Posts Tagged ‘gold price’

Stock Market Analysis: Traders Speculate On Continued US Fed Stimulus

Wednesday, June 19th, 2013

*  US stock markets rise for a second session, as investors speculate on Fed stimulus continuing.
*  European stocks markets edged modestly higher, still recovering from their longest losing streak in 14-months.
*  Asian stock markets are expected to see some recovery today on the back of positive leads from the US and Europe.
*  Commodities prices were lower, Gold prices are trading around $US1,366 while crude-oil closed around $US98.

The Aussie market is looking open higher again today, with the 4850 level now key, as stock prices rebounded in Europe and in the US overnight.  The banks are leading the way.  It is index options expiry tomorrow.

SPI Futures is trading around the key level of 4850, ending up 0.7% (or  35 points) at 4,855. The key levels for the ASX200 index today are 4820 to 4900.

TEMP

S&P500 within 1% of May peak, 50-day moving average is key near-term.

US Markets

US stock markets rise for a second session, as investors speculate on the prospect that the Federal Reserve will confirm the fate of monetary stimulus after its meeting today.

The three benchmark indexes all ended up around 0.9% for the session. The Dow Jones rebounded towards the 15,300 level, while the S&P500 rose to around the 1650 level. The 50-day moving average levels have held, as the “buy-on-the-dip” mentality is being rewarded yet again. The S&P500 is now only 1% below its May peak. All ten S&P sectors ended in the green, with gains led by the Industrials and Consumer Discretionary sectors up over 1.1%, closely followed by the Technology, Materials and Financials sectors all up around 0.7%.

Traders continued to buy ahead of the Fed meeting speculating that concerns over the Fed “tapering” are premature as the economy is still in need of stimulus, particularly as the effects of sequestration are still apparent. Investors will be keen to see “effective communication” on the Fed’s stimulus exit strategy as a result of the meeting.

In economic data housing figures missed estimates as a Commerce Department report showed that housing starts climbed 6.8 percent in May to a 914,000 annualized rate after a revised 856,000 pace in April (below the 950,00 forecast), while applications to build one family homes increased 1.3 percent, the fastest since May 2008.

For the session Dow Jones closed up 0.9% at 15,318, the S&P500 closed up 0.8% at 1,652, and the NASDAQ closed up 0.9% at 3,482.

European Markets

European stocks markets edged modestly higher, still recovering from their longest losing streak in 14-months. The Europe Stoxx 600 ended flat for the session and is now down -5.7% since US Fed hinted at tapering its stimulus.

In Germany the market edged higher as a report showed German investor confidence increased this month, with the ZEW Center for European Economic Research, reporting its index of investor and analyst expectations rose to 38.5 this month (up from 36.4), with zero the dividing line between optimism and pessimism.

In London markets the market rose for a fourth session, but investors are focusing on the defensive sector ahead of the US Fed meeting. UK stocks rallied in early morning trading due to speculation China may ease its monetary policy.

In the UK the FTSE 100 closed up 0.7% at 6,374, the German DAX 30 closed up 0.2% at 8,230, the French CAC 40 closed down -0.1% at 3,861, while the Italian market closed up 0.1% at 16,198.

Asian Markets

Asian stock markets eased yesterday, after recording their best 2-day gains since September. We expect some recovery today on the back of positive leads from the US and Europe.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index eased back -0.4% for the session, and is down -2% for the month, due to concerns over central bank “tapering”. The index is now down -9% from its May peak. Approximately $US2.7 trillion has been erased from global markets since Fed Chairman Bernanke said on 22 May US policy makers could scale back stimulus efforts if the employment outlook shows “sustainable improvement.”

The Chinese market traded higher, while in Japan and Hong Kong the markets eased. The Japanese market gave back early gains, as export stocks rose on the back of a weaker yen. A weaker yen boosts the value of overseas income at carmakers and electronics manufacturers when funds are repatriated.

Chinese stocks continued lower, remaining near 6-month lows, led by the property and materials sectors, after the Beijing government tightened rules for real estate projects to contain a rebound in home prices. The materials sector has weighed because of recent reports that showed industrial production and exports came in below forecasts and higher money market rates fueled concern about tighter liquidity.

For the session the Chinese Shanghai Composite closed up 0.1% at 2,159, the Hong Kong Hang Seng closed down 0.0% at 21,226, and the Japanese Nikkei closed down -0.2% at 13,007, while the South Korean KOSPI closed up 0.9% at 1,901.

Commodities

The Dollar Index was higher at 80.63 on a lower Euro, and the Aussie Dollar closed  down  at 0.9484. Commodities prices traded mixed.

Overnight the COMEX WTI Crude for MAY13 delivery  closed  up 0.7% at $US98.44, the COMEX Copper for May 13 delivery  closed  down -1.3% at 3.155, the COMEX Gold for JUN13 delivery  closed down -1.2% at $US1,366.90.

ASX News Today

AGL – AGL the energy retailer has won government approval to raise gas prices in NSW by 9.2 percent.

CBA – CBA was aware of forgery allegations and the overcharging of clients by a key senior financial planner at least nine months before he resigned.

ELD – Elders has rebuked a takeover bid for its rural services division by rival Ruralco.

NAB – NAB’s CEO believes Australia is not heading towards a recession, but expects economic activity to remain subdued until the September election.

NSW – the new News Corp Inc start trading today from 12 noon.

QAN – Security screening staff at Perth Airport’s Qantas terminal have extended industrial action for a fourth week, as they remain in a wage dispute with employer MSS Security.

SWJ – Chinese energy company Shandong has raised funds to buy a subsidiary of Australian gold miner Stonewall Resources.

UGL – Uniteed Group the engineering firm has secured $120 million in new contracts across its global property services business, DTZ.

Market Summary

ASX – to open higher
US & UK/Europe – higher.

US ADRs – Broadly higher!!…

ANZ -0.9%, NAB -0.9%, NWS +1.1%
BHP -1.1%, RIO +0.4%, NEM -2.5%

By Michael Hevern
D2MX Investment Advisor

For trade ideas and recommendations on how to trade in this market, sign up for a free trial of the D2MX Daily Trading Report, call 1300 610 024 or email advisory@d2mx.com.au.

 

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Stock Market Analysis: Traders Speculate US Fed Will Continue Stimulus

Tuesday, June 18th, 2013

*  US stock markets rise overnight, ahead of Fed meeting.
*  European stocks markets rose to a one week high, recovering from their longest losing streak in 14-months.
*  Asian stock markets recovered yesterday, recording  their best 2-day gains since September.
*  Commodities prices were lower, Gold prices are trading around $US1,383 while crude-oil closed around $US97.

The Aussie market is looking open higher again today, with the 4850 level now key, as stock prices rebounded in Europe and in the US overnight.  The banks are leading the way.  The RBA meeting minutes are due out today and it is index options expiry Thursday this week.

SPI Futures is trading near the key level of 4850, ending up 0.2% (or  11 points) at 4,840. The key levels for the ASX200 index today are 4860 to 4790.

TEMP

The Banks are leading the rebound, monitor the Aussie dollar for progress near-term.

US Markets

US stock markets rise overnight, ahead of Fed meeting.

The three benchmark indexes all ended up around 0.8% for the session. The Dow Jones rebounded towards the 15,200 level, while the S&P500 held around the 1630 level. The 50-day moving average levels have held, as the “buy-on-the-dip” mentality is being tested. Nine of the ten S&P sectors ended in the green, with gains led by the Energy sector up 1.4%, closely followed by the Technology, Materuals and Financials sectors all up over 0.9%.

Traders bought up ahead of the Fed meeting speculating that concerns over the Fed “tapering” are premature as the economy is still in need of stimulus, particularly as the effects of sequestration are still apparent. Investors will be keen to see “effective communication” on the Fed’s stimulus exit strategy as a result of the meeting.

In economic data a report showed that manufacturing in the New York, northern New Jersey and southern Connecticut region unexpectedly increased to  7.84 in June (up from -1.4), a reading below zero indicates contraction.  In commodities crude oil reached a new four-month high.

For the session Dow Jones closed up 0.7% at 15,180, the S&P500 closed up 0.8% at 1,639, and the NASDAQ closed up 0.8% at 3,452.

European Markets

European stocks markets rose to a one week high, recovering from their longest losing streak in 14-months.

The Europe Stoxx 600 rose 0.7% for the session, its first successive session gains this month. Gains were led by the gauge of European telecommunications companies up 1.6%. The index has pared its gains to around 3% for the year, after retreating over -5.6% from its May peak. The MSCI All-Country World index had risen 20% since the November lows, through to its May peak and has now retreated around -4%, as the Japanese market has entered bear territory.

The Group of Eight (G8) leaders are meeting in Northern Ireland today for a 2-day summit, with discussions expected to concentrate on boosting trade between the US and the European Union, after EU governments last week gave the European Commission a mandate for the negotiations.

In Germany the market bounced, finishing well off last week’s lows. In London markets the market rose for a third session, but investors are focusing on the defensive sector ahead of the US Fed meeting.

In the UK the FTSE 100 closed up 0.4% at 6,330, the German DAX 30 closed up 1.1% at 8,216, the French CAC 40 closed up 1.5% at 3,864, while the Italian market closed up 0.3% at 16,194.

Asian Markets

Asian stock markets recovered yesterday, recording their best 2-day gains since September.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index recovered 1.2% for the session, recouping the losses of last week, but is still down -2% for the month, due to concerns over central bank “tapering”. The index is now down -9% from its May peak.

The Hong Kong and Japanese markets recovered from last week’s sell-off, which sent the Japanese market into bear market territory (down over -20% from its recent peaks). The Hong Kong market has also recently been one of the worst performing in the region’s major markets.

The Japanese sentiment was helped as Nomura Holdings and Fidelity Worldwide advised buying Japanese shares. Nomura, Japan’s largest brokerage house said “assuming that Abenomics has not been defeated, we see no reason to become bearish on Japanese stocks, and recommend a bullish stance”

Chinese stocks continued lower, remaining near 6-month lows, led by the property and materials sectors, after the Beijing government tightened rules for real estate projects to contain a rebound in home prices.

The materials sector has weighed because of recent reports that showed industrial production and exportscame in below forecasts and higher money market rates fueled concern about tighter liquidity.

For the session the Chinese Shanghai Composite closed down -0.3% at 2,156, the Hong Kong Hang Seng closed up 1.2% at 21,226, and the Japanese Nikkei closed up 2.7% at 13,033, while the South Korean KOSPI closed down -0.3% at 1,883.

Commodities

The Dollar Index was higher at 80.63 on a lower Euro, and the Aussie Dollar closed down at 0.9545. Commodities prices traded lower.

Overnight the COMEX WTI Crude for MAY13 delivery closed down -0.1% at $US97.77, the COMEX Copper for May 13 delivery closed down -0.1% at 3.198, the COMEX Gold for JUN13 delivery closed down -0.3% at $US1,383.10.

ASX News Today

AGL – AGL the energy retailer has won government approval to raise gas prices in NSW by 9.2 percent.

CBA – CBA was aware of forgery allegations and the overcharging of clients by a key senior financial planner at least nine months before he resigned.

NAB – NAB’s CEO believes Australia is not heading towards a recession, but expects economic activity to remain subdued until the September election.

LLC – Lend Lease has revealed it will undergo a major restructure its construction and infrastructure businessesas the construction sector softens.

SKE – Skilled Group the employment services firm,is paying $75.5 million for a Darwin-based marine contractor with oil and gas sector clients.

TLS – Work on Telstra pits containing asbestos will only resume when employees and contractors have been trained on the safe handling and removal of asbestos, Workplace Relations Minister Bill Shorten says.

Market Summary

ASX – to open higher
US & UK/Europe – higher.

US ADRs – Broadly higher!!…

ANZ +3.0%, NAB +2.6%, NWS -0.1%
BHP +0.8%, RIO +1.4%, NEM +0.8%

By Michael Hevern
D2MX Investment Advisor

For trade ideas and recommendations on how to trade in this market, sign up for a free trial of the D2MX Daily Trading Report, call 1300 610 024 or email advisory@d2mx.com.au.

 

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Stock Market Analysis: Markets Set For Cautious Start

Monday, June 17th, 2013

*  US stock markets end the week lower, ahead of Fed meeting.
*  European stocks markets ended lower, still hovering around 7-weeks lows.
*  Asian stock markets ended lower for a fifth week, recording their biggest sell-off in 3-weeks and longest losing streak in 2-years.
*  Commodities prices were higher, Gold prices are trading around $US1,387 while crude-oil closed around $US97.

The Aussie market is looking open lower today, with the 4700 level now key, as stock prices eased  again in Europe and in the US overnight.  The RBA meeting minutes are due out Tuesday and its its index options expiry Thursday this week.

SPI Futures is trading below the key level of 4700, ending down -0.5% (or  -26 points) at 4,759. The key levels for the ASX200 index today are 4680 to 4790.

TEMP

ASX 200 looking to establish support around current levels.

US Markets

US stock markets end the week lower, end lower for the third week in four, ahead of Fed meeting.

The three benchmark indexes all ended down around -1% for the week. The Dow Jones posted its first 3-day drop this year, settling the week just above the 15,000 level, while the S&P500 held around the 1630 level. Markets closed the week holding above their 50-day moving average levels, as the “buy-on-the-dip” mentality is being tested. Nine of the ten S&P sectors ended in the red, with falls led by Energy and Financials sectors down over -1.1%, while the Materials, Industrials and Technology sectors all down over -0.7%.

Traders started bargain hunting, but the buying soon abated after the IMF lowered its prediction for 2014 US growth to 2.7 percent from 3 percent, saying there is a need for “effective communication” on the Fed’s stimulus exit strategy and careful calibration are needed to avoid volatility in interest rates.

Markets have sold-off heavily since late-May, over concerns that central banks around the world will “taper” their levels of stimulus and had wiped out $US2.7 trillion of stock value globally (since 21st May). Trader sentiment was further dampened yesterday after the World Bank cut its global growth forecast as emerging-market economies, led by China slow.

US treasuries and commodities rose, while the yen rallied. In commodities crude oil reached a four-month high and silver and gasoline rose over 1 percent.

For the session Dow Jones closed down -0.7% at 15,070, the S&P500 closed down -0.6% at 1,627, and the NASDAQ closed down -0.6% at 3,424.

European Markets

European stocks markets ended lower, posting their fourth weekly loss and are still hovering around 7-weeks lows. 

The Europe Stoxx 600 fell another -1.5% for the week, to record its longest stretch of weekly losses since April last year. The index has pared its gains to nearly 3% for the year after retreating over -6.3% from its May peak. The MSCI All-Country World index had risen 20% since the November lows, through to its May peak and has now retreated -4.3%, as the Japanese market has entered bear territory.

European traders have shown caution after the World Bank said in a report that the global economy will expand 2.2 percent this year, below the January forecast of 2.4 percent growth and slower than the 2.3 percent last year. It also lowered its projection for developing economies and said the eurozone gross domestic product will fall 0.6 percent.

In Germany the market ended the week lower, but finished well off its lows, having recently confirmed a breakdown from a recent double top formation.

In London markets the market rose for a second session as two stocks rose for every loser, having found support on the 200-day moving average, with the miners attracting bargain hunters and in real estate companies gained after house prices rose to a record last month. However the FTSE ended down -1.6% for the week.

The Greek market has been volatile, after Greece became the first developed country to lose its MSCI emerging market status after the market has plunged 83% since 2007.

In the UK the FTSE 100 closed up 0.1% at 6,308, the German DAX 30 closed up 0.4% at 8,128, the French CAC 40 closed up 0.2% at 3,805, while the Italian market closed up 0.2% at 16,153.

Asian Markets

Asian stock markets ended lower for a fifth week, recording their biggest sell-off in 3-weeks and longest losing streak in 2-years.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (ex-Japan) dropped -1.3% for the week and is at its lowest close since early February. The index is now down -10% from its May peak. Miners were sold down last week on concerns over weakening global growth. Newcrest was the worst performer down near -7%.

The Hong Kong and Japanese markets sold off last week entering bear market territory (down over -20% from its recent peaks). The Hong Kong market ended down -2.8% for the week, in a fifth week of declines.

However the Japan index end modestly higher up 0.3% for the week, after a late surge on the final day of the week as Nomura Holdings and Fidelity Worldwide advised buying Japanese shares. Nomura, Japan’s largest brokerage house said “assuming that Abenomics has not been defeated, we see no reason to become bearish on Japanese stocks, and recommend a bullish stance”

Chinese traders returned from a 3-day break to play catch-up selling down the market, which ended the week near 6-month lows.

For the session the Chinese Shanghai Composite closed up 0.6% at 2,162, the Hong Kong Hang Seng closed up 0.4% at 20,969, and the Japanese Nikkei closed up 1.9% at 12,687, while the South Korean KOSPI closed down 0.0% at 1,889.

Commodities

The Dollar Index was lower at 80.62 on a higher Euro, and the Aussie Dollar closed  up  at 0.9578. Commodities prices traded higher.

Overnight the COMEX WTI Crude for MAY13 delivery  closed  up 1.2% at $US97.85, the COMEX Copper for May 13 delivery  closed  up 0.5% at 3.202, the COMEX Gold for JUN13 delivery  closed up 0.7% at $US1,387.60.

ASX News Today

ASX – ASX the stock market operator had fallen nearly six per cent after it started trading again following its $553 million capital raising.

ELD – Elders has received at least one bid for its main rural services business and is working to finalise a sale.

LEI – Leighton Holdings subsidiary John Holland has won a $180 million contract to build a business school for the University of Sydney.

NHF – Nib the Private health insurer has lowered its full year financial forecasts, partly because of higher-than-expected claims.

NCM – Newcrest the gold miner, has defended the timing of its major restructure announcement and says it has not breached any share market rules.

SUN – Suncorp has sold a $1.6 billion non-performing loan portfolio to Goldman Sachs for 60 cents in the dollar, resulting in a a net loss of between A$480 million in the 2H13, a profit warning that was widely expected by analysts. Releasing the company from a portfolio of under-performing assets that had been weighing on its earnings outlook.

TCL – Transurban the toll road owner, is offloading one its poorly performing United States roads.

TLS – Work on Telstra pits containing asbestos will only resume when employees and contractors have been trained on the safe handling and removal of asbestos, Workplace Relations Minister Bill Shorten says.

Market Summary

ASX – to open lower
US & UK/Europe – lower for the week.

US ADRs – Broadly higher!!…

ANZ +0.5%, NAB +0.6%, NWS -1.2%
BHP -1.3%, RIO -0.7%, NEM -1.4%

By Michael Hevern
D2MX Investment Advisor

For trade ideas and recommendations on how to trade in this market, sign up for a free trial of the D2MX Daily Trading Report, call 1300 610 024 or email advisory@d2mx.com.au.

 

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Stock Market Analysis: Markets Set For Some Respite From Oversold Conditions

Friday, June 14th, 2013

*  US stock markets rebounded from the first 3-day drop this year, as traders speculated on Fed stimulus.
*  European stocks markets ended flat, still hovering around 7-weeks lows.
*  Asian stock markets have recorded their biggest sell-off in 3-weeks, erasing the gains for the year.
*  Commodities prices were mixed, Gold prices are trading around $US1,377 while crude-oil closed around $US96.70.

The Aussie market is looking open higher today, with the 4700 level now key, as stock prices eased  again in Europe but rebounded in the US overnight.  The ABS reported employment numbers ahead of expectations, with the unemployment rate remaining at 5.5%.

SPI Futures is trading below the key level of 4700, ending up 1.2% (or  -58 points) at 4,742. The key levels for the ASX200 index today are 4680 to 4750.  With the Aussie dollar up nearly US2c overnight we could see a near-term bounce particularly in the banks.

TEMP

In the UK the FTSE finds support at 200-day moving average…

US Markets

US stock markets rebounded from the first 3-day drop this year, as traders speculated on Fed stimulus.

The three benchmark indexes all ended 1.3% higher. The Dow Jones posted its first 3-day drop this year, settling below the 15,000 level, while the S&P500 held around the 1600 level. Markets closed the session rebounding from their 50-day moving average levels, as the “buy-on-the-dip” mentality is being tested. All ten S&P sectors ended in the green, with gains led by Materials, Energy, Industrials and Financials sectors all up over 1.7%, while the rest were up over 0.6%.

Traders started bargain hunting, after better than expected data, with Commerce Department reporting US retail sales rising 0.6 percent last month, the biggest increase in three months (above the 0.4% forecast), while a weekly employment report showed fewer Americans than forecast filed applications for unemployment benefits last week.

For the session Dow Jones closed up 1.2% at 15,176, the S&P500 closed up 1.5% at 1,636, and the NASDAQ closed up 1.3% at 3,445.

European Markets

European stocks markets ended flat, still hovering around 7-weeks lows.

The Europe Stoxx 600 eased -0.1% for the session, with trading volumes were 10% above the monthly average. The index has pared its gains to 3% for the year after retreating over -6.5% from its May peak.

European traders showed caution after the World Bank said in a report that the global economy will expand 2.2 percent this year, below the January forecast of 2.4 percent growth and slower than the 2.3 percent last year. It also lowered its projection for developing economies and said the eurozone gross domestic product will fall 0.6 percent.

In Germany the market ended lower, but finished well off its lows, having recently confirmed a breakdown from a recent double top formation. In London markets found support on the 200-day moving average, with the miners attracting bargain hunters. The Greek market rebounded 3%, despite Greece becoming the first developed country to lose its MSCI emerging market status after the market has plunged 83% since 2007.

In the UK the FTSE 100 closed up 0.1% at 6,305, the German DAX 30 closed down -0.6% at 8,095, the French CAC 40 closed up 0.1% at 3,798, while the Italian market closed up 0.6% at 16,116.

Asian Markets

Asian stock markets have recorded their biggest sell-off in 3-weeks, erasing all the gains for the year.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell -0.1% for the session and is at its lowest close since early February. The index is now down -10% from its May peak. The Hong Kong and Japanese markets sold off again and is now in bear market territory (down over -20% from its recent peaks).

Markets have sold-off heavily since late-May, over concerns that central banks around the world will “taper” their levels of stimulus and had wiped out $US2.7 trillion of stock value globally (since 21st May). Trader sentiment was further dampened yesterday after the World Bank cut its global growth forecast as emerging-market economies, led by China slow. Chinese traders returned from a 3-day break to play catch-up with the market ending down nearly -3%.

Japanese stocks ended in the red again, continuing their recent rout, as the market falls into the grips of the bears. Traders have been underwhelmed by news from the BoJ policy makers who kept the stimulus policy unchanged, holding back from expanding their tools to address bond market volatility and held to their April pledge to increase the monetary base by 60 trillion to 70 trillion yen ($US713 billion) a year. The Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda said the BoJ will consider longer funding operations if they become necessary. Exporters weighed on the stronger yen.

For the session the Chinese Shanghai Composite closed down -2.8% at 2,148, the Hong Kong Hang Seng closed down -2.2% at 20,887, and the Japanese Nikkei closed down -6.4% at 12,445, while the South Korean KOSPI closed down -1.4% at 1,883.

Commodities

The Dollar Index was lower at 81.05 on a lower Euro, and the Aussie Dollar surged up at 0.9641. Commodities prices traded mixed.

Overnight the COMEX WTI Crude for MAY13 delivery closed up 0.8% at $US96.69, the COMEX Copper for May 13 delivery closed down -1.3% at 3.185, the COMEX Gold for JUN13 delivery closed down -1.0% at $US1,377.80.

ASX News Today

ASX – ASX stock is in a trading halt ahead of a $553 million equity raising to fund growth, and has forecast a small increase in full year profit.

CLO – Clough the construction and engineering firm has announced an earnings upgrade even as mining sector investment gets scaled back.

LEI – Leighton Holdings subsidiary John Holland has won a $180 million contract to build a business school for the University of Sydney.

LYC – Lynas is worried that it is giving away its rare earths products too cheaply and has decided to draw a line in the sand for its own prices.

NCM – Newcrest the gold miner, has defended the timing of its major restructure announcement and says it has not breached any share market rules.

RIO – Rio Tinto has agreed to sell its Eagle project in the US to Lundin Mining Corporation for an estimated $US35 million in cash.

SCP – Shares in SCP a property trust created by supermarket company Woolworths have been placed in a trading halt.

SUN – Suncorp has sold a $1.6 billion non-performing loan portfolio to Goldman Sachs for 60 cents in the dollar, resulting in a a net loss of between A$480 million in the 2H13, a profit warning that was widely expected by analysts. Releasing the company from a portfolio of under-performing assets that had been weighing on its earnings outlook.

Market Summary

ASX – to open higher
US & UK/Europe – mixed.

US ADRs – Broadly higher!!…

ANZ +5.5%, NAB +5.3%, NWS +2.2%
BHP +2.6%, RIO +3.6%, NEM +1.0%

By Michael Hevern
D2MX Investment Advisor

For trade ideas and recommendations on how to trade in this market, sign up for a free trial of the D2MX Daily Trading Report, call 1300 610 024 or email advisory@d2mx.com.au.

 

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Stock Market Analysis: Global Markets Slide Continues

Thursday, June 13th, 2013

*  US stock markets end lower for a third session overnight, ending on their lows.
*  European stocks markets sold-off for a third session, hovering around 7-weeks lows.
*  Asian stock markets continued to fall, as the Japanese market sold off again.
*  Commodities prices were higher, Gold prices are trading around $US1,388 while crude-oil closed around $US96.

The Aussie market is looking open lower again today, with the 4700 level now key, as stock prices sold-off again in Europe and in the US overnight.

SPI Futures is trading below the key level of 4700, ending down -0.7% (or  -34 points) at 4,695. The key levels for the ASX200 index today are 4680 to 4750, as the mining sector is likely to weigh again.

TEMP

Japanese market slide continues…

US Markets

US stock markets end lower for a third session overnight, again stocks sold off from the open and ended on their lows.

The three benchmark indexes all ended -0.8% lower. The Dow Jones posted its first 3-day drop this year, settling below the 15,000 level, while the S&P500 held around the 1600 level. Markets closed the session holding around their 50-day moving average levels, as the “buy-on-the-dip” mentality is being tested. All ten S&P sectors ended in the red with falls led by Materials, Consumer Discretionary and Financials sectors all down over -1.1%, while Technology and industrials were down -0.7%.

Traders continued to sell on the back of concerns that the US Fed will “taper” its QE stimulus earlier than first thought, perhaps as early as September. Yields on 10 and 30 year Treasuries held around their highest levels in 14 months, due to concern that the central bank will slow monetary stimulus. These rising bond yields have again prompted investors to sell high-yield stocks in telecom and utility sectors and these two sectors have fallen over -5% in the past month, the most among the S&P 500’s 10 main sectors and the utility sector is now down -11% from its April 5-year highs.

For the session Dow Jones closed down -0.8% at 14,995, the S&P500 closed down -0.8% at 1,612, and the NASDAQ closed down -1.1% at 3,400.

European Markets

European stocks markets sold-off for a third session, hovering around 7-weeks lows.

The Europe Stoxx 600 eased -0.4% for the session, with trading volumes were -6% below the monthly average, with the miners the biggest drag. The index has pared its gains to 3% for the year after retrating over -6.4% from its May peak.

European traders are concerns as the German Federal Constitutional Court two-day hearing continued, to address the ECB’s Outright Monetary Transactions (OTM) program, which was introduced last year as concerns peaked that the euro region would break apart. The ECB OMT program is set to deal with the eurozone debt crisis and foresees potentially unlimited purchases of bonds of debt-stricken countries that sign up to adjustment program after

In Germany the market resumed its sell-down, having recently confirmed a breakdown from a recent double top formation. In London markets fell again and is on track for a fourth week of declines, as the miners weighed.  Greece became the first developed country to lose its MSCI emerging market status after the market has plunged 83% since 2007.

In the UK the FTSE 100 closed down -0.6% at 6,299, the German DAX 30 closed down -1.0% at 8,143, the French CAC 40 closed down -0.4% at 3,793, while the Greek market closed down -3.2%.

Asian Markets

Asian stock markets continued to fall, as the Japanese market sold off again on comments from the BoJ.  Markets in China, Taiwan and Hong Kong were closed for holidays.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell -0.1% for the session and is at its lowest close since early February. The index is now down -10% from its May peak.

Japanese stocks ended in the red again, reversing their biggest surged in 2-years. Trades were underwhelmed by news from the BoJ policy makers who kept the stimulus policy unchanged, holding back from expanding their tools to address bond market volatility and held to their April pledge to increase the monetary base by 60 trillion to 70 trillion yen ($US713 billion) a year. The the Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda said the BoJ will consider longer funding operations if they become necessary.  Exporters weighed on the stronger yen.

For the session the Chinese Shanghai Composite closed at 2,211, the Hong Kong Hang Seng closed at 21,355, and the Japanese Nikkei closed down -0.2% at 13,289, while the South Korean KOSPI closed down -0.6% at 1,909.

Commodities

The Dollar Index was lower at 81.05 on a lower Euro, and the Aussie Dollar closed up at 0.9484. Commodities prices traded higher.

Overnight the COMEX WTI Crude for MAY13 delivery closed up 0.5% at $US95.85, the COMEX Copper for May 13 delivery closed up 0.9% at 3.223, the COMEX Gold for JUN13 delivery closed up 0.8% at $US1,388.00.

ASX News Today

ASX – ASX stock is in a trading halt ahead of a $553 million equity raising to fund growth, and has forecast a small increase in full year profit.

JHX – James Hardie the building materials maker has appointed a senior executive from GE as its replacement for outgoing chief financial officer Russell Chenu.

LYC – Lynas is worried that it is giving away its rare earths products too cheaply and has decided to draw a line in the sand for its own prices.

NCM – Newcrest the gold miner, has defended the timing of its major restructure announcement and says it has not breached any share market rules.

QAN – Qantas says security screeners at Perth Airport’s Qantas terminal have escalated industrial action over a pay dispute, walking off the job at the busiest time for fly-in fly-out (FIFO) workers.

TSE – Transfield Services the troubled construction and maintenance group has appointed a BHP executive as its new chief financial officer (CFO).

WES – Wesfarmers says Target 260 staff jobs will be cut at the retailer’s Geelong headquarters.

Market Summary

ASX – to open lower
US & UK/Europe – lower.

US ADRs – Broadly lower!!…

ANZ -0.9%, NAB -1.0%, NWS -2.1%
BHP -0.7%, RIO +0.3%, NEM +1.6%

By Michael Hevern
D2MX Investment Advisor

For trade ideas and recommendations on how to trade in this market, sign up for a free trial of the D2MX Daily Trading Report, call 1300 610 024 or email advisory@d2mx.com.au.

 

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Stock Market Analysis: Markets Sell-off As BoJ Places Hold On Stimulus

Wednesday, June 12th, 2013

*  US stock markets end lower for a second session overnight, as stocks sold off from the open.
*  European stocks markets sold-off for a second session, hovering around 7-weeks lows.
*  Asian stock markets fell again, as the Japanese market sold off on comments from the BoJ.
*  Commodities prices were lower, Gold prices are trading around $US1,377 while crude-oil closed around $US95.

The Aussie market is looking open sharply lower today, with the 4700 level now key, as stock prices sold-off in Europe and in the US overnight.

SPI Futures is trading below the key level of 4750, ending down -0.8% (or  -40 points) at 4,725. The key levels for the ASX200 index today are 4700 to 4780, as the mining sector is likely to weigh again.

TEMP

Share markets are trading lower globally.

Economic News

April - RBA credit card balances, purchases
May  - Westpac/Melbourne Institute Survey of Consumer Sentiment

US Markets

US stock markets end lower for a second session overnight, as stocks sold off from the open.

The three benchmark indexes all ended lower. The Dow Jones settled above the 15,100 level, while the S&P500 held around the 1630 level. Markets closed the session holding around their 50-day moving average levels, as the “buy-on-the-dip” mentality is being tested. All ten S&P sectors ended in the red with falls led by Materials, Energy and Financials sectors down over -1.4%, while Technology and industrials were down -1.0%.

Traders sold on the back of economic data and news that the BoJ is holding firm on stimulus. Yields on 10 and 30 year Treasuries touched their highest levels in 14 months, due to concern that the central bank will slow monetary stimulus. These rising bond yields have prompted investors to sell high-yield stocks in telecom and utility sectors and these two sectors have fallen nearly -5% in the past month, the most among the S&P 500’s 10 main sectors. Elsewhere the Commerce Department reported inventories at US wholesalers rose 0.2 percent in April (down from a 0.3 percent previously).

For the session Dow Jones closed down -0.8% at 15,122, the S&P500 closed down -1.0% at 1,626, and the NASDAQ closed down -1.1% at 3,437.

European Markets

European stocks markets sold-off for a second session, hovering around 7-weeks lows.

The Europe Stoxx 600 eased -1.2% for the session, with trading volumes up 18% above the monthly average, with the miners the biggest drag. The index has pared its gains to 3% for the year after retrating over -6% from its May peak.

European traders are concerns as the German Federal Constitutional Court began a two-day hearing to address the ECB’s OMT program, which was introduced last year as concerns peaked that the euro region would break apart. The ECB OMT program foresees potentially unlimited purchases of bonds of debt-stricken countries that sign up to adjustment programs.

The ECB announced the Outright Monetary Transactions (OTM) plan to deal with the eurozone debt crisis and it involves the central bank’s pledge to buy the government bonds of the eurozone debt laden nations, but only if the countries meet certain strict conditions regarding their economic policies. The OMT is designed more to head off a deepening of the crisis rather than providing direct economic stimulus.

In Germany the market resumed its sell-down, having recently confirmed a breakdown from a recent double top formation. In London markets fell again, extending its third week of declines as the miners weighed, on the back of the disappointing Chinese data.

In the UK the FTSE 100 closed down -0.9% at 6,340, the German DAX 30 closed down -1.0% at 8,222, the French CAC 40 closed down -1.4% at 3,811, while the Italian market closed down -1.6% at 16,287.

Asian Markets

Asian stock markets fell again, as the Japanese market sold off on comments from the BoJ.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell -0.3% for the session and is at its lowest close since early February. The index is now down -10% from its May peak.

Japanese stocks ended in the red, reversing their biggest surged in 2-years. In Japan the BoJ policy makers held back from expanding their tools to address bond market volatility and held to their April pledge to increase the monetary base by 60 trillion to 70 trillion yen ($US713 billion) a year. The central bank left its one-year fixed-rate loan facility unaltered and the Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda said the BoJ will consider longer funding operations if they become necessary.

The Chinese and Hong Kong markets traded lower, after Chinese industrial production rose 9.5% (below forecast) and exports came in at a 10-month low as imports also unexpectedly fell. Today investors in Australia will have to digest the Chinese trade balance and CPI figures from the weekend.

For the session the Chinese Shanghai Composite closed down -1.3% at 2,211, the Hong Kong Hang Seng closed down -1.2% at 21,355, and the Japanese Nikkei closed down -1.5% at 13,318, while the South Korean KOSPI closed down -0.6% at 1,921.

Commodities

The Dollar Index was lower at 81.05 on a lower Euro, and the Aussie Dollar closed up at 0.9463. Commodities prices traded lower.

Overnight the COMEX WTI Crude for MAY13 delivery closed down -0.4% at $US95.38, the COMEX Copper for May 13 delivery closed down -1.6% at 3.188, the COMEX Gold for JUN13 delivery closed down -0.6% at $US1,377.00.

ASX News Today

ASX – ASX stock is in a trading halt ahead of a $553 million equity raising to fund growth, and has forecast a small increase in full year profit..

IRON ORE – One of China’s top-five steel makers has warned Australian miners of weaker iron ore prices in the second half of 2013, as much of Chinese steel industry struggles

QAN – Qantas has sold a major stake in its planned Hong Kong budget airline to a company established by billionaire Stanley Ho.

NCM – Newcrest the gold miner has continued to fall after announcing a major restructure last week involving job cuts and reduced expenditure due to a recent gold price rout. The company faces investigation over disclosures after their most recent share slump, resulting from its news over restructuring.

NWH – NRW Holdings the mining services provider says revenues have fallen because of contract delays and project deferrals.

RHC – Ramsay the private hospital operator has taken a 90 per cent stake in a private hospital in the French city of Toulouse.

RMS – Ramelius Resources has produced a record amount of gold in May.

WOW – Woolworths has been blocked from opening a new store in Sydney’s west due to fears it would give the supermarket giant a monopoly.

Market Summary

ASX – to open lower
US & UK/Europe – lower.

US ADRs – Broadly lower!!…

ANZ -1.3%, NAB -1.7%, NWS -0.9%
BHP -1.9%, RIO -1.4%, NEM -3.2%

By Michael Hevern
D2MX Investment Advisor

For trade ideas and recommendations on how to trade in this market, sign up for a free trial of the D2MX Daily Trading Report, call 1300 610 024 or email advisory@d2mx.com.au.

 

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Stock Market Analysis: Aussie Market Set For Weak Start

Tuesday, June 11th, 2013

*  US stock markets eased overnight, following their biggest 2-day rise since January.
*  European stocks markets have recovered from 6-weeks lows.
*  Asian stock markets fell, but the Japanese market rebounded strongly.
*  Commodities prices were higher, Gold prices are trading around $US1,385, while crude-oil closed around $US95.

The Aussie market is looking open lower today, playing catchup, with the 4800 level now key, as stock prices eased in Europe and in the US overnight.

SPI Futures is trading below the key level of 4800, ending down -0.4% (or  -17 points) at 4,780. The key levels for the ASX200 index today are 4730 to 4820, as the mining sector is likely to weigh.    The ASX market and Aussie dollar have recently been hit by concerns over slowing growth in China, concerns over the Federal Reserve will “taper” its stimulus this year, and volatility in Japanese equities.

See below for ASX listed companies in the news today.

Economic News

April – ABS Housing Finance
May  - National Bank Monthly Business Survey

US Markets

US stock markets eased overnight, following their biggest 2-day rise since January, after the Non-farm employment report surprised to the upside and the S&P ratings agency raised its outlook on US Debt.

The three benchmark indexes all ended flat. The Dow Jones settled above the 15,200 level, while the S&P500 held around the 1640 level. Markets closed the session holding around their 50-day moving average levels, as the “buy-on-the-dip” mentality is being tested. The ten S&P sectors ended mixed with gains led by Materials up 0.5% and Technology up 0.2%, while energy and industrial s down -0.3%.

Traders bought up after the NFP monthly employment report show employers added 175,000 to the non-farm payrolls last month and the S&P upgraded US Debt AA+ credit rating to stable (from negative), citing the improving economic conditions and receding fiscal risks.

For the session Dow Jones closed down -0.1% at 15,238, the S&P500 closed up 0.1% at 1,643, and the NASDAQ closed up 0.1% at 3,474.

European Markets

European stocks markets have recovered from 6-weeks lows, but finished flat overnight.

The Europe Stoxx 600 eased  -0.1% for the session. The index has pared its gains to 4% for the year and has surged 89 percent since March 2009 as European Central Bank President Draghi pledged to preserve the euro and the Fed embarked on three rounds of stimulus.

Traders were reassured by the S&P US Debt upgrade.  In London markets fell again, extending its third week of declines as the miners weighed, on the back of the disappointing Chinese data.  In Germany the market found some support, having recently confirmed a breakdown from a recent double top formation. Traders remain concerned over comments from Deutsche Bank that indicated the US central bank’s policy makers will start “tapering” quantitative easing (QE) as early as September.

In the UK the FTSE 100 closed down -0.2% at 6,400, the German DAX 30 closed up 0.6% at 8,308, the French CAC 40 closed down -0.2% at 3,864, while the Italian market closed down -0.8% at 16,556.

Asian Markets

Asian stock markets fell, but the Japanese market rebounded strongly, despite disappointing Chinese data.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell -0.8% for the session, and is at its lowest close since early February. The index is now down -10% from its May peak.

The Chinese and Hong Kong markets traded lower, after Chinese industrial production rose 9.5% (below forecast)  and exports came in at a 10-month low as imports also unexpectedly fell. Today investors in Australia will have to digest the Chinese trade balance and CPI figures from the weekend.

Japanese stocks surged by the most in 2-years, as the government reported the economy grew in the first quarter by more than forecast.

For the session the Chinese Shanghai Composite closed down -1.3% at 2,210, the Hong Kong Hang Seng closed up 0.2% at 21,615, and the Japanese Nikkei closed up 4.9% at 13,514, while the South Korean KOSPI was up 0.5%.

Commodities

The Dollar Index was higher at 82.89 on a lower Euro, and the Aussie Dollar closed  lower  at 0.9464. Commodities prices traded higher.

Overnight the COMEX WTI Crude for MAY13 delivery  closed  up 0.1% at $US95.89, the COMEX Copper for May 13 delivery  closed  up 0.8% at 3.267, the COMEX Gold for JUN13 delivery  closed down -0.1% at $US1,385.

ASX News Today

ASX – ASX stock is in a trading halt ahead of a $553 million equity raising to fund growth.

FXJ – Fairfax Media will launch metered paywalls on its Sydney Morning Herald and The Age websites In July, while its weekend newspapers will shift to compact editions in early 2014.

FDC – Federation Centres, the shopping centre owner, has sold a half share in six of its properties for $602 million.

IRON ORE – One of China’s top-five steel makers has warned Australian miners of weaker iron ore prices in the second half of 2013, as much of Chinese steel industry struggles

NCM – Newcrest faces investigation over disclosures after their most recent share slump, resulting from its news over restructuring.

QAN – Qantas has sold a major stake in its planned Hong Kong budget airline to a company established by billionaire Stanley Ho.

RMS – Ramelius Resources has produced a record amount of gold in May.

SYD – A business group says Sydney still needs a second airport, despite plans to increase passenger numbers at the existing site.

WOW – Woolworths has been blocked from opening a new store in Sydney’s west due to fears it would give the supermarket giant a monopoly.

Market Summary

ASX – to open lower
US & UK/Europe – lower.

US ADRs – Broadly lower!!…

ANZ -1.1%, NAB -1.2%, NWS -0.7%
BHP -0.9%, RIO -1.9%, NEM +0.4%

By Michael Hevern
D2MX Investment Advisor

For trade ideas and recommendations on how to trade in this market, sign up for a free trial of the D2MX Daily Trading Report, call 1300 610 024 or email advisory@d2mx.com.au.

 

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Stock Market Analysis: Stock Remain Under Pressure, As Aussie Dollar Recovers

Friday, June 7th, 2013

*  US stock markets once again recovered from early weakness, ending in the green.
*  European stocks markets fell to fresh 6-weeks lows, after the ECB failed to added further to stimulus.
*  Asian stock markets fell sharply gain, as the Japanese market continued its sell-off.
*  Commodities prices were higher, Gold prices are trading around $US1,412, while crude-oil closed around $US95.

The Aussie market is looking open flat today, with the 4800 level now key, as stock prices again closed lower in Europe, but rose  in the US.

SPI Futures is trading below the key level of 4800, ending down -0.1% (or  -4 points) at 4,776. The key levels for the ASX200 index today are 4750 to 4850.    The ASX market and Aussie dollar have recently been hit by concerns over slowing growth in China, concerns over the Federal Reserve will “taper” its stimulus this year, and volatility in Japanese equities.

TEMP

The Aussie dollar’s spectacular slide continues, but rebounded to US96.10c overnight.

See below for ASX listed companies in the news today.

US Markets

US stock markets once again recovered from early weakness to ending in the green.

The three benchmark indexes all ended up around 0.7%. The Dow Jones settled above the 15,000 level, while the S&P500 held around the 1620 level. Markets closed the session holding around their 50-day moving average levels, as the “buy-on-the-dip” mentality is being tested. The ten S&P sectors edged higher, with telecoms and consumer staples the best performers up over 0.5% for the session, while the other sectors edged modestly higher for the session.

Traders placed their bets that the Fed will continue its stimulus, ahead of the NFP monthly employment report.  Economists are forecasting the report will show employers added 165,000 to the non-farm payrolls last month.  The data so far this week has been mixed, as a report from ADP Research Institute showed US companies hired fewer workers than projected in May, in reaction to federal budget cuts and higher taxes, while the Commerce Department showed US factory orders in April fell short of estimates. The Fed’s Beige Book, a survey of the 12 Fed regions, showed the economy expanded at a “modest to moderate” pace in all but one central bank districts, with broad-based gains ranging from business services to construction and manufacturing.

For the session Dow Jones closed up 0.5% at 15,040, the S&P500 closed up 0.9% at 1,622, and the NASDAQ closed up 0.7% at 3,424.

European Markets

European stocks markets fell to fresh 6-weeks lows, after the ECB failed to added further to stimulus measures.

The Europe Stoxx 600 again fell -1.6% for the session, with trading volumes are on the rise. The index has pared its gains to 4% for the year and has surged 89 percent since March 2009 as European Central Bank President Draghi pledged to preserve the euro and the Fed embarked on three rounds of stimulus.

Traders were disappointed as the ECB left additional stimulus measures “on the shelf” and kept rates on hold, as the ECB President Draghi predicted that the eurozone will return to growth by the end of the year.

In London markets fell to fresh 6-week lows, as the miners weighed on sentiment, while retailers were again under pressure.  In Germany the market has confirmed a breakdown from a recent double top formation. Traders showed concern from comments from Deutsche Bank that indicated the US central bank’s policy makers will start “tapering” quantitative easing (QE) as early as September.

In the UK the FTSE 100 closed down -1.3% at 6,336, the German DAX 30 closed down -1.2% at 8,099, the French CAC 40 closed down -1.0% at 3,814, while the Italian market closed down -2.6% at 16,525.

Asian Markets

Asian stock markets fell sharply gain, as the Japanese market continued its sell-off.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell -1.1% for the session, and is heading for its lowest close since early February. The index is now down -9.5% from its May peak. All ten industry gauges ended in the red.

The Chinese and Hong Kong markets traded lower again around -1%. Investors will have to digest the Chinese trade balance and CPI figures over the weekend after getting mixed signals from recent Chinese data with the HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics said their Flash PMI index of manufacturing in the world’s second-largest economy fell to 49.2 in May from 50.4 in April, while on the weekend an official index for the industry rose to 50.8 (up from 50.6).

Japanese stocks fell yesterday in choppy trading, compounding the previous session’s sell-off and falling below 13,000 points for the first time since early April, as the Nikkei is now down -19% from its recent multiyear peak in May. The recent selling was triggered in Japan, after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe failed to impress investors in a speech outlining Japan’s growth strategy in the so-called “Third Arrow” of economic revitalisation, which included a legislative campaign to loosen rules on businesses ranging from non-prescription drugs to construction.

For the session the Chinese Shanghai Composite closed down -1.3% at 2,242, the Hong Kong Hang Seng closed down -1.0% at 21,860, and the Japanese Nikkei closed down -0.9% at 12,904, while the South Korean KOSPI was closed for a public holiday.

Commodities

The Dollar Index was lower  at 82.12 on a higher Euro, and the Aussie Dollar closed  higher  at 0.9610. Commodities prices traded higher.

Overnight the COMEX WTI Crude for MAY13 delivery  closed  up 1.0% at $US94.71, the COMEX Copper for May 13 delivery  closed  down -1.3% at 3.332, the COMEX Gold for JUN13 delivery  closed up 0.7% at $US1,412.90.

ASX News Today

BTU – NZ environmental group Forest & Bird has lost its bid to overturn a court decision approving an open cast mine on the Denniston Plateau.

FXJ – Fairfax Media will launch metered paywalls on its Sydney Morning Herald and The Age websites In July, while its weekend newspapers will shift to compact editions in early 2014.

FDC – Federation Centres, the shopping centre owner, has sold a half share in six of its properties for $602 million.

MAH – Macmahon the mining services company has had a multi-million dollar mine shaft project unexpectedly shut down by a client.

NWS – News Corp’s new leader of its publishing business believes there are reasons to be optimistic about the print industry.

QAN – Qantas has sold a major stake in its planned Hong Kong budget airline to a company established by billionaire Stanley Ho.

RMS – Ramelius Resources has produced a record amount of gold in May.

SYD – A business group says Sydney still needs a second airport, despite plans to increase passenger numbers at the existing site.

TLS – The opposition says the federal government risks stirring up unnecessary panic among communities living near national broadband network (NBN) work sites where asbestos has been discovered.

VAH – Air New Zealand’s increased stake in Virgin Australia will not affect the business, Virgin Australia Chief Executive John Borghetti says.

WOW – Woolworths has been blocked from opening a new store in Sydney’s west due to fears it would give the supermarket giant a monopoly.

Market Summary

ASX – to open flat
US & UK/Europe – US higher, EU lower.

US ADRs – Broadly higher!!…

ANZ +0.8%, NAB +1.4%, NWS +0.8%
BHP +0.7%, RIO +1.0%, NEM +1.0%

By Michael Hevern
D2MX Investment Advisor

For trade ideas and recommendations on how to trade in this market, sign up for a free trial of the D2MX Daily Trading Report, call 1300 610 024 or email advisory@d2mx.com.au.

 

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Stock Market Analysis: The Selling Continues…

Thursday, June 6th, 2013

*  US stock markets failed to recover from early selling ending in the red.
*  European stocks markets fell to their lowest levels in 6-weeks.
*  Asian stock markets fell sharply, as the Japanese market resumed its sell-off.
*  Commodities prices held, Gold prices are trading around $US1,398, while crude-oil closed around $US93.

The Aussie market is looking trade lower again today, with the 4800 level now key, as stock prices closed sharply lower in Europe and in the US.

SPI Futures is trading below the key level of 4800, ending down -1.0% (or  -47 points) at 4,879. The key levels for the ASX200 index today are 4750 to 4850.    The ABS reported GDP figures disappointed yesterday, with West Australian falling into recession.  The Aussie economy grew 0.6 percent last quarter from the previous three months, below the forecast 0.7 percent.  The ASX market and Aussie dollar have recently been hit by concerns over slowing growth in China, concerns over the Federal Reserve will “taper” its stimulus this year, and volatility in Japanese equities.

TEMP

DOW Theory - in the US Dow Jones Transport Index leads the way lower for equites.

See below for ASX listed companies in the news today.

US Markets

US stock markets failed to recover from early selling, ending in the red.

The three benchmark indexes all ended down around -1.4%. The Dow Jones settled below the 15,000 level, while the S&P500 held around the 1600 level. Markets closed the session held below their 13-day and are now testing their 50-day moving average levels, as the “buy-on-the-dip” mentality is being tested. All ten S&P sectors ended well in the red, with industrials and consumer discretionary the worst performers down over -1.8% for the session, while the rest were down at least -1.2% for the session. The index of home-builders slumped -1.6% as mortgage applications dropped for a fourth straight week.

Traders reacted negatively to the mixed economic data, as a report from ADP Research Institute showed US companies hired fewer workers than projected in May, in reaction to federal budget cuts and higher taxes, while the Commerce Department showed US factory orders in April fell short of estimates. The Fed’s Beige Book, a survey of the 12 Fed regions, showed the economy expanded at a “modest to moderate” pace in all but one central bank districts, with broad-based gains ranging from business services to construction and manufacturing.

For the session Dow Jones closed down -1.4% at 14,961, the S&P500 closed down -1.4% at 1,609, and the NASDAQ closed down -1.3% at 3,401.

European Markets

European stocks markets fell to their lowest levels in 6-weeks.

The Europe Stoxx 600 again fell -1.5% for the session, with trading volumes up 11% on the monthly average. The index has pared its gains to 5.5% for the year and has surged 90 percent since March 2009 as European Central Bank President Draghi pledged to preserve the euro and the Fed embarked on three rounds of stimulus.

In London markets fell to 6-week lows, as the miners weighed on sentiment, while retailers slumped over -3%, the biggest plunge in the sector for the year. In Germany the market has confirmed a breakdown from a recent double top formation. Traders showed concern from comments from Deutsche Bank that indicated the US central bank’s policy makers will start “tapering” quantitative easing (QE) as early as September.

In the UK the FTSE 100 closed down -2.1% at 6,419, the German DAX 30 closed down -1.2% at 8,196, the French CAC 40 closed down -1.9% at 3,852, while the Italian market closed down -1.0% at 16,971.

Asian Markets

Asian stock markets fell sharply, as the Japanese market resumed its sell-off.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell -1.8% for the session, and is heading for its lowest close since early February, as four stocks fell for each that rose. The index is now down -8.5% from its May peak. All ten industry guages ended in the red.

The Chinese market and Hong Kong markets eased again, the Shanghai Composite is now flat for the year. Investors will have to digest the Chinese trader balance and CPI figures over the weekend after getting mixed signals from recent Chinese data with the HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics said their Flash PMI index of manufacturing in the world’s second-largest economy fell to 49.2 in May from 50.4 in April, while on the weekend an official index for the industry rose to 50.8 (up from 50.6).

The selling was triggered in Japan, after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe failed to impress investors in a speech outlining Japan’s growth strategy, which included a legislative campaign to loosen rules on businesses ranging from non-prescription drugs to construction. Energy stocks recorded the biggest declines amid concern that Chinese demand for fuel will decline, as economic growth slows.

For the session the Chinese Shanghai Composite closed down -0.1% at 2,271, the Hong Kong Hang Seng closed down -1.0% at 22,069, and the Japanese Nikkei closed down -3.8% at 13,015, while the South Korean KOSPI closed down -1.5% at 1,959.

Commodities

The Dollar Index was lower  at 82.52 on a higher Euro, and the Aussie Dollar closed  down  at 0.9530. Commodities prices traded flat.

Overnight the COMEX WTI Crude for MAY13 delivery  closed  up 0.5% at $US93.74, the COMEX Copper for May 13 delivery  closed  up 0.1% at 3.372, the COMEX Gold for JUN13 delivery  closed up 0.1% at $US1,398.50.

ASX News Today

FDC – Federation Centres, the shopping centre owner, has sold a half share in six of its properties for $602 million.

MAH – Macmahon the mining services company has had a multi-million dollar mine shaft project unexpectedly shut down by a client.

NWS – News Corp’s new leader of its publishing business believes there are reasons to be optimistic about the print industry.

ORE – Orocobre is the Australian miner that is not really a miner, but if all goes well it will be producing 10 per cent of the world’s lithium in a year.

RMS – Ramelius Resources has produced a record amount of gold in May.

SYD – A business group says Sydney still needs a second airport, despite plans to increase passenger numbers at the existing site.

TLS – The opposition says the federal government risks stirring up unnecessary panic among communities living near national broadband network (NBN) work sites where asbestos has been discovered.

TWE – Treasury Wine Estates the wine maker, has appointed former Foster’s chief financial officer Tony Reeves as its new chief financial officer (CFO).

Market Summary

ASX – to open lower
US & UK/Europe – lower.

US ADRs – Broadly lower!!…

ANZ -4.2%, NAB -4.2%, NWS -2.8%
BHP -2.8%, RIO -2.5%, NEM +0.4%

By Michael Hevern
D2MX Investment Advisor

For trade ideas and recommendations on how to trade in this market, sign up for a free trial of the D2MX Daily Trading Report, call 1300 610 024 or email advisory@d2mx.com.au.

 

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Stock Market Analysis: Traders Nervous Ahead of Upcoming Key Data

Wednesday, June 5th, 2013

*  US stock markets recovered from early weakness but still ended in the red.
*  European stocks markets rebounded from a one month low.
*  Asian stock markets rebounded from a 3-month low.
*  Commodities prices mixed, Gold prices are trading around $US1,397, while crude-oil closed around $US93.

The Aussie market is looking trade lower today, with the 4900 level key again, as stock prices closed lower in Europe and in the US.

SPI Futures is trading below the key level of 4900, ending down -0.4% (or  -19 points) at 4,879. The key levels for the ASX200 index today are 4840 to 4900.    The iron ore stocks could see some support today after spot prices improved overnight.  The high yielding banks appear to be finding support, as the big four banks average a dividend yield of close to 6%, which still compares favourably to between 3%and 4% for 12-month term deposits.

Yesterday the stocks rebounded after the RBA kept its cash rate at a record low of 2.75 per cent as expected, but kept an easing bias.  The ABS reported the balance of payments figures were slightly below expectations.  The ASX index has recently been hit by concerns over slowing growth in China, concerns over the Federal Reserve will “taper” its stimulus this year, and volatility in Japanese equities.

See below for ASX listed companies in the news today.

US Markets

US stock markets recovered from early weakness but still ended in the red, snapping a 20 straight winning streak for positive Tuesday session.

The three benchmark indexes all ended down around -0.6%. The Dow Jones settled around the 15,200 level, while the S&P500 held around the 1630 level near around all-time highs. Markets closed the session below their 13-day moving average level, as the “buy-on-the-dip” mentality is being tested. The index ended up 1.2% for May, recording its seventh straight month of gains, the longest winning streak since September 2009. Eight of the ten S&P sectors ended in the red, with energy and financials the worst performers down over -0.8% for the session, while consumer staples ended in the green.

Traders hit the sell button on concerns that the Fed stimulus may start to “taper” as early as September and are keenly awaiting the Non-Farm Payrolls monthly employment report, which will give some insight into the strength of the US econmomy, as economists forecast a slowing in growth in payrolls in May. This data will be particularly important after recent ISM data renewed concern that economic growth could slow, as a report from the Institute for Supply Management showed manufacturing unexpectedly contracted in May at the fastest pace in four years, decreasing to 49 in May (down from 50.7 in April).

For the session Dow Jones closed down -0.5% at 15,178, the S&P500 closed down -0.6% at 1,631, and the NASDAQ closed down -0.6% at 3,445.

European Markets

European stocks markets rebounded from a one month low. It remains clear that the ECB will remain supportive of equities going forward.

The Europe Stoxx 600 again rose 0.3% for the session. The index managed a 1.4% rise in May, extending its longest streak of monthly gains since July 1997. The index has rallied 7% percent this year and has surged 92 percent since March 2009 as European Central Bank President Draghi pledged to preserve the euro and the Fed embarked on three rounds of stimulus.

The Spanish market rose 1% after unemployment figures improved. In London markets rebounded from a one month low, as the trading volume was 26% above the monthly average, as a Markit survey found UK construction returned to growth last month, for the first time since Octoberwith the index of building activity rising to 50.8 (up from 49.4 in April). The miners were bought up on the back of higher metals prices. In Germany the market ended flat, but managed to rise 5.4% for May and has risen eleven of the past twelve months.

In the UK the FTSE 100 closed up 0.5% at 6,559, the German DAX 30 closed up 0.1% at 8,296, the French CAC 40 closed up 0.1% at 3,926, while the Italian market closed up 0.5% at 17,135.

Asian Markets

Asian stock markets rebounded from a 3-month low, as the Japanese market recorded its best session in 2-months. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.9% for the session, as two stocks rose for each that fell.

The Chinese market and Hong Kong markets eased again, the Shanghai Composite is now flat for the year, and was up nearly 6% for May, bucking the trend of other major Asian markets.  Investors will have to digest the Chinese trader balance and CPI figures over the weekend after getting mixed signals from recent Chinese data with the HSBC Holdings Plc and Markit Economics said their Flash PMI index of manufacturing in the world’s second-largest economy fell to 49.2 in May from 50.4 in April, while on the weekend an official index for the industry rose to 50.8 (up from 50.6).  In Japan the market rebounded over 2%. The exporters were bought up as the yen fell from a 4-week high.

For the session the Chinese Shanghai Composite closed down -1.2% at 2,272, the Hong Kong Hang Seng closed up 0.0% at 22,286, and the Japanese Nikkei closed up 2.1% at 13,534, while the South Korean KOSPI closed down 0.0% at 1,990.

Commodities

The Dollar Index was lower  at 82.68 on a higher Euro, and the Aussie Dollar closed lower at 0.9656. Commodities prices traded mixed.

Overnight the COMEX WTI Crude for MAY13 delivery closed down -0.1% at $US93.31, the COMEX Copper for May 13 delivery closed up 1.2% at 3.369, the COMEX Gold for JUN13 delivery closed down -1.0% at $US1,397.20.

ASX News Today

ASX – ASX chief executive Elmer Funke Kupper hopes the creation of a market to buy and sell government bonds will lead to more corporations issuing bonds.

ALZ – Property owner and manager GPT Group has dropped its $3 billion bid for Australand’s commercial and industrial assets.

BBG – Billabong shares slump nearly 50% in market value after discussions on a possible takeover ended without a deal.

BWD – Blackwood Corporation the miner has agreed on a settlement proposal with Nathan Tinkler under which the coal baron would pay $12 million to settle an outstanding $28.4 million share placement debt.

TEN – Network Ten says it plans to make the domestic Big Bash cricket league a major free-to-air TV event.

TPI – Transpacific Industries Group’s head has resigned as the waste management company downgrades its profit forecast.

Market Summary

ASX – to open lower
US & UK/Europe – lower.

US ADRs – Broadly lower!!…

ANZ -1.4%, NAB -0.1%, NWS +0.2%
BHP -0.8%, RIO -0.5%, NEM -1.2%

By Michael Hevern
D2MX Investment Advisor

For trade ideas and recommendations on how to trade in this market, sign up for a free trial of the D2MX Daily Trading Report, call 1300 610 024 or email advisory@d2mx.com.au.

 

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