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  • Trading Options Using The Bourse

    Friday, September 3rd, 2010

    In last week’s Analyst’s Eye article we considered the standardisation of options. This standardisation is important so that it is easy to understand exactly what it is that you are trading. Every option has an underlying share, is a call or a put, has an exercise price and an expiry date and the price you pay for the option is the premium.

    With these five pieces of information in mind let’s consider a trade on ANZ below. We will consider trading a put option in this example, however the process of trading a call is identical if you believe a share is going up, instead of down.

    Taking (Buying) a Put

    You would buy a put if you believe the share is going down. Buying a put gives you the right to sell 1000 of the underlying share at an agreed price on, or before, an agreed date.

    Call or Put

    We have chosen the share we wish to trade which in our example is ANZ Bank. We believe from our analysis that ANZ is likely to fall from its current price. ANZ was trading at $23.34 on 2 September 2010. We could therefore buy a put option on ANZ.

    The Bourse - Insight - ANZ chart

    So we now look up the put options available for ANZ. To do this we go to The Bourse toolbar and click the red O toolbar icon, for Exchange Traded Options. We have a choice of expiry dates and exercise prices to make before we can determine the premium (cost) of the option.

    Type in the code of the share, which in our case is ANZ, and then select Put to display a list of Put options that are available on ANZ. You will see a list with different expiry dates in the month column, and different exercise prices in the Strike column. The most actively traded options will be near the current price, which is around $23.34.

    The Bourse - Insight - ANZ Options

    Expiry Date

    For any option position you must choose the expiry date you wish to trade. At any given exercise price there is a range of expiry dates. The expiry dates start on Oct 2010 which is about three weeks away, and go all the way out to 2014. The more time an option has until the expiry, the more expensive it will be.

    As a guideline option traders would normally take options with between six weeks and three months until the expiry. So on the 21st of July 2010 an options trader would normally consider an expiry date of September the same year. Remember you must allow the share time for the expected move to occur. Most of the time decay for an option occurs during the last month so let’s take a look at the November expiry dates.

    Exercise Price

    Now we can select the exercise price we wish to trade.

    The Bourse - Insight - ANZ Options 2

    With ANZ trading at $23.34 the closest exercise price is $23.50. This would be regarded as the at-the-money option. The $23.00 option is out-of-the-money and the $24.00 option is in-the-money.

    An in-the-money option costs more than an out-of-the-money option and is lower risk. The in-the-money option already has some intrinsic value, while the out-of-the-money option is all made up of time value. The different options will behave differently based on the movement in the share.

    Premium

    It will depend on which option you choose as to the premium that you pay for the option. Assuming that you chose the $23.00 November Put option and you bought the option at market price, you would pay a premium of $1.12 per share. Remember that each option contract is for 1000 shares so the cost of 1 option contract would be $1.12 x 1000 = $1120.

    The success of the trade will be determined by the movement of the underlying share, but will also be affected by your choice of option. We will consider three different options and how they perform in different scenarios.

    Possible Outcomes

    There are three possible outcomes: the share is higher, lower or goes sideways. The change in the price will be determined not only by the direction of the move, but also by how quickly the move occurs. The option is a wasting asset, and the time value decreases as time passes.

    Share Moves Down

    All put options will increase in value, with the out-of-the-money option increasing the most. The out-of-the-money option could move into-the-money which would result in a sharp increase in value. Call options would decrease in value as the share moves down.

    Share Moves Up

    All put options will drop in value with the sharpest drop shown in the out-of-the-money options. The chance of the out-of-the-money option having value on, or before the expiry date, has become much less, and consequently the value of the option will drop dramatically. Call options behave in the reverse, with prices rising.

    Share Moves Sideways

    All options drop in value as time passes, regardless of whether they are puts or calls. Options are decaying assets and lose time value every day they are owned.

    The out-of-the-money option will normally provide the biggest return coupled with the biggest downside if the trade does not go in the direction the trader expected.

    Trading Puts

    There are two main reasons that a trader would trade put options. The first is if the trader wanted to profit from a fall in value in the share. A put option increases in value as the underlying share falls, allowing a trader to buy the options and sell it at a higher price.

    Put options, like call options, are wasting assets. The trader must pick both the direction and timing to enter the trade. Strong returns can be made trading put options when shares fall away rapidly, as they did in January 2008. It is important that the expiry date that is chosen provides the trader with enough time for the move to play out, so they can benefit from it. A share moving sideways or upwards is going to cost the trader money.

    Investors may want to employ put options as a protection mechanism for their portfolio. The put option increases in value as the share drops, but it also gives an investor the right to sell their shares at the exercise price. If you owned WBC shares and were concerned that the shares might drop, you could purchase put options as protection.

    If you were correct and WBC did drop you now have the right to sell WBC at the exercise price of the put option. Alternatively you could sell the put option for a profit and continue to own the shares. This is known as hedging.

    Adding put options to your trading toolkit offers you the flexibility to profit in different market conditions. Share traders are limited to making money from a rising share price, but options traders just want the share price to move.

    By Jeff Cartridge
    Education Manager

    Sign up for a FREE trial of The Bourse today

    The information provided within this blog is general advice only and you should consult the services of a financial professional in order to ascertain whether the information is applicable to your investment strategies and risk profile.

    Trading Book Review: Sentiment Indicators

    Friday, September 3rd, 2010

    Sentiment Indicators

    Author: Abe Cofnas
    RRP $79.95

    Sentiment Indicators by Abe Cofnas

    Trading book review by Janene Murdoch from the Educator Investor Bookshop

    Alternative charting tools that allow traders to identify high probability entry and exit points that leaves less money on the table.

    In Sentiment Indicators, noted trading expert, Abe Cofnas, draws on his own trading and training experience as he shares his knowledge about the latest techniques and strategies for using Renko, price break, Kagi, and point and figure tools to successfully analyze all markets.

    Written with the serious trader in mind, Sentiment Indicators offers key information on these  tools and how to use each one of them to shape your trading strategies. Along the way, it provides a practical overview of how to use these little-known indicators and how each one can enhance your trading endeavors.

    Chapter by chapter, this reliable guide:

    • Focuses on measuring sentiment change to avoid counter trend trading.
    • Explains the comparative advantages of each tool and when to use one tool versus another.
    • Presents new sentiment research that analyses word mining and what it means for markets.
    • Shows how the indicators work in different markets: futures, equities, forex, and others.
    • Provides a solid understanding of charting techniques and uses real-world examples to illustrate strategies and tactics.
    • And much more.

    This book is available from the Educated Investor Book shop. If you would like to order this book please visit The Educated Investor Bookshop website.

    By Janene Murdoch
    Educated Investor Bookshop

    Stock Market Analysis: Weekly Market Wrap

    Friday, September 3rd, 2010

    Weekly Market Wrap

    The market started the week lower as investors ruled off the worst August performance in almost a decade, trading volumes were also anemic which was a concern as well. However a huge turnaround in investor sentiment was triggered by better-than-expected economic data in the US, China and Australia, and markets in the US, Europe and Asia are all ending the week higher.

    The ABS confirmed that Australia’s economic growth for the June quarter rose a surprising 1.2 percent which is the biggest quarterly gain in economic growth for 3 years. This translates to a 3.3 percent annual GDP growth which significantly exceeded analysts’ forecasts. Asian economic data triggered a surge in share prices worldwide after a surprisingly upbeat trading and economic growth report.

    US Markets

    US markets ended sharply higher this week on the back of surprisingly good economic data. Investors were spooked early in the week after the Federal Reserve said that the outlook for the US economy would have to deteriorate “appreciably” to warrant any fresh support from the central bank. This eliminated hope of another stimulus package for the US. Then a report that US manufacturing activity expanded in August for a 13th straight month triggered investor optimism that the dreaded “double dip” may be averted.

    The CBOE Volatility Index, known as the market fear gauge, has been falling to 23.19 this week, confirming the reversal of investor sentiment. Overnight, the Dow closed up 0.5% at 10,320, while in the broader market the S&P 500 index up 0.9% at 1,090 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq ended up 1.1% at 2,200.

    European Markets

    European stocks started the week flat but then surged as the new month unfolded. EU economic data has continued to point to a slowing recovery, with the UK manufacturing suffering a sharp slowdown last month amid uncertainty about the extent of public spending cuts. Growth in Europe’s manufacturing industry slowed in August and export demand fell to the lowest levels in seven months. Investors chose to take their leads from the US and Asian economies and followed these markets higher. Overnight in London, the FTSE 100 index closed up marginally 0.1% at 5,371. The German DAX was flat at 6,084, while in France the CAC was down marginally 0.1% at 3,631.

    Asian Markets

    Asian markets traded higher this week. Chinese markets held on to recent gains, after reports that manufacturing in China grew at a faster pace in August following the weakest performance since early 2009, indicating that the Chinese government-engineered economic slowdown will be limited. Even Japan managed to end the week higher after rebounding off 16-month lows earlier in the week, after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) announced emergency moves to address the strength of the yen. Overnight in China the SSE Composite closed up 1.3% at 2,656, while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index was up 1.2% at 20,869 and in Japan the Nikkei 225 Index was up 1.5% at 9,063.

    Commodities

    Wheat prices are again trading around 2-year highs. Oil prices bounced this week jumping above $US74 again. Overnight the benchmark crude NYMEX for September delivery was up 1.4% (or $US1.05) to settle at $US74.96.

    Copper prices also rose. Copper for September delivery was up 0.4% (or 1.4 cents) at $US3.4820. Gold prices rose to 2-month highs, above the key $US1,250 psychological level, and look to be heading for new record highs with December gold up 0.4% at $1,251.00.

    ASX News

    The ASX market has been boosted by “outstanding” economic reports from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS). On Tuesday, the ABS confirmed that Australia’s economic growth for the June quarter rose a surprising 1.2 percent, the biggest quarterly gain in economic growth for 3 years. This translates to a 3.3 percent annual GDP growth which significantly exceeded analysts’ forecasts. The ABS also confirmed that Australia recorded its smallest current account deficit since the first quarter of 2002.

    The seasonally adjusted deficit improved by almost $11 billion to $5.64 billion in the June quarter, as commodity exports boosted earnings. The improvement was primarily driven by a sharp rise in the value of commodity exports which was largely due to a shift to shorter-term contracts. The value of iron ore and mineral exports surged 43 percent with a 39 percent jump in prices, while coal exports jumped 52 percent with a steep rise in both prices and volumes. This sale of rural goods also rose 6 percent on the quarter. Investor sentiment turned around on this news and pushed the markets significantly higher.

    Our View
    Markets have surged higher this week after a dismal August, and the ASX is testing the top of the trading range that has been in place for the past four months. We would expect to see some consolidation next week, where the 4600 level will be key.

    The US releases its Non-Farm Payrolls report tonight which will set the tone for next week.

    The S&P ASX200 is currently trading at 4540, at the upper quarter of the current trading range. The key resistance level on the ASX is around 4600 and the key levels for our index next week are 4650 and 4400, with pivot at 4500. The momentum is to the upside and the 4600 level is key resistance near term.

    By Michael Hevern
    Head of Research

    Geelong Advertiser and Trader Dealer SuperTipping winners announced!

    Tuesday, August 31st, 2010

    At the beginning of the AFL footy season all those months ago, Trader Dealer announced that we were proud to be sponsors of the Geelong Advertiser SuperTipping competition, which has unfortunately now come to an end.

    As part of this competition, the Geelong Advertiser offered a fantastic $10,000 cash prize to the winner of the SuperTipping, and as an added extra Trader Dealer offered a $1000 cash prize for the winner of the Trader Dealer private tipping league.

    After 22 rounds of tactical tipping, we can now announce the winners!

    Geelong Advertiser – Tippers of the Season

    Congratulations to ‘Behind the Play’ who scooped the grand prize of $10,000 with 140 tip points.

    In the weighted tipping competition, ‘The Serene Machine’ also won a $10,000 cash prize, amassing 217.79 points.

    Trader Dealer SuperTipping league – Tipper of the Season

    The winner of the $1000 cash prize for being the top of the Trader Dealer private tipping league, with 124 tip points, is ‘PlatinumBruce’.

    Well done to all the winners and thank you to everyone who participated. We hope that you enjoyed the tipping games.

    All the Team
    Trader Dealer

    Flexible Traders and Investors Embrace Options As Market Falls

    Friday, August 27th, 2010

    Flexible Traders and Investors Embrace Options As Market Falls

    When the markets turn down many investors and traders run for cover, but is there an alternative?
    There are derivatives available to make money regardless of the market direction, and one of the most flexible of these derivatives is options.

    So just what can you do with an option? The answer is almost anything. You can profit when markets are moving up, down and even sideways (unlike most derivatives).

    Mechanics of Options

    An option works just like insurance. If you take out car insurance you get access to insurance that covers you for a year in exchange for a small premium. If you crash your car sometime during that year (depending on the circumstances) you would normally receive a large payment to repair the car. If you don’t crash your car, then you forfeit the premium if no claim is made. A new premium is payable for the next period of time, usually a year, whether you crash your car or not.

    The options market works in the same way. You pay out a small premium, which gives you access to the movement in the share for a set time. If you are right you receive a large amount of cash back and if you are wrong you forfeit the small premium.

    Why does the insurance company offer insurance? It receives a number of small premiums and occasionally will have to pay out when someone crashes their car as not everyone will crash their car. In the options market you can choose to be the insurance company or the insured.

    Standardisation of Options

    Option contracts have been standardised into five basic components:

    1. Share
    2. Type of option
    3. Date of expiry
    4. Exercise price
    5. Premium

    1. Share

    In terms of the Australian options market, a trader’s choice of a share is largely made for them due to the limited nature of the market. There are approximately 80 available share options, of which only a few may offer a trader the chance to participate adequately. Despite the presence of market makers, which are compelled to deal in options in order to overcome poor liquidity, many options are notoriously illiquid and traders may find it hard to deal in these.
    It is important to remember that you should only deal in the most liquid share options, or more importantly, never deal in the illiquid share options. Being able to buy and sell your options quickly at the price you want is far more important than the actual return you make, because if you cannot close out your position when you want, your profit could disappear very quickly!

    2. Type of Option

    An option to buy shares is known as a CALL option.
    An option to sell shares is known as a PUT option.

    If you buy a CALL option you believe the price of the share is going up, if you buy a PUT option you believe the price of the share is going down.

    A great way to remember this is to imagine you are using a telephone. You pick UP the phone to CALL someone and you PUT DOWN the phone when you finish the call.

    3. Expiry Date

    All options have an expiry date. The option must be sold or exercised before the expiry date otherwise it becomes worthless.

    The expiry date for a particular company will fall into one of the following 3-month cycles:

    • * January/April/July/October
    • * February/May/August/November
    • * March/June/September/December

    In addition to these expiry dates the more active options also have expiry dates every month with the front (closest to today) three months available at any time.

    The Australian Clearing House (ACH) stipulates that trading in options ceases at the close of trading on the Thursday preceding the last working Friday of the maturity month. If the Thursday falls on a public holiday, trading will cease on the last business day proceeding the last Friday of the expiry month.

    An easy way to work this out is to find the last Friday of the month when the market trades – the day before is expiry date for the month. A calendar of the expiration dates for 2010 is also available on the ASX Website.

    In September 2010 the last Friday that the market trades will be the 24th, so the expiry date will be Thursday September 23rd. http://www.asx.com.au/products/pdf/2010.pdf

    4. Exercise Price (strike price)

    The exercise price is the price at which an option buyer may exercise their right to buy or sell shares covered by that option. In Australia the terminology ‘exercise price’ is used, in the US this is referred to as the ‘strike price’. The Australian Clearing House sets the exercise prices when it issues the options.

    Dependent on where the exercise price is in relation to the current share price gives rise to three different ways to describe options: at-the-money, in-the-money or out-of-the-money.

    In-the-Money

    When an option is in-the-money, the owner could exercise the option immediately and make a profit. This immediate profit is known as the intrinsic value of the option.

    At-the-Money

    An option is described as being at-the-money when the exercise price is equal to the current share price. It is extremely rare for a share to be trading exactly at the exercise price and the closest option is often called at-the-money even though it is strictly referred to as near-the-money.

    Out-of-the-Money

    An option is out-of-the-money when the option has no intrinsic value. That is, if the owner were to exercise the option, they would not make a profit; in fact, they would make a loss.

    5. Premium

    The quoted price of the option is referred to as the premium. Option prices are quoted on a per share basis, thus to obtain the full contract price a trader has to multiply the quoted price by the number of shares that make up the contract. If BHP 3050 July calls were trading at 60 cents, the price of one contract would be $0.60 x 1,000 shares = $600.00.

    In Australia, each option contract is generally for 1000 shares while in the US each option contract is for 100 shares. Under some circumstances, this may change during the life of the option if the underlying share is involved in a bonus issue. If for example a company declares a 1:1 bonus then there will be an additional 1,000 shares created with an exercise price half that of the original exercise price.

    To illustrate this, consider the following situation. A trader has taken a position in TLS by buying one call contract with a strike price of $5.00. During the life of the option, TLS declares a 1:1 bonus. After the issue of the bonus, the trader will hold two contracts each comprising 1,000 shares at a strike price of $2.50.

    Summary

    The standardisation of options allows the trader to confidently enter the market being clear on exactly what it is that’s being traded. With all options traded on the Australian Securities Exchange they are readily accessible to traders and investors who wish to diversify their approach to the markets. You can use options to profit regardless of the market direction.

    By Jeff Cartridge
    Education Manager

    Through Trader Dealer, clients can execute Exchange Traded Option (ETO) orders online. From as little as $26.40 per trade, you can buy call or put options, or sell call options as part of a covered-call or buy write options strategy with ease. Visit the Trader Dealer website for more information and also get details of how to open an account through Trader Dealer.

    The information provided within this blog is general advice only and you should consult the services of a financial professional in order to ascertain whether the information is applicable to your investment strategies and risk profile.

    Trading Book Review: The Complete Trading for a Living

    Friday, August 27th, 2010

    The Complete Trading for a Living (including Study Guide)

    Author: Alexander Elder
    RRP $120.00

    The Complete Trading for a Living

    Trading book review by Janene Murdoch from the Educator Investor Bookshop

    This is the bestselling trading book of all time. Dr. Alexander Elder’s ‘Trading for a Living’ now comes complete with a companion study guide in a handsome leather edition that no trader should be without.

    Focusing on the three critical areas of mind, method, and money, Dr. Elder helps professionals master new approaches to trading stocks, currencies, futures, and options. A clear understanding of the three M’s will help you discipline your mind, master the best methods for trading the markets and manage money in your trading accounts, so that no string of losses can kick you out of the game.

    Dr. Elder’s revolutionary ‘Trading for a Living’ has won international acclaim and helped hundreds and thousands of traders bring their skills to new levels. The accompanying ‘Study Guide for Trading for a Living’ adds more than 200 questions, charts and assessments, that pinpoint the reader’s strengths and weaknesses as a trader and helps measure improvement and growth.

    These two books are now available together in one beautifully bound volume, worthy of a place of honor in every trader’s library.

    This book is available from the Educated Investor Book shop. If you would like to order this book please visit The Educated Investor Bookshop website.

    By Janene Murdoch
    Educated Investor Bookshop

    Trading Strategies: Top-Down Trading by Sectors

    Friday, August 20th, 2010

    The markets have been difficult for traders who use trend following to identify trading opportunities, especially in the past few months as the Australian market has traded sideways.

    Market Seasonality

    Back in July we gave readers a road map for the markets, as our Education Manager Jeff Cartridge reviewed the seasonality of the market in an attempt provide a potential path for what to expect in the markets this quarter. This review was carried out using seasonal analysis of 26 years of ASX data as show below.

    Chart: Australian Market Seasonality (using 26 years of ASX data)

    Based on the analysis of seasonality, Australian markets typically trade sideways from mid-August through to the end of September and the current market environment appears to be unfolding in the same typical manner.

    If you have been struggling to identify specific stocks to trade in this market, then an alternate option is to approach the market with a top-down view using sectors.

    What is Top-Down Trading?

    Top-down trading was developed decades ago with the aim of considering as many key factors in your favour as possible before taking a position in the stock market. Top-down investors take a big picture view, looking first at the global economy to forecast which sector will generate the best returns.

    This methodology is used to identify sectors that are trending, and then drill down into those sectors and identify stocks that are trading in the same direction.

    The Market Analyser software has a very useful charting feature which allows you to step through your watchlist. In the case of sector analysis you can use the watchlist wizard to load the ASX GICS Sectors (“ASX GICS”), then step through each sector on your charts using the “Display the next Xcode in selected Watchlist” ( the blue circle button with arrow), as illustrated below.

    Market Analyser - Charting Features

    Market Analyser - Charting Features

    We have analysed the market by sector using the Market Analyser software and have produced the following table:

    Table: Sector performance and trends

    The top-down analysis results as tabulated, indicate the S&PASX 200 (.AXJO) is currently directionless with the short and medium term trends in neutral. The only sector(s) you would consider trading to the long side would be the Consumer Staples (.AXSJ) with the short and medium term trends rising, and maybe the Materials sector (.AXMJ) which has a medium term trend rising and short term trend in neutral.

    Having identified the sector(s) to drill-down into, we can again use the Market Analyser software to obtain the stocks within the sector by selecting Menu > Quotes > Sector View. You can then select the stocks you are interested in and set up your own watchlist, as illustrated below.

    Market Analyser Chart - Watchlist

    Market Analyser Chart - Watchlist

    Commentary

    The Consumer Staples sector is obviously benefiting from the current focus on Agricultural businesses. News last week that Russia is suspending its wheat exports has pushed wheat prices to surge to 24-month highs and brings into focus our Agricultural businesses. Also news this week that BHP wants to take over Canada’s Potash Corp fertiliser business for $US39 billion is also adding to the focus.

    The Trade

    Trade stocks that are trading with the momentum of the underlying sector. Stocks with exposure to Agricultural business are outperforming in the current market. Foreign companies are eying off these businesses and this is adding fuel to the sector’s performance. There are a number of unresolved acquisition deals at the moment, such as AWB, CSR and Grain Corp. Other stocks to consider are AACo, Elders, Goodman Fielder and Ridley Corp. On a risk/reward basis, trade using a well-defined stop, perhaps just below the two-week lows, and before entering into any long position make sure that the stock price is trading above the previous week’s close.

    By Michael Hevern
    Head of Research

    Sign up for a free trial of Market Analyser!

    The information provided within this blog is general advice only and you should consult the services of a financial professional in order to ascertain whether the information is applicable to your investment strategies and risk profile.

    Stock Market Analysis: Weekly Market Wrap

    Friday, August 13th, 2010

    Weekly Market Wrap – Faltering World Economies

    Investors have spent the week de-risking their portfolios, pricing in slower economic growth into their investment outlook. This week, Australian shares have taken a hit from poor earnings reports from key bellwethers, while overseas poor economic data continued to weigh on European, U.S. and Asian markets, sending investors out of growth and risk sensitive assets. In the U.S. high unemployment persists and the Fed confirmed that uncertain times will continue for the foreseeable future. Asian markets reported further data confirming their recovery is slowing. European markets are suffering from the austerity measures that were implemented earlier this year. Central banks have all left their rates on hold and have downgraded their view of the prospects for economic growth near term.

    US Markets

    US stocks traded lower this week, as investors sold-off on the back of sobering comments from the Fed (“unusually uncertain” economy), high unemployment (at 9.5 percent) and a widening trade deficit. Data also showed a decline in consumer credit amid increased saving by American households, which is an issue as consumer spending makes up 70% of economic activity. The U.S. markets dropped the most in 6 weeks, with all major markets down over 3.5 percent for the week, however trading volumes continue to be light. The sell-off was broad-based with the Energy, Materials, Financial and Industrial sectors all well down. Overnight The CBOE Volatility Index known as the “market fear gauge” has been rising to 25.7, reflecting the investor concern and that they are expecting more drops in stocks. The Dow closed down -0.6% at 10,320, while in the broader market the S&P 500 index was down -0.5% at 1,084 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq ended down -0.8% at 2,190.

    European Markets

    European stock markets closed lower this week on concerns that economic data is confirming faltering economic growth. Industrial production in the EU unexpectedly fell in June as a result of declines in output from France and Germany, according to data from the EU Eurostat statistics office. Sovereign debt concerns resurfaced as the European Central Bank (ECB) reportedly had to purchase short-dated Irish government bonds, in an attempt to calm market volatility stemming from concerns of the creditworthiness of Irish banks. Across in Greece the economy contracted sharply (1.5%) in the second quarter as government austerity measures savaged incomes. The U.K. housing-market gauge signaled the first monthly decline in prices for a year and the Bank of England (BoE) downgraded growth forecasts.

    German June trade figures showed a sharp pick-up in imports, which helped German stocks test 2-year highs, but it has finished for the week lower. Overnight in London the FTSE 100 index closed up 0.3% at 5,263, the German DAX down -0.3% at 6,135, while in France the CAC was down marginally -0.1% at 3,621.

    Asian Markets

    Asian markets fell this week. The Japanese export-driven economy was hit by the Yen reaching 15 year highs. Hong Kong’s GDP slowed more than expected last quarter at 6.3 percent (versus estimates of 8.2 percent), this weighed on the index. Chinese investors also continued selling amid concerns over slowing growth. China’s imports rose 22.7 per cent in July, sharply slower than June’s 34.1 per cent increase. The data showed that Chinese import growth slowed for a fourth consecutive month raising concerns that slowing Chinese growth will impact the global recovery, as its internal economic growth could decelerate amid a government engineered slowdown in investment and consumption. Overnight in China the SSE Composite closed down -1.2% at 2,575, while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index was down -0.9% at 21,106 and in Japan the Nikkei 225 Index was down -0.9% at 9,213.

    Commodities

    The US dollar advanced this week due to rising fears of a global economic slowdown, which weighed on the euro and increased the appeal of the U.S. currency as a flight to safety. This put pressure on commodities prices. Wheat prices continued to be a highlight, though they have pulled backed off 2-year highs. Oil prices fell as a weakening outlook on the economic recovery stoked fears of dropping oil demand. Overnight the benchmark crude NYMEX for September delivery was down -2.9% to settle at $US75.80; Copper prices have backed off 3-month highs, Copper for September delivery was up 0.9% at $US3.272 a pound; Gold prices rose above the key $US1,200 psychological level, with December gold up 1.4% at $US1,215.30.

    ASX News

    The election is only a week away, and both parties are yet to fully inform voters of their final set of promises. The Australian stock market has suffered this week from the negative leads from overseas markets, while commodities have generally pulled back.

    Our company reporting season has also weighed on the markets with many bellwethers such as James Hardie, Tabcorp, Telstra and Computershare disappointing. Other companies like CommBank, JB Hi-Fi and Bendigo Bank are still performing well.

    Our View
    Markets have sold-off this week, as investors come to the realisation that the outlook of slowing global economic growth is a reality. The earnings season has weighed on the Australian shares and the cautious company forecasts for future earnings has weighed on investor sentiment. Investors need to concentrate on those companies that continue to grow their earnings with strong balance sheets.

    The S&P ASX200 is currently trading at 4410, the mid-level of the current trading range. The key support level on the ASX is still around 4,200 and the key levels for our index next week are 4500 and 4250, with pivot at 4400. The momentum is to the downside but the 4200 will be key for support near term.

    By Michael Hevern
    Head of Research

    Trading Book Review: The Daily Trading Coach

    Friday, August 13th, 2010

    The Daily Trading Coach

    Author: Brett N. Steenbarger
    RRP $59.95
    The Daily Trading Coach

    Trading book review by Janene Murdoch from the Educator Investor Bookshop

    Every trader is an entrepreneur and just as a new business must capitalize upon the strengths of it’s founders, a career in the market crucially hinges upon the assets (personal and monetary) of the trader. As an active trader, and a coach of traders in hedge funds, proprietary trading groups and investment bank settings, author Brett Steenbarger has helped others to see the personal assets they have possessed all along: those that can pay a lifetime of dividends.

    In The Daily Trading Coach, he provides the tools to help you prioritize both your trading goals and your life and become your own trading psychologist.

    There are 101 lessons in The Daily Trading Coach, each averaging several pages in length. Each lesson follows the same general format of identifying an everyday challenge that traders face, an approach to meeting the challenge and a specific suggestion for implementing that approach. The lessons cover a range of topics relevant to trading psychology and trading performance, including detailed instructions for utilizing psycho-dynamic, cognitive, and behavioral brief therapy methods to change problematic behavior patterns and instill new, positive ones. The chapters are independent of one another, so that you can read them in order or you can use the Table of Contents or Index to read, each day, the lesson that most applies to your current trading. In addition, the book includes insightful self-coaching perspectives from eighteen successful trading professionals who share their work online.

    While the aim of the book is to help you become your own trading coach, its broader purpose is to help you coach yourself through life. The challenges and uncertainties you face in trading – the pursuit of rewards in the face of risks – are just as present in careers and relationships as in markets. The Daily Trading Coach provides a road map, and a practical set of insights and tools for discovering and implementing the best within you.

    This book is available from the Educated Investor Book shop. If you would like to order this book please visit The Educated Investor Bookshop website.

    By Janene Murdoch
    Educated Investor Bookshop

    Dividends Make All the Difference

    Friday, August 13th, 2010

    It’s that time of year when dividends once again come into play.

    Companies typically pay a dividend twice a year with the details of the dividend amount and timing contained in the annual and half-yearly reports. Most companies’ end of financial year is June 30, so by the time they get their books in order they then announce the final dividend for the year. At the moment it’s a trickle, but from late August through September the flood gates open and many companies announce when their dividends will be paid.

    Dividends have a strong benefit for both investors and traders in the markets. With lower growth expected from shares, investors will need to get all they can from dividends. This could possibly make up a significant portion of your overall return as can be seen in this chart. The red line includes dividends, the blue line doesn’t.

    Dividends Make All the Difference

    Dividends Make All the Difference

    Tax Benefits

    Dividends also have strong tax benefits due to the franking credits that can be attached to the dividends.

    A franking credit is a credit for tax that has already been paid by the company on its profits, and you as an investor gain the benefit of this. While the 45-day rule does apply to franking credits received, it is widely misunderstood. Shares must be held “at risk” for 45 days to receive the benefit of the franking credits, but this only applies if your franking credits are more than $5,000. It does not apply if your franking credits are less than this.

    And for those investors receiving dividends in their complying Self Managed Super Funds, franking credits actually reduce your tax! You get the credit for the company tax rate of 30%, but only have to pay tax at the rate of 15%. The company paid too much tax on your behalf and you may even get a tax refund!

    Dates and Dividends

    It can get very confusing when it comes to dividend time, as there are a wide variety of different dates associated with the dividend payment. There is the cum dividend date, the ex dividend date, the record date and the payment date. All are relevant in their own right.

    Cum Dividend

    – This means the share is trading with the dividend attached and the buyers receive the benefit of the dividend.

    Ex Dividend

    – If the share is purchased on the ex dividend date the buyer does not receive the dividend. The share must be purchased before the ex dividend date to gain access to the dividend.

    Record Date

    – This is the day that the investors must be recorded as shareholders. Because the purchase of a share is not settled until T+3, 3 days after the share is traded the record date is 3 days after the ex dividend date.

    Payment Date

    – This is the day the cheques are posted to the shareholders. This could be significantly later than the record date. It is not necessary to own the share on the payment date, but it is necessary to own it on the record date.

    The most important date for most people is the ex dividend date, as you must buy the share prior to this date to receive the dividend. On the ex dividend date the share drops in value, usually by the amount of the dividend.

    Dividend Reinvestment Plan (DRP)

    If you do not need the cash that is provided by your dividends then it is a good idea to consider reinvesting your dividends. Many companies offer the opportunity for shareholders to reinvest their dividends as shares rather than receive the dividend in cash. Some companies even offer a discount to the current price if you choose to reinvest your dividends. Discounts can be up to 7.5% of the price of the share which is a significant discount, though most DRPs tend to be at a smaller 2.5% discount or no discount at all. This allows an investor to not only benefit from the power of compounding in the price of the share it also allows an investor to benefit from compounding the number of shares as well.

    If you receive all the dividends in cash the number of shares you own does not change, but as the dividend increases over time the amount of cash you receive also increases. Under the DRP strategy the number of shares you have will increase each year and because you have more shares and the dividends are also increasing, this growth compounds. Over time this can be significant.

    Dividends for Traders

    At one of the seminars I ran, one of the participants got really excited about the idea of trading for dividends. If a company is paying a dividend yield of 6 per cent they will usually make two payments of approximately 3 per cent per dividend. That is not a huge return on the face of it but what if you could employ leverage up to 20 times using Contracts for Difference (CFDs)? The return now jumps to 60 per cent on the margin money used.
    That sounds much more attractive as a return. This theory has one major flaw: you will receive a 60 per cent return in cash on the day the dividend is paid but on average the share drops by the amount of the dividend on the ex-dividend date, losing 60 per cent of the margin requirement for a net return of 0 per cent.
    But wait, all is not lost yet. There is an opportunity around dividend time, known as a dividend play. Take a look at this chart of National Australia Bank (NAB). The dividend drop can be seen in the middle of the chart. The pattern around this dividend is typical of a share’s behaviour, climbing before the dividend, dropping the amount of the dividend on the ex-dividend day and then recovering after the dividend is paid.

    Share prices drop the amount of the dividend on the ex-dividend day

    Share prices generally drop the amount of the dividend on the ex-dividend day

    By using a series of filters on the ASX market to select a list of large companies that are actively traded and pay a good dividend, I was able to create the chart of the behaviour around dividend time.

    Market trends around dividend time

    Market trends around dividend time

    This chart shows a climb of close to 100 per cent of the dividend amount from 12 days before the ex-dividend date. The peak in the share price occurs two days before the ex-dividend date. On the ex-dividend date the shares drop by 80 per cent of the dividend amount at open, fall lower during the day to 140 per cent of the dividend amount and then recover to close down about 85 per cent of the dividend amount. Over the next five days, the share recovers another 40 per cent of the dividend amount.

    The obvious strategy is to buy before the ex-dividend date and sell either the day before or on the date to take advantage of the run-up before the dividend payment. An alternative is to buy the share before the ex-dividend date and hold for the recovery after the ex-dividend date, selling five days later. Although this second strategy will provide stronger returns, holding the position through the ex-dividend date will dramatically increase the volatility in your portfolio. Not all shares recover immediately after the dividend drop, even though they do on average.

    Alternatively, you could buy on the ex-dividend date and sell a few days later to pick up the recovery after the drop.

    Note these figures are averages and will not be seen in all cases. Stop losses are still an essential part of any strategy.

    The strategy works better in a bullish market environment than in a bearish one because the dividend effect is not strong enough to overcome rapidly falling share prices. There are definitely opportunities around dividend time for traders as well as investors.

    Conclusion

    Dividends offer a wide variety of opportunities to both investors and traders and can be used to enhance your returns. Dividends are fairly predictable as the timing and amount of the dividend is usually known before the ex dividend date comes around. Trader Dealer publishes dividends for the week in the newsletter and posts upcoming dividends on the blog.