Stock Market Analysis
Positive Week as September Rally Continues
Overseas markets continued to melt-up Friday, as they continued their September rally with most all market higher for the week (see below). The ASX is set to trade higher today, on the back of good economic news from the U.S. and China which show those economies are not slowing as quickly as first feared. The Aussie dollar hit $US 0.93 on the weekend as crude oil prices pushed higher, on supply and demand triggers.
The SPI Futures is just above the key resistance level of 4600 the ASX is set to open higher as the SPI Futures closed 0.3% (or 12 pts) at 4,577 (down -0.2% for week). The ASX is set to trade higher today. The key levels for our index today are 4700 and 4500. M&A activity continues to drive specific stocks. M&A activity is hotting up, particularly in the gold mining sector, however gold prices have back off record highs and will likely weigh on gold stocks in the short term. Oil prices are above the key $US75 level. Options volatilty is subdued at the moment, which gives investors access to “cheap” protection, so investors may consider taking this opportunity to protect their portfolios.
US Markets
US stocks drifter higher on Friday. The September rally continued last week, as investors step into the market after a torrid August. Economic reports are surprising to the upside, with the latest report on wholesale inventories showing increases in July, which was interpretted as a sign of confidence that retail sales will rise. The “fly in the oinment” may be a resurfacing of concerns over EU debt issues, but at the moment investors are content to look to the bright side, as there is now some hope in the job market and other parts of the economy such as trade figures. Two stocks rose for every one that fell on the NYSE but trading volumes remain very low at 3.1 billion shares. The Dow closed p 0.5% (or 48 pts) at 10,463 (up 0.1% for week), while in the broader market the S&P 500 index up 0.5% (or 5 pts) at 1,110 (up 0.5% for week) and the tech-heavy Nasdaq ended up 0.3% (or 6 pts) at 2,242 (up 0.4% for week).
European Markets
European markets closed flat on Friday, but were up around 1.3 percent for the week. Investors have been concerned over debt issues and the state of Europe’s banking sector, as EU financiers met at Basel III over the weekend, to decide on measures and regulations that will attempt to avoid another GFC meltdown. A report that German banking giant Deutsche Bank is considering raising new cash through a stock sale, also tempered gains. Trading volumes were again light. In London the FTSE 100 index closed up marginally 0.1% (or 7 pts) at 5,502 (up 1.4% for week), the German DAX down marginally -0.1% (or -7 pts) at 6,215 (up 1.3% for week), while in France the CAC was down marginally 0.1% (or 2 pts) at 3,726 (up 1.5% for week).
Asian Markets
Asian markets closed higher for the week. The strong yen which is at 15-year highs, continues to weigh on Japanese exporters, though they did see some relief on Friday. Chinese shares trade higher on Friday, led by a rebound in major banks despite caution ahead of the release of inflation data for August on Saturday, which actually showed consumer prices accelerated at the fastest pace in nearly 2-years. The inflation reading has risen 10 consecutive months, and shows China is not slowing as quickly as first feared. In China the SSE Composite closed up 0.3% at 2,663 (up 0.3% for week), while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index was up 0.4% at 21,257 (up 1.4% for week) and in Japan the Nikkei 225 Index was up 1.6% at 9,239 (up 1.4% for week).
Commodities
The Dollar Index was flat at 82.873 on higher Euro, while the Australian Dollar last traded higher at 92.68. Commodities were generally higher.
Oil prices rose above $US74 this week, after the forecast for global oil demand for 2010 was raised and following the closure of a key pipeline carrying crude to the U.S. The benchmark crude NYMEX for September delivery was 3.0% at $76.39 (up 2.8% for week). Copper prices lower, Copper for September delivery was down -1.06% at $3.3950 (down -2.8% for week). Gold prices are around 2-month highs, are around key $US1,250 level, with December gold down -0.35% at $1,249.60 (up 0.2% for week).
Key News International Drivers Today
US – Wholesale inventories building. Companies continue to report earnings this week.
EU – Banks may need to raise EUR105 billion of extra capital under planned Basel rules.
CHINA – Chinese inflation reading has risen 10 consecutive months. Government stands firm on access to credit.
JAPAN – Japan exporters hurt as yen rose to a fresh 15-year high .
Markets Overview
Positive Week as September Rally Continues
|
Market
|
Movement
|
|
The Dow Jones Industrial Average
|
Up 0.5% (or 48 pts) at 10,463 (up 0.1% for week)
|
|
The S&P 500
|
Up 0.5% (or 5 pts) at 1,110 (up 0.5% for week)
|
|
The Nasdaq
|
Up 0.3% (or 6 pts) at 2,242 (up 0.4% for week)
|
|
|
|
|
The FTSE 100
|
Up 0.1% (or 7 pts) at 5,502 (up 1.4% for week)
|
|
The German DAX
|
Down -0.1% (or -7 pts) at 6,215 (up 1.3% for week)
|
|
The Fench CAC
|
Down 0.1% (or 2 pts) at 3,726 (up 1.5% for week)
|
|
|
|
|
The Dollar Index
|
Flat at 82.873
|
|
The Australian Dollar
|
Last traded higher at 92.68
|
|
The Commodities Index
|
Up 0.71% at 275.1
|
|
|
|
|
Crude Oil Futures
|
Up 3.0% at $76.39 (up 2.8% for week)
|
|
Gold Futures
|
Down -0.35% at $1,249.60 (up 0.2% for week)
|
|
Copper Futures
|
Down -1.06% at $3.3950 (down -2.8% for week)
|
|
SPI Futures
|
Up 0.3% (or 12 pts) at 4,577 (down -0.2% for week)
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Market
|
Movement
|
|
SSE Composite (China)
|
Up 0.3% at 2,663 (up 0.3% for week)
|
|
Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong)
|
Up 0.4% at 21,257 (up 1.4% for week)
|
|
Nikkei 225 Index (Japan)
|
Up 1.6% at 9,239 (up 1.4% for week)
|
SPI: Just Below key Level 4600 – SPI up 0.3% at 4,577 (down -0.2% for week)…
ASX News Today
The SPI Futures is just above the key resistance level of 4600 the ASX is set to open higher as the SPI Futures closed 0.3% (or 12 pts) at 4,577 (down -0.2% for week). The key levels for our index today are 4700 and 4500. M&A activity continues to drive specific stocks. The ASX is set to trade higher today. M&A activity is hotting up, particularly in the gold mining sector, however gold prices have back off record highs and will likely weigh on gold stocks in the short term. Oil prices are above the key $US75 level. Options volatilty is subdued at the moment, which gives investors access to “cheap” protection, so investors may consider taking this opportunity to protect their portfolios.
AVO- Avoca Resources the Perth-Based explorer will merge with Turkish gold producer Anatolia Minerals Development to create an intermediate global gold producer called Alacer Gold Corporation.
AXA- AXA Asia Pacific Holdings French parent has yet to give up on NAB’s bid for the local wealth manager
CCL- Coca-Cola Amatil CEO Terry Davis says the company had no interest in joining the bidding for Foster’s Group’s wine business.
COK- Cockatoo Coal says it may sell some of its Surat Basin assets in Queensland to Japan’s Mitsui & Co Ltd.
FXJ- Fairfax Media Ltd will begin charging for some of its online news content when it launches its first subscription-based smartphone apps.
GNS- Gunns CEO says that the timber company might stop logging native forests in Tasmania.
JML- Jabiru Metals the base metals miner, upgraded its mineral reserves and has increased the life of its Jaguar project in WA by 3 years to 8 years .
LLC- Lend Lease is partnering with Japan’s largest home builder, Sekisui House, to develop several master planned community and apartment projects in Australia.
NCM- Investors in Lihir Gold Ltd who sought the maximum share allocation from Newcrest Mining’s takeover bid will receive half allocation due to scaled back due to over-demand.
VBA- Virgin Blue’s proposed alliance with Air New Zealand on trans-Tasman routes has been blocked by the competition regulator.
WOW- Says Urbis report estimates new Geelong big-bax hardware store will add $30 million in sales year 1, and hit Bunnings BWP bottomline by up to 16%.
Economic Reports :
ABS – Releases July lending finance data
Hotels.com to release its Hotel Price Index today
Companies:
VBA – Virgin founder Sir Richard Branson will speak to Business today
Dividends
AXA – AXA Asia Pacific Holdings Interim 2010 Dividend payment date
CSL – CSL Limited Full year 2010 Ex-dividend date
IVC – InvoCare Ltd Interim 2010 Ex-dividend date
SXL – Southern Cross Media Full year 2010 Ex-dividend date
DOM – Dominion Mining Ltd Full year 2010 Ex-dividend date
WHC – Whitehaven Coal Full year 2010 Ex-dividend date
WTF – Wotif com Holdings Ltd Full year 2010 Ex-dividend date
WOW – Woolworths Ltd Full year 2010 Ex-dividend date
Market Summary
ASX – to open Higher
US & UK/Europe – Higher<
US ADRs – Generally Higher!!!…
BHP up 0.2% &
RIO down 0.2%;
AWC up 1.1%
ANZ up 0.5% &
NAB down 0.7%
NEM up 0.8%,
JHX down 0.2%,
NWS up 0.3%
Commodities Stock Index up 0.7%
Gold Stocks Index up 0.5%
Oil Stocks Index up 0.9%
>By Michael Hevern
Head of Research