Archive for July, 2012

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  • Stock Market Analysis: Traders Take Some Profits Ahead Of Policy Decisions

    Tuesday, July 31st, 2012

    *  US stock markets eased overnight, following the biggest 2-day rally this year.
    *  European stock markets rose for a third day, as traders continue to anticipate action from the EU leaders on easing.
    *  Asian stock markets finished mixed, with China continuing to underperform.
    *  Commodities prices generally higher, Gold prices are trading around $US1,620 while crude-oil closed up around $US90.

    The SPI Futures is trading above the key support level of 4180, ended up 0.1% (or 6 points) at 4214. The key levels for our index today are 4200 to 4230.  We may see some profit-taking today, but remember it is end-of-month. 

    In Australian the share market touched an 11-week high again, as European leaders offered reassurances that it will take action to tackle the debt crisis.  Investors are anticipating that the US Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, will update the market on the US central bank’s commitment to further easing.

    See below for ASX listed companies in the news today.

    Economics News Today

    *  June     Financial Aggregates, incl Private Sector Credit
    *  June     Building Approvals
    *  June     International Reserves & Foreign Currency Liquidity.

    US Markets

    US stock markets eased overnight, following the biggest 2-day rally this year, as the S&P500 is up 3.6% over the past 3-sessions and ahead of the Fed’s FOMC meeting and the monthly employment reports due out this week. 

    The three benchmark indexes finished modestly lower for the session, On the NYSE three stocks fell for every two gainers  The Industrials and Finance sectors saw profit-taking, while the Conumer and Energy sectors provided support. 

    In corporate news JPMorgan fell -2% after Deutsche Bank AG cut its recommendation on the stock and said earnings expectations may be too high and the homebuilders sector fell -2% as Citigroup said the industry’s shares may decline after this year’s fantastic surge. 

    The Fed policy makers meet later this week, before the Non-Farms jobs report and will decide whether additional stimulus is needed to address the slowdown in the US domestic economy, as recent reports are confirming manufacturing stagnated in July and consumer confidence fell for a fifth month.  Economists are forecasting that the jobs data will show US employers added 100,000 jobs to payrolls in July and the unemployment rate held at 8.2 percent.  

    Commodities prices rose again overnight, with the grains up another 3%.

    All ten company groups that make up the S&P index traded mixed, with Materials down -0.1%, Energy sector up 0.3%, Financials sector down -0.2%,  Industrials sector was down -0.3%, Health Care down -0.5%, Technology was up 0.1%,  while Consumer Staples were up 0.5%.

    The Dow Jones closed down -0.1% (or -3 points) at 13,073, the S&P 500 index down 0.1% (or -1 points) at 1,385, the Nasdaq ended down 0.4% at 2,946 and the smaller cap Russell 2000 was down -0.6%.

    European Markets

    European stock markets rose for a third day, as traders continue to anticipate action from the EU leaders to address the eurozone debt crisis.  The Stoxx Europe 600 Index surged another 1.6% and is now up 5% in the past week.  The Stoxx 600 has gained for eight straight weeks, its longest rally in more than six years, and has rebounded 13% from its lows in June.

    Trader sentiment remained bullish as Spanish bonds rallied on speculation policy makers will take action to ease the eurozone debt crisis.  The European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi met with US Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner in Frankfurt, following the reassurance from leaders in Berlin, Paris and Rome that backed the ECB’s commitment to protect the 17-nation euro. 

    In a busy week for economic data the ECB will meet to discuss the LTRO, interest rates and the action plan for the eurozone financial system, and eurozone unemployment will be released, and expected to be over 11%.

    In London the FTSE 100 index closed up 1.2% (or 66 points)  at  5,593, the German DAX was closed up 1.3% (or 85 points) at 6,774, while in France the CAC closed up 1.2% (or 40  points) at 3,320.

    Asian Markets

    Asian stock markets finished mixed, with China continuing to underperform.  The MSCI Emerging Markets Index added 0.8% and is at 3-week highs, across the region the gains were led by the financial stocks. 

    In Japan the market rose 0.8% as bonds fell, sending 10-year yields up the most in seven weeks, as Japanese industrial output decreased 0.1 percent in June from May’s -3.4 percent decline, and was below estimates of a 1.5 percent increase. 

    In Hong Kong the market rose, but again in China the market fell to lows not  seen since 2009, as corporate earnings reports have disappointed the markets and there are increasing concerns over what the trouble in the eurozone mean for Chinese exporters. 

    In China the SSE Composite closed down -0.9% (or -20 points) at 2,109, while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index closed  up 1.6% (or 310 points) at 19,585,  and in Japan the Nikkei 225 Index  was up 0.8% (or 69 points) at 8,635.

    Commodities

    The Dollar Index was lower at 82.795 on a higher Euro, while the Australian Dollar last traded lower at 1.0499. Commodities prices traded generally higher.

    For the session the Benchmark crude NYMEX for August delivery was down -0.4% settled at $US89.78.  Copper prices are looking for key support level as Copper for August delivery was down -0.3% at $US3.416, while August Gold was up 0.1% (or $US1.70) at $US1,620.

    ASX News Today

    APN – APN News and Media has named a new chairman and had  a lucrative advertising contract with the NSW State Transit Authority bus fleet extended.

    BPT – Beach Energy the oil and gas producer, is forecasting profit growth in the 2012-13 financial year after exceeding its production forecasts in 2011-12, and had a 15% improvement on procution on pcp and sales were up 25%.

    CWN – Crown has has Fitch Ratings has it’s Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) and its senior unsecured rating at ‘BBB’. and Outlook on the IDR is Stable, citing its strong market position as the sole licensed casino operator in the states of Victoria and WA.

    ELD – Elders the agribusiness will cut 75 jobs at its Adelaide headquarters before 30 September in a move to cut costs.

    FMS – Flinders Mines will now start developing its flagship $1.1 billion Pilbara iron ore project with no commercial impediments after a takeover bid for the miner by a Russian steel-maker fell through early in July.

    TSE – Transfield Services the engineering firm has won $100 million in new work with resources companies in the Pilbara region, WA.

    Corporate News

    Reporting today:
    None.

    Ex-dividend Date

    None

    Market Summary

    ASX – to open higher
    US & UK/Europe – EU higher & US eased

    Commodities Stock Index   up 0.1%
    Gold Stocks Index   up  1.1%
    Oil Stocks Index  up 0.3%

    US ADRs – Broadly higher!!…

    BHP down -0.4%, RIO up 0.3%; AWC down -1.4%
    ANZ up 0.8% & NAB up 0.6%
    NEM up 1.7%, JHX up 0.9%, NWS  down -0.3%

    By Michael Hevern
    Head of Research 

    For Buy and Sell recommendations on ASX listed companies register for a FREE trial of  FREE trial of D2MX Financial Research.

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    ASX Company News: Energy Action To Acquire Ward Consulting

    Tuesday, July 31st, 2012

    Energy Action Limited (EAX)  announced that it has entered into a Sale and Purchase Agreement to acquire 100% of leading energy procurement and management business Ward Consulting Services for an estimated $4.15 million. The acquisition will be funded through existing cash and the issue of EAX shares, consisting of an initial cash payment and the issue of EAX shares to the vendor.

    Ward Consulting Services is a long established, highly successful and profitable business, with a focus on sustainability reporting and efficiency solutions. It is a highly complementary addition to Energy Action and in the 12 month period ending 31 December 2011 Ward Consulting Services generated net profit after tax of $638,000. The acquisition is earnings accretive for EAX.

    Established in New South Wales in 1999, Ward Consulting Services is a highly-regarded and recognised firm that provides energy procurement and management services to a broad range of blue-chip clients in the property, food and beverage and finance sectors. Clients include some of Australia’s leading property owners and commercial property firms. The business has a number of long term contracts that generate stable and predictable revenue streams.

    EAX’s Managing Director Valerie Duncan said: “This is a excellent transaction for EAX and is inline with our previously stated goal of acquiring one profitable and complementary business within 12 months of our October 2011 IPO. Ward Consulting Services is a highly profitable business, the brand is well recognised, and it adds considerable value to Energy Action. A real advantage is that Jenny Ward and her team will continue to operate the business on an ongoing basis.

    www.energyaction.com.au

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    ASX Company News: Transfield Services Awarded Two Engineering Contracts

    Tuesday, July 31st, 2012

    Transfield Services (TSE) has been awarded two engineering design and construction contracts in the Pilbara, Western Australia, worth a total of A$100 million.   The contracts, with Rio Tinto and Fortescue Metals Group, integrate the expertise of Transfield Services’ specialist engineering design subsidiary, ICD, with the Company’s construction capability.

    The contracts are a one year, $65 million contract to design and construct Rio Tinto’s Parker Point fuels storage terminal in Dampier. The terminal, which receives fuel via a 1.8 kilometre jetty and distributes the fuel by rail, is part of Rio Tinto’s iron ore operations in the Pilbara.

    A one year $35 million contract to design and construct diesel storage facilities and distribution infrastructure to support the development and operations of the Solomon Mine in the Pilbara. The site is strategically located near railway and road infrastructure 30 minutes from Port Hedland and is critical to  Fortescue’s expansion plans in the region.

    “These contracts deliver on our strategy to provide higher value front end services to the resources and energy industry,” said Managing Director and CEO of Transfield Services, Peter Goode. “They also demonstrate the Company’s engineering and construction capabilities, which form part of our whole of life asset management offering.”

    Operating for more than 40 years, ICD is a leading engineering design services provider to the petrochemical, chemical, biofuel, distillation, power and mining industries. The company was acquired by Transfield Services in 2009.

    It employs more than 27,000 people across 20 industries and 12 countries. It is a global provider of operations, maintenance and construction services to the resources, energy, industrial, infrastructure, property and defence sectors. It delivers asset management services across all phases of the asset lifecycle, from concept and creation, to services that sustain, optimise and enhance our client’s assets.

    www.transfieldservices.com

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    ASX Company News: FKP Sells Mackay Site For $25 million

    Tuesday, July 31st, 2012

    FKP Property Group (FKP ) has entered into a contract to sell a 14 hectare site at its industrial estate ‘Industroplex’ in Mackay Queensland for over $25 million, taking the sales contracts written at Industroplex in the last three months to almost $50 million.

    FKP Managing Director & CEO Peter Brown said: “The sale of the super-lot is testament to ongoing demand for space in Mackay and is reflective of a regional area that is transforming to a major regional industrial centre. “We are seeing businesses take up space at Industroplex based on long term views that Mackay will continue to prosper. “FKP intends to use the proceeds of the sale to fund the Group’s well-established development pipeline,” Mr Brown said. This transaction follows the recent sales of FKP Property Trust assets including a bulky goods site at Browns Plains for $24 million and Peregian Springs Shopping Centre for over $20 million.

    With more than 30 years experience in the Australian property industry, FKP Property Group (FKP) is one of Australia’s leading diversified property and investment companies. FKP successfully operates an integrated business model which includes retirement, property investment and funds management, land development, property development (incorporating residential, retail, industrial and commercial) and construction across Australia and New Zealand. FKP is an ASX top 200 company.

    www.fkp.com.au

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    Share Purchase Plan: Golden Rim Resources

    Monday, July 30th, 2012

    Golden Rim Resources (GMR) announced on the 27/7/2012 that they would be conducting a Share Purchase Plan to raise additional capital. The record date was the 26/7/2012 on which shareholders must own the share to participate in the SPP. The closing date is 22/8/2012. Shares will be issued on 24/8/2012 and begin trading soon after.   A maximum of $15,000 can be purchased by each shareholder at $0.10.

    Discount :  9.1% Liquidity : Poor  Profitability : Poor  Stability : Poor

    www.goldenrim.com.au

    *Note: Discount is based on the closing price on the 27 July 2012

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    ASX Company News: Novogen To Merge With Kai Medical

    Monday, July 30th, 2012

    Novogen (NRT) announced that it has entered into a merger agreement with Kai Medical, a United States based company, incorporated in Delaware, whose business is focused on sleep apnoea therapy devices and wireless respiration monitoring technology. The agreement is subject to a number of conditions including completion of due diligence and shareholder approval. A summary of the key terms of the merger agreement including the conditions precedent is set out in the attachment to this announcement.

    “We are very pleased to be able to enter into a relationship with Kai Medical that provides Novogen shareholders with an opportunity to participate in the growth and success of Kai Medical’s revolutionary sleep apnoea therapy device”, said William D Rueckert, Chairman of the Board for Novogen. He continued, “the sleep apnoea market, Worldwide is a rapidly growing market with tremendous opportunities for companies like Kai that have a product with a distinct performance advantages. There is a clear unmet need for patients with this condition for a convenient and effective therapy.” Bob Nakata, CEO of Kai Medical added, “Kai Medical has recently received its CE Mark for Kai Apnea, which is the key regulatory approval needed for sales in most of the world. Kai Apnea is more comfortable to use and will likely have higher compliance than most other sleep apnoea devices. I believe that this will lead to strong growth in the coming years and am pleased that we can share this progress with Novogen shareholders through this transaction.”

    In addition to the merger agreement with Kai, Novogen announced that in advance of the merger with Kai Medical and subject to shareholder approval, it will undertake a capital reduction and in specie distribution to the Novogen shareholders of the shares of MEI Pharma, Inc., (formerly known as Marshall Edwards, Inc.) that it owns.

    Novogen Limited is an Australian biotechnology company based in Sydney, Australia. Novogen conducts research and development on oncology therapeutics through its subsidiary, MEI Pharma, Inc.  Kai Medical develops and markets medical devices for sleep apnoea therapy and devices to measure and monitor respiration wirelessly, with no contact, and from a distance. Kai Medical is based in Honolulu, Hawaii USA.

    www.novogen.com

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    ASX Company News: Po Valley Energy Awarded Italian Offshore Exploration Licence

    Monday, July 30th, 2012

    Po Valley Energy Limited (PVE), the Northern Italy focused gas and oil exploration and production company, has been awarded a preliminary exploration permit for a new offshore licence – Torre del Moro – by the Italian Ministry for Economic Development. The exploration permit is located in Emilia-Romagna adjacent to Po Valley’s 100% owned Terra del Sole exploration permit, around 55 km south east of Bologna, and covers an area of 111 square kilometers. Po Valley has been invited to submit the necessary environmental impact study that, on acceptance, will lead to the final award of the permit.

    Commenting on the award, Giovanni Catalano, Managing Director of Po Valley said: “This project increases the Company’s exploration targets in an attractive area adjacent to our Terra del Sole permit. It will allow the Company to fully evaluate structures within the two contiguous blocks and will help progress potentially attractive leads to drillable status.”

    The Po Valley region is the main gas production zone in Italy. Po Valley Energy (PVE) is an oil and gas producer and exploration company listed on the Australian Stock Exchange. It has an expanding portfolio of hydrocarbon assets in northern Italy. Po Valley holds 11 license areas, encompassing 2,000 square kilometres and owns and operates two gas treatment plants, Silllaro and Castello which provide the Company with steady cash flow.

    www.povalley.com

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    ASX Company News: pSivida Eye Disease Treatment Approved In Germany

    Monday, July 30th, 2012

    pSivida Corp. (PVA), a leader in developing sustained release, drug delivery products for treatment of back-of-the-eye diseases,  announced the Federal Ministry of Health of Germany (Bundesministerium fur Gesundheit, BfArM) has granted marketing authorization to ILUVIEN® for the treatment of vision impairment associated with chronic diabetic macular edema (DME) considered insufficiently responsive to available therapies. This marketing authorization follows the completion of the Decentralized Regulatory Procedure (DCP) in the European Union (EU), in which the Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) in the United Kingdom, serving as the Reference Member State (RMS), delivered a positive outcome for ILUVIEN along with six Concerned Members States (CMS), specifically Austria, France, Germany, Italy, Portugal and Spain. The German authorization is the fifth national approval in the EU, preceded by Austria, Portugal, the U.K. and France.

    “We are very pleased ILUVIEN has received marketing authorization in Germany. Our product now has marketing authorization in five of the seven targeted EU countries,” said Dr. Paul Ashton, president and chief executive officer of pSivida. “We look forward to ILUVIEN’s commercial launch in these countries and to it receiving approval in the two remaining CMS countries, Italy and Spain, in the coming months.”

    pSivida Corp., headquartered in Watertown, MA, develops tiny, sustained release, drug delivery products designed to deliver drugs at a controlled and steady rate for months or years. pSivida is currently focused on treatment of chronic diseases of the back of the eye utilizing its core technology systems, DurasertTM and BioSiliconTM. ILUVIEN® for the treatment of Diabetic Macular Edema (DME), which is licensed to Alimera Sciences, Inc., is pSivida’s most advanced product candidate. It has received marketing authorization for chronic DME considered insufficiently responsive to available therapies in the U.K., Austria, France, Germany and Portugal following a positive review by Austria, France, German, Italy, Portugal, Spain and the U.K. under the Decentralized Procedure. Marketing authorization in the remaining countries is anticipated in the coming months.

    www.psivida.com

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    Stock Market Analysis: European Markets Push Higher For Eighth Week

    Monday, July 30th, 2012
    *  US stock markets surged to end the week at 2-month highs.
    *  European stock markets jumped higher again in “Risk-On” trading in reaction to ECB comments about commitments to easing.
    *  Asian stock markets finished week on positive note, as investors preempted further easing from the eurozone and the US.
    *  Commodities prices generally higher, Gold prices are trading around $US1,618 while crude-oil closed up around $US90.

    The SPI Futures is trading above the key support level of 4180, ended up 1.1% (or 47 points) at 422. The key levels for our index this week are 4180 to 4280.  Trading will be driven by overseas sentiment in a busy week for economic data.

    See below for ASX listed companies in the news today.

    US Markets

    US stock markets surged to end the week at 2-month highs. Stocks rose for the week, giving the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index the longest rally since March and all 30 Dow Jones component stocks finished in the green as that index is up 3-weeks for its best winning streak since January.

    For the week the Dow Jones closed up 1.9%, the S&P 500 index up 1.7% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq ended up 1.1% at 2,893 and the smaller cap Russell 2000 was up 0.6%.

    Traders pushed stocks higher after commitments from European policy makers that they will act to ease the eurozone’s debt crisis and better-than-expected corporate earnings from Caterpillar (up 6.4%) to Moody’s Corp (jumping 13%).

    The financials and industrial sectors in the S&P 500 climbed over 2.5%.  Tech stocks tempered the gains with Apple and United Parcel Service falling over -3% due to disappointing earnings reports, but Facebook shares were smashed losing -18% after reporting its first results since its initial public offering.

    Recent economic reports have showed the US economy expanded at a slower pace in the second quarter as a softening job market prompted Americans to curb spending. Consumer confidence in July dropped to the lowest this year, new home sales unexpectedly fell from a two-year high while orders for equipment slumped.

    It is a busy week for economic data this week, including the FOMC Fed meeting and culminating with the Non-Farms Payrolls report on Friday.

    All ten company groups that make up the S&P index traded higher, with Materials up 1.8%, Energy sector up 1.8%, Financials sector up 1.9%,  Industrials sector was up  2.2%, Health Care up 0.%, Technology was up 2.2%,  while Consumer Staples were up 2.0%.

    The Dow Jones closed up 1.5% (or 188 points) at 13,075, the S&P 500 index up 1.9% (or 26 points) at 1,386, the Nasdaq ended up 1.4% (or 39 points) at 2,893 and the smaller cap Russell 2000 was up 1.5%.

    European Markets

    European stock markets jumped higher again in “Risk-On” trading in reaction to ECB comments about easing.

    Share prices had slumped in the first three days of last week, due to concerns over more of Spanish  regions seeking aid and as the Moody’s Investors Service lowered outlooks for Germany, the Netherlands and Luxembourg. However investor sentiment turned around after comments from the ECB as they reaffirmed their commitment to do “whatever it takes” in supporting the eurozone financial system. German Chancellor Angela Merkel, French President Francois Hollande and Draghi pledged to do everything to protect the euro.

    European markets have finished higher for an eighth straight week, and for the week in London the FTSE 100 index closed down -0.4%, the German DAX was closed up 0.9% , while in France the CAC closed up 2.7%.

    The is a plethora or economic news due to this week, including the ECB meeting.

    On Friday in London the FTSE 100 index closed up 1.0% (or 54 points)  at  5,627, the German DAX was closed up 1.6% (or 106 points) at 6,689, while in France the CAC closed up 2.3% (or 73 points) at 3,280.

    Asian Markets

    Asian stocks fell for a second week, despite sparking up late in the week.

    Traders had sold stocks early in the week on concerns that Greece may not meet bailout targets and after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said the Chinese economy faces significant downside risks.

    Stocks across the region pared the losses late in the week on anticipation of coordinated easing efforts by central banks globally, but the MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped -0.6 for the week. Stocks advanced after European Central Bank (ECB) President Mario Draghi said policy makers will do whatever is needed to preserve the euro and were prepared to intervene in bond markets as yields surged in Spain and Italy.

    For the week in China the SSE Composite closed down -1.8%, while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index closed  down -1.9%,  and in Japan the Nikkei 225 Index  was down – 1.2%.  Europe will be the focus again this week.  Europe will be the focus again this week.

    In China the SSE Composite closed down -0.5% (or -10 points) at 2,126, while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index closed  up 2.0% (or 382 points) at 19,274,  and in Japan the Nikkei 225 Index  was up 1.5% (or 123 points) at 8,566.

    Commodities

    The Dollar Index was higher at 83.59 on a lower Euro, while the Australian Dollar last traded lower at 1.037. Commodities prices traded higher.

    For the session the Benchmark crude NYMEX for August delivery was up 1.8% settled at $US90.13.  Copper prices are looking for key support level as Copper for August delivery was up 0.9% at $US3.426, while August Gold was up 0.2% (or $US2.90) at $US1,618.00.

    ASX News Today

    ALZ – Australand is confident of delivering earnings growth in 2012 after reversing its profit slide amid tough times in the property development market.

    APN – APN News & Media says it does not know of any unannounced information that would explain its recent share price fall.

    BTA – Biota Holdings the drug maker has posted a 17 percent rise in global sales of its key flu drug Relenza in the fourth quarter.

    CTX – Caltex Australia says it will close its Kurnell refinery in Sydney in the second half of 2014 as part of a supply chain restructure.

    DLS – Drillsearch Energy has announced a $40 million capital raising to drive development of its oil and gas projects.

    ERA – Energy Resources of Australia (ERA) says the uranium market remains challenging after it recorded a net first half loss of $59.86 million.

    HDF – Independent directors of Hastings Diversified Utilities Fund’s (HDF) responsible entity are to hold talks with APA Group about its sweetened $1.34 billion takeover offer.

    MST – Metal Storm the defence technology company has been placed in voluntary administration.

    NCM – Newcrest Mining has exceeded its copper production targets for its 2012 financial year, while gold production is in line with forecasts.

    NUF – Nufarm the Agribusiness, expects to generate a higher underlying profit in the current financial year as its businesses in Australia and Brazil perform solidly.

    OSH – Oil Search the Australian company, has suspended loading operations
    in Papua New Guinea after an oil spill that the company described as minor.

    QAN – Qantas Airways the national carrier has confirmed it is in talks with a number of airlines about potential alliances, including Dubai-based Emirates.

    ROC – Roc Oil remains on track to achieve its forecast of between 6,000 and 7,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day by the end of the year, despite a 14 percent drop in the June quarter.

    WES – Wesfarmers says its Coles supermarket full year sales had leapt 6.1 percent to $33.698 billion.

    Market Summary

    ASX – to open higher
    US & UK/Europe – sharply  higher

    Commodities Stock Index   up 1.8%
    Gold Stocks Index   up  1.3%
    Oil Stocks Index  up 1.8%

    US ADRs – Broadly higher!!…

    BHP up 3.3%, RIO up 4.5%; AWC up 4.3%
    ANZ up 3.0% & NAB up 2.7%
    NEM down -3.3%, JHX up 2.4%, NWS  up 3.2%

    By Michael Hevern
    Head of Research 

    For Buy and Sell recommendations on ASX listed companies register for a FREE trial of  FREE trial of D2MX Financial Research.

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    Weekly Market Wrap: Traders Celebrate ECB Reassurances

    Friday, July 27th, 2012

    Last week we talked about traders seeing green, as they anticipated a coordinated monetary easing effort across the globe. However traders were starting to turn a little green themselves by mid-week, as stock markets across the world sold down and the coordinated global central bank easing failed to materialise.

    The selling was persistent in the European markets, as the eurozone debt crisis was worsening with the cost of borrowing for Italy and Spain reaching unsustainable levels (over 7% for 2- and 10-year debt). It also looked increasingly likely that Greece would be unable to meet the austerity restrictions needed to qualify for its bailout, and Spain looked set to be the next in line to need a bailout. The Spanish stock market regulator, the CNMV, announced a ban on all short selling for the next three months, citing the “extreme volatility” that equities are now experiencing, while in Italy the regulator announced a short-selling ban for the next week on some banking and insurance shares.

    In the US markets have traded sideways this week, as the corporate earnings results have been mixed. Asian markets were subdued, and by mid-week the Japanese market had reached 7-week lows, Hong Kong reached 5-week lows and China 4-year lows.

    Now for some good news: investor sentiment performed an about-face overnight and traders across the globe started buying, after the ECB President Draghi pledged to do “whatever it takes” to preserve the EU economic zone. Stocks surged across the board, led by financials, but the telecommunications, consumer, mining and energy sectors powered higher, as traders sought “risk-on”.

    US stock markets surged on the ECB comments, recovering overnight to near 2-month highs, after spending most of the week down around their 200-day moving averages. The earnings season continues, and of the 263 S&P 500 companies that have reported 72% have topped analysts’ estimates on the earnings side, but only 43% have beaten on revenue, which is disappointing.

    European markets managed to rebound overnight, with the French market surging over 4%, while the German market has bounced 3.5% from its weekly lows. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index jumped 2.5% for its biggest gain since the end of June. The gauge had dropped -4.4% in the previous four sessions, with traders hitting the sell button as Spain and Italy have to pay unsustainable rates for their debt borrowings. The ECB reassurances saw Spanish 10 year bond yields fall below 7%, while Spanish 2-year yields fell the most this month after ECB President Draghi said that addressing high yields on sovereign debt was within the central bank’s mandate. The ECB was responding to calls by Spanish policy makers asking the central bank to fight a renewed round of financial turmoil that pushed the country’s bond yields to euro-area records this week. Italian bond yields also subsided.

    Asian markets are rebounding today, but the Chinese market remains at 4-years lows. Chinese officials said that government easing will be sidelined near-term while they watch the outcomes of recent interest rates cuts and as bank lending is starting to improve. The estimates forecast for GDP growth next quarter are mixed, ranging from 7.4% to 7.6%, which is around the government benchmark of 7.5%.

    In commodities crude-oil prices eased to above $US89 this past week, as US inventories picked up again with tensions in the middle east seen as easing. The gold price has bounced in the past couple of sessions, after the ECB’s reassurances and as QE3 looms again. Gold is again trading above $US1,600. Copper prices have also moved higher, bouncing off their 200-day moving average.

    The Australian market is in the process of forming a second higher low (as seen on today’s chart) and is set to test 2-month highs again. If the global central banks do act, this would be a catalyst for our market to push higher, and will give a badly needed boost to our mining and energy stocks. The 4200 level is the next pivotal resistance level and 4120 is the critical support level for next week.

    In our market the defensive sectors continue to outperform, with banks, Telstra, Real Estate REITs and health-care stocks trading higher, as investors seek out stocks that can deliver consistent yield in this low rate environment, and as we move into the dividend season in August. The industrials, materials and energy sectors are bouncing off key short-term support levels, and we appear to be seeing short covering near-term. The banks have surged and are testing 3-month highs, as investors turn to dividend yield. However we are seeing some buying in the energy and materials sectors as investors seek “risk-on”, but we need to see follow-through next week to continue the upward momentum for the market.

    Investors should have protection in place for their capital, and could look to reduce their risk by using options and warrants strategies. Look to pick up value stocks that pay consistently high dividend yields, when they reach your buy levels. Last week we said “it may be time to start to nibble away at materials and energy stocks”, which proved fortuitous as they held on to recent support levels.

    Remain attuned to news from overseas, particularly from the eurozone, China and the US, as the US reporting season continues. Also monitor the performance of Italian and Spanish borrowing costs, China and the US dollar for a guide to the future direction of commodities and equities prices.

    The S&P/ASX 200 index is currently trading at 4182 and is trying to close the week around the 2-month trading range. Key levels for the index next week will be 4120 and 4280, with 4200 the key short term pivot level.

    By Michael Hevern
    D2MX Trading Desk

    For Buy and Sell recommendations on ASX listed companies register for a free trial of MDS Financial Research.

    This report was prepared by Michael Hevern. It represents the views and opinions of the author. It is not intended for use by any third party, without the approval of Michael Hevern. While this report is based on information from sources which are considered reliable, its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed reflect my judgment at this date and are subject to change. Contracting Hevern Pty Ltd is a Corporate Authorised Representative No. 408868 of D2MX Pty Limited ABN 98 113 959 596, AFSL No. 297950 (D2MX), and Michael Hevern has been appointed as an Authorised Representative of Contracting Hevern Pty Ltd. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this report are not given or endorsed by D2MX, unless otherwise indicated. The information contained in this Report is General Advice only, as the information or advice given does not take into account your particular objectives, financial situation or needs.
    Disclaimer: Using leverage to invest can be a two edged sword, as it can magnify your returns when the stock price rises, but will in turn magnify the losses if the trade does not perform as expected.

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