Posts Tagged ‘australia recession’

Aussie dollar s rally thrills the analysts

Tuesday, May 26th, 2009

The Australian dollar s recent rally is causing analysts to describe it as being at the vanguard of a global recovery .

According to this Bloomberg report, the AUD s recent upswing is an indicator of optimism among analysts that economies worldwide are recovering.

The Aussie dollar has risen 21% since Feb 25, the fastest gain since it began freely trading in 1983. It s tipped to outpace all other top currencies.

The good signs:

  • retail sales and export figures jumped in March
  • jobless numbers dropped in April
  • the continuing growth in India and China will secure a demand for our commodities
  • Australia s recession is considered shallow compared to those of the other G-10 economies

On the other hand:

  • some analysts feel the AUD s rally doesn t have staying power
  • investors may turn instead to emerging markets with higher interest rates, such as Brazil and South Africa

Source: Market Analyser Click here for a free trial.

To get the details in the Bloomberg article, click here.

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Dodging a bullet, for now

Wednesday, March 4th, 2009

Media reports are tipping that national accounts figures released today will confirm Australia has so far avoided a recession.

A modest economic growth rate of 0.2% for the quarter is expected, which is a relatively strong performance compared with most other advanced economies. Unfortunately, this positive growth is not expected to continue much longer.

Other key figures:

  • export volumes expected to fall sharply as our trading partners are affected
  • services sector activity has slumped to new lows, affected by falling business and consumer confidence
  • retail spending reached a record high in January, buoyed by the federal government s fiscal stimulus in December

More information:

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Recessions and New Companies: Success Stories from Flagging Economies

Wednesday, February 25th, 2009

 
Who says a recession has to be all bad news?

If, as many analysts argue, Australia is heading for a recession, there is still room for opportunity and optimism for investors.

While a floundering economy might not seem like the ideal environment in which to launch a new business, there have been several high profile and highly successful companies which took on the challenge and thrived.

 
Who are these big achievers?
Back in the Panic of 1873, Thomas Edison started General Electric, proving that a great idea with mass appeal can light the way through dark economic times.

The Disney Corporation began in the 1923-24 recession. Not long after, the Great Depression of the late 1920s and 1930s saw the creation of Motorola, Revlon, Fortune Magazine and the Hewlett-Packard Development Company, which grew from a modest $538 investment.

The Eisenhower Recession of 1957 58 gave birth to the Hyatt hotel chain, Burger King and the Jim Henson Company. The 1973 Oil Crisis, which sent the US economy into a slump, produced FedEx and Microsoft, while CNN and MTV emerged as popular television alternatives during the 1980-81 recession.

And, back in Australia, John Symond started Aussie Home Loans in 1992, during the recession we had to have.

Why do they succeed?
There are various factors which enable companies to forge ahead in the face of what should be adverse conditions:

  • Many smart and motivated people find themselves suddenly unemployed in a recession, and choose to start their own business rather than join the job hunting circuit or dole queue.
  • Governments offer incentives to small businesses. Prime Minister Rudd s recent $42 billion stimulus package included assistance to businesses purchasing new assets, such as computer equipment.
  • Competitors may be weakened, reducing production levels and advertising, or even going out of business.
  • Consumers might look harder for better value, and be willing to try out new entrants in the market.
  • New entrants who are strong enough to make it through the recession are likely to emerge in a strong position once the economy picks up again.

So there is a precedent for smart people with good ideas being able to achieve something big when the broader market falters.

Why not keep an eye on the ASX s lists of recent listings and upcoming floats, and when the market turns around check back and see who s defied the trend and emerged victorious.

ASX Links
Recent Listings
Upcoming Floats

Click here to view this article as a PDF.
 

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