Many markets have had shortened trading weeks, due to the May Day holiday(s), but the bulls have generally prevailed. The Aussie market (ASX200) reached 4440, which is the 50% retracement level from the sell-off this time last year to last year’s lows and we would expect investors to take a breather near-term to assess “where to from here”.
US markets have traded sideways this week and the Dow Jones blue chip index is backing off 4-year highs. Traders are looking for another catalyst to fuel the markets for a further push higher, now that the US earnings season is coming to an end. Trader mood has been dampened by weaker US economic data and disappointing ISM manufacturing readings, and selling came after the weekly jobs report on private-sector job growth in April fell substantially. Traders have been cautious after disappointing eurozone manufacturing and employment data, and a weaker-than-expected weekly jobs report, ahead of the non-farm monthly employment report due out tonight.
Eurozone markets have had a shortened trading week, but the mood has been negative as economic data is pointing to continuing troubles in the eurozone. European unemployment hit 10.9%, a 15-year high, with the German unemployment rate rising for just the second time in 15 months. Manufacturing data has also been disappointing and in Italy the purchasing managers index (PMI) dropped 43.8, highlighting concerns about the country’s manufacturing sector, while Spain and Greece saw their downturns accelerating. The banking stocks have been hit hard again, particularly those with exposure to the PIIGS economies, as the Spanish, Italian and Greek economies continue to battle their debt crisis issues. We also saw the UK economy confirming it’s in a double-dip recession.
In Asia key markets are still drifting, but are holding at or above their 50 day moving averages, with the Hong Kong market continuing to outperform. Chinese banks have been supported after Morgan Stanley analysts raised their earnings estimates for Chinese banks up to 14% for 2012 and 2013, citing lower credit costs. The materials and energy sectors continue to weigh due to concerns on gobal growth going forward.
Last week we said “In Australia the market continues to drift higher, as stocks have benefited from the positive overseas sentiment. Defensive stocks are leading the way, with Telstra at 2-year highs and the Healthcare sector pushing higher, but the materials sector continues to underperform. Banking stocks are pushing higher into their dividend and reporting season, which begins early next month. Typically the market should melt-up in the last week of the month and into the start of the new month and at this stage it is going to plan”. It is great when a plan comes together.
Well next week is going to be interesting with global economic data weakening and the US monthly jobs report due out tonight. If the US Non-Farm Payrolls report disappoints, this could be a catalyst for the markets to take a breather near term. Both the ECB and the US Federal Reserve have fallen short of announcing any further quantitative easing near-term.
In our market the RBA surprised by cutting interest rates by 50 basis points, and we have the healthcare sector pushing up against 4-year highs. Telstra has rocketed higher this week, while the banks also drifted upwards, as investors seek out stocks that can deliver consistent yield in this low rate environment. The materials sector continues to underperform on the back of lower commodity prices, due to the ratcheting back of global growth forecasts.
Commodity prices have drifted lower this week, as the US dollar has gained strength in the face of weakening economic data on global growth. Crude-oil prices eased around the $US102 level and copper has again been unable to trade above $US3.85, and is holding below its 50 and 200 moving average support. Gold prices are again testing support around $US1,635.
The Aussie market has held above its 13 and 50 day moving averages, but is backing off its 10-month resistance level, around the 4400 level again. On the S&P/ASX 200 the 4350 level is now the crucial support level and 4440 is the key level on the upside. Stocks may be looking to take a breather as we move through the bank reporting and dividend season, and the materials and energy sectors persist in underperforming.
Traders should be looking to protect their recent profits and reduce their risk by using options and warrants strategies. In last week’s Analyst’s Eye we discussed using Warrants to Boost Returns on Dividend Paying Stocks and this week Jeff discusses The Business of Trading. The D2MX Financial Advisory Services team can help with these trades. Call me on 1300 610 024 for further information. Investors should also be looking to utilise options and warrant strategies to protect their positions and profits. Options are a relatively cheap form of insurance, as volatility remains low, and you can also leverage yourself for breakout trades as they occur.
Remain attuned to the news from overseas, particularly from the eurozone and China in relation to easing policies, and the US, as markets there hover around multi-year highs. Monitor the performance of China and the US dollar for a guide to the future direction of commodities and equities prices.
The S&P/ASX 200 index is currently trading at 4404 and is holding above the key 13 day moving average near-term. Key levels for the index next week will be 4280 and 4440, with 4350 the key short term pivot level.
By Michael Hevern
DMX Retail Trading Desk
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This report was prepared by Michael Hevern. It represents the views and opinions of the author. It is not intended for use by any third party, without the approval of Michael Hevern. While this report is based on information from sources which are considered reliable, its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed reflect my judgment at this date and are subject to change. Contracting Hevern Pty Ltd is a Corporate Authorised Representative No. 408868 of D2MX Pty Limited ABN 98 113 959 596, AFSL No. 297950 (D2MX), and Michael Hevern has been appointed as an Authorised Representative of Contracting Hevern Pty Ltd. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this report are not given or endorsed by D2MX, unless otherwise indicated. The information contained in this Report is General Advice only, as the information or advice given does not take into account your particular objectives, financial situation or needs.



