Stock Market Analysis: Markets Nervoursly Trade Higher

November 30th, 2011

* US stock markets rose again overnight, as an unexpected surge in consumer confidence boosted investor sentiment, but gains were kept in check due to concerns  in Europe.
* European stock markets rose again in a volatile session, after a successful Italian bond auction and continuing hopes that eurozone leaders will make progress in addressing the eurozone debt crisis.
* Asian stock markets ended mostly higher yesterday, after news that the US “Black Friday” which is the start of the Christmas shopping season produced figures that were better than expected and there was also optimism that European leaders are inching closer towards addressing the eurozone crisis.
* Commodities prices traded higher, as Gold prices higher to $US1,710 and while crude-oil closed around $US99.

The SPI Futures is trading around the key pivot level of 4250, ending up 0.6% (or 26 points) at 4,104. The key levels for our index today are 4050 to 4180.

Yesterday Aussie shares started the week on positive note, on the back of hopes of an Italian bailout by the IMF. The International Monetary Fund is reported to be setting up a EUR 600 billion ($A820 billion) rescue fund for Italy, to be used to refinance EUR 300 billion in debt due for repayment in 2012.  Such a bailout would give the ECB some breathing space to resolve the debt issues of the other PIIGS economies.

Shares in the All Ordinaries (XAO) generally eased again, closing up 1.7% at 4126, as the S&P/ASX 200 (XJO) closed up 1.9% at 4058.

Aussie traders are expected to show caution today, after the modestly higher leads from the US and European markets. Traders’ fears over the eurozone debt crisis have eased after encouraging comments from Germany and France over the need for an action plan, and in the US the “Black Friday” figures outperformed those of last year. We continue to have a busy week for AGMs and production reports, see below for details.

Economics News Today

*  Q3      Private New Capital Expenditure & Expected Expenditure
*  Oct     Financial Aggregates, incl Private Sector Credit

US Markets 

US stock markets rose again overnight, as an unexpected surge in consumer confidence boosted investor sentiment, but gains were kept in check due to concerns  in Europe.  
 
The Conference Board, said its index of consumer confidence jumped to 56.0 in November, from a revised 40.9 in October and the highest since July.  
 
The Dow Jones Index stayed above 11,500.  The broader markets were mixed with the S&P500  flat and the Tech-heavy Nasdaq the down -0.7%.  The gains were led by the energy sector as crude-oil traded around $US100 per barrel again. On the NYSE 17 declined stocks for every 13 gainers, but in technology the ratio was 2 to 1 in favour of the losers.
 
In corporate news, AMR, the parent company of American Airlines, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection, as AMR shares plunged -78%, while Tiffany shares slumped -9% after delivering  better-than-expected t 3Q results but disappointed with its earnings outlook for this quarter.  
 
In late news the S&P ratings agency has redefined it ratings measures and subsequently has downgrade a number of US banks including Bank of America, JP Morgan, Goldman’s and Citigroup which will no doubt a dampener for market early tonight.

All the ten company groups that make up the S&P index traded mixed with the Materials were up 0.2%, Energy sector were up 1.4%, Financials sector was down -0.5%, Industrials sector was up 0.1% , Technology were down -0.5%,  while  Consumer Staples were up 0.4%.

The Dow Jones closed up 0.3% (or 32 points) at 11,557 the S&P 500 index closed up 0.2%  (or 3 points) at 1,195 the Nasdaq ended down -0.5% (or -12 points)  at 2,516, and the smaller cap Russell 2000 was  down -0.3%.

European Markets

European stock markets rose again in a volatile session, after a successful Italian bond auction and continuing hopes that eurozone leaders will make progress in addressing the eurozone debt crisis. The Stoxx Europe 600 index closed up 0.8%. 
 
Investor sentiment received a boost after Italy managed to sell EUR7.499 billion in bonds, close to the top of its EUR8 billion target range, however Italy paid a yield of 7.89% on three-year bonds and 7.56% on the 10-year bonds, which are euro-era highs and are considered to be unsustainable.  The ECB also announced that it has absorbed EUR194.2 billion in liquidity from the financial system at its weekly tender, just short of its target of EUR203.5 billion.  The process has been keeping the euro dollar at artificially high levels.  
 
Banks across the region were under pressure early after the Moody’s Investors Service said it may downgrade the subordinated debt of 87 European banks, and news reports that the French triple-A credit rating could be under scrutiny for a potential downgrade by Standard & Poor’s Ratings Service.
 
UBS also dampened sentiment when they downgraded its gross-domestic-product (GDP) forecasts for the eurozone in 2012 to a 0.7% contraction, from a previous estimate of 0.2% growth, and bringing forward their prediction that the region’s recession will likely now start in the fourth quarter of this year.  As if that was not enough for investors to worry about, they are also monitoring the outcome of a two-day meeting of eurozone finance ministers in Brussels, where the ministers are expected to finalise the changes to the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) and decide on the next tranche of aid to Greece. 

In London the FTSE 100 index closed  up 0.5% (or 24 points) at 5,337, the German DAX was up 1.0% (or 55 points) at 5,799 while in France the CAC was up 0.5% (or 14 points)  at 3,026, Spain up 0.1% and Italy ended up 0.3%.

Asian Markets

Asian stock markets ended mostly higher yesterday, after news that the US “Black Friday” which is the start of the Christmas shopping season produced figures that were better than expected and there was also optimism that European leaders are inching closer towards addressing the eurozone crisis.  

Around the region, major exporters which rely heavily on end-of-year sales, rose after the solid start to the US shopping season, resource stocks rose on higher commodity prices and the banks continued to bounce. 

 In China the SSE Composite was closed up 1.2% (or 29 points) at 2,412, while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index was up 1.2% (or 218 points)  at 18,256 and in Japan the Nikkei 225 Index was closed up 2.3% (or 255 points) at 8,477, South Korean KOSPI was up 2.0%  for the session, while the Indian market was down -1.0%.

Commodities

The Dollar Index was lower  at 79.04 on a higher Euro, while the Australian Dollar last traded higher at 1.000. Commodities prices traded higher.

For the session the Benchmark crude NYMEX for December delivery was up 2.0% (or $US1.97) settle at $US99.75.  Copper prices are seeking a support level as Copper for December delivery was up 1.2% (or 3 cents) at $US3.3580.  December gold was up 1.5% (or $US25.30) at $US1,710. 

ASX News Today
 
AGG – AngloGold Ashanti has reported a substantial increase in the gold resource estimate for its Tropicana project in Western Australia.
 
AUN – AUstar the regional pay TV operator has welcomed the competition regulator delaying its decision on FOXTEL’s takeover bid.

BHP – Investment in the mining industry rose by 34 percent to a new record of to $231.8 billion in the six months to October, new data shows. As well, capital spending in the sector has risen 74 percent in the year since October 2010.

CPB – Campbell Brothers the laboratory group has delivered a record interim profit and flagged a surge in its full year result.

IAG – IAG has warned of an increased frequency of major storms, with Australia’s first severe tropical storms of the summer cyclone season to hit the country in early December.

PMV – Premier Investments, the owner of retail brands such as Just Jeans and Portmans, says trade improved in October and is in line with expectations in November.

UGL – United Group the engineering firm has secured $200 million in contracts tapping into Australia’s resources boom.

VDM – The VDM Group  the design and construction company has won $30.6 million worth of work with BHP Billiton. 

Local Corporate Reporting 
Aquila Resources (AQA)         Full year 2011 AGM 
Centro Properties Group (CNP)  Full year 2011 AGM 
Coalspur Mines Ltd (CPL)       Full year 2011 AGM 
Commonwealth Bank (CBA)        Q1 2012 Trading statement 
Gloucester Coal (GCL)          Full year 2011 AGM 
Lynas Corporation (LYC)        Full year 2011 AGM 
New Hope Corp Ltd (NHC)        Quarterly Activities Report 
Progen Pharmaceuticals (PGL)   Full year 2011 AGM 
Sims Metal Management (SGM)    Q1 2012 Activities Report 
Metcash Ltd (MTS.AU)           Interim 2012 Results    

Ex-dividend Date

None
 
Market Summary 
ASX – to open flat
US & UK/Europe – modestly higher

Commodities Stock Index  up 0.7%
Gold Stocks Index up 0.4%
Oil Stocks Index  up 1.5% 

US ADRs – Broadly Mixed!!…

BHP  up 0.1% & RIO down -0.8%; AWC down -1.6%
ANZ up 1.5% & NAB up 2.5%
NEM  up 0.1%, JHX up 3.1%, NWS up 3.3%

By Michael Hevern
Head of Research

 
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