You are currently browsing the Online Stockmarket Trading Update blog archives for March, 2012.
Market Analyser 7 provides a feature-rich and easy-to-use watchlist tool for getting quotes, finding market movers, and generating lists of securities to keep an eye on.
In this webinar we looked at how to create your own watchlists and utilise the system-generated lists, as well as customising the watchlist screen to display the information most relevant to your trading.
For more webinars view the full program here.
A trading diary is a place to record your trades, your thoughts and your results. A well structured trading diary is essential to your development as a trader. The diary allows you to first of all identify areas for improvement, then set goals to improve and review your progress. If your trading diary is blank, then there will not be much to learn. And if it is full of swear words and put downs, you will not enjoy reading it. This is an essential tool for your development and learning. The most important trading book you will ever read is your own trading diary.
Start your trading diary before you start to trade. When you are new to the markets it is a good idea to study a range of markets, time frames and trading techniques to find one that you would like to trade. This may be intraday trading, end of day trading or even longer term; it could be commodities, indices or shares. There is no right answer as there is no perfect trading strategy. It is essential to find what works for you.
A trading diary may initially only include market observations, what happens when a set of circumstances arise. By observing what happens if the market is down heavily or what happens at a change in trend you can learn to identify trading opportunities as these unfold in the future. This is an essential part of the learning process before you start trading and can be used to develop your analysis skills. From historical research you can identify opportunities that may exist, and following these in real time allows you to build the recognition and the confidence to trade them.
To be an effective learning tool a trading diary must include the following components to create a positive feedback loop. Start with your objectives and the opportunities that exist in the market for today. Next record the trades that you complete, taking into consideration market conditions, your own feelings and the outcome of the trades, and then review your trades at the end of the day or week, and rate your performance. This review is where you can identify areas which you still have to work on.
Set yourself a goal that will make today successful regardless of how much you make. Trading successfully is not about making money every day – it comes from gradual improvement over time.
During the day record the activity that you undertake. This includes what is happening in the market, how you act on that and the outcome of the action. By recording any emotions here you can also get a handle on what emotions are affecting your trading. Monitoring your levels of confidence and anxiety is one way to monitor your level of fear and greed.
Review your performance at the end of the day to identify how well you did. It is possible to make a lot of money when you trade badly, but if you continue to trade badly you are very likely to give the money back. Note areas of weakness in your trading to work on in the future.
Without objectives, you do not know if you are achieving your goals or not. The goal to make as much money as possible is not a useful goal to set. Make goals concrete and measurable. Process-oriented goals work much better when trading than financial objectives.
The goal “I want to make $500 per day” is a goal over which you have no control. The market you are trading today may not provide the opportunities, yet on another day you may make $2,000. Never attempt to control the market or make it conform to your ideals, instead focus on what you can control.
As an example you could set a goal to take entry signals within 2 points of your signal. It could be to place a stop order every time you enter a trade or to limit your trading size to ensure you risk $100. These goals are now within your control and you can have a successful day in the market, even if you do not make money.
It takes time and repetition to internalise a new habit, so make sure you repeat the goal on a regular basis. An athlete will work on developing strength for a period of time and then speed, then endurance as another part of their training program. A trader will work on analysis for a period of time, then correctly sizing positions, then taking profits until the trader develops all the core skills required to trade successfully.
Keeping track of your trades is important, but more than that it is important to record other information that helps you to improve your trades. Buy at $10.56 and sell at $11.24 tells you very little about what was happening when you entered the trade. What was going on in the market? Which setup was in place for you to take the trade? How were you feeling when you entered the trade? Once you are in the position, did the market conditions continue to support the trade? What signs made you decide to hold and which exit did you use to get out? If you build up a record like this it is much easier to identify patterns that may occur when you are trading. You can then eliminate behaviours that are affecting your trading.
You will start to understand the impact of emotions on your trading, after you have traded for a while. It is important not to get involved in the market, but remain detached and observe how the market is moving. In this way you can act on what you can see, not react emotionally. By recording your emotions in your trading diary you can increase the speed at which you identify problem areas.
Reviewing your trading diary will help you identify areas where you can improve your trading. If your win % is low, then look to improve your analysis and entry techniques and if your risk reward is small then take a look at your stops and profit taking exits. In addition to this a strong risk reward provides you with an opportunity to improve your scaling in to maximise your returns from the good trades when they come along.
With your daily review, study your losing trades in particular. You are more likely to learn from these and you can aim to eliminate them, through better analysis, or minimise them through better risk management.
Like any successful person the drive to continually improve, to be a little better each day, makes the difference between a good trader and a great trader.
Regardless of whether you win or lose, every trade you make is a step forward in your trading journey. By pursuing process oriented goals you control your development. Incorporating these goals into a feedback loop that allows you to assess how well you met your objectives each day will put you on the path to improving your trading with every trade that you make.
By Jeff Cartridge
Education Manager
Markets across the world have delivered a stellar performance for the past quarter, particularly in the US where markets are set to record their best first quarter since 1998. However Eurozone markets have given back some of their recent gains this week and are testing key support levels, while there have been two stand outs in Asia, with Japan surging higher and while China plunged through support.
US stock markets have held on to recent gains, with any sell-offs being met with buying as the markets drifted higher into the end-of-quarter. US traders continue to focus on their domestic conditions.
Commodity prices pulled back after the manufacturing report confirmed slowing growth. The week started with news that US consumers remained confident about the economy and labour markets in March, with the Conference Board reporting the consumer confidence index fell to 70.2 in March (down from 71.6 in February). However manufacturing is starting to show signs of slowing, with the manufacturing general-business index falling to 7 in March (down from 20 in February). The measure records manufacturing activity in the central Atlantic region and although it fell it remained in expansion territory for a fourth straight month. Manufacturing activity in the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s district slowed this month, in part because of a drag from higher gasoline prices.
There is no doubt we are seeing “window-dressing” as the US markets are set up for their best first quarter performance since 1998, with the S&P500 up around 11%, and trading volumes are above average which is a good sign.
European stock markets have seen choppy trading this week and are potentially rolling over, with a number of markets testing key support levels around their 50 or 200 day moving averages. Early in the week sentiment was supported by news out of Germany, which reported the Ifo business-climate index rose to 109.8 in March, beating analyst expectations. Comments from the US Federal Reserve about its continued accommodative stance also helped.
However bond yields in Italy and Spain jumped this week, resulting in their markets underperforming. Spain faces a general strike against government austerity measures a day ahead of the government’s 2012 budget, while Italy is facing higher costs of funding.
The eurozone continues its two speed recovery, with northern Europe (Germany and France) bubbling along, and the southern countries struggling under the weight of severe government austerity measures. Growth-sensitive stocks have weighed on the markets, as economic growth concerns resurfaced and as traders chose “risk-off”. Energy stocks have been under pressure after a French official said France is considering releasing oil from its strategic reserves.
Asian stock markets have suffered this week, particularly in China. We have been highlighting that the Chinese market had formed a double top, and this week it plunged through key support levels as traders were disappointed that there are no signs of further easing by the Chinese central bank. Data released by the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics showed the nation’s largest industrial groups saw their net income drop -5.2% in the first two months of the year from the year-earlier period.
Japan has been surprisingly strong, surging towards its biggest gain in five months and its best close in over a year. Miners and energy stocks have weighed on sentiment as commodity prices eased again.
Commodity prices have been under pressure this week on the back of a rising US dollar. Crude-oil prices broke the $US104 support level and gold prices are trying to find support around $US1,660 again. Copper has again been unable to trade above $US4.00 and is now sitting on its 200 moving average support.
In Australia, financials and mining stocks have been in focus this week, with the financials doing all the heavy lifting, supporting the market’s move above 4300. However the miners have been under selling pressure due to lower commodity prices and the weak performance in China. Seasonally the financials tend to outperform in the next four to six weeks as they trade into their dividend and reporting seasons.
The Aussie market has finally pushed through its 200 day moving average for the first time since last May, and the index is now set to try establishing support above this 4300 level. On the S&P/ASX 200 the 4250 level is now the crucial support level and 4320 becomes the key level on the upside. Stocks are benefiting from the push higher into the end-of-quarter and this should prevail into next week, as fund managers do their rebalancing of portfolios. We will need the materials sector to participate in this rally if we are to get a sustained move higher.
A number of the S&P/ASX sectors are performing strongly above their 150 day moving averages (MAs), having found support last week. These include Financials, Consumer Discretionary, Healthcare, Technology and Utilities. The Real Estate and Energy sectors are looking to find support above their 150 day moving averages (MAs), while the Telecoms and Consumer Staples sectors have turned around off support and the Materials sector looks to be finding support at current levels.
Traders should be looking to protect their profits in this market and reduce their risk by using options strategies. The D2MX Financial Advisory Services team can help with these trades. Call me on 1300 610 024 for further information. Investors should also be looking to utilise options strategies to protect their positions and profits, as options are a relatively cheap form of insurance, and you can also leverage yourself for breakout trades as they occur.
Remain attuned to the news from overseas, particularly from the eurozone and China in relation to easing policies, and the US as their markets hold above multi-year highs. Monitor the performance of China and the US dollar for a guide to the future direction of commodities and equities prices.
The S&P/ASX 200 index is currently trading at 4356 and is holding above the key 200 day moving average. Key levels for the index next week will be 4250 and 4400, with 4300 the key short term pivot level.
By Michael Hevern
MDS Trading Desk
For Buy and Sell recommendations on ASX listed companies register for a free trial of MDS Financial Research.
This report was prepared by Michael Hevern. It represents the views and opinions of the author. It is not intended for use by any third party, without the approval of Michael Hevern. While this report is based on information from sources which are considered reliable, its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Any opinions expressed reflect my judgment at this date and are subject to change. Contracting Hevern Pty Ltd is a Corporate Authorised Representative No. 408868 of MDS Financial Services Pty Limited ABN 28 088 190 283 AFSL No. 333298 (MDS), and Michael Hevern has been appointed as an Authorised Representative of Contracting Hevern Pty Ltd. Opinions, conclusions and other information expressed in this report are not given or endorsed by MDS Financial Services Pty Ltd, unless otherwise indicated. The information contained in this Report is General Advice only, as the information or advice given does not take into account your particular objectives, financial situation or needs.
Unholy Grails – A New Road to Wealth
Author: Nick Radge
Publisher: Radge Publishing
RRP $39.95
Review by Janene Murdoch, Educated Investor Bookshop
This fabulous new book written by one of Australia’s leading experts on trend-following strategies, gives the reader a blueprint to a sound, practical, and profitable trading strategy.
Nick has been working on developing and refining a system, which looks at the philosophy behind momentum trading. In this book, Nick reveals a little-known investment concept, often shunned by the larger investment houses, however ultimately benefitting the retail investor. After six years of indicative real time performance results this concept has stood the test of time. Risk, and the management of it, is a key factor in the book so along the way Nick reveals essential tips and tricks, designed to protect capital during bear markets.
The book also includes eight fully disclosed investment plans, thoroughly tested, and designed to give the reader the strategies to create a positive investment expectancy. It also includes interviews with investors who use momentum strategies successfully, and this gives the book a very real, intimate feel.
This is a very easy to read book – some might say simple. It is a common belief that investing needs to be complicated, but Nick’s book dispels this belief. Unholy Grails is a must read for anyone who already runs their own self managed super fund, or for investors looking to take control of their investments.
Trader Dealer Blog readers can get this book for 15% off at the Educated Investor Bookshop!
The SPI Futures is trading above the key pivot level of 4250, ended flat (or -2 points) at 4,338. The key levels for our index today are 4280 to 4350.
See below for ASX listed companies in the news today.
Economics News Today
* Financial Aggregates, incl Private Sector Credit
* International Reserves & Foreign Currency Liquidity
U.S. Markets
US stock markets revocered late in the session to end flat for the day.
Traders started buying late in the session, erasing the loses triggered by worse-than-expected economic growth and job-market data. There may be some “window-dressing” as the US markets are set up for their best Q1 performance since 1998. In the broader utilities and healthcare sectors provided support as the financials and telecomms sectors weighed on sentiment.
In economic activity the weekly job data eased as the number of US workers filing new applications for unemployment benefits was higher than expected, though it fell the level remains at its lowest level since April 2008. Also Manufacturing activity in the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s district slowed this month, in part because of a drag from higher gasoline prices. Commodity prices pulled-back after the manufacturing report confirmed slowing growth.
All ten company groups that make up the S&P index traded mixed, with the Materials up 0.1% , Energy sector was down -1.3%, Financials sector up 0.3%, Industrials sector was down -0.9%, Technology was down -0.4%, while Consumer Staples were down -0.9%.
The Dow Jones closed up 0.2% (or 19 points) at 13,126, the S&P 500 index down -0.1% (or -2 points) at 1,403, the Nasdaq ended down -0.3% (or -10 points) at 3,095 and the smaller cap Russell 2000 was down -0.3%.
European Markets
Commodities
The Dollar Index was flat at 79.11 on a lower Euro, while the Australian Dollar last traded lower at 1.0383. Commodities prices traded mixed.
For the session the Benchmark crude NYMEX for April delivery was down -2.0% (or -$US2.12) settle at $US103.30. Copper prices are bumping against a key resistance level as Copper for March delivery was up 0.5% (or 2 cents) at $US3.7949. April gold was up 0.1% (or $US2.40) at $US1,660.
BANKs – are seeing lower funding costs, easing pressures on margins and profits going forwrd.
BOT – Beach Energy oil and gas producer says it has successfully secured $267 million in the first stage of a $345 million capital raising and trades Ex-rights today.
EXT – Extract says a subsidiary of Chinese state-owned Guandong Nuclear Power Group is cleaning up its interest in uranium explorer Extract Resources that it does not already own.
LEI – Leighton shares have plunged after the construction company cut its full year profit forecast because of additional losses from its Brisbane Airport Link and Victorian desalination plant works.
RIO – Rio Tinto says it may sell its specialty alumina business after receiving an offer from private investment firm HIG.
TCL – Transurban the toll road operator is experiencing a difficult operating environment but still expects to meet its previous guidance on what it will pay securityholders over the course of the financial year.
TLS – NBN Co Ltd boss Mike Quigley says the launch of the 3-year rollout schedule for the high speed national broadband network (NBN) is pivotial for the federal government telecommunications project.
WES – Bunnings the hardware giant says its $1.5 billion expansion plan will create 6000 jobs in the next three years.
Market Summary
ASX – to open lower
US & UK/Europe – lower
Commodities Stock Index down -0.1%
Gold Stocks Index up 0.3%
Oil Stocks Index down -0.1%
US ADRs – Broadly Lower!!…
By Michael Hevern
Archer Exploration (AXE) announced on the 29/3/2012 that they would be conducting a Share Purchase Plan to raise additional capital. The record date was the 28/3/2012 on which shareholders must own the share to participate in the SPP. The closing date is 7/5/2012. Shares will be issued on 16/5/2012. A maximum of $15,000 can be purchased by each shareholder at $0.30.
Discount : 10.0% Liquidity : Poor Profitability : Poor Stability : Poor
| www.archerexploration.com.au |
*Note: Discount is based on the closing price on the 29 March 2012
SomnoMed (SOM) is pleased to announce that Zephyr Sleep Technologies Inc. (Zephyr) have been granted 510(k) clearance from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to begin selling the MATRx medical device system.
The MATRx system will be used in sleep laboratories to identify patients that will be successful with oral appliance therapy, while establishing the protrusive position of the lower mandible for effective therapy. “The MATRx system changes the way oral appliance therapy is prescribed, bringing the knowledge and expertise of both Sleep Physicians and Dentists into the therapy decision much earlier. This new technology will certainly change how things are done,” said Paul Cataford, Zephyr’s President and CEO.
A MATRx study is performed in a sleep laboratory by a sleep technician in conjunction with a polysomnographic study (“PSG test”). Using this new technology Sleep Physicians will, for the first time, be able to reliably predict the effectiveness of oral appliance therapy as a treatment for obstructive sleep apnea patients. This clears the way for Sleep Physicians to confidently prescribe oral appliance therapy in advance of patients being fitted with an oral appliance.
“This is very exciting news for the sleep medical community. Finally with SomnoMed MATRx it is possible to diagnose and predict treatment response with the SomnoDent ® therapy and is an important milestone of particular importance for non-compliant CPAP patients. Since the premarket launch in Minneapolis last year and in several international congresses in Japan, Australia and Germany the number of enquiries never stopped. With MATRx we are expecting the number of referrals for a SomnoDent ® therapy to increase significantly over time.” said Ralf Barschow, CEO SomnoMed.
Pharmaceutical company Pharmaxis (PXS) announced it has finalised a logistics and distribution services agreement for the supply of Bronchitol across Europe. In anticipation of a second quarter commercial launch of Bronchitol for cystic fibrosis in Europe, Pharmaxis has signed a three year agreement with Arvato Healthcare, a member of the Bertelsmann AG group of companies.
Pharmaxis Chief Executive Officer Dr Alan Robertson said, “This agreement completes the infrastructure required to make Bronchitol available throughout Europe. Arvato provides Pharmaxis with a state‐of‐the‐art healthcare distribution facility centralised in Germany from which Bronchitol is shipped directly to pharmacies and hospitals. “Launch stock of Bronchitol is in the final stages of manufacture and our Pharmaxis and Quintiles sales teams are introducing Pharmaxis to cystic fibrosis centres in the United Kingdom and Germany. The customer services and logistics are now also in place. We are looking forward to making Bronchitol available to the European cystic fibrosis patients.”
Arvato is an internationally networked outsourcing services provider employing 60,000 people in more than 30 countries. Its integrated business processes and decentralized structure provide a high standard of flexible and efficient service for customers. Pharmaxis is a specialist pharmaceutical company involved in the research, development and commercialization of therapeutic products for chronic respiratory disorders. Its product Aridol® for the assessment of asthma is launched in a number of key markets. Its development pipeline of products includes, Bronchitol for cystic fibrosis and bronchiectasis and, PXS25 for the treatment of lung fibrosis and ASM8 and PXS4728 for asthma.
Viralytics Limited (VLA) is pleased to announce the receipt of a notice to grant a patent in China involving the use of a panel of Coxsackie A viruses including CAVATAKTM in the treatment of the blood cancer, multiple myeloma. The scope of this application covers the use of Coxsackieviruses A13, A15, A18 and A21 (CAVATAKTM) in the manufacture of a medication for treating multiple myeloma. Furthermore, the application covers the use of the above listed Coxsackie A viruses in the laboratory removal of malignant multiple myeloma cells within auto grafts prior to autologous stem cell transplantation. Multiple myeloma is a type of cancer that begins in white blood cells that produce antibodies. Approximately 22,000 new cases and 11,000 deaths are expected from multiple myeloma within the US in 2012. CAVATAKTM is currently being evaluated in a US Phase II clinical trial in late stage melanoma patients, under an Investigational New Drug application allowed by the US Food and Drug Administration.
Viralytics’ (VLA), principal asset is the intellectual property relating to CAVATAKTM, an Oncolytic Virus technology. CAVATAKTM is the trade name for Viralytics’ proprietary formulation of the Coxsackievirus Type A21 (CVA21). EVATAKTM is the trade name for Viralytics’ proprietary formulation of the Echovirus Type 1 (EV1). CVA21 and EV1 are viruses that occur naturally in the community. CVA21 and EV1 attach to the outside of cells, using a specific ‘receptor’ on the cell’s surface (like a key fitting a lock). CVA21 uses the receptors, intercellular adhesion molecule-1 (ICAM-1) and/or decay accelerating factor (DAF) to bind and infect target cells. Both of these receptor proteins have been demonstrated to be highly expressed on multiple cancer types, including: melanoma, prostate cancer, breast cancer, multiple myeloma and others. EV1 uses the receptor, integrin α2β1 (alpha 2 beta 1) receptorto bind and infect target cells.
Waterco Limited (WAT) will go ex dividend on 30/4/2012. The current dividend payment is 3 cents and it is 100% franked. The record date is 4/5/2012 and the dividend will be paid on 15/6/2012. Based on the full year payment the dividend yield is 7.8%.
*Current Yield: 2.9% Franking: 100% DRP Discount: Not Available
*Yield has been calculated on the closing price on the 27/3/2012. Current yield is based on the current dividend payment only.
