Stock Market Analysis: Markets Recover But Caution Prevails

June 13th, 2012

*  US stock markets rose steadily overnight to erase the losses from the previous session, as traders took their cues from the eurozone.
*  European stock markets traded sideways but managed to tick up into the close.
*  Asian stock markets generally eased yesterday, giving back some of the sharp gains of the previous session.
*  Commodities prices higher, Gold prices are trading around $US1,613 while crude-oil closed up around $US83.

The Australian market is expected to rise today, as traders take their lead from overseas, but caution will prevail ahead of the Greek elections next week.  Markets traded higher in the European and the US markets.  The Australian dollar traded around parity overnight.

The SPI Futures is trading around the key pivot level of 4080, ended up 0.4% (or 17 points) at 4,101. The key levels for our index today are 4080 to 4180.

See below for ASX listed companies in the news today.

Economics News Today

*  Jun     Westpac – Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment  Survey.

U.S. Markets 

US stock markets rose steadily overnight to erase the losses from the previous session,as traders took their cues from the eurozone. 

The three major indexes all finished 1.2% higher on hopes the central banks will move towards further easing in addressing the eurozone debt crisis. The gains were broad-based with all 10 S&P sectors finishing in the green, led by the materials, financials and industrials sectors as investors looked to pick up stocks that have been sold-down recently. 

Trader sentiment was boosted  after the European Central Bank (ECB) reiterated that the eurozone needs to create a banking union. Also remarks from the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President helped as he confirmed his support for additional monetary stimulus from the central bank. 

In economic news, the National Federation of Independent Business’s index of optimism among small businesses eased in May, while the Labor Department reported import prices for May posted their biggest monthly drop in almost two years.

All ten company groups that make up the S&P index traded higher, with Materials up 1.9%, Energy sector was up 1.4%, Financials sector up 1.5%,  Industrials sector was up 1.6%, Technology was up 1.0%,  while Consumer Staples were up 1.1%.

The Dow Jones closed up 1.3% (or 162 points) at 12,573, the S&P 500 index  up 1.2% (or 15 points) at 1,324, the Nasdaq ended up 1.2% (or 33 points) at 2,843 and the smaller cap Russell 2000 was up 1.4%.

European Markets

European stock markets traded sideways but managed to tick up into the close. The benchmark Stoxx 600 index ticked up 0.6%. 

Trading was choppy overnight as investors searched for clarity over whether the $US125 billion bailout for Spanish banks agreed over the weekend, will be enough to end the sovereign-debt crisis, as cost of debt funding remains high. Yields on Spanish 10-year bonds hit 6.86 percent, the highest level in the euro era, highlighting the stress in the Spanish debt markets even after the bailout deal was agreed. 

Fitch Ratings downgraded another two Spanish banks in a move that is linked to its earlier downgrade of Spain’s credit rating. Fitch cut another 18 Spanish banks long-term credit ratings on Tuesday.  Also weighing on trader’s minds is the upcoming elections in Greece on 17 June, as the outcome may well determine the country’s future in 17-nation, eurozone bloc.

The PIIGS markets are stilll under pressure with the Italian market closing down -0.7%, as Italian banks were the biggest underperformers in the eurozone as investors fret over their capital backing, and the Greek market fell -1.4%

In London the FTSE 100 index closed up 0.9% (or 41 points)  at  5,474, the German DAX was closed  up 0.3% (or 20 points) at 6,161, while in France the CAC was closed  up 0.1% (or 4 points) at 3,047, Spain closed up 0.1% and Italy closed  down -0.7%.

Asian Markets

Asian stock markets generally eased yesterday, giving back some of the sharp gains of the previous session.  Initial optimism gave way to skepticism over the Spanish bank bailout and there is also caution ahead of the Greek elections. 

Across the region there was selling in stocks exposed to the eurozone.  In China the market closed down -0.7%, but is still 4% higher for the year.   The market is searching for support as the government is committed to increasing spending on infrastructure projects and cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the first time since 2008.  Energy stocks weighed due to the subdued crude-oil prices. 

In China the SSE Composite closed down -0.7% (or -16 points) at 2,289, while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index closed down -0.4% (or -81 points) at 18,872 and in Japan the Nikkei 225 Index  was down -1.2% (or -88 points) at 8,537, South Korean KOSPI closed down -0.7% for the session, while the Indian market closed up 1.2%.

Commodities

The Dollar Index was higher at 82.41 on a lower Euro, while the Australian Dollar last traded lower at 99.54. Commodities prices traded higher.

For the session the Benchmark crude NYMEX for June delivery was up 0.8% settled at $US83.32.  Copper prices are looking for key support level as Copper for July delivery was up 0.1% (or 0.2 cents) at $US3.3450, while July Gold was up 1.1% (or $US17.00) at $US1,613.

ASX News Today

ABP – Abacus Property Group has sold its Epping Office Park in Sydney’s northern suburbs to Transport NSW for $48.5 million.

ALS – Alesco has rejected a $188 million takeover offer from paint maker DuluxGroup.

ANZ – ANZ Bank has cut its variable interest rates after the Reserve Bank of Australia’s 25 basis point cut.

BHP – strike action continues in another central Queensland coal mine will be halted by a week-long series of strikes from Monday.

BSL – BlueScope Steel says it has no plans to raise extra funds as its debt reduction program is on track.

EGP – Echo Entertainment Group the casino operator plans to raise money via the issue of new shares.
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GDO – Gold One International has sacked more than 1,035 employees at Modder East in South Africa due to a week-long strike.

FXJ – Fairfax Media says revenue is set to drop by $93.6 million in the second half of the financial year as trading conditions remain difficult.
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OST – OneSteel says it has refinanced a $295 million syndicated loan which was due to mature in August 2013.

QAN – Qantas shares rose back above the $1.00 mark as the company takes measure to protect itself from any hostile takeover, after the airline’s shock recent profit warning, due to the deterioration in the performance of its international business.  Qantas still has $1.45/share in cash.
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WPL – The West Australian government has dismissed reports claiming a new native title deal has been struck for Woodside’s Browse gas hub project in the Kimberley region.

Corporate News

Reporting today:  
 
Legend International (LGD)    Full year 2011 AGM
Ex-dividend Date

Kingsrose Mining Ltd (KRM)

Market Summary 

ASX – to open higher
US & UK/Europe – higher

Commodities Stock Index up 1.6%
Gold Stocks Index up 2.6%
Oil Stocks Index  up 2.1%

US ADRs – Broadly higher!!…

BHP  up 2.8%, RIO up 2.9%; AWC up 3.0%
ANZ up 2.5% & NAB  up 1.5%
NEM up 2.1%, JHX up 0.1%, NWS  up 2.5%

By Michael Hevern
Head of Research
 

For Buy and Sell recommendations on ASX listed companies register for a FREE trial of MDS Financial Research.


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