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  • Which Stocks are Potential Comeback Candidates?

    Friday, December 2nd, 2011

    The Australian market has pulled back since its spectacular run in October this year, when the ASX/S&P 200 climbed a staggering 15 percent. In light of this you may wish to find stocks that are likely to stage a comeback in the near term.

    In our recent article on identifying stocks with pullback potential we highlighted three candidates due for a pullback, and anyone who followed those ideas could have picked up between 5% and 12% on these trades over the past few weeks.

    Market Analyser Can Help

    You can use the Market Analyser software to identify keys stocks which are indicating they’re due for a comeback.

    Start by using the Watchlist Wizard tool to quickly create a watchlist of stocks from the ASX Top 300. (For help with this tool check this post.)

    We can then use the Prealerts scanner to identify stocks that indicate there is “accumulation” taking place, meaning the stock is being picked up by stronger hands as we run into the end of the year.

    A scan yesterday produced the following list:
    Accumulation scan in the Market Analyser

    As you can see there are a number of stocks that are currently undergoing accumulation and could offer a potential buy signals. You may want to research these companies further before entering a trade.

    The effectiveness of this scan depends on the current trend of the underlying stock and we have illustrated this in the following three candidates that came up in the scan in the past couple of days:

    1) ANZ Bank (ANZ)
    2) Wesfarmers (WES)
    3) S&P/ASX 200 Index (XJO)

    Note that you can also use volume as a confirmation for the buy signal, as you would be looking for volume to pick up as the prices rise.

    ANZ Bank (ANZ)

    ANZ is a major Australian-based bank operating retail and business banking franchises throughout Australia, New Zealand and the South Pacific. ANZ’s goal is to become Australasia’s leading, most respected and fastest growing major bank. Strategic expansion in Asia differentiates ANZ from its peers, and ANZ CEO Mike Smith has said that he expects 30 percent of its income to come from the Asia-Pacific unit by 2017.

    ANZ Bank Chart with Accumulation Indicator

    You can see that the Prealerts worked pretty well for ANZ earlier in the year. Even though the overall market was trending down, the Prealerts gave five successful signals that ANZ was due for a bounce. When the stock price was trading into a potential support zone the Prealerts offered a great signal of when the stock price was likely to bounce. ANZ has now surged 8 percent since the signal.

    Wesfarmers (WES)

    Wesfarmers Limited (WES) is a diversified business covering supermarkets, department stores, home improvement and office supplies, coal mining, insurance, chemicals, energy, fertilisers, industrial and safety products.

    Wesfarmers Chart with Accumulation Indicator

    Wesfarmers has been trading sideways for the past four months and the Prealerts indicator had given a good signal that the share price was due for a comeback. If you took this signal you would be up around 3.5% in two days and would be watching carefully for price action around the $31.30 level, which had been the key support level in the past month.

    S&P/ASX 200 Index (XJO)

    Since mid-November the S&P/ASX 200 Index had been sold-down heavily with the all negative sentiment over the eurozone debt crisis, but the index appeared to be due for a relief rally.

    S&P/ASX 200 Chart with Accumulation Indicator

    Again the Prealert scan has given some great signals in the past six months. There was another signal in the middle of last week which suggested a comeback was due and the index has since risen 5.5%. We would now be monitoring price action around the key pivot level of 4180.

    Summary

    Utilise the Prealerts features in Market Analyser to scan the markets for your specific trade selection criteria. You will save time and identify some likely comeback candidates.

    Disclaimer: The information provided within this article is not a recommendation to trade a specific stock, but is intended for educational purposes only.

    By Michael Hevern
    Investment Adviser

    For Buy and Sell recommendations on ASX listed companies register for a FREE trial of MDS Financial Research. Subscribers are in successful trades for ANZ, BHP, XJO, NAB and RIO to name a few of the recommendations over the past week.

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    Which Stocks Are Ready To Pull Back?

    Friday, November 18th, 2011

    The overall Australian market had a spectacular run in October this year, up a staggering 15 percent from trough to peak on the ASX/S&P 200. In light of this you may wish to ask the experts what stocks are likely to pull back in the new term.

    Market Analyser Can Help

    You can use the Market Analyser software to identify keys stocks which are indicating that they’re due for a pull back.

    Start by using the Watchlist Wizard tool to quickly create a watchlist of stocks from the ASX Top 300. (See below for instructions on using the Watchlist Wizard.)

    We can then use the Prealerts scanner available to Market Analyser users to identify stocks that indicate there is “distribution” taking place, as stock is offloaded into the weaker hands.

    Set up this scan through the Analyser Wizard, a handy tool within the Market Analyser allowing you to access the Prealerts indicators. For help with this tool check this post.

    Market Analyser: Selecting the Analyser Tool

    Yesterday’s scan produced the following list:

    Market Analyser: Distribution Scan

    As you can see there are a number of stocks that are currently undergoing distribution and could offer a potential sell signal. You may want to research these companies further before entering a trade.

    The effectiveness of this scan depends on the current trend of the underlying stock, and we have illustrated this in the following three candidates which came up in a recent scan:

    1) AWE Limited (AWE)
    2) Metcash (MTS)
    3) Spotless (SPT)

    Note that you can also use volume as a confirmation of the sell signal, as you would be looking for volume to pick up as the share price falls.

    AWE Limited (AWE)

    AWE (formerly Australian Worldwide Exploration Limited) is engaged in exploration, development and production of oil, gas and condensate primarily in Australia and New Zealand. AWE concentrates on exploration and appraisal-type assets, in regions of proven prospectivity and where there is a high chance of commercial success.

    Market Analyser Scan - AWE Limited

    You can see that the Prealerts worked fabulously for AWE earlier in the year, giving four winning sell signals when the general trend of the stock was down. Now that the stock price is attempting to recover, the Prealerts offer a good signal of when the stock price is likely to take a pause. AWE is now at a key resistance level, but you would want the stock price to trade below the previous swing to confirm a sell signal.

    Metcash (MTS)

    Metcash Limited (formerly Metcash Trading) is a wholesale distribution and marketing company specialising in grocery, fresh produce, liquor, hardware and other fast-moving consumer goods. MTS has four business units: IGA Distribution, Campbells Wholesale, Australian Liquor Marketers and Mitre 10.

    Market Analyser Scan - Metcash Limited

    Metcash has been trading sideways for the past couple of months and the Prealerts signal has given a great signal that the share prices was due for a pull back. If you took this signal you would be up 4.5% in two days and would be watching carefully for price action around the $4.10 level which has been the key support level for the past couple of months.

    Spotless Group (SPT)

    Spotless Group Limited is engaged in the provision and outsourcing of labour-based services in Australia, NZ and USA. Their Retailer Services division provides hanger systems, labels and packaging to the garment manufacturing and retail industries worldwide. Facility Services provides facilities management and support services like cleaning, food, linen and garment services in Australia and NZ.

    Market Analyser Scan - Spotless Group

    Again the Prealert scan gave a great signal back in mid-May. There was another signal in early October which pre-empted a sideways move for 3 weeks, but now we have a signal in as the share price finds resistance at multi-year highs, and offers a low risk sell signal. Note that Spotless Group has confirmed it has received a $698 million takeover proposal (at $2.63 per share) from buyout firm Pacific Equity Partners, but says its directors view the bid as too low. The bid from PEP comes six months after Spotless rejected a $657 million offer from US buyout giant Blackstone Group.

    Summary

    Utilise the Prealerts features in Market Analyser to scan the markets for your specific trade selection criteria. You will save time and identify some likely pullback candidates.

    By Michael Hevern
    Investment Adviser

    For Buy and Sell recommendations on ASX listed companies register for a FREE trial of MDS Financial Research.

    Instructions – Using the Watchlist Wizard

    1. In Market Analyser, open a watchlist window by selecting Menu > Watchlist
    2. Click on the Watchlists item on the top menu bar, and select Watchlist Wizard.
    3. In the Watchlist Wizard window click Next, select Australia from the Countries list, then select ASX Top 300 from the Available Watchlists list on the right of the window.
    4. Click the Update button. Your new ASX Top 300 watchlist will now be available from your watchlist window.

    Disclaimer: The information provided within this article is not an invitation to trade a specific stock, but is intended for educational purposes only.

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    Finding True Performers in the Market

    Friday, September 30th, 2011

    I was talking to some traders recently who were upset that the companies they held were not doing well. At the same time the markets were lower and the question I was asked was how much the market was influencing the performance of the shares. Fortunately there is a very simple way to answer that question using Market Analyser and the Overlay Security function.

    A rising tide is said to lift all boats, so if the market is going up most shares go up and when the market is falling most shares go down. The overlay allows us to pick out the true performers by comparing their performance to the market.

    The Overlay Security feature in the Market Analyser software

    From the Standard Indicators list, click on Overlay Security, then type in the XCode of the security you want to compare to. .AXJO is the Aussie 200 index which is representative of the Australian market. You are not limited to comparing your shares to the market as a whole, you could compare your shares to the sector, gold or even another share.

    Overlay of BHP and the XJO in Market Analyser

    In the overlay chart above of BHP versus .AXJO you can see that BHP follows the index very closely. This is hardly surprising given that BHP makes up 15% of the index, so a move in BHP will have a significant impact on the index.

    Consider the performance of some other shares that have recently featured in the ASX Company News section of the Trader Dealer blog.

    Overlay of Castlemaine Gold and the XJO in Market Analyser

    Castlemaine Goldfields (CGT) was certainly outperforming the market strongly through July and August, but currently is falling in line with the market.

    Overlay of Sedgman and the XJO in Market Analyser

    Sedgman (SDM) fluctuated between strong outperformance in August to underperformance during late September.

    Overlay of GoConnect and the XJO in Market Analyser

    GoConnect (GCN) is currently outperforming the market quite nicely.

    We can compare sectors to the index as well and the two strongest performers at the moment are the Health Care and Consumer Staples sectors. These sectors are considered defensive, with investors buying into these sectors when they fear that the economy is weak, because regardless of how bad things get we all have to eat and when medical attention is required it is not usually a choice.

    You can use the Overlay Security tool in Market Analyser to strip away the forest so you can examine the trees that are ripe for harvesting.

    By Jeff Cartridge
    Education Manager

    Try this feature for yourself!

    Download a free trial of the Market Analyser today.

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    Using Chart Templates in the Market Analyser Software

    Friday, September 16th, 2011

    Using templates in the Market Analyser software is an easy way to quickly scan through your shares and identify trading opportunities for today.

    You can create your own templates, or use the preset templates in Market Analyser to view your charts with all your favourite indicators automatically applied.

    At the bottom of your chart you will find a range of templates that have been pre-set for you. Click between the templates to view different overlaid indicators and find the right combination for your style of analysis.

    Chart tabs in Market Analyser

    Starting with a blank chart you can create your own template by overlaying different indicators. Put all your favourite indicators onto the blank chart. Once you have the chart looking the way you want it to be displayed, right click on the chart and click Save New Template.

    Saving a Chart Template in Market Analyser

    Now that you have created a new chart you can apply this template to a number of shares that you have in a watchlist. To do this right click on the chart and click Select Watchlist, then click on the watchlist you wish to apply the template to.

    Apply Chart Templates to a Watchlist in Market Analyser

    Now click on Display Next X Code from watchlist (the third blue circle on the chart tool bar). Using this button you can move through the securities in the selected watchlist.

    Display the Next Code on Your Watchlist

    Using templates, you can look at all the different shares with the same indicators to identify those shares that stand out as trading opportunities for today.

    By Jeff Cartridge
    Education Manager

    More Tutorials

    Market Analyser has an extensive range of chart tools so you can determine the best functionality
    for your trading requirements. Tutorials describing the features available can be found under the Help menu within the Market Analyser software.

    Free Software Trial

    Not a Market Analyser client? Visit the website to find out more about Market Analyser’s features and to download a free software trial.

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    Market Data for Your Website

    Monday, August 29th, 2011

    Display share prices on your website or mobile device

    If you’re involved in running a website or blog you might be interested in finding out how easy it is to display share prices on your site.

    Our sister company Bourse Data has launched a new service for supplying market data feeds and investor relations services to websites, mobile applications and proprietary trading software.

    Bourse Commercial has been supplying Australian and New Zealand stock market data and information for over 15 years, and has now teamed up with Thomson Reuters to offer an even wider range of data options.

    Jazz up your website with a stock ticker, shareholder relations page or indices widget, or get a custom-built data feed to plug in to your trading software.

    Find out more here!

    Market Data from Bourse Commercial

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    NEW: MetaStock End of Day Data Service

    Thursday, July 28th, 2011

    NOT JUST A DATA FEED
    It’s a Complete End of Day Data Service

    In great news for users of MetaStock software and other end of day data charting programs, our sister company Bourse Data has just launched a new tool to make downloading and importing end of day easier than ever.

    Free Trial: MetaStock End of Day Data Service
    Here’s a taste of what you get:

    * Accurate, fully adjusted ASX, NZX and World Indices data (choose the subscription to suit you)
    * An easy-to-use Data Downloader program which takes the hassle out of importing your data
    * Data compatible with MetaStock version 7+, and charting tools using .csv files
    * Friendly customer support via phone and email
    * 10+ years of historical data

    So if you’re using MetaStock (or another end-of-day data tool requiring .csv files) we encourage you try it for free for 14 days or call 1300 363 766 to find out more about it.

    www.metastockeoddata.com.au

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    Identifying What’s Hot and What’s Not

    Friday, July 1st, 2011

    The Heat Map display in Market Analyser is a fantastic way to identify the hot shares on any given day, and also the shares that are not so hot. The Heat Map takes an enormous amount of data and presents it in a simple-to-view format. To access this feature go to the Market Analyser Menu button, select Tools, then Heat Map. Once you are in the Heat Map window you can select the sector you want to examine more closely with a click on the left hand menu.

    The Heat Map displays price movements for the day as well as the volume traded. The higher the volume is, the larger the size of the box, and the more movement, the brighter the colour. Today the strongest performer in the Materials sector was Renison (RSN). Simply double click on this square and you will see a chart of RSN displayed in Market Analyser. RSN (shown in the chart below) has a huge volume spike showing in the chart today, but it is also a very low-priced share, which means strong moves are more likely to occur. The shape of the candlesticks pattern here shows evidence of a share that normally trades in very low volumes, and on some days there is no volume at all.

    Market Analyser Chart - RSN

    Often you will find the biggest movers among these low volume shares, or illiquid shares as they are often called, but it is usually not practical to trade these shares. Buying can be easy, but trying to sell when there are no interested buyers can be very costly. You can exclude an individual share from the Heat Map, with a right click on the box of the share you wish to exclude. This way you could drop out RSN and redraw the map to identify other hot shares. You can reload the sector to reinstate all the shares.

    Filter Shares from Your Heat Map

    There are two other shares in the top right corner of the Heat Map that have had strong moves today: Paperlinx (PPX) and Cougar (CGM). Taking a look at the charts of these shares, with a double click on the appropriate box in the Heat Map, provides an interesting perspective.

    Use Market Analyser's Heat Map to Find Interesting Shares

    Cougar has been climbing higher more rapidly each day, resulting in a parabolic move to the upside. Buying after such a strong move has a very poor risk reward. While the share can continue higher, the risk is that the share pulls back sharply, resulting in a losing trade. Paperlinx would appear to have broken out of a significant down trend and is climbing higher. You can do more research on each of these shares by checking out if there were any related announcements made for these companies today.

    The Heat Map can also be applied to any watchlist you have created, allowing you to identify the hot shares among the shares you wish to follow. Right click on the watchlist, and then click Create Heat Map. It’s that easy to identify which shares are hot and which are not with Market Analyser.

    By Jeff Cartridge

    Sign up for a free trial of Market Analyser Gold, or for more information take a tour of the software.

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    Counter Trend Versus Trend Trading

    Friday, June 17th, 2011

    What was your initial reaction when you woke up yesterday and saw that oil had fallen $5 or over 4%? Did you immediately place an order to buy Woodside Petroleum, or Oil Search or Santos? Or instead were you rushing to hit the sell button?

    There are many different reactions that are possible when news hits the airwaves, but your trading is better if focused on pursuing a consistent strategy.

    The traders that rushed out to buy are likely to be counter trend traders or contrarians, buying when everyone else is selling. To do this, these traders rely on determining oversold market conditions and buying when these occur. One possible way to do this is to use Bollinger Bands or Money Flow Index to determine when the share is oversold, and place buy orders according to these guidelines.

    Santos in the above chart has reached an oversold condition touching the lower Bollinger Band, but has not quite moved into oversold territory on the Money Flow Index. When you look at the same chart of Woodside Petroleum, it clearly shows oversold conditions on both indicators. This would have the counter trend traders rushing to buy. It is however best to wait until a change of trend occurs as oversold conditions can become more oversold.

    If a trend develops then the oversold conditions can continue for some time. In this case the trend traders step up to the plate and count on the trend continuing. Using the MACD to identify the trend in Woodside Petroleum the recent down trend paused for a few days before continuing on its way recently as the blue line crossed below the black line.

    Oil Search on the other hand, saw the MACD turn higher, signalling a period of consolidation. No trade today, for the trend traders in Oil Search.

    Now you might at this point be starting to get confused. The counter trend traders are buying Woodside, while the trend traders are selling. So what is the best approach? The answer to this question is both. Any strategy that is consistently followed will be profitable over a period of time. There is no guarantee that either trader will make money on this trade, but by consistently following a strategy you are likely to make money in the long term.

    Right now my personal view is the trend traders may have an edge as the market heads lower. The Federal Reserve has halted the printing of money (Quantitative Easing, or QE2 for short), the situation in Greece seems about to reach a crisis point as a bailout package cannot be agreed on, and a sharp turnaround in the US dollar is likely as the Euro stumbles. There are signs of a slowing economy in the US and China is still attempting to slow down its own economy. All of these factors, along with the high prices of oil at present, could sustain a down trend for some time.

    By Jeff Cartridge
    Education Manager

    The charts in the above article are taken from The Bourse charting and market data software. You can sign up for a 14 day free trial of The Bourse by visiting the Bourse Data website.

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    Using Market Analyser to Identify Some Gems in the Rough

    Friday, June 10th, 2011

    The overall Australian market has delivered a pretty dismal performance this year and is down 5 percent year-to-date on the ASX/S&P 200. Despite these conditions there are ways to find stocks with potential.

    Take A Closer Look at the Energy Sector

    The latter half of the calendar year is typically good for energy prices, so if crude oil can remain above the $US95 per barrel mark, then this should provide support for our energy sector near term.

    The energy sector has managed to produce some modest gains and with the crude oil price still hovering around the $US100 mark, stock prices are getting some support.

    This week OPEC (The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) met and failed to agree on any increases in production near-term, which again should be supportive of crude oil prices.

    Market Analyser Can Help

    You can use the Market Analyser software to identify keys stocks that are exhibiting positive momentum, even though the broader market has been in the doldrums.

    Start by using the Watchlist Wizard tool to quickly create a watchlist of stocks from the ASX’s Energy GICS sector. (See below for instructions on using the Watchlist Wizard).

    We can then use a simple moving average scan to identify energy stocks that are showing positive momentum. In this sample scan we will look for stocks where the 5 day moving average (MAv) is above the 13 day moving average, which is above the 21 day and the 50 day moving average.

    Set up this scan through the Analyser Wizard, a handy tool within the Market Analyser allowing you to easily build custom indicators. For help with this tool check this recent post.

    Analyser Wizard in the Market Analyser software

    The scan produced the following list:

    These are obviously stocks that are currently in play. You may want to research these companies further before entering a trade.

    A sample chart of one of the stocks from the above scan is Linc Energy:

    Summary

    Utilitse the features in Market Analyser to scan the markets for your specific trade selection criteria. You will save time and perhaps identify some gems.

    For Buy and Sell recommendations on ASX listed companies register for a FREE trial of MDS Financial Research.

    Instructions – Using the Watchlist Wizard

    1. In Market Analyser, open a watchlist window by selecting Menu > Watchlist
    2. Click on the Watchlists item on the top menu bar, and select Watchlist Wizard.
    3. In the Watchlist Wizard window click Next, select Australia from the Countries list, then select ASX Energy (GIC) from the Available Watchlists list on the right of the window.
    4. Click the Update button. Your new Energy sector watchlist “ASX Energy (GIC)” will now be available from your watchlist window.

    Disclaimer: The information provided within this article is not an invitation to trade a specific stock, but is intended for educational purposes only.

    By Michael Hevern
    Head of Research

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    New Features in Rapid Trader

    Friday, May 13th, 2011

    In recent months the software development team has been working hard to improve the Rapid Trader online trading platform, adding even more functionality and usability enhancements. This latest release includes an upgraded menu, the addition of customisable search preferences, and, most importantly, the ability to trade Options. All of these are designed to assist you with executing your trades even more quickly and efficiently.

    Navigation is available from the left hand menu. Choose from the following menu options:
    Home, News, Watchlist, Options Monitor, Portfolio, Top Companies, Fundamental Data or Quick Quote.

    This menu can be expanded or hidden away:

    *Click << to collapse the menu or *Click >> to expand it.

    Rapid Trader Menu

    When the menu is collapsed you can click on the grey bar on the left hand side of the window to temporarily display the menu. The menu will pop out so you can select what you wish to view, and it will disappear again when you move the mouse off the menu. To display the menu permanently click the >> button to expand it.

    Settings

    Accessible from a link in the top right hand corner, the Settings tool allows you to customise Rapid Trader to better meet your needs. You can choose from One Click or Two Click Trading for your order placement, which will determine whether you need to confirm your trade before it gets placed, or if you want your orders sent directly to the market. Now you can also specify the types of instruments that are displayed when you are searching for the share you want.

    Rapid Trader - Settings

    * Click the Settings link
    * Click the Trading Preferences tab
    * Select the style of trading you prefer
    * Click OK

    When you type a symbol in any of the search boxes Rapid Trader automatically provides a list of possible securities. If you only want to see shares then in the Search Preferences tab select the Equities box only. If you would like to see other choices then select the appropriate boxes, you can choose as many or as few as you wish. The more options you select the bigger the list you have to choose from when typing in a symbol.

    Options Monitor

    The Options Monitor enables you to view the current prices for Exchange Traded Options and when you find the option you are looking for you can quickly execute your trade.

    Rapid Trader - Options Monitor

    * If your side menu is expanded, click << to collapse the menu. This is not essential, but will give you more space to view your data.
    * Enter the symbol of the underlying share, eg BHP.ASX.
    * Select the expiry month.
    * Select the type of option (Call, Put or both).
    * Click Request to display the latest prices.

    With the option prices displayed you can select the option you are interested in and click the Buy or Sell buttons located at the top right of your screen.

    * Enter the price you wish to pay – note this is a limit price.
    * Enter the quantity you wish to buy.
    * Click the Buy button.

    Your option order will be executed when your price conditions have been met.

    Make sure you check out the new features available in Rapid Trader and use these to enhance your trading execution. All orders are executed through Trader Dealer where you can trade from as little as $19.50 per trade.

    By Jeff Cartridge
    Education Manager

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