Posts Tagged ‘asx 200’

    • Analyst’s Eye

    Friday, June 11th, 2010

    Momentum turns around after the “Flash Crash”

    We have seen a turn around in investor psychology as a result of the “Flash Crash” and the lingering European sovereign debt malaise. The energy sector which had been offering support to the markets has also crumbled, as a result of the ongoing issues with the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.

    Last month we reviewed the global markets’ reaction to the “Flash Crash” and how it quickly tried to recover, after the extraordinary measures that the European Central Bank (ECB) had taken to implement a $1 trillion rescue package, this was in an attempt to resolve the sovereign debt issues of the PIIGS economies which has been well received by investors worldwide. We showed that all the key world markets were still in a short term downtrend, except Germany which holds its rising channel.

    The picture has still not improved in the past few weeks, as we have seen the short-term trends continue to slide and we are now seeing the longer term trends rolling over too. The US markets are now all trading below their “Flash Crash” lows and are at key support levels, which have been in place since mid-2009. The poor employment report last week triggered the markets to make lower highs and lower lows; this technically confirms the negative sentiment and loss of positive momentum in the markets. Another concerning measure is that these markets are now testing their support levels for a third time as this can result in capitulation.

    Picture1

    Table 1: World Markets Performance Review

    The ASX 200 is below key level of 4500 which has now become resistance. Germany remains the best performing market and continues to trade within its rising channel. All the other markets listed in the table are trading below their 50 day moving averages and below key support levels which are now becoming resistance.

    The table shows that except for Germany, most markets are down around 13% off their 52-week highs and down around 5% below their 50-day moving averages. The other concerning measure is that the Asian and European markets see that their 50 day moving averages having crossed (or are about to cross), below their 200 day moving averages, except for Germany. In the case of the US markets, the 50 day moving averages are now trending down and are approaching their 200 day moving averages, indicating the bears are wrestling control over these markets too.

    In Asia, China continues to underperform all other markets (as shown in the table above). The key levels to monitor on China’s Shanghai Composite Index are now 2700 and 2500 and the government is still applying the brakes to its overheated economy by tightening fiscal policy.

    Europe continues to be plagued by the sovereign debt issues of their PIIGS economies. PIIGS refers to Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain, all of which are debt laden. The German naked short selling ban and the huge move to pursue the $1 trillion rescue package by the ECB are still paying dividends, at least near term.

    Currencies are crucial to the performance of global commodities prices and given the Euro’s continued weakness against the US dollar, commodities prices are likely to remain under pressure in the near term. The next stop for the Euro appears to be around $US1.15 and then parity against the greenback. The Euro weakness and the ongoing battle over the Australian government’s proposed resource rent tax (RSPT) continue to weigh on our mining sector, until at least the Federal Elections. One interesting story overnight is that China is looking to implement its own resources tax and this could undermine the miner’s case against the RSPT.

    Volatility has been on the increase over the past quarter, which is confirming a change in investment psychology as the markets search for direction. Investors should take advantage of any pullback in volatility to open option positions to protect their portfolios.

    Our View

    All markets have lost momentum. The US markets are at key levels, while Germany is still above support. The US markets are losing their positive momentum and the 200 day moving averages and the 50 day moving averages will offer resistance near term, which signals a turn around in investor psychology.

    Economic data for Australia continues to support the Australian market, with the most recent being yesterday’s unemployment figures down at 5.2%, showing job strength within the economy. The key levels in the short term for the ASX 200 index are 4500 and 4150, while the broader trading range is 4000 to 4650. We are seeing traders and investors sell into rallies and looking to trade long when they start to see value. This is adding to trade risk and market volatility.

    Near term our markets have a bias to move lower into the end of the financial year, as investors will be looking to clean out their portfolios to offset any capital gains. The magnitude of the move lower will be guided by overseas sentiment, so you should monitor: the Euro dollar, China’s Shanghai Composite Index, the German DAX and the tech-heavy NASDAQ for any moves above or below their key levels.

    Trade this market to the long side by buying bounces off key support levels and to the short side by selling into key resistance levels as marked by the 50 day moving average, also be prepared to use options to hedge your positions.

    By Michael Hevern
    Head of Research

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    Tuesday, 1st June 2010 Morning Wrap

    Tuesday, June 1st, 2010

    Morning Market Wrap

    The U.S. and U.K. were closed overnight for holidays, giving investors little direction today. The ASX 200 finished down 7.8% for May at 4,429, this was the worst monthly performance since October 2008. Investors were concerned over European sovereign debt, the Henry Resource Tax implications and falling commodities prices during the month.

    The SPI Futures is below the key level of 4500, the ASX is set to open lower as the SPI closed down 17 points (or 0.4%) at 4,421 (up 7.8% for May). Key levels for the SPI week are 4250 and 4650.

    Expect lower trading volumes today due to the U.S. and U.K. holidays overnight; the RBA is expected to hold rates Tuesday and U.S. reports key employment numbers next Friday.

    May Review

    The month of May was dismal for all equities markets: the Dow Jones was down 7.8%; The UK FTSE was down 6.5%, the German DAX outperformed but was still down 3%, while in France the markets were down 8%. Asian markets were also down in May with China down 10% and Hong Kong down 6.5%.

    Key Drivers Overseas

    Debt concerns continue to weigh on the European markets as the Fitch Ratings agency lowered its rating on Spain’s debt to AA+ from AAA spooking markets last week. The downgrade came despite this week’s passage of austerity measures by the Spanish government.

    The Euro steadied on low volume. Oil traded up 0.6% to $US74.44 and Gold closed up 0.3% at $1216.

    Local Market Today

    The SPI Futures is below the key level of 4500 the ASX is set to open lower as the SPI closed down 17 points (or 0.4%) at 4,421 (up 7.8% for May). Key levels for the SPI week are 4250 and 4650.

    Expect lower trading volumes today due to the U.S. and U.K. holiday overnight; the RBA is expected to hold rates Tuesday and U.S. report key employment numbers next Friday.

    RBA – is set to leave rates on hold, after raising rates six times since last October from 3% to 4.5%.

    AUD – holds, strongly off 10 months lows as China eases investor concerns.

    CMJ - Shareholders have overwhelmingly approved on-market share buyback scheme.

    CHINA – takeover shopping list includes: Paladin (PDN ), Aquaris Platinum (GNS ) and PanAust (PNA ), suggests Citi.

    GNS - Gunns up sharply again on takeover speculation. Shares up 21%.

    HSP – latest offer is $5.80/share from Tenet Healthcare Corp. This is in addition to KKR and CVC Asia Pacific offers.

    VBA – Virgin shares recovered from a 9-month low after the airline lowered full year profit guidance by up to three quarters. Shares up 6.5%.

    We think the trading strategy is to accumulate, using covered calls and tight stops. Resources rent tax will continue to be topical. Use recent lows as Stop levels.

    Ny Michael Hevern
    Head of Research

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    Old Dog New Tricks – Australian Markets 2010 Preview

    Wednesday, January 20th, 2010

    The Australian markets continue to show strength. The technical structures support our view that the markets look set to trade between 4550 to 5400 this year.

    The markets have made a fantastic recovery in the past ten months having recovered 50% from the fall that resulted from the global financial crisis (GFC).

    The 5000 level is the obvious key psychological level and once that is penetrated investors will be looking for targets of 5200 then 5400. On the downside the key support is around the 4550 level, as seen on the monthly chart below:

    Key drivers for the markets in 2010 include:

    – Catalysts

    • Earning reports at least early in the year will have lower thresholds when compared to the previous corresponding period (pcp), providing support.
    • Global demand for resources is likely to continue (especially from China).
    • Merger and acquisition activity are likely to be a primary focus this year.
    • IPO s are likely to be a focus this year.

    - Headwinds

    • Rising interest rates.
    • Monetary tightening in the Chinese economy.
    • US economy still in trouble.
    • Impact from central banks unwinding their generous financial stimulus packages.
    • Problems in Europe with economies such as Greece and Spain severely impacted for the GFC.

    Our View

    The ASX market continues to consolidate the gains of 2009 and looks set to track higher this year, with the sectors that lead in the recovery from the global financial crisis likely to continue to outperform in 2010. The 5000 level is the obvious key psychological level and once that is penetrated investors will be looking for targets of 5200 then 5400.

    Michael Hevern
    Head of Research

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    Top 200 companies to lose 3% value with ETS

    Wednesday, December 16th, 2009

    New research suggests the proposed ETS scheme would wipe off 3% of the market value of the S&P ASX 200.

    The analysis found that the amendments made to the government’s CPRS policy were better for business, but that Australia’s top 200 companies had “significant exposure to carbon risk”.

    Indirect expenses such as electricity and supply chain costs would account for 60% of the S&P ASX 200′s total carbon liability, adding $3.1 billion in expense over 10 years.

    Food & Staples Retailing, Energy, Transportation and Materials are the industries facing the highest risk.

    The amended CPRS policy provides an extra $1.6 billion, or $146 million annually in subsidies to help ease the pain.

    S&P ASX 200

    Chart source: Market Analyser. Register now for a free charting software trial!

    For more on this story:

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    Old Dogs New Tricks – Market Strength Can The Run Continue?

    Wednesday, November 18th, 2009

    Introduction

    The ASX 200 has had a great run since July through to the October peak, up strongly over 30%. The question that many investors are asking is whether this run can continue? To review this we have assessed the market momentum, on long term and medium term timeframes.

    Global Market Performances

    Globally there are mixed signals from overseas markets (detailed in the table below):

    Table 1: Performance of World Markets since October 2009 (as at 12 Nov 09)

    This table shows that the European markets are lagging the US indices on their recovery from their recent monthly highs. Note that the Japanese economy continues to underperform other major economies as it is being hit by falling demand both domestically and in its export markets.

    The recent recovery has been underpinned by China, closely followed by the US as illustrated in the chart below. Both China and the US are in positive territory, whilst other markets are still under water.

    Figure 2: Performance of World Markets since October 2009 (as at 12 Nov 09)

    ASX Market Performance

    The ASX200 has jumped strongly off its recent pullback but has failed to trade above its October highs as seen in the chart below. This is a sign of falling momentum.

    Figure 1: ASX 200 Performance

    Market Strength Gauge

    The underlying strength of ASX market can be gauged by examining the strength of the stocks within the individual indices. We have examined the key stocks within the Australian share market by examining the S&P ASX 20 (ASX20) through to S&P ASX 200 (ASX200), to gauge long term and medium term relative strength.

    Longer Term Market Strength

    We examined the current share prices relative to their 200 day moving average. This moving average is generally considered to be the one that fund managers use to highlight when it is time to reassess a company, and decide whether it is time to start accumulating a particular stock.

    Figure 3: Percentage of Index Trading Above Long Term Moving Average (12 Nov 09)

    The above chart indicates that the underlying market strength in the longer term is strongly bullish with around 85% of the key stocks on the ASX above their long term moving average. Drilling down a little further you see that over 75% of the key stocks are above their longer term moving average and their 200 day moving average has turned up in the past 15 days, i.e. indicating resilience in the face of the recent retracement.

    Medium Term Market Strength

    To determine the market strength in the medium term we examined the current share prices relative to their 50 day moving average. This moving average is generally used by investors to confirm that accumulation is happening on a particular stock.

    Figure 4: Percentage of Index Trading Medium Term Moving Average (12 Nov 09)

    The above chart illustrates that the underlying market strength in the medium term is not as bullish with only around 30% of the key stocks on the ASX above their medium term moving average. Drilling down a little further we see that only around 25% of the key stocks are above their medium term moving average and their 50 day moving average has turned up in the past 15 days i.e. indicating that they are rebounding from their recent retracement.

    Conclusions

    A key takeaway from this study is that world markets are relying on both the China and the US to continue to underpin the strength in equity markets this year. Both Asian and European markets have been lagging the performance of China and the US.

    We can also deduce from this study that even though we have seen underlying strength of the key stocks within the ASX relative to their longer term timeframes, we do appear to have turned the corner. However we are yet to see confirmation of the strength in the relative performance of these key stocks in the medium term. For this medium term confirmation we would want to see at least 50% of the key stocks trading above their medium term moving average with an upward bias in the shorter term.

    The trading strategy to adopt in the current market conditions is to trade in the direction of the underlying strength taking profits regularly, until such time as the medium term confirmation (as discussed above) is achieved. Upon confirmation traders can look to hold positions for the medium term. If markets trade through their recent retracement level it will be time to reassess this strategy.

    Keep up to date with market developments through MDS Financial Research.

    By Michael Hevern
    Head of Research

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    Old Dog New Tricks – Where to now?

    Wednesday, September 16th, 2009

    Lehmans Brothers Collapse – 12 months on

    The markets and global economies have staged a remarkable recovery from the dim days of this time last year as the world financial markets stared down the abyss.

    The collapse of Lehman Brothers brought about a systemic collapse of the global financial systems. The US Government allowed Lehman to fail, after bailing out Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, but at the time did not realise the catastrophic consequences of such a decision. Globalisation has meant that the global financial systems had become so inter connected world wide, the fallout from this crisis reverberated across every continent.

    The systemic collapse of the US financial system meant that banks worldwide were not prepared to lend to each other, and this resulted in a freezing of the credit markets, which in turn meant that corporations ran out of funding to carry on their business operations.

    Central Governments around the world had to pour money into their respective economies, prop up their banking systems and provide banking guarantees to ensure the credit markets began resuming normal operations.

    To date these measures have been extremely successful. However there are concerns that many governments have effectively had to nationalise significant portions of their banking systems, at huge costs to the respective taxpayers. At some point these governments will have to turn off the stimulus spending that has seen the world economies step back from the abyss, and this will require a fine balancing act between government intervention and the capitalist systems to ensure the economies continue to function normally. At the recent G-20 meeting, finance ministers indicated that stimulus spending would continue as long as necessary.

    The Australian Economy Now

    Australia may come out of the financial crisis as the only developed country to avoid a recession. With the US, UK, European and Asian economies falling off a cliff soon after share markets crashed late last year.

    In Europe, recessions in France and Germany officially ended last quarter, but their real recovery is expected to be slow and difficult. The UK economy has dropped 5.5 per cent over the past year which is the largest since their records started in 1955. The US economy has shrunk for an annual decline of 1 per cent.

    Australia has fared well in comparison. China our key trading partner for our exports and resources is faring even better with economic growth at 7.9 per cent.

    GDP

    Australia has avoided recession by posting positive growth figures over the past two quarters, with GDP better-than expected growth of 0.6 per cent in the June quarter. This positive figure means the economy is growing, consumers are spending and jobs are being created. GDP is a key measure of just how Australia is faring through the global downturn, it tells us if the economy is growing or shrinking, by measuring the number of goods and services bought and sold.

    The latest national accounts show Australia has been the best performing advanced economy over the past year according to Treasure Wayne Swan.

    Interest Rates

    Interest rates are at 49 year lows at 3.0 per cent, having come down from 7.0 per cent this time last year. There may be head winds on the horizon as the Reserve Bank Governor Glenn Stevens has said the only way for rates is up, calling 3 per cent an emergency level cash rate.

    Aussie Dollar

    The Aussie dollar (AUD) peaked at 96.3 mid last year (just before the Lehman collapse). The AUD has had a great run against the US dollar since bottoming in February at 65.7 cents. It looks set to retest those levels in the near term, so long as the US dollar continues to deflate and Chinese investment continues to pour into Australia.

    Unemployment

    Unemployment has remained steady at 5.8% for the past three months, however there are concerns here are number of hours worked and participation rates have dropped. Our unemployment rate fares very well against other key developed economies including: UK at 7.7%; US at 9.7%; and Spain at 18.5%.

    Where to now?

    A perspective on the predicament that the ASX has faced since the start of the global financial crisis is illustrated in this chart. The index has travelled from an all time high of 6897 in October 2007, all the way down to 2982 earlier this year.

    Figure: ASX 200 Chart of 2003 to now

    The Australian economy has fared well in comparison to other developed countries in the world. We still have reasonable unemployment levels, with an expanding economy (GDP up 0.6% for the June quarter), and we have a resource base which is the envy of many.

    China is eagerly consuming Australian resources and is keen to acquire and/or take major stakes in our mining and exploration companies in order to sure up supplies of resources to underpin their growth for the next couple of decades. The other driver for Chinese investments is the fact that the US dollar is deflating. Chinese government is one of the biggest holders of US dollars, so they are keen to exchange these dollars for hard assets as quickly as possible. Refer to the What’s Hot article for some stocks to watch in this space.

    The ASX200 index looks set to make a move towards the 5000 level, which would mark a 50% retracement of the total move from October 2007 through to February 2009. There may be a pull back in the interim, but look for near term support around the 4250 level. If this level fails then the next support level would be around 3800. Keep an eye on the Chinese market which has underpinned the move of both Australia and the US markets since October last year.

    By Micheal Hevern
    Head of Research

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    Message from the Chief – July 2009

    Wednesday, July 15th, 2009
  • Introducing Block Rate Trading Rates to CFD Traders
  • End of Financial Year – thank you
  • TDO launches new CFD service – plus a $100 gift voucher
  • A quick year in review
  • MORE POWER – Servers on the way

    • End of Financial Year thank you.

    The financial year has come and nobody can say it was a boring year. Before I launch into this months article, I would like to welcome those of you who took advantage of the End of Financial Year offer, of which there were 500 of you back for another 12 months. It is a great testament to the stock market tools that we provide and the effort our staff put in to ensuring you get the best possible service. It is also great to see that a lot of you have been with our company for five or more years and we would like to take this opportunity to thank you for your continued support.

    TDO Launches new CFD service plus a $100 gift voucher

    The team at TDO have always been known for the unique and fair way that they go about their business, making trading in a cost effective manner possible for the everyday trader.

    Until now this only applied to equities/ options and warrant customers. But the staff at TDO have joined forces with a market leader MF Global , to launch a new CFD business utilising the TDO unique Block Rate Trading pricing structure, to obtain better pricing for CFD traders.

    Click to check out the great Block Rate Trading Brokerage Rates.

    As a special offer , the first ten people to open an account and post a reply to this article referencing your pending application number (this will not be disclosed publicly) will be given a $100 gift voucher for the Educated Investor book shop (once your account is opened and funded).

    A great aspect of this new offer is that for those of you using the Market Analyser software, you will be able to trade from within Market Analyser, therefore eliminating the requirement for additional and sometimes very costly software packages.

    Tom Boland, the Manager of Trader Dealer, has told me that there has been a great deal of demand for CFD trading from our existing TDO customers, so I am quite keen to hear your thoughts on our new service.

    He also advised me that Trader Dealer has maintained the trade and get your software and data for free policy and pointed out that this service is very unique due to the fact that you are able to collate your Equity, Warrant, Option and CFD trades together in order to qualify.

    We expect the unique Block Rate Trading rates to bring a new dimension to the way CFD brokerage is charged, and when you couple the pricing with what Trader Dealer is really known for, awesome customer service, I think Tom and his team are going to do a fantastic job of servicing the CFD traders among us.

    A quick year in review

    It has been widely reported that the market has had an absolutely shocking run over the last 12 months, so I thought I would try and give you a positive perspective on the market and look at the top 5 shares from within the ASX 200 constituents.

    I hope to show you how, with a little bit of timing and a whole lot of luck, you could have made a handsome return over the last 12 months. The criteria for my search was the largest return that could have been achieved from any stock in the ASX200 in the last 12 months, the scan was from the 1 July 2008 and the close price as of the 13 July 2009, so I was searching for the shares that had increased the most from their 52 week low and the results are amazing.

    Staggeringly from our sample of 200 shares, more than 106 shares increased more than 50% from their low and the standouts were as follows:-

    Company

    %Return from low

    Pacific Brands (PBG.AX)

    581.65%

    NRW Holdings (NWH.AX)

    537.04%

    Medusa Mining (MML.AX)

    504.88%

    Alesco Corp (ALS.AX)

    438.46

    Karoon Gas Aus (KAR.AX)

    407.78%

    Before you go into the market and think that I have found a great stock trading strategy, hold on. Buying low doesn t always payoff and a few examples in the list that didn t fair too well on the buy low and hope approach, were ABC Learning, Allco, Babcock and Brown along with a host of listed property companies.

    The other thing to consider when looking at this information is that the ASX200 is consistently reshuffled and it is based on the current shares in the ASX200 and it doesn t pay any regard to the shares that have actually dropped from the ASX200 this year.

    Out of interest I have posted the full list of equities in the ASX200 which increased more than 50% in the last 12 months. To see the the full list please click here

    MORE POWER Servers on the way

    This month saw us take delivery of 8 new Dell Servers, which once in production will ensure a more stable environment for our applications to run from, and will also ensure that the current growth we are experiencing will not interrupt the service we have been supplying to our existing customers.

    These servers are part of a wider upgrade which has been underway, lead by our Chief Information Officer Craig Foley, and the Service Delivery and Programming Team, to implement a new Reuters feed within our organisation that is currently only been used by one of the largest proprietary trading desks in Australia, this ensures that you are going to receive the best possible data in the market which will lead to a whole range of new experiences, we hope to launch to you in the next 6 months.

    In the meantime as these improvements are being implemented we thank you for your patience and would love to hear your feedback once you try our new services. We are also looking for some customers to try out our new application, so if you would like to be one of our guinea pigs please reply to this post.

    Keep trading and bye for now.

    Damian Isbister

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    Message from the Chief – ASX Come Back Kings!

    Wednesday, July 15th, 2009

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    What's Hot: ASX 200, where to now?

    Wednesday, April 15th, 2009

    The great bear market rally we have experienced since early March gives us a great opportunity to take time to reflect upon our investment strategy going forward.

    The ASX 200 has been in a downward spiral since mid 2007 (as shown on this monthly chart). I have drawn the Fibonacci retracement levels on the right hand side of the chart, to illustrate key levels that will offer resistance on any move up.

    Figure: ASX 200 2003 to 2009 Monthly Chart

    Drilling down to the weekly chart you can see the decline in the ASX 200 bottomed around 3120 representing an over 80% retracement from the bull market run from the 2003 trough to the 2007 peak.

    Figure: ASX 200 2007 to 2009 Weekly Chart

    The market is currently running into resistance around the 3800 level and we would want to see a weekly close above 3850 to confirm a turnaround in market sentiment. My view is that we are experiencing a bear market rally, which typically results in an around 20% recovery and generally lasts anywhere up to 45 days.

    Drilling down to the daily chart you can see that an upward trending channel has developed since early March. The market is running in resistance and the key levels to the upside are 3800 then 4000. A close below 3600 would signal the bears are assuming control and the tipping point to trigger a trade to the short side would be a close below 3550. Should this tipping point be broken we would expect a pullback towards 3400 and if that level is broken a retest of the recent low is likely.

    Figure: ASX 200 2009 Year to Date Daily Chart

    Keys factors likely to impact on market direction in the near term:

    1. US companies are starting to report their quarterly earnings. This began this week and continues in earnest next week. The focus will be on the forecast earnings.
    2. International Monetary Fund (IMF) is expected to report that there is $US4 trillion of toxic debt (on 20th April). This must be unwound at some point.
    3. RBA cut interest rates on April 7 by 25 bps to 3%, however Australian banks are unwilling to fully pass this on to their customers. This indicates that credit and debt funding is still hard to access and the credit crisis is still impacting on the Australian economy and companies.
    4. G-20 headlined last week that they would back a massive $US1 trillion global bailout package. However the devil is in the detail (as the Obama Administration found with the TARP package). Asset quality and debt levels are not equal among different counter parties.

    Call to Action

    • Only trade liquid stocks. A buyer s drought can play havoc with your bottom line.
    • Only trade stocks with solid balance sheets and positive earnings prospects.
    • Take profits as they arise.
    • Do not allow your profits from the recent run to evaporate.
    • Reduce exposure to more risky assets. Debt and credit quality are key issues.
    • Credit will remain tight for the foreseeable future.
    • Rebalance your portfolio: only include upwardly trending stocks in long portfolios.
    • Consider balancing your portfolio with Long and Short positions.
    • Actively manage your portfolio, by introducing option strategies into your portfolio (or simply buy some put protection for your positions).

    The bear market rally we have experienced in the past month has been great, but do not get complacent and take this opportunity to replace and protect your portfolio. Our MDS Financial Research report will inform you when it is time to trade.

    By Michael Hevern

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