Breakout?
    Miners and Financials see Profit Taking;
    DAX up 0.3% & CAC up 0.2%

    NIKKEI: up 3.3%
    Deflation Looms Consumer Prices Stalled;
    Hang Seng up 2%

    Oil: down 0.4% – Above $53
    PPIPs $1T to Stimulate
    World economies

    Gold: down 3% ($937)
    Commodities Down
    USD Up

    SPI: Critical Levels: 3640 & 3440
    SPI down 25;
    ASX200 At Resistance

    ASX News
    * GCL cashed up; in play says NHC chairman
    * NAB Chief to address Chamber of Commerce
    * ORL 1H09 profit up 20%; Rev up 11%; cost cuts
    * Energy and Gold stock to weaken
    * Financials to see profit taking
    * RBA Glen Stevens to speak tonight
    * ASX to open flat US Fed printing money

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