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  • Stock Market Analysis: Global Markets Down On Political Uncertainties & Poor US Jobs Data

    Monday, May 7th, 2012

    *  US stock markets fell sharply on Friday night, as sellers stepped in across the board due to the disappointing Non-Farms Payroll Employment Report and crude-oil broke below the $US100 level.
    *  European stock markets declined on Friday night, ahead of a number of country elections.
    *  Asian share markets ended mostly lower on Friday, expect Asian markets to sell-off today, following their overseas counterparts. .
    *  Commodities prices were lower, with Gold prices traded around $US1,645 while crude-oil closed around $US98.

    The Australian market is expected to sell-off again today, particularly our miners, after commodities sold-down on the weekend.  Markets traded lower from the open and closed on their lows in the European markets and in the US. We have a busy day for economic news today and the Federal Budget tomorrow night.

    The SPI Futures is trading above the key pivot level of 4300, ended down -1.1% (or -50 points) at 4,340. The key levels for our index this week are 4250 to 4400.

    See below for ASX listed companies in the news today.

    Economics News Today

    *  Apr     Australian PCI
    *  Mar     Building Approvals
    *  Mar     Retail Sales
    *  Apr     ANZ Job Ads
    *  Apr     NAB Business Survey
    *  Apr     Official Reserve Assets Reserves (US dollars).

    US Markets

    US stock markets fell sharply on Friday night, as sellers stepped in across the board due to the disappointing Non-Farms Payroll Employment Report and crude-oil broke below the $US100 level.

    The sell-off was sparked by the Labor Department report that showed the US economy added fewer jobs than expected last month, as Nonfarm payrolls rose 115,000 in April (well below the anticipated an increase of 168,000 jobs).  The poor employment report capped off a week of disappointing manufacturing and employment reports.  

    All 10 sectors in the S&P500 traded in the red for the session with the falls led by the technology and energy, while the materials and financials sectors sold-off sharply too.  The Nasdaq has its biggest session fall since last November and the index had its biggest weekly decline for the since November, slumping -3.7% during the week.  

    The other two major indexes had their first fall in 3-weeks with the Dow Jones Industrials and the S&P500 indexes having their largest drop in a month, and for the week the Dow Jones was down -1.4% and the S&P 500 fell -2.4%.  All 30 of the Dow components finished down for the session.  

    Commodities were weaker, led by a sharp fall in crude-oil prices which slumped below the $US100 level for the first time since February, after margin requirements were increased on the futures market.  Gold price edged higher.

    All ten company groups that make up the S&P index traded sharply lower, with the Materials down -1.7% , Energy sector was down -2.3%, Financials sector down -1.6%,  Industrials sector was down -1.4%, Technology was down -2.1%,  while Consumer Staples were down -1.9%.

    The Dow Jones closed down -1.3% (or -168 points) at 13,038, the S&P 500 index down -1.6% (or -22 points) at 1,369, the Nasdaq ended down -2.3% (or -68 points) at 2,956  and the smaller cap Russell 2000 was down -1.8%.

    European Markets

    European stock markets declined on Friday night, ahead of a number of country elections.  The Stoxx Europe 600 index ended down -1.7%. 

    Traders sold-off ahead of political elections, which will be a people vote on the restrictive austerity measures that have been imposed as a result of the eurozone bailout earlier this year. 

    In France the second-biggest economy, have elected Francois Hollande, who defeated French President Nicolas Sarkozy to has become the first Socialist in 17 years. Hollande has pledged to push for less austerity and more growth in the region.  While in Greece voters supported the anti-bailout parties, throwing doubt on whether the two main parties can put together a government strong enough to implement spending cuts to ensure the flow of bailout funds.

    Traders face a period of uncertainty as these new governments stamp their authority on their respective economies.

    In London the FTSE 100 index last closed down -1.9% (or -111  points) at  5,655, the German DAX was closed down -2.0% (or -133  points) at 6,561 while in France the CAC was closed down -1.9% (or -61 points)  at 3,162, Spain closed up 0.3% and Italy closed down -1.4%.

    Asian Markets

    Asian share markets ended mostly lower on Friday, as traders were cautious ahead of the US Non-Farms Employment report and a number of European elections on the weekend.   
    In Japan the market was closed Thursday and Friday, and the BoJ releases monetary policy meeting minutes today. In China the Shanghai Composite closed the week higher, after Chinese government bonds traded higher, as liquidity conditions improved after the Peoples Bank (PBOC) injected CNY65 billion into the banking system through a reverse repo offering, in an attempt to lower money market interest rates.  Expect Asian markets to sell-off today, following their overseas counterparts.

    In China the SSE Composite closed up 0.5% (or 12 points)   at 2,450, while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index closed  down -0.8% (or -163 points) at 21,086 and in Japan the Nikkei 225 Index  was closed  at 9,380, South Korean KOSPI was down -0.3% for the session, while the Indian market closed down -1.8%.

    Commodities

    The Dollar Index was higher at 79.1 on a lower Euro, while the Australian Dollar last traded lower at 1.0191. Commodities prices traded lower.

    For the session the Benchmark crude NYMEX for June delivery was down -3.9% settled at $US98.49.  Copper prices are backing off key resistance level as Copper for June delivery was down -1.5% (or -0.4 cents) at $US3.721, while June gold was up 0.6% (or $US10.40) at $US1,645.

    ASX News Today

     

    CBA – Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) has cut its standard variable home loan rate by 40 basis points to 7.01 per cent.

    CMJ – Consolidated Media Holdings says it is not considering a sale of its 25 percent stake in pay TV operator Foxtel, but has been in discussions which may result in a change of control at the company.

    CRF – Centro Retail Australia the shopping centre owner expects lower interest rates to improve sales in its centres.

    HVN – Harvey Norman say its pre-tax profit for the first nine months of the financial year is down 25 percent as sales continued to fall in the three months March.

    QAN – Qantas will cut spending by a further $400 million next financial year by delaying delivery of new A380 aircraft.

    LLC- Lend Lease has won a $210 million contract to carry out earthworks for the BHP Mitsubishi Alliance in Queensland.

    STO – Santos the oil and gas producer Santos says reserving Australia’s natural gas resources for its own use would be counter-productive.

    TSE – Transfield Services’ public transport joint venture has won an $800 million contract to maintain and operate Sydney’s famous harbour ferry services.

    TAH – Tabcorp has generated more revenue in the first three months of the calendar year, partly as a result of greater interest in fixed-odds betting and the animated racing game, Trackside.

    WBC – Westpac has cut its standard variable home loan rate by 37 basis points to 7.09 per cent.
    Corporate News

    Reporting today:  
     
    Orica Limited (ORI.AU)         Interim 2012 

     

    Ex-dividend Date

    GPT Group (GPT)
    Macquarie Group (MQG)
    Market Summary  

    ASX – to open lower
    US & UK/Europe – lower

    Commodities Stock Index down -1.9%
    Gold Stocks Index up 0.5%
    Oil Stocks Index  down -3.0% 

    US ADRs – Broadly Lower!!…  

    BHP down -2.3%, RIO down -3.9%; AWC down -3.5%

    ANZ down -2.1% & NAB down -1.6%
    NEM up 1.3%, JHX down , NWS down -2.5%

    By Michael Hevern

    Head of Research
     
    For Buy and Sell recommendations on ASX listed companies register for a FREE trial of MDS Financial Research.

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    Weekly Market Wrap: Investors Should Look To Insure Capital Gains

    Friday, May 4th, 2012

    Many markets have had shortened trading weeks, due to the May Day holiday(s), but the bulls have generally prevailed. The Aussie market (ASX200) reached 4440, which is the 50% retracement level from the sell-off this time last year to last year’s lows and we would expect investors to take a breather near-term to assess “where to from here”.

    US markets have traded sideways this week and the Dow Jones blue chip index is backing off 4-year highs. Traders are looking for another catalyst to fuel the markets for a further push higher, now that the US earnings season is coming to an end. Trader mood has been dampened by weaker US economic data and disappointing ISM manufacturing readings, and selling came after the weekly jobs report on private-sector job growth in April fell substantially. Traders have been cautious after disappointing eurozone manufacturing and employment data, and a weaker-than-expected weekly jobs report, ahead of the non-farm monthly employment report due out tonight.

    Eurozone markets have had a shortened trading week, but the mood has been negative as economic data is pointing to continuing troubles in the eurozone. European unemployment hit 10.9%, a 15-year high, with the German unemployment rate rising for just the second time in 15 months. Manufacturing data has also been disappointing and in Italy the purchasing managers index (PMI) dropped 43.8, highlighting concerns about the country’s manufacturing sector, while Spain and Greece saw their downturns accelerating. The banking stocks have been hit hard again, particularly those with exposure to the PIIGS economies, as the Spanish, Italian and Greek economies continue to battle their debt crisis issues. We also saw the UK economy confirming it’s in a double-dip recession.

    In Asia key markets are still drifting, but are holding at or above their 50 day moving averages, with the Hong Kong market continuing to outperform. Chinese banks have been supported after Morgan Stanley analysts raised their earnings estimates for Chinese banks up to 14% for 2012 and 2013, citing lower credit costs. The materials and energy sectors continue to weigh due to concerns on gobal growth going forward.

    Last week we said “In Australia the market continues to drift higher, as stocks have benefited from the positive overseas sentiment. Defensive stocks are leading the way, with Telstra at 2-year highs and the Healthcare sector pushing higher, but the materials sector continues to underperform. Banking stocks are pushing higher into their dividend and reporting season, which begins early next month. Typically the market should melt-up in the last week of the month and into the start of the new month and at this stage it is going to plan”. It is great when a plan comes together.

    Well next week is going to be interesting with global economic data weakening and the US monthly jobs report due out tonight. If the US Non-Farm Payrolls report disappoints, this could be a catalyst for the markets to take a breather near term. Both the ECB and the US Federal Reserve have fallen short of announcing any further quantitative easing near-term.

    In our market the RBA surprised by cutting interest rates by 50 basis points, and we have the healthcare sector pushing up against 4-year highs. Telstra has rocketed higher this week, while the banks also drifted upwards, as investors seek out stocks that can deliver consistent yield in this low rate environment. The materials sector continues to underperform on the back of lower commodity prices, due to the ratcheting back of global growth forecasts.

    Commodity prices have drifted lower this week, as the US dollar has gained strength in the face of weakening economic data on global growth. Crude-oil prices eased around the $US102 level and copper has again been unable to trade above $US3.85, and is holding below its 50 and 200 moving average support. Gold prices are again testing support around $US1,635.

    The Aussie market has held above its 13 and 50 day moving averages, but is backing off its 10-month resistance level, around the 4400 level again. On the S&P/ASX 200 the 4350 level is now the crucial support level and 4440 is the key level on the upside. Stocks may be looking to take a breather as we move through the bank reporting and dividend season, and the materials and energy sectors persist in underperforming.

    Traders should be looking to protect their recent profits and reduce their risk by using options and warrants strategies. In last week’s Analyst’s Eye we discussed using Warrants to Boost Returns on Dividend Paying Stocks and this week Jeff discusses The Business of Trading.  The D2MX Financial Advisory Services team can help with these trades. Call me on 1300 610 024 for further information. Investors should also be looking to utilise options and warrant strategies to protect their positions and profits. Options are a relatively cheap form of insurance, as volatility remains low, and you can also leverage yourself for breakout trades as they occur.

    Remain attuned to the news from overseas, particularly from the eurozone and China in relation to easing policies, and the US, as markets there hover around multi-year highs. Monitor the performance of China and the US dollar for a guide to the future direction of commodities and equities prices.

    The S&P/ASX 200 index is currently trading at 4404 and is holding above the key 13 day moving average near-term. Key levels for the index next week will be 4280 and 4440, with 4350 the key short term pivot level.

    By Michael Hevern
    DMX Retail Trading Desk

    For Buy and Sell recommendations on ASX listed companies register for a free trial of MDS Financial Research.

    This report was prepared by Michael Hevern. It represents the views and opinions of the author. It is not intended for use by any third party, without the approval of Michael Hevern. While this report is based on information from sources which are considered reliable, its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed reflect my judgment at this date and are subject to change. Contracting Hevern Pty Ltd is a Corporate Authorised Representative No. 408868 of D2MX Pty Limited ABN 98 113 959 596, AFSL No. 297950 (D2MX), and Michael Hevern has been appointed as an Authorised Representative of Contracting Hevern Pty Ltd. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this report are not given or endorsed by D2MX, unless otherwise indicated. The information contained in this Report is General Advice only, as the information or advice given does not take into account your particular objectives, financial situation or needs.

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    Stock Market Analysis: Markets Down As Traders Hold Out For More QE

    Friday, May 4th, 2012

    *  US stock markets fell overnight, as sellers stepped in across the board ahead of the Non-Farms Payroll Report.
    *  European stock markets ended modestly lower overnight.
    *  Asian share markets ended mostly lower yesterday, after disappointing manufacturing and employment reports from the US and the eurozone sparked concerns of slowing global economic growth.
    *  Commodities prices were lower, with Gold prices traded around $US1,637 while crude-oil closed around $US102.

    The Australian market is expected to sell-off today, particularly our miners, after many stock markets were closed lower overnight.  Markets traded lower from the open in the European markets and in the US and were weak in late session trading. Look out for the RBA’s Quarterly Statement due out today, as investors set themselves ahead of next week’s Federal Budget.

    The SPI Futures is trading above the key pivot level of 4360, ended down -0.3% (or -12 points) at 4,414. The key levels for our index today are 4360 to 4430.

    See below for ASX listed companies in the news today.

    Economics News Today
    *  RBA -  Quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy. 

    US Markets

    US stock markets fell overnight, as sellers stepped in across the board ahead of the Non-Farms Payroll Report.  

    Investor mood was dampened by the recent disappointing manufacturing and employment reports, and there was caution ahead of the Non-Farm monthly employment report due out tonight.  

    The S&P500 closed below the 1400 level for the first time in a week. All 10 sectors in the S&P500 traded in the red for the session with the falls led by the materials and energy sectors on the back of weaker commodity prices, due to concerns overn slowing economic global growth.  

    In economic news the US non-manufacturing sector data showed expansion slowed more than expected in April, according to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) with the non-manufacturing purchasing index falling to 53.5 last month (down from 56 in March).  Traders took some profits ahead of the Non-Farms Payrolls report, which economists expect the report to show that 168,000 jobs were added last month, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 8.2%.

    All ten company groups that make up the S&P index traded lower, with the Materials down -1.1% , Energy sector was down -1.7%, Financials sector down -0.8%,  Industrials sector was down -0.8%, Technology was down -0.8%,  while Consumer Staples were down -0.8%.

    The Dow Jones closed down -0.5% (or -62 points) at 13,206, the S&P 500 index down -0.8% (or -10 points) at 1,391, the Nasdaq ended down -1.2 (or -35 points) at 3,024  and the smaller cap Russell 2000 was down -1.5%. 

    European Markets

    European stock markets ended modestly lower overnight. The Stoxx Europe 600 index closed 0.1% higher, off its session highs.  

    Across the region stocks initially traded modestly higher, after Spain sold EUR2.52 billion worth of bonds at an auction, slightly above the high end of the $1.5-$2.5 billion targeted range.  However sellers stepped in after European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi said the eurozone outlook is not improving, but did not offer any indication of further monetary easing for the eurozone, saying policy makers felt monetary policy remained “accommodative” given historically low nominal interest rates and negative real interest rates. Banks led the falls across the region but miners weighed heavily as commodities prices declined. 

    In London the FTSE 100 index last closed up 0.2% (or 8  points) at  5,766, the German DAX was closed down -0.2% (or -16  points) at 6,694 while in France the CAC was closed down -0.2% at 3,223, Spain closed up 0.3% and Italy closed down -0.7%.
     

    Asian Markets

    Asian share markets ended mostly lower yesterday, after disappointing manufacturing and employment reports from the US and the eurozone sparked concerns of slowing global economic growth.  
     
    In China the market edged higher, but Hong Kong and South Korean markets finished around -0.3% lower, while the Japanese market remains closed for the balance of the week.  Across the region cyclical stocks and exporters led the falls due to economic growth concerns and financials also sold-down.

    In China the SSE Composite closed up 0.1% (or 2 points)   at 2,440, while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index closed  down -0.3% (or -59 points) at 21,249 and in Japan the Nikkei 225 Index  was closed  at 9,380, South Korean KOSPI was down -0.2% for the session, while the Indian market closed down -0.8%.  

    Commodities   

    The Dollar Index was higher at 79 on a lower Euro, while the Australian Dollar last traded lower at 1.0264. Commodities prices traded lower.For the session the Benchmark crude NYMEX for June delivery was down -2.5% settled at $US102.59.  Copper prices are backing off key resistance level as Copper for June delivery was down -1.3% (or -5 cents) at $US3.737, while June gold was down -1.1% (or -$US17.30) at $US1,637.

    ASX News Today

    AAD – Ardent Leisure Group the owner of some of Australia’s most popular theme parks says lower interest rates can only be good for business.
     
    CBA – Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) has cut its standard variable home loan rate by 40 basis points to 7.01 per cent.
     
    CMJ – James packer is looking to offload his stake in Consolidated Media Holdings, New Corp is the likely buyer.
     
    HVN – Harvey Norman say its pre-tax profit for the first nine months of the financial year is down 25 percent as sales continued to fall in the three months March.
     
    STO – Santos the oil and gas producer Santos says reserving Australia’s natural gas resources for its own use would be counter-productive.
     
    TAH – Tabcorp has generated more revenue in the first three months of the calendar year, partly as a result of greater interest in fixed-odds betting and the animated racing game, Trackside.
     
    TSE – Transfield Services’ public transport joint venture has won an $800 million contract to maintain and operate Sydney’s famous harbour ferry services.
     
    WBC – Westpac Bankis unlikely to pass on the full RBA’a 0.5 percent rate cut despite making a near $3 billion profit in the first half of its fiscal year.

    Corporate News

    Reporting today:  
     
    Leighton Holdings (LEI)    Q3 2012 Activities Report

    Ex-dividend Date

    Australian Pharma (API)

    Market Summary   

    ASX – to open lower
    US & UK/Europe – sharply lower

    Commodities Stock Index down -2.4%
    Gold Stocks Index down -3.5%
    Oil Stocks Index  down -1.7% 

    US ADRs – Broadly Lower!!… 

    BHP down -2.1%, RIO down -3.3%; AWC down -4.2%
    ANZ down -% & NAB down -0.6%
    NEM down -2.0%, JHX down -0.7%, NWS down -0.9%

    By Michael Hevern

    Head of Research
     
    For Buy and Sell recommendations on ASX listed companies register for a FREE trial of MDS Financial Research.

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    Stock Market Analysis: Markets Down on Poor Eurozone Employment and Manufacturing Data

    Thursday, May 3rd, 2012

    *  US stock markets finished mostly lower overnight, after disappointing eurozone manufacturing and employment data and weaker-than-expected weekly jobs report ahead of the Non-Farm monthly employment report due out on Friday.
    *  European stock markets declined overnight, as the falls were led by the financials.
    *  Asian stock markets ended higher yesterday, as traders played catchup with the US market.
    *  Commodities prices were lower, with Gold prices traded around $US1,653 while crude-oil closed around $US105.

    The Australian market remained at its highest level since last July, and shares may ease today after many stock markets returned from their May Day holiday overseas.  Markets sold-down on their return from holiday in the European markets and in the US as traders reacted to disappointing employment and manufacturing data.

    The SPI Futures is trading above the key pivot level of 4360, ended up 0.1% (or 3 points) at 4,432. The key levels for our index today are 4380 to 4460.

    See below for ASX listed companies in the news today.

    Economics News Today
    *  Apr     Australian PSI
    *  Apr     VFACTS vehicle sales.

    US Markets

    US stock markets finished mostly lower overnight, after disappointing eurozone manufacturing and employment data and weaker-than-expected weekly jobs report ahead of the Non-Farm monthly employment report due out on Friday.  

    The Dow Jones Industrial backed of 4-year highs, while in the broader markets the S&P500 and the Nasdaq eased -0.3%. The energy and financial sectors led the falls, but the consumer staples and consumer discretionary sectors did provide some support limiting the overall index declines.  

    Trader mood was dampened by weaker US economic data and disappointing eurozone readings on manufacturing and employment data, as European umployment hit a 15 year high.  Selling came after a report on private-sector job growth in April showed an increase of just 119,000 jobs, substantially below the expected 175,000 new jobs and sharply lower than March’s downwardly revised gain of 201,000 jobs.  Also factory orders in March declined 1.5% from February, in line with expectations.  The energy sector turned around after Chesapeake Energy plunged -15% after reporting its first-quarter earnings and revenue missed expectations. 

    All ten company groups that make up the S&P index traded mixed, with the Materials down -0.5% , Energy sector was down -1.6%, Financials sector down -0.8%,  Industrials sector was up 0.1%, Technology was up 0.1%,  while Consumer Staples were up 0.5%.

    The Dow Jones closed down -0.1% (or -10 points) at 13,269, the S&P 500 index down -0.3% (or -3 points) at 1,402, the Nasdaq ended up 0.3% (or 9 points) at 3,059  and the smaller cap Russell 2000 was up 0.3%.

    European Markets

    European stock markets declined overnight, as the falls were led by the financials. The Stoxx Europe 600 index ended down 0.4%.  

    Financials arcoss the region led the falls, as the key markets in London and Germany fell around -1.0%, but in France the market ended higher. Traders in France where buoyed after sentiment recieved a boost from the country’s PMI for April, which recorded a sligt rise for the month.  

    Markets in the PIIGS economies where weak down another -2% in Spain, Italy and Greece, as these economies continue to battle their debt crisis issues.  Banking stocks in both Spain and Italy posted large losses. Also dampening the mood was data that the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in the 17-nation eurozone rose to 10.9% in March, a euro-era high, while eurozone manufacturing activity shrank in April at a faster pace than previously estimated.  In Italy the purchasing managers index (PMI) dropped 43.8, highlighting concerns about the country’s manufacturing sector, while Spain and Greece saw their downturns accelerating. Europe continues to put a brake on any global bullishness, as growth slow and debt rises. 

    In London the FTSE 100 index last closed down -0.9% (or -54  points) at  5,758, the German DAX was closed down -0.8% (or -54  points) at 6,711 while in France the CAC was closed up 0.4% at 3,226, Spain closed down -2.6% and Italy closed down -2.6%.

    Asian Markets

    Asian stock markets ended higher yesterday, as traders played catchup with the US market.  Traders returned from their May Day holiday in a positive mood, boosted by better-than-expected.  
    The Chinese market jumped almost 2% as it traded for the first time in a week, while in Hong Kong and South Korea the markets rose 1%.  It was the first time Chinese traders had to react to the better-than-expected PMI manufacturing data, as official data showed the Chinese manufacturing sector is steadily improving and was up for a fifth straight month in April. This upward revision to the April final PMI reading, compared to the preliminary HSBC estimate, confirms that the pace of the Chinese slowdown is stabilising.

    In China the SSE Composite closed up 1.8% (or 42 points)   at 2,438, while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index closed  up 1.0% (or 214 points) at 21,309 and in Japan the Nikkei 225 Index  closed up 0.3% (or 29 points)  at 9,380, South Korean KOSPI was up 1.0% for the session, while the Indian market closed down -0.1%. 

    Commodities

    The Dollar Index was higher at 78.9 on a lower Euro, while the Australian Dollar last traded lower at 1.0333. Commodities prices traded generally lower.

    For the session the Benchmark crude NYMEX for May delivery was up 0.1% settled at $US105.37.  Copper prices are backing off key resistance level as Copper for May delivery was down -1.6% (or -6 cents) at $US3.7835, while May gold was down -0.1% (or -$US0.20) at $US1,653.
     
    ASX News Today

    ANZ – ANZ Bank has lifted its 1H12 profit by 10 percent to $2.9 billion, but warns margins in its Australian business are declining.

    APN – APN News and Media says its NZ media properties are under strategic review and has flagged a fall in 1H12 net profit.

    AQA – Aquila Resources says the $430 million sale of its half interest in the Isaac Plains coal mine in Queensland is a step closer to being officially sold, following Foreign Investment Review Board’s (FIRB) approval.

    AWC – Alumina says pricing and demand will remain subdued in 2012, due to the high Australian dollar continues to put the company under pressure.

    BOQ –  Bank of Queensland has cut its variable home loan rates by 0.35 percent, less than the RBA 0.5 percent cut.

    BXB – Brambles says it is on track to meet its full year profit target after unveiling a 33 percent rise in its latest sales results.

    NAB – National Australia Bank has cut its variable home loan rates by 0.32 percent, less than the RBA 0.5 percent cut.

    NWS – News Corporation investors have ignored the UK parliamentary inquiry into the phone hacking scandal, which found chairman and chief executive Rupert Murdoch was “not a fit person” to run a major international company.

    ORG – Origin Energy has struck a deal to supply gas to a joint venture of major energy suppliers.  The deal is a major commercial boost for Origin, which produced 30.9 PJe of gas in the three months to March 31, and 135 PJe in the year to 30 June 2011.

    SGT – Singtel the Optus telco giant has slashed 750 jobs as part of a restructure.
    Corporate News

    Reporting today:  
     
    IRESS Market Technology Ltd    Full year 2011 AGM 
    Santos Ltd (STO.AU)            Full year 2011 AGM 
    Westpac Banking Corp (WBC.AU)  Interim 2012

     

    Ex-dividend Date
    None

    Market Summary 

    ASX – to open lower
    US & UK/Europe – lower

    Commodities Stock Index down -1.3%
    Gold Stocks Index down -1.5%
    Oil Stocks Index  down -1.0% 

    US ADRs – Broadly Higher!!… 

    BHP down -0.7%, RIO down -2.0%; AWC down -0.2%

    ANZ down -2.2% & NAB down -1.0%
    NEM down -2.0%, JHX up 0.3%, NWS up 0.5%

    By Michael Hevern

    Head of Research
     
    For Buy and Sell recommendations on ASX listed companies register for a FREE trial of MDS Financial Research.

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    Stock Market Analysis: Traders Cheer Chinese and US Improving Manufacturing Data

    Wednesday, May 2nd, 2012

    *  US stock markets continued to rebound overnight, as the earnings season continues to be robust and the ISM manufacturing data impressed.
    *  Many European stock markets were closed.
    *  Asian stock markets ended mixed yesterday, as Chinese PMI manufacturing data came in better-than-expected and the RBA surprised cutting rates by 50 basis points.
    *  Commodities prices were higher, with Gold prices traded around $US1,662 while crude-oil closed around $US106.

    The Australian market closed at its highest level since last July, and shares are expected to hold on to recent gains today on the back of the RBA decision, and after many stock markets were closed for May Day overseas.  Markets that were open jumped higher from the open in the European markets and in the US as traders reacted to the Chinese PMI figures which confirmed continued expension for a fifth straight month. In Australia the RBA surprised economists by cutting rates by 50 basis points, to 3.75% cash rate, citing concerns that the banks were not going to pass on the full cut to their customers because of high funding costs from overseas.

    The SPI Futures is trading above the key pivot level of 4360, ended up 0.5% (or 22 points) at 4,439. The key levels for our index today are 4380 to 4460.

    See below for ASX listed companies in the news today.

    US Markets

    US stock markets continued higher overnight on the back of improving ISM manufacturing data.  The surprisingly strong reading on domestic manufacturing boosted sentiment and helped push stock prices higher.  The Institute of Supply Management’s (ISM) report that showed that in April the U.S. manufacturing sector’s expansion rose to its highest level in almost a year.  
    The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose to its best level since December 2007.  In the broader markets the S&P500 and the Nasdaq ended higher, but well off their highs.  The energy sector led the gains as all 10 S&P500 sectors finished in the green.  Traders cheered the fact that this better-than-forecast report comes at a key pivot level for the markets after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished April with their first monthly declines this year.

    All ten company groups that make up the S&P index traded higher, with the Materials up 0.6% , Energy sector was up  1.4%, Financials sector up 1.0%,  Industrials sector was up 0.3%, Technology was up 0.3%,  while Consumer Staples were up 0.7%.

    The Dow Jones closed up 0.5% (or 65 points) at 13,279, the S&P 500 index up 0.6% (or 8 points) at 1,406, the Nasdaq ended up 0.1% (or 4 points) at 3,050  and the smaller cap Russell 2000 was down -0.1%.

    European Markets

    Many European stock markets were closed overnight. The Stoxx Europe 600 index rose 0.4% as European stocks that were trading rose, due to the positive news on manufacturing from the US and China.   
    The surprise improvement in US manufacturing activity, helped push banking stocks higher in London after well-received earnings from Lloyds Banking Group PLC which saw its shares jump 8.3%. However the index backed off its highs after data showed manufacturing activity in the UK expanded at a slower pace in April , as the Markit/CIPS manufacturing purchasing managers’ index fell to 50.5 in April (down from 51.9), below economist expectations. 
    In London the FTSE 100 index last closed up 1.3% (or 74  points) at  5,812, the German DAX was closed at 6,761 while in France the CAC was closed at 3,213, Spain and Italy were closed.

    Asian Markets

    Asian stock markets ended mixed yesterday, as Chinese PMI manufacturing data came in better-than-expected and the RBA surprised cutting rates by 50 basis points. The Chinese, Malaysian, South Korean, Taiwan and Thailand mmakets were all closed for a public holiday.  
    Across the region financials were broadly weaker after a poor session for financials in the eurozone.  In Japan the market, returned from a 3-day weekend on a sour note with losses from exporters due yen strength and as Japanese investors played catch up on the corporate earnings front with Nippon Electric Glass Co. plunging -8.6% after issuing weaker-than-expected profit guidance, while Sharp Corp slumping -9.3% after posting its worst-ever fiscal-year.  
    Chinese manufacturing expanded at the fastest pace in a year and was a fifth straight reading above the 50 level indicating continued economic expansion, reducing pressure on policy makers to pursue credit easing in the world’s second-largest economy.  The Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to 53.3 in April (up from 53.1).  In Australia the RBA surprised economists by cutting rates by 50 basis points, to 3.75% cash rate, citing concerns that the banks were not going to pass on the full cut to their customers because of high funding costs from overseas.

    In China the SSE Composite last closed  at 2,396, while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index last closed  at 21,094 and in Japan the Nikkei 225 Index  was closed down -0.3% (or -170 points)  at 9,350, South Korean KOSPI was up 0.3% for the session, while the Indian market closed up 0.8%.

    Commodities

    The Dollar Index was lower at 78.77 on a higher Euro, while the Australian Dollar last traded lower at 1.0335. Commodities prices traded generally higher.

    For the session the Benchmark crude NYMEX for May delivery was  up 1.1% settled at $US105.96.  Copper prices are backing off key resistance level as Copper for May delivery was up 0.2% (or 0.8 cents) at $US3.837. May gold was down -0.1% (or -$US1.80) at $US1,662.40.
     
    ASX News Today

    ALS – Alesco has had a bid from the DuluxGroup the paint manufacturer who have offered $188.4 million for a complete takeover of garage door and cabinet maker.

    DOW – Downer EDI plans to merge its NZ and Australian and infrastructure businesses into one company called Downer Infrastructure.

    FUN – Funtastic the toy distributor expects to return to profitability in fiscal 2012 due to improved margins and cost cutting.

    MGR – Mirvac Group the property developer and manager has reaffirmed its full year financial guidance as market conditions remain in line with its expectations.

    QAN – Qantas will cut around 400 jobs at Qantas’ Tullamarine heavy maintenance base in Victoria.

    SGP – Stockland Group the global property developer has reaffirmed its recent earnings guidance for the 2012 financial year.

    WPL – Woodside Petroleum has sealed a $2 billion deal to sell part of its stake in the proposed Browse LNG Development to Japan Australia LNG.

    WTF – Wotif.com the online travel company, said it expects its full year profit to grow by up to 15 percent.
    Corporate News

    Reporting today:  
     
    ANZ Bank (ANZ)                   Interim 2012 Results
    Alumina Ltd (AWC)                Full year 2012 AGM
    Aristocrat Leisure (ALL)         Full year 2011 AGM
    APN News & Media Ltd (APN)       Full year 2011 AGM 
    Henderson Group (HGG)            Full year 2011 AGM
    Woodside Petroleum (WPL)         Full year 2011 AGM
    Saracen Mineral Holdings  (SAR)  Quarterly Activities Report

     

    Ex-dividend Date
    None

    Market Summary  

    ASX – to open higher
    US & UK/Europe – higher

    Commodities Stock Index up 1.6%
    Gold Stocks Index up 0.4%
    Oil Stocks Index  up 1.0% 

    US ADRs – Broadly Higher!!…  

    BHP up 1.6%, RIO up 1.6%; AWC up 0.4%

    ANZ up 0.4% & NAB down -0.1%
    NEM up 0.8%, JHX down -0.4%, NWS up 1.2%

    By Michael Hevern

    Head of Research
     
    For Buy and Sell recommendations on ASX listed companies register for a FREE trial of MDS Financial Research.

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    Stock Market Analysis: Spanish Recession Sends Traders To The Exits

    Tuesday, May 1st, 2012

    *  US stock markets continued to rebound overnight, as the earnings season continues to be robust and “Bernanke Put” remains in play.
    *  European stock markets eased to finish off April, as concerns over the Spanish banking system prevailed, with a move by the S&P to downgrade Spanish banks casting a shadow over the whole eurozone financial system.
    *  Asian stock markets drifted higher on the last day of April.  The Japanese and mainland Chinese markets were closed for a public holiday.
    *  Commodities prices were higher, with Gold prices traded around $US1,654, while crude-oil closed around $US104.

    The Australian market closed at its highest level since last July, but shares are expected to ease today ahead of the RBA decision, and after stocks eased overseas.  Markets were weaker from the open in the European markets and in the US as traders took profits at the end of the month.

    The SPI Futures is trading above the key pivot level of 4320, ended down -0.1% (or -3 points) at 4,394. The key levels for our index today are 4350 to 4420.

    See below for ASX listed companies in the news today.

    Economics News Today
    *  Apr     Australian PMI
    *  Q1      House Price Indexes: Eight Capital Cities
    *  May    RBA Australian cash rate decision
    *  Apr     Commodity Price Index.
    * Chinese Manufacturing  Report

    US Markets

    US markets ease, but they still generate at multi-month gains. 

    The Dow Jones held on to its monthly winning streak is now the longest in five years, for for 7-consecutive months.  In the braoder markets the S&P500 posted its first monthly retreat since November.  The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite and posted its first monthly retreat since December, but is still outperforming.  Traders were cautious as economic concerns prevail at home and abroad.  

    In economic news the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Chicago business barometer fell to 56.2 in April (down from 62.2), hitting a 29-month low and below analysts expectations, while the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Texas manufacturing production index fell to 5.6 this month from 11.1 in March and the Dallas Fed’s reading on April business activity swung to a -3.4 from March’s 10.8 score, indicating that the firms that reported a decrease in activity outnumber those reporting an increase.

    The news from Spain that the Spanish economy contracted for the second consecutive quarter also damped the mood. However on a positive note the Commerce Department reported the US personal spending slowed in March, rising 0.3%, this reading fell just below of the 0.4% growth forecast by economists and there was an upwardly revised February increase of 0.9%, the biggest gain in over two and a half years.   For the month The Dow Jones rose 0.1%, while the S&P500 fell -1.1% and the Nasdaq fell -1.5%.

     All ten company groups that make up the S&P index traded lower except for Energy, with the Materials down -0.7% , Energy sector was up  0.6%, Financials sector down -0.5%,  Industrials sector was down -0.9%, Technology was down -0.7%,  while Consumer Staples were down -0.6%.

    The Dow Jones closed down -0.1% (or -11 points) at 13,213, the S&P 500 index down -0.4% (or -5 points) at 1,398, the Nasdaq ended down -0.7% (or -23 points) at 3,046  and the smaller cap Russell 2000 was down -1.1%.

    European Markets

    European stock markets eased to finish off April, as concerns over the Spanish banking system prevailed, with a move by the S&P to downgrade Spanish banks casting a shadow over the whole eurozone financial system.  The Stoxx Europe 600 index fell 0.7%, recording a loss of -2.3% for April.

    Across the region the financials led the falls, but eurozone stocks extended losses in afternoon session after US manufacturing data disappointed.  The focus was on Spain as data showed that the economy contracted -0.3% in the first quarter from the fourth, and 0.4% on annual basis and the Standard & Poor’s Rating Agency downgraded 11 Spanish banks, resulting in some that are now sub-investment grade, and 5 other banks have had their outlook lowered.  All this news is making traders become more convinced that Spain will require some form of international aid near-term.

    The Spanish market fell -1.9% and has plunged -12.4% during the month and is down more than 18% for the year.   For the month the London market fell -0.6% and the German market closed -3.2%.

    Asian Markets

    Asian stock markets drifted higher on the last day of April.  The Japanese and mainland Chinese markets were closed for a public holiday.  
     
    Across the region the gains were led by the Hong Kong market, however the gains were held in check ahead of key events, including the reading on Chinese manufacturing and today’s RBA interest rate decision. Financial stocks led the gains as Morgan Stanley analysts raised their earnings estimates for Chinese banks up to 14% for 2012 and 2013 after the results, citing lower credit costs. Energy stocks also performed well after positive earnings reports as China Shenhua Energy Co. gained 2.2%, and China Coal Energy Co. jumped 4%.  
     
    In China the SSE Composite last closed at 2,396, while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index last closed  up 1.7% (or 353 points) at 21,094 and in Japan the Nikkei 225 Index   last closed at 9,521, South Korean KOSPI was up 0.3% for the session, while the Indian market closed up 0.8%.
    For the month, the Japanese Nikkei Stock Average lost -5.6%, the Chinese Shanghai Composite jumped 5.9%, while  Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index rose 2.6%, the South Korean Kospi lost -1.6%. 

    Commodities

    The Dollar Index was lower at 78.77 on a higher Euro, while the Australian Dollar last traded lower at 1.0413. Commodities prices traded generally higher.

    For the session the Benchmark crude NYMEX for May delivery was  flat settled at $US104.84.  Copper prices are backing off key resistance level as Copper for May delivery was up 0.2% (or 0.7 cents) at $US3.405. May gold was up 0.1% (or $US2.30) at $US1,665.70.
     
     
    ASX News Today

    BHP – BHP Billiton has paid Archer Exploration $8 million to buy out its five tenements near its massive Olympic Dam mine.

    BTT – BT Investment Management says first half profit dropped 24 percent due to weaker equity markets and the cost of a recent acquisition.

    FMG – As the MRRT Tax looms, Fortescue boss Andrew Forrest accuses Treasurer Wayne Swan of misleading taxpayers about the amount of revenue the federal government will get from its mining tax.

    FNP – Freedom Foods’ business unit Pactum Australia will build a UHT processing plant in southeast Australia to meet increased domestic and export demand.

    NAB – National Australia Bank will restructure its loss making business in the UK after it contributed to a 15.6 percent fall in the group’s first half profit.

    ORI – Orica says a shipload of potentially explosive chemicals sitting off  Newcastle was given the all-clear by a federal agency.

    SPT – Spotless the industrial services company has agreed to a full take-over by private equity firm Pacific Equity Partners (PEP) for a total cash consideration of $2.71 per share.

    UGL – UGL and CH2M Hill have won a $550 million contract to build the combined cycle power plant for the Ichthys liquefied natural gas (LNG) project in the Northern Territory.

    Corporate News

    Reporting today:  
     
    Harvey Norman Holdings (HVN) Q1 2012 Sales 
    Resource Generation (RES)    March Quarterly Report
    Fairfax Media (FXJ)          Trading statement 

     

    Ex-dividend Date

    None

    Market Summary 

    ASX – to open lower
    US & UK/Europe – lower

    Commodities Stock Index down -0.2%
    Gold Stocks Index down -0.7%
    Oil Stocks Index  up 0.1%  

    BHP up 0.1%, RIO down -1.6%; AWC down -1.9%

    ANZ  down -0.5% & NAB down -1.5%
    NEM down -0.4%, JHX down , NWS down -0.2%

    By Michael Hevern

    Head of Research
     
    For Buy and Sell recommendations on ASX listed companies register for a FREE trial of MDS Financial Research.

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    Stock Market Analysis: Markets Continue Their Rebound

    Monday, April 30th, 2012

    *  US stock markets have recorded their biggest weekly rise in the past six.
    *  European markets traded broadly higher on Friday and closed higher for the week.
    *  Asian stock markets traded mostly lower on Friday, after a downgrade of Spanish credit rating.
    *  Commodities prices were higher, with Gold prices traded around $US1,663, while crude-oil closed around $US105.

    Australian shares are expected to trade higher, and after stocks continued higher overseas.  Markets again jumped higher from the open in the European markets and in the US as traders chose to keep their “risk-on” focus.  The RBA meets on Tuesday and are expected to increase rates by 25 basis points.

    The SPI Futures is trading above the key pivot level of 4320, ended up 0.6% (or 28 points) at 4,397. The key levels for our index this week are 4280 to 4450.

    See below for ASX listed companies in the news today.

    US Markets

    US stock markets have recorded their biggest weekly rise in the past six.

    The Dow Jones Industrial Index and the S&P500 index were up over 1.5% for the week, rising for the past 4-sessions to record their bigest weekly gains since mid-March.  The tech-heavy Nasdaq continues to outperform up  2.3% for the week, to record its largest weekly rise in 3-months. 

    The Dow Jones is looking to record yet another month of gains, which would be its seventh straight monthly advance and its longest winning streak in 5-years.  The Consumer Discretionary , Industrails and the Materials sectors all led the gains for the session. 

    Traders brushed off a downbeat 1Q economic growth report from the Commerce Department’s first reading on gross domestic product (GDP), a broad measure of all the goods and services produced in the economy, which came in lower than expected. 

    In corporate news Amazon the online retailer surged 16%, after reporting 1Q revenue jumpimg 34% and Expedia soared 24% hitting an all-time high after the online travel agent recorded better-than-forecast 1Q adjusted earnings and revenue. 

    Thompson Reuters has reported that 57% of the S&P500 companies have reported their 1Q results and of those 287 companies that have reported their earnings 73% have posted better-than-analysts forecast. This is a busy week for economic news with the ISM manufacturing PMI data (a leading indicator) and the monthly Non-Farm Employment report.

    All ten company groups that make up the S&P index traded mixed, with the Materials up 0.5% , Energy sector was down -0.1%, Financials sector up 0.1%,  Industrials sector was up 0.6%, Technology was down -0.1%,  while Consumer Staples were up 1.3%.

    The Dow Jones closed up 0.2% (or 24 points) at 13,228, the S&P 500 index up 0.2% (or 3 points) at 1,403, the Nasdaq ended up 0.6% (or 19 points) at 3,069  and the smaller cap Russell 2000 was up 0.9%.

    European Markets

    European markets traded broadly higher on Friday and closed higher for the week.  The Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.8% to record its fifth advance in the past six sessions. 

    Across the region eurozone markets have advanced for a second week, on the back of better-than-expected earnings and despite the politcal uncertainties in France and the Netherlands.  

    For the week the Stoxx Europe 600 has risen 1.7%, however it is still down -4.9% from its 2012 high, back in March.  In the UK the economy has fallen into a double-dip recession, its first since the 1970s.  Over 100 of the Stoxx Europe 600 companies reported last week, with only 7% topping estimates, according to Bloomberg.

    In London the FTSE 100 index last closed up 0.5% (or 28 points) at  5,777, the German DAX was last up 0.9% (or 61 points) at 6,801 while in France the CAC was last up 1.1% (or 37 points)  at 3,266, Spain was up 1.6% and Italy ended up 1.9%.  

    Asian Markets

    Asian stock markets traded mostly lower on Friday, after a downgrade of Spanish credit rating. 

    Asian stocks have been under selling pressure for a second week due to the concerns over the eurozone debt issues and the BoJ disappointing investors. 

    Across the region the slowing down of the Chinese economy and the eurozone concerns have outweighed the positive corporate reporting in the US.  In Japan the Nikkei Stock Index closed down -0.4% after the central bank (BoJ) said it would increase its asset-purchase program, but there are concerns over deflation within the economy. 

    In China the Shanghai Composite has declined -0.4% for the week and the Hong Kong Hang Seng has fallen -1.3%, as tradrs have shown caution after recent data have shown that the Chinese maufacturing sector has contracted for a sixth straight month. 

    In China the SSE Composite last closed down -0.3% (or -8 points) at  at 2,396, while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index last closed  down -0.3% (or -68 points) at 20,741 and in Japan the Nikkei 225 Index  was closed down -0.4 (or -41 points)  at 9,521, South Korean KOSPI was up 0.6% for the session, while the Indian market closed up 0.3%.

    Commodities

    The Dollar Index was lower at 78.71 on a higher Euro, while the Australian Dollar last traded lower at 1.0475. Commodities prices traded generally higher.

    For the session the Benchmark crude NYMEX for April delivery was  up 0.3% (or $US0.38) settled at $US104.80.  Copper prices are backing off key resistance level as Copper for April delivery was up 1.4% (or 5.1 cents) at $US3.8285. April gold was up 0.3% (or $US4.40) at $US1,663.20.
    ASX News Today

    AGK – The competition watchdog will make its decision on AGL Energy’s bid to take full control of Australia’s largest brown coal power station in May.

    AGO – Atlas Iron the WA miner says it remains on track to meet its full year production target of 5.5 to 5.7 million tonnes (Mt).

    JBH – JBH Hi-Fi the home entertainment retailer expects its profit to fall in the current financial year as its margins are impacted by heavy discounting.

    MQG – Macquarie Group says full year profit has fallen 24 percent as global economic uncertainty results in significantly lower levels of investment activity.

    NWS – Newscorp is facing the British media regulator stepping up its probe into whether BSkyB, the pay-TV giant partly owned by Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp, is a “fit and proper” owner of a broadcasting licence.

    PMP – PMP the printer, publisher and direct marketer has received a take-over offer worth up to $252 million.

    TLS – Telstra, the AFL, and NRL have won an appeal in the Federal Court against an earlier ruling that allowed Optus customers to record and watch football matches on delay.

    SPT – Spotless is in a trading halt pending an announcement about its takeover talks with a private equity firm.

    STO  – The Queensland government says the development of a major LNG plant in Gladstone will lead to improved services and infrastructure for the city.

    WES – Coles the supermarket giant has been fined $170,000 and ordered to pay legal costs after a worker fell through a ceiling at store in Sydney five years ago.
    Corporate News

    Reporting today:  
     
    AWE Ltd (AWE)               March Quarterly Report
    Grange Resources Ltd (GRR)  March Quarterly Report
    Lynas Corporation (LYC)     March Activities Report
    Origin Energy Ltd (ORG)     Quarterly Production Report

     

    Ex-dividend Date

    Henderson Group (HGG)

    Market Summary 

    ASX – to open higher
    US & UK/Europe – higher

    Commodities Stock Index up 0.1%
    Gold Stocks Index up 1.7%
    Oil Stocks Index  down -0.1% 

    US ADRs – Broadly Higher!!… 

    BHP up 0.8%, RIO up 1.0%; AWC up 1.5%
    ANZ  up 0.2% & NAB up 0.1%
    NEM up 0.6%, JHX up 1.7%, NWS down -0.2%

    By Michael Hevern

    Head of Research
     
    For Buy and Sell recommendations on ASX listed companies register for a FREE trial of MDS Financial Research.

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    Boosting Dividend Yield Using Warrants: Part 2 of Warrant Trading for All Types of Market Environments

    Friday, April 27th, 2012

    Market cycles drive portfolio performance and one of the more reliable recurring cycles in the market is the cycle that is driven by banks and their dividend payment cycles. Banks tend to outperform the overall market in the six weeks prior to going ex-dividend, and as the bank dividend season is fast approaching, we thought it timely to discuss how you can boost your dividend yield by trading bank shares using instalment warrants.

    Instalment warrants allow investors to generate higher franked dividend income compared to a direct share investment and can be traded in your self-managed super fund (SMSF).

    Instalment Warrants

    Instalment warrants have been around for a while and are traded on the ASX. Instalment warrants are a geared investment which give the investor all the benefits of share ownership, including access to the full cash dividend amount and the associated franking credits. SMSF investors can gain the economic benefit of the share ownership for a fraction of the cost of purchasing the underlying shares outright.

    Instalment warrants have a six letter code, eg. ANZIOW. The first three identify the stock, the fourth letter the warrant type (I=Instalment), the fifth letter the issuer, and the last letter signals the series (or leverage).

    Instalment warrants are a type of warrant listed on the ASX:

    • They are a leveraged trading instrument providing investors with upward of 30% gearing on the underlying asset, while having all benefits of share ownership.
    • Investors can choose their level of leverage based on their own risk profile, as there are a number of instalment warrants (or leverage levels) available for each stock.
    • Before trading instalment warrants , traders need to read and understand the ASX Understanding Warrants Booklet and then sign the Warrant Agreement form. Speak to your broker or contact us at D2MX on 1300 610 024.

    The key features of instalment warrants include:

    • They are instruments traded and regulated on the Australian Securities Exchange.
    •  You can trade long and participate in the dividends and franking credits.
    •  There are NO margin calls.
    •  Instalment warrants are an efficient way to trade dividend-paying stocks to boost yields.
    •  No credit checks or approvals required.

    The main benefits of trading instalment warrants on dividend-paying stocks:

    • Increased dividend income and franking credits
    • A lower capital outlay is required to achieve the same dividend income.
    • Can offer potential tax benefits.
    • The maximum loss is limited to the initial outlay.
    • Can be traded in your Self managed Super Funds (SMSF)

    The risk of trading instalment warrants:

    •  As with any leveraged investment product, the price of the underlying asset may fall prior to the time of sale (or even prior to the ex-div date).
    •  The value of the instalment warrant could fall or be significantly less valuable on its maturity date, or may expire worthless, resulting in a total loss of the initial monies outlaid for the trade.
    • Leverage is a two-edged sword: it enhances any gains but would also increase any loss sustained.

    Instalment Warrant Terminology
    The instalment warrant is made up of three parameters:

    • The Instalment Value (the prices at which it trades)
    • The Final Instalment Price (the loan amount)
    •  The Maturity Date (the date on which the Instalment ceases to trade or is rolled)

    Case Study

    Sam wants to trade ANZ for the dividend and franking credits, and is looking to boost her returns. She plans to trade ANZ on 13th of April 2012 when ANZ is trading at $23.00 (and Instalment Warrant ANZIOW is trading at $13.40), and ANZ is expected to go Ex-div $0.65 on the 12th of May 2012.

    Note: This case study is general in nature and does not incorporate any specific tax or personal circumstances of the investor.  Please seek any tax advice from a qualified taxation professional.

    The Instalment Warrant and Share Trade Comparisons
    The trade needs to be held for 45 days to qualify for the franking credits, and the calculations are done assuming no capital gain – that is assuming ANZ pulls back to our original buying price of $23.00, then the trade calculations are as follows (assuming the trader’s tax rate is 46.5%):

    So if ANZ pulls back to its original purchase prices after the 45 day holding period and the position is closed, there would be no capital gain on the holding, but Sam would get to collect $2,826, plus $1,174 worth of franking credits for a grossed up yield of 4% in 45 days, if she trades ANZ using shares.

    However if Sam traded the ANZIOW instalment warrant then she would collect $4,850 in dividends, plus $2,015 worth of franking credits for a grossed up yield of 6.9% in 45 days, if she trades ANZ using instalment warrant (note if ANZ was trading at $23.00 again, there would be a funding cost of $0.10 cents per share part of which would be tax deductible).

    Of course if ANZ is trading above the purchase price after the 45-day holding period, then there would be an additional capital gain (and a capital loss if ANZ was trading below $23.00).

    Funding Cost Calculation

    In order to calculate the amount you are paying in funding costs, use the following calculation:

    Funding Cost = Share Price – Final Instalment (loan amount) – First Instalment Price (initial outlay)
                                = $23.00 – $10.00 – $13.40 = -$0.40.

    The Trade

    If you want to take advantage of the bank dividend season, then instalment warrants are an excellent way boost your yield as shown in this Case Study.

    Contact me at D2MX on 1300 610 024 and I can help you trade using instalment warrants to boost your returns. Each instalment warrant has a PDS document which details all the features of the specific warrant.’

    Warrant Trading for All Types of Market Environments Series

    Part 1 – Shorting With Limited Risk Using MINIs 
    Part 2 – Boosting Dividend Yield Using Warrants 

    Michael Hevern
    Investment Adviser
    D2MX Retial Trading

    This report was prepared by Michael Hevern. It represents the views and opinions of the author. It is not intended for use by any third party, without the approval of Michael Hevern. While this report is based on information from sources which are considered reliable, its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed reflect my judgment at this date and are subject to change. Contracting Hevern Pty Ltd is a Corporate Authorised Representative No. 408868 of D2MX Pty Limited ABN 98 113 959 596, AFSL No. 297950 (D2MX), and Michael Hevern has been appointed as an Authorised Representative of Contracting Hevern Pty Ltd. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this report are not given or endorsed by D2MX, unless otherwise indicated. The information contained in this Report is General Advice only, as the information or advice given does not take into account your particular objectives, financial situation or needs.

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    Weekly Market Wrap: Bulls Are Gaining Control Near-Term

    Friday, April 27th, 2012

    The bulls are wrestling control of the markets again, particularly in the US as the earnings season continues to beat expectations. The Aussie market remains tantalisingly close to its 9-month resistance level.

    US markets are on track to record one of their best weekly performances for the year. US stock markets continued to rebound overnight, as the earnings season continues to be robust and the “Bernanke Put” remains in play. The Federal Reserve policy-setting committee reaffirmed its commitment to keeping interest rates low at least through late 2014, and later Chairman Ben Bernanke said the Federal Reserve would not hesitate to support the economy with more easing if required, through buying more long-term bonds as in Operation Twist which is scheduled to finish in June. Economic news has been mixed, with manufacturing reports indicating a slowing in activity and the weekly jobs data somewhat disappointing. The US earnings season continues to surpass forecasts, with Apple reporting a doubling in earnings for the quarter and its market capitalisation surged by nearly $US50 billion in a single session.

    Eurozone markets have managed to drift higher this week, after the Stoxx Europe 600 index managed its first higher weekly close in 5 weeks. The drift higher has come despite a backdrop of negative news, but the jury is still out with the eurozone markets, as they have bounced but they are now testing key resistance, around their 50-day moving averages. The German market broke down to 4-month lows early in the week, after a preliminary reading of the German manufacturing purchasing managers’ index by Markit showed business activity contracted at the fastest rate since 2009, however sentiment recovered as the week progressed.

    The French market has recovered from earlier losses, sustained after a preliminary vote for their upcoming elections saw Socialist candidate Francois Hollande advance to the next round. Hollande is seen as less committed to fiscal austerity than the incumbent President Nicolas Sarkozy. France will face an election on May 6.

    In London, market gains have been capped after data showed that the British economy unexpectedly slipped into recession in the first quarter. Overnight the S&P Ratings Agency downgraded Spanish long-term credit rating to ‘BBB+’ from ‘A’.

    In Asia key markets are drifting, but are holding at or above their 50-day moving averages, with the Hong Kong market outperforming. The Chinese market held on to recent gains, despite Chinese data showing April manufacturing activity continued to contract, as the HSBC preliminary “flash” reading of China manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index showed that activity improved in April from March, but remained below the threshold of 50, indicating a contraction. Traders were cautious ahead of some key central bank policy-setting board meetings in the US and Japan, and the French pre-election. Asian traders continue to bank on the hope that the Chinese government will lean towards monetary easing in the near-term.

    In Australia the market continues to drift higher, as stocks have benefited from the positive sentiment overseas. Defensive stocks are leading the way, with Telstra at 2-year highs and the Healthcare sector pushing higher, but the materials sector continues to underperform. Banking stocks are pushing higher into their dividend and reporting season, which begins early next month. Typically the market should melt-up in the last week of the month and into the start of the new month, and at this stage it is going to plan.

    Commodity prices have again been trading sideways this week, as the US dollar has eased again. Crude-oil prices are hovering around the $US104 level and copper has again been unable to trade above $US4.00 and is holding below its 200 moving average support around $US3.60. Gold prices have again found support around $US1,640.

    The Aussie market has held above its 200 and 50 day moving averages, and is still testing its 9-month resistance level, around 4380 again. On the S&P/ASX 200 the 4280 level is now the crucial support level and 4400 is the key level on the upside. Stocks have effectively been drifting higher as we move into the bank reporting and dividend season, but we need the materials sector to participate for the market to reach new highs.

    Traders should be looking to protect their recent profits and reduce their risk by using options and warrants strategies. In this week’s Analyst’s Eye we discuss using Warrants to Boost Returns on Dividend Paying Stocks. The D2MX Financial Advisory Services team can help with these trades. Call me on 1300 610 024 for further information.

    Investors should also be looking to utilise options and warrant strategies to protect their positions and profits. Options are a relatively cheap form of insurance, as volatility remains low, and you can also leverage yourself for breakout trades as they occur.

    Remain attuned to the news from overseas, particularly from the eurozone and China in relation to easing policies, and the US, as their markets again approach their multi-year highs. Monitor the performance of China and the US dollar for a guide to the future direction of commodities and equities prices.

    The S&P/ASX 200 index is currently trading at 4368 and is holding above the key 200 day moving average. Key levels for the index next week will be 4280 and 4430, with 4300 the key short term pivot level.

    By Michael Hevern
    D2MX Retail Trading Desk

    For Buy and Sell recommendations on ASX listed companies register for a free trial of MDS Financial Research.

    This report was prepared by Michael Hevern. It represents the views and opinions of the author. It is not intended for use by any third party, without the approval of Michael Hevern. While this report is based on information from sources which are considered reliable, its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed reflect my judgment at this date and are subject to change. Contracting Hevern Pty Ltd is a Corporate Authorised Representative No. 408868 of D2MX Pty Limited ABN 98 113 959 596, AFSL No. 297950 (D2MX), and Michael Hevern has been appointed as an Authorised Representative of Contracting Hevern Pty Ltd. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this report are not given or endorsed by D2MX, unless otherwise indicated. The information contained in this Report is General Advice only, as the information or advice given does not take into account your particular objectives, financial situation or needs.

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    Stock Market Analysis: The Bulls Are Getting The Upper Hand

    Friday, April 27th, 2012
    *  US stock markets continued to rebound overnight, as the earnings season continues to be robust and “Bernanke Put” remains in play.
    *  ropean share markets ended mostly higher overnight, despite S&P downgrade of Spanish long-term credit rating.
    *  Asian stock markets finished mostly higher yesterday, on news that the Bernanke Put was still in play.
    *  Commodities prices were higher, with Gold prices traded around $US1,654, while crude-oil closed around $US104. 
     
    Australian shares are expected to be volatile this morning, after options yesterday’s expiry, and after stocks traded higher overseas.  Markets jumped higher from the open again in the European markets and in the US as traders chose “risk-on” after the Bernanke Put was confirmed to still be in play.
    The SPI Futures is trading above the key pivot level of 4250, ended up 0.4% (or 18 points) at 4,399. The key levels for our index this week are 4350 to 4430. 

    See below for ASX listed companies in the news today. 

    US Markets

    US stock markets continued to rebound overnight, as the earnings season continues to be robust and “Bernanke Put” remains in play.
    The Dow Jones Industrials had its third straight increase, while in the broader market the S&P 500 finisehd on fractionally below 1400, for its highest close in 3-weeks, as the telecoms and consumer discretionary sectors led gains in eight of the S&P 500′s 10 sectors, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq closed at 3050.
    Traders ignored disappointing reports on weekly job data where the new applications for unemployment benefits fell less than analysts expected last week, a sign the labour market recovery is slowing,  and elsewhere the the Kansas City Fed manufacturing composite index fell to 3 in April, the lowest reading since December 2011.  Trader sentiment was boosted by housing data where the National Association of Realtors found its seasonally adjusted index for pending sales of existing homes jumped 4% from a month earlier (far exceeding the expected 1.3% increase).

    All ten company groups that make up the S&P index traded generally higher, with the Materials down -0.1% , Energy sector was up 1.1%, Financials sector up 0.9%,  Industrials sector was up 0.6%, Technology was up 0.8%,  while Consumer Staples were up 0.9%.

    The Dow Jones closed up 0.9% (or 113 points) at 13,204, the S&P 500 index up 0.7% (or 9 points) at 1,400, the Nasdaq ended up 0.7% (or 21 points) at 3,050  and the smaller cap Russell 2000 was up 0.8%.

    European Markets

    European share markets ended mostly higher overnight, despite S&P downgrade of Spanish long-term credit rating to ‘BBB+’ from ‘A’.  The Stoxx Europe 600 index edged up 0.1%.  
    The three major markets rose around 0.5% in the session.  Across the region gains were muted after news that the European Commission’s overall economic sentiment indicator fell sharply more than expected to 92.8 in April from 94.5 in March, the lowest level in over a year reflected a weaker outlook across all but one of the sub-sectors.  
    Corporate news was mixed with  Volkswagen surging 8.7% after the auto maker beat analyst expectations for 1Q earnings and they confirmed their forecast for the year and Royal Dutch Shell rose 3.5% as its adjusted profit for the first quarter topped expectations. However banks were weaker, as Deutsche Bank shed 2.8% after reporting a 33% drop in 1Q profit and Banco Santander dropped 3.4% after reporting a 24% drop in 1Q profit as itsprovisions for bad loans jumped. 

    In London the FTSE 100 index last closed up 0.5% (or 29 points) at  5,749, the German DAX was last up 0.5% (or 35 points) at 6,740 while in France the CAC was last down -0.1% (or -4 points)  at 3,229, Spain was down -1.3% and Italy ended down -0.7%.  

    Asian Markets

    Asian stock markets finished mostly higher yesterday, on news that the Bernanke Put was still in play.  In Japan, investors were cautious ahead of the Bank of Japan’s policy meeting today.  The market has already factored in an  Y10 trillion expansion of the BoJ’s asset purchase program.  Chinese shares ended flat as the market holds below the 2450 level, while in Hong Kong the market continues to hover around the 21,000 level.

    In China the SSE Composite last closed down -0.1% (or -2 points) at  at 2,404, while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index last closed  up 0.8% (or 163 points) at 20,809 and in Japan the Nikkei 225 Index  was closed flat (or 1 points)  at 9,562, South Korean KOSPI was down -0.1% for the session, while the Indian market closed down -0.1%. 

    Commodities
    The Dollar Index was lower at 79.18 on a higher Euro, while the Australian Dollar last traded lower at 1.0356. Commodities prices traded generally lower.

    For the session the Benchmark crude NYMEX for April delivery was  down -0.5% (or -$US0.51) settled at $US104.04.  Copper prices are backing off key resistance level as Copper for April delivery was down -0.1% (or 0.3 cents) at $US3.7645. April gold was down -0.3% (or -$US5.10) at $US1,654.50.

     ASX News Today

    OSH – Oil Search says it is reviewing bids from potential joint venture partners in its Papua New Guinea gas projects. 
    LEI – Leighton Holdings’ says its Middle East operation is part of a joint venture awarded a $US169 million contract for work on a mine in Saudi Arabia.
    LLC – Lend Lease Group property developer says fraudulent activities that prompted a legal investigation into an arm of Lend Lease in the United States no longer occur.
    MTN – Marathon Resources the uranium explorer, will use a $5 million compensation payment from the South Australian government to investigate new projects.
    NWS – Rupert Murdoch has declared he had “never asked a prime minster for anything” as the UK inquiry into media ethics claimed its first political scalp.
    OZL – OZ Minerals lifted its production of gold and copper in the first three months of the year but costs rose due to heavy rains.
    QRN – Rail operator QR National and Atlas Iron are looking at building a new railway linking mines in WA’s Pilbara region to Port Hedland.
    SGT – SingTel says millions of dollars in sports broadcast rights will be at stake when a judgment is made in a legal battle between Optus and the nation’s two biggest football codes on today.
    SWM – Seven West Media Australia’s largest diversified media business announced a surprise earnings downgrade.

    Corporate News

    Reporting today:  
     
    Oceanagold (OGC)             Q1 2012 Results 
    Ex-dividend Date

    None

    Market Summary  ASX – to open higher
    US & UK/Europe – higher

    Commodities Stock Index up 0.3%
    Gold Stocks Index up 0.5%
    Oil Stocks Index  up 1.7% 

    US ADRs – Broadly Higher!!…  

    BHP up 0.3%, RIO down -0.3; AWC down -2.1%

    ANZ  up 0.2% & NAB up 0.6%
    NEM up 0.6%, JHX up , NWS up 1.4%

    By Michael Hevern

    Head of Research
     
    For Buy and Sell recommendations on ASX listed companies register for a FREE trial of MDS Financial Research.

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