Archive for August, 2011

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  • ASX Company News: Paladin Energy Secures New Uranium Sales

    Tuesday, August 23rd, 2011

    Paladin Energy Ltd (PDN) is pleased to announce the signing of a series of term uranium sales agreements for output from the Langer Heinrich Stage 3 expansion. The agreements have been signed with three new customers in the United States and further strengthens Paladin’s already significant presence within the U.S. nuclear market. Production commitments from the new agreements total more than 2.8Mlb U3O8 with deliveries beginning in 2012 and extending through to 2016. Contractual pricing provisions incorporate both fixed and base (escalated) mechanisms ranging from the low- to -mid-$60’s per pound U3O8. Paladin has recently been engaging with a number of parties in relation to new sales contracts and reasonably expects to enter into further term agreements in the coming months. The Langer Heinrich Stage 3 expansion is near completion with commissioning and staged ramp-up progressing well. Langer Heinrich Stage 3 will increase annual output from 3.7Mlb U3O8 to 5.2Mlb U3O8.

    Commenting on these new sales agreements, Paladin’s Managing Director/CEO John Borshoff said: “We have consistently stated that nuclear fuel buyers continue to recognise the need to secure uranium supplies for the medium and longer term despite the price volatility and perceived uranium market uncertainties caused by events in Japan. These contracts, signed at prices well in excess of the prevailing spot price, only serve to further support this message,” Mr Borshoff said. “Importantly, these agreements are in keeping with Paladin’s long-standing uranium contracting strategy of developing a risk-managed portfolio of term sales agreements incorporating various delivery price mechanisms including defined prices as well as market price exposure at time of delivery.

    www.paladinenergy.com.au

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    ASX Company News: CogState To Acquire Remaining Stake In Axon Sports

    Tuesday, August 23rd, 2011

    CogState (CGS) announced that it will acquire the remaining 50% stake in Axon Sports LLC resulting in Axon Sports becoming a 100% owned subsidiary. Axon Sports provides online cognitive assessment to assist in evaluating and managing sports- related concussions. For CogState, the management of concussion in sport is a fast growing market, providing enormous opportunity for growth of revenue and profitability in the short term. The 100% control of Axon Sports will allow CogState to utilise the Axon Sports online testing and associated materials to pursue the sports concussion markets outside North America. Importantly, 100% control of Axon Sports means that CogState is in a position to take full advantage of current opportunities being discussed with large pharmaceutical companies with the aim of making CogState technology available to clinicians as a low cost, non-invasive, screening tool that could be provided within a clinician‟s surgery, in numerous indications, including sports concussions. CogState will acquire the 50% stake for 7,461,831 CogState Ltd fully paid ordinary shares at a notional price of $0.17 per share.

    CogState‟s partners in the formation of Axon Sports, Quixote Investment principals Rudy Chapa and Patricia Eiting, will remain heavily involved in the management of Axon Sports, retaining their current positions as Directors of Axon Sports LLC.

    Axon Sports provides online cognitive assessment tools that aid the evaluation and management of sports-related concussions. CogState Ltd (CGS) specialises in the development and commercialisation of rapid, computerised tests of cognition (brain function). To date, CogState has commercialised its technology in two markets – clinical drug trials and concussion management in sport. In the clinical drug trial market, CogState technology and associated services are used by pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies to quantify the effect of drugs or other interventions on human subjects participating in clinical trials.

    www.cogstate.com

    http://www.traderdealer.com.au/Fundamentals/cgs

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    ASX Company News: Endeavour Mining Corporation To Merge With Adamus Resources

    Tuesday, August 23rd, 2011

    Endeavour Mining Corporation and Adamus Resources Limited  (ADU) are pleased to announce they have entered into  a definitive Merger Implementation  Agreement to combine through an all-­‐stock merger of equals transaction creating a new growth focused West African gold producer. Endeavour intends to invest at least US$160 million from its current cash  balance to relieve the constraints of Adamus’ Nzema project finance structure, including repayment of  the US$60 million project loan and at least US$100 million towards reduction of hedged gold volumes. In addition, the Merged Entity has an acquisition growth strategy to more than double this gold production rate by the end of 20132. Upon completion of the Scheme, existing Endeavour shareholders and Adamus shareholders will own approximately 47.2% and 52.8%, respectively, of the issued common shares of the Merged Entity. This will result in greater leverage to the gold price, increased operating cashflow and EBITDA, and increased management flexibility.

    Commenting on the business combination Mark Connelly, Managing Director and CEO of Adamus said: “This transaction delivers considerable value to Adamus shareholders through the combination of our proven mine development skills and materially enhanced financial flexibility from Endeavour. This enables accelerated growth through the combined portfolio of development and exploration projects.”

    Endeavour is a gold producer committed to growing its business and enhancing shareholder value. Endeavour owns the Youga Gold Mine in Burkina Faso, and an attractive pipeline of exploration and development projects in West Africa. Adamus’ primary focus is on expanding the economic potential of the Nzema Gold Project in Ghana, West Africa.

    www.endeavourmining.com

    www.adamusresources.com.au

    http://www.traderdealer.com.au/Fundamentals/adu

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    Share Purchase Plan: Australian Leaders Fund

    Monday, August 22nd, 2011

    Australian Leaders Fund (ALF) announced on the 19/8/2011 that they would be conducting a Share Purchase Plan to raise additional capital. The record date was the 18/8/2011 on which shareholders must own the share to participate in the SPP. The closing date is 30/9/2011.  Shares will be issued on 7/10/2011 and begin trading on 10/10/2011.    A maximum of $15,000 can be purchased by each shareholder at  a 2.5% discount to the volume weighted average price..

    Discount :  7.0% Liquidity : Poor Profitability : Ok  Stability : Ok

    www.australianleaders.com.au

    *Note: Discount is based on the closing price on the 17 August 2011.

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    ASX Company News: Beach Energy To Construct New Pipeline

    Monday, August 22nd, 2011

    Beach Energy Ltd (BPT) advises it has signed an agreement with Senex Energy Ltd (SXY) to tie-in the Growler Field (Beach 40%) to the Lycium oil field. It has also agreed with Senex to construct a trunkline from Lycium to the Moomba facility, however, the tie-in of this section remains subject to approval from the South Australian Cooper Basin (SACB) Joint Venture (~Santos Ltd 67%, Beach 20%, Origin Ltd 13%).

    It is anticipated that the flowline from the Growler Field will be constructed in two main sections. The first section, directly from the Growler Field to the Lycium oil field, will consist of a six inch flowline with an initial capacity of approximately 8,000 barrels of oil per day. The equity interests for this section of flowline will be Beach 40% and Senex 60%.

    Pending approval from the SACB Joint Venture, the main trunkline will service the whole of Beachs operated and non-operated Western Flank acreage and is planned to run between Lycium and the Moomba facility. The capacity of this eight inch trunkline is expected to be in the order of 15,000 barrels of oil per day. The equity interests for this section will be Beach 60% and Senex 40%.

    Beach will undertake both the construction and operatorship of the flowlines, with the total cost of approximately $40 million to be effectively shared between Beach and Senex.

    These flowlines will provide Beach with access to the Growler Field during times of flooding in much the same way it has for Beachs PEL 92 acreage during the recent flooding events. The second trunkline will also provide for increased production flows from Beachs operated EPL 91 and PEL 92 acreage as a result of recent development, appraisal and exploration success in the area.

    www.beachenergy.com.au

    http://www.traderdealer.com.au/Fundamentals/bpt

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    ASX Company News: SmartTrans Enters Joint Venture For Chinese Mobile Payments

    Monday, August 22nd, 2011

    SmartTrans (SMA) has signed a binding agreement with China Mobile’s CMPay E- Commerce Center that will allow SmartTrans to collect payment from China Mobile customers. This arrangement gives SmartTrans billing access to China Mobile’s 616 million customers  and allows for China Mobile users to buy SmartTrans products including SmartTrans e-Solution logistics software and other content, on their mobile telephones and pay via their China Mobile CMPay account. The agreement is in addition to SmartTrans’ proposed agreement with China Mobile Shanxi to supply SmartTrans MyLife mobile telephone based AMP software. China Mobile’s CMPay is a mobile payment service based on the mobile network and internet. It allows users to conduct e-commerce operations though their mobile phone, such as payments, recharging, transferring or enquiries. Users can make payments through their mobile payment account or the payment gateway of China Mobile.

    www.smarttrans.com.au

    http://www.traderdealer.com.au/Fundamentals/sma

    www.cmpay.com

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    ASX Company News: MacMahon Holdings Awarded Underground Mining Contract

    Monday, August 22nd, 2011

    Macmahon Holdings Limited (MAH) is pleased to announce that it has been awarded a two-year underground engineering construction contract valued at approximately $110 million at the CSA Mine for Cobar Management Pty Ltd (CMPL), a subsidiary of AG Glencore International. The CSA Mine is an underground copper mine located in Cobar, in central western New South Wales. The contract will see Macmahon undertake the project works as a complete turnkey contract. This will include all engineering design, fabrication, procurement, construction and management of the extension and upgrade of the CSA No. 1 Shaft. The project will require approximately 70 people to be employed on site. The scope of work includes extension of the existing shaft from 1050 metres to 1550 metres including ground support and concrete lining; equipping the shaft for hoisting to the surface including steel guides and services; construction of a new head frame and installation of a tower mounted friction winder; and construction of a new underground materials handling system including crusher, ore bins, conveyors and loading station. On completion, the new underground materials handling and shaft hoisting system will have a capacity of 1.6 million tonnes per annum from a depth of 1500 metres.

    Macmahon Chief Executive Officer, Nick Bowen, said the contract win is an excellent outcome for the business. “It is particularly pleasing to be able to combine all facets of our capability including in-house mechanical, structural and electrical engineering, design, fabrication and on-site construction to deliver CMPL a quality solution to a complex project,” Mr Bowen said. The project will be delivered by the Engineering division, which was previously part of the Underground division. The Engineering division will target projects such as this and the growth opportunities that exist in the market. “This expanded focus reflects that all facets of the underground division are expanding, with recent contract awards spanning all our key services, including raise drilling, underground construction and specialised services. These awards add further depth to our already strong portfolio of work across Australia.

    Macmahon is a leading Australian contract mining and construction company with major projects throughout Australia, in New Zealand, Asia and Africa. An ASX/S&P 200 company, Macmahon has played a major role in the delivery of many of Australia’s largest multi-disciplinary mining and construction projects throughout its 48 year history. Employing more than 3500 people, Macmahon offers the full range of underground and surface mining services and comprehensive construction capabilities spanning transport, marine, water and resource infrastructure services.

    www.macmahon.com.au

    http://www.traderdealer.com.au/fundamentals/mah

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    Stock Market Analysis: Market Rout Continues

    Monday, August 22nd, 2011

    * U.S. stocks closed down Friday for a fourth consecutive losing week.  Investors remain concerned over a faltering global recession and the struggling European banking system. The VIX (the fear guage) had its highest weekly close in early 2009, reflecting the unease in the investment community.
    * European stock markets finished the week lower, with the Stoxx Europe 600 index ending the week down -6% as financial shares led the rout across Europe.
    * Asian stock markets ended last week lower as worries about the global economic outlook weighed on sentiment.
    * Commodities prices traded higher, but gold prices surged above $US1,852 and crude-oil closed below $US83.

    The SPI Futures is trading around the key pivot level of 4000, ending up 0.1% (or 3 points) at 4,072, but the index was down -2.6% for the week. The key levels for our index this week are 4250 to 3850. On Friday night global stocks traded lower again in Europe as investors continued to rush for the exits and Euro banks remained weak.  Investors can expect further downside because when markets are faced with uncertainty, they tend to sell first and ask questions later. Markets will be watching the testing of the recent lows for a potential support level near-term.

    Australian shares joined overseas markets in a selling spree Friday. Even though the ASX tried to find support after the early session sell-off, it finished on its lows for the day. Aussie shares have lost over $45 billion in today’s trading, as Australian investors joined their overseas counterparts in a rush for the exits, and obviously there were few traders prepared to hold over the weekend. Only the gold sector was spared the rout on Friday, as the selling pressure came from the banks, mining and energy stocks.  Investors can expect a nervous week as they try to make sense of the recent volatility and what this means for the market direction near-term. 

    See below for ASX listed companies in the news today.

    U.S. Markets

    U.S. stocks closed down Friday for a fourth straight losing week.  Investors remain concerned over a faltering global recession and the struggling European banking system. The VIX (the fear guage) had its highest weekly close in early 2009, reflecting the unease in the investment community. 

    The Dow Jones Index closed down after another volatile session. The Dow Jones is down -4% for the week and is down -15% from its July highs. The S&P 500 stock index closed lower, led lower by technology and financial stocks. All 10 of the S&P 500 sectors closed in negative territory. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite closed at fresh lows for the year. The broader indices are now down over -16% since the July highs.  Hewlett-Packard plummeted -20% to 6-year lows after proposing a split up of its businesses and was the biggest Dow decline.  This also weighed on the technology sector.

    Investors remain apprehensive over policy gridlock in Washington, the European sovereign debt crisis and the faltering global economy. The primary issue at the moment is contagion of the European crisis, with fears that the problems surrounding European banks could spill over into the world banking system.

    All ten company groups that make up the S&P index traded sharply lower: Industrials were down -1.5%,  Materials were down -1.6%, the Energy sector was down -1.8%, the Financials sector was down -2.0%, Technology was down -2.4%, while Consumer Staples were down -1.5%.

    The Dow Jones closed sharply down -1.6% (or -173 points) at 10,818, the S&P 500 index closed down -1.5% (or -17 points) at 1,124, the Nasdaq ended down -1.6% (or -39 points) at 2,342, and the smaller cap Russell 2000 was down -5.9%.

    European Markets

    European stock markets finished the week lower again, as investors continue to rush for the exits, with bank shares remaining under pressure on fears over the euro-zone debt crisis and global growth concerns and the global economic slowdown. The Stoxx Europe 600 index fell 1.6% to end the week down -6% as financial shares led the rout across Europe.

    In London the FTSE closed lower with financials leading the way with Lloyds and Royal Bank of Scotland Group down over -4.4%. The index is now trading just above 5,000, down -5.1% for the week and is back at the lows of mid-2010. In Germany shares plummeted to lows not seen since mid 2009, losing -8.6% for the week and down -23% for August, as financials and automakers have been particularly hard hit.

    The FTSE 100 index was down -1.0% (or -51 points) at 5,040, the German DAX was down -2.2% (or -123 points) at 5,480, while in France the CAC was down -1.9% (or -59 points) at 3,017. 

    Asian Markets

    Asian stock markets ended last week lower as worries about the global economic outlook weighed on sentiment. Across the region shipbuilders, exporters and financials around the region were among the hardest hit.

    In Japan the Nikkei Stock Index had its lowest close since April 2009, as the exporters continued to be battered by the strong yen, but the selling was broad based due to the weak economic outlook. 

    In Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index fell over -3% with its August losses standing at -14%. In China the Shanghai Composite fell -2.3% for the week and had its lowest close since July 2010, as financials and energy stocks traded lower.

    Among the worst performers was the South Korean market which plunged -6.2%, due concerns about global growth. In Seoul program trading was briefly suspended in a bid to arrest the decline of the Kospi, but the index is now down -18% for August and is by far the worst performer in the major regional indexes.

    In China the SSE Composite was down -1.0% (or -25 points) at 2,534, while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index was down -3.1% (or -661 points) at 19,400 and in Japan the Nikkei 225 Index was down -2.5% (or -225 points) at 8,719. The South Korean KOSPI was down -6.2% for the session, while the Indian market was  down -2.0%.

    Commodities

    The Dollar Index was lower at 74.00 on a higher Euro, while the Australian Dollar last traded higher at 103.98. Commodities prices were higher.

    For the session the benchmark crude NYMEX for August delivery was down -0.2% (or -$US0.12) settle at $US82.71.  Copper prices are still below key pivot level as Copper for August delivery was up 0.5% (or 1.8 cents) at $US3.9750.  August gold was up 1.7% (or $US30.00) at $US1,852.60. 

    ASX News Today

    ANZ – ANZ Bank increased underlying profit for the nine months to June by 16.1% to $4.2 billion. ANZ remains committed to its strategy of focusing on Asia and keeping more cash in reserve.  ANZ shares joined their peers in selling down -4.5%.  Commonwealth Bank traded down -2.9%, National Bank closed down -3.3%, Westpac Bank was down -3.6% and Macquarie Group plunged -5.8%.

    AGO – Atlas Iron reported it has increased its iron ore reserves in the North Pilbara region of Western Australia by 50% to 79.3 million tonnes.

    BBG – Billabong, the surfwear retailer, has handed down disappointing results, reporting an annual profit of $119 million, which is an 18.4% fall. The company has also withdrawn earlier guidance on growth in earnings per share in the current year, commenting that the annual profit would be hit by a higher tax charge and the ongoing headwinds of the Aussie dollar and a weak retail environment. Billabong shares closed down -26.1%. 

    CCC – Continental Coal Ltd will shares be consolidated 1 for 10. The record date will be 1 Sep 2011.

    FMG – The Fortescue Metals Group, one of the world’s largest exporters of iron ore, said its full-year net profit jumped 76% as the price of the steelmaking commodity strengthened. Net profit rose to US$1.02 billion in the year to June 30, while sales revenue increased 69%. The company said it maintained steady production ahead of the commissioning of a new facility in the Pilbara, but its share price plunged -5.0% on the day.  

    QBE – QBE Insurance Group increased first half net profit to $US673 million, up 53% as investment income more than made up for the surge in natural disaster related claims. Also gross written premium, a crucial KPI for the insurance industry, increased 30% to $8.94 billion. Despite this result QBE closed down -5.6%.

    STO – Santos reported strong first half results with underlying net profit of $236 million, up 13% and above the market consensus, production costs fell 6%, while net operating cash flow rose 27%. Santos ended down -5.2%. 

    TLS – Telstra Corp goes ex-dividend on today.

    Local Corporate Reporting

    NCM – Newcrest Mining Ltd full year results
    LEI – Leighton Holdings Ltd full year results
    ANN – Ansell Ltd full year results
    IIN – iiNet Ltd full year results
    UGL – UGL Ltd full year results
     

    Ex-dividend Date

    Greencross Limited (GXL)
    Mount Gibson Iron (MGX)
    STW Communications (SGN)
    Telstra Corporation (TLS)
    UGL Limited (UGL)
    Woodside Petroleum (WPL)

    Market Summary

    ASX – to open lower
    US & UK/Europe – sharply lower
    US ADRs – Broadly Lower

    BHP down -1.7% & RIOdown -2.8%; AWC -1.7%
    ANZ down -2.7% & NAB down -1.4%
    NEM  up 2.8%, JHX down -2.7%, NWS down -3.1%

    Commodities Stock Index down -1.1%
    Gold Stocks Index up 1.8%
    Oil Stocks Index down -14% 

    By Michael Hevern
    Head of Research

    For Buy and Sell recommendations on ASX listed companies register for a FREE trial of MDS Financial Research.

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    Low Risk Entry Opportunities

    Friday, August 19th, 2011

    As a market watcher and active trader I have observed that there are times when I am certain the market will move higher and other times when I am sure it will move lower – though most of the time I have no idea what is going to happen next. Markets are trading around the clock and there are many opportunities to profit, but it becomes absolutely necessary as a trader to specialise and narrow your focus. It is important to let half-rate opportunities pass you by and act only when the signals all line up and scream out buy. Chasing the half rate opportunities eats into both your account balance and your confidence.

    Every time you enter a trade you are choosing to place some of your capital at risk. I’m sure by now you’re aware that it is critical to know how much capital you have at risk on each trade, so I won’t repeat those rules again today. The whole purpose of placing your capital at risk is to gain a reward. And if you’re a successful trader then you have learnt to balance risk against reward. And this is where things get interesting.

    Your aim when trading is to minimise your risk and maximise your rewards. This is illustrated in a random entry strategy that buys any share and then sells it three days later. If you keep repeating this process, you can say you are a trader. But the net results are likely to be very poor. If the market is bullish you might make money with this approach, but if the market is bearish there is an excellent chance you will lose. Some shares you buy will go up a little, some more and some a lot, while some shares will go down a little, some more and some a lot. Overall this tends to cancel out, but what if you cut out your large losing trades. All of a sudden your results are skewed to the upside. Small losses and big wins can lead to very profitable trading. At this point it becomes tempting to place tight stop losses to cut off your losing trades, but too many losing trades and you are also going backwards quickly.

    Let’s consider another way to balance the risk reward equation by refining your entry technique. Wait for the right trade to come along before ever placing an order. While you may have to wait forever for the perfect trade to arrive, the best trades all have one common characteristic. Whether the trade wins or loses is unknown when you enter the trade, but the risk you are taking is clear. A low risk entry opportunity will always outperform in the long term, because you are only taking on a small risk with a chance of making a reward. What does a low risk entry point look like in the wild? Oops! I mean, The Bourse.

    A low risk entry point is one that you will quickly tell you if you got it wrong or not. It’s extremely difficult to pick the exact turning point in any market, but the price movement after your entry will confirm very quickly if you are right or wrong. As an example an entry near a trend line is a low risk entry point. If the price moves below the trend line then you know very quickly you are wrong and can exit safely with minimal risk. In a similar way if you enter as a share bounces off support or resistance, you know you are wrong if it breaks through that level soon after. And when the share you are trading reaches an extreme and turns around this is another low risk entry point as you will quickly be proven wrong by a move to a new low.

    Entry Opportunities in Commonwealth Bank

    In the chart of Commonwealth Bank (CBA) the first line marks the peak in the Money Flow Index shown at the bottom of the chart. This is an extreme that occurred in April and a small pullback from this level began to develop. It would be possible to short sell CBA, using options, warrants or CFDs, but it did not go as planned and CBA moved higher and this trade would have been exited for a small loss, unless you exited quickly.

    The next time the Money Flow index reached an extreme was in May and the trade worked out better as this pullback developed some strength. The top trend line could now be drawn. The Money Flow Index then peaked again and coincided with hitting the downwards trendline. This is an excellent trading opportunity as two low risk entry opportunities line up. However it took two months for this opportunity to arise in July. Would you wait for two months for a trade? Remember good things are worth waiting for. And one last opportunity appears in mid July – this time for the buyers which could have resulted in a quick gain for short term traders who exit quickly.

    Right now we are in no man’s land, and there are no low risk entry opportunities in CBA. The Money Flow index is sitting in the middle of the road and a significant move could occur in either direction. Be patient and wait for the next low risk entry opportunity to arise. And for the impatient there are other shares to follow, but stick to the same rules.

    By Jeff Cartridge
    Education Manager

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    Weekly Market Wrap: European Banks Spark Global Market Selloff Again

    Friday, August 19th, 2011

    What a difference a day makes. Up until last night the bulls appeared to be in control, although the buying pressure had subsided from last week’s monumental run. Investors are still coming to terms with the downgrade of the U.S. credit rating from AAA to AA+, and rumours persist that other AAA rated European economies may be subject to downgrades.

    A number of European countries, namely France, Spain, Italy and Belgium all introduced some short-selling bans to try to stem the recent selling pressure. The crisis is far from over in Europe and obviously the selling ban has not worked, with European banks down around 10% overnight. Note that last time there was a selling ban markets fell another 20%.

    Investors continue to be concerned over the euro zone sovereign debt crisis and were disappointed by the comments coming out of the meeting of European leaders. Germany and France failed to alleviate investor concerns about the economic state of the region at the meeting. The euro zone economic council said that it would help strengthen national fiscal solvency, but Germany and France opposed the issuance of euro zone bonds, which had been hoped for prior to the meeting.

    The market volatility is likely to continue as investors battle against the machines using algorithmic trading programs (algo trading). Algo trading has become dominant since the US removed the “up tick” rule back in 2008, and until the regulators reinstate the rule the markets will be subject to free fall, which has happened regularly over the past week.

    The key US markets are now down over 15% from their April peaks and are perilously close to the flash crash of last week. Note that last time we had conditions like this the market collapsed 40% before finding a floor.

    Commodities prices have been volatile this week, and are generally finishing lower, with the exception of gold which is at record levels above $US1,824 per ounce. Crude oil is pulling back to the $US80 level and copper prices are below the $US4.00 per pound level again. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note briefly dipped below 2% for the first time in nearly 60 years.

    US Markets

    US stock markets were crushed overnight as investors fear a recession, and following on from the steep losses in European and Asian markets. Sentiment was also dampened as US investment banks lowered their global growth estimates; investors are reassessing their expectations for stock prices going forward.

    The Dow Jones Index fell below 11,000, while the S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq slumped 4.5%. After eking out modest gains earlier this week the US markets have been slammed and look set to test the lows of last week near term. Overnight no sector was spared but investors dumped energy and materials stocks, as commodities prices plunged and the financials joined their Euro counterparts in the rout.

    Sentiment has been hurt by poor economic news regarding manufacturing figures and some downgrades to global growth into 2012 from investment banks. This has undermined the tech stock projections and once again the financials have been lagging the market. That changed overnight though when the financials led the falls.

    Overnight the Dow Jones closed sharply down -3.7% at 10,990, the S&P 500 index closed down -4.5% at 1,140, the Nasdaq ended down -4.5% at 2,380, and the smaller cap Russell 2000 was down -5.9%. Look for US markets to test recent lows in the coming days.

    European Markets

    European stock markets held on to recent gains earlier this week, but last night investors rushed for the exits, dumping banking, mining and energy shares due to fears over the euro zone debt crisis and fears of a possible double dip recession as global growth falters. The rout on European markets extended after the disappointing US economic data and global growth downgrades from some investment banks. Bank stocks were decimated after a Wall Street Journal article reported that US regulators are stepping up their surveillance of European banks due to worries that they could face funding difficulties.

    Overnight the Stoxx Europe 600 index slumped -4.8% and European losses were spread across all countries and all market sectors, though banks felt the brunt of the falls, with most down over 10% in the session. In London the FTSE 100 index was down -4.5% at 5,092, the German DAX was down -5.8% at 5,602, while in France the CAC was down -5.5% at 3,076.

    European stock markets are expected to remain weak until they get some action that addresses the region’s debt crisis situation and investors come to terms with the slowing economic growth, as evidenced in the German GDP figures which came in below expectations.

    Asian Markets

    Asian stock markets have continued to be weak and many markets are either at their March lows or look set to test these levels near term, as the worries about the global economic outlook continue to weigh on sentiment.

    In Japan the Nikkei Stock Index has again fallen below 9,000 and is at its lowest finish since mid-March, as exporters were again hit from concerns over the yen’s strength and fears of declining global demand. In Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index closed around the 20,000 level again, while in China the Shanghai Composite also declined. Asian investor sentiment has been plagued by concerns that debt problems in the key US and European markets will hurt demand for manufactured goods and commodities.

    Overnight in China the SSE Composite was down -1.6% at 2,559, while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index was down -1.3% at 20,016 and in Japan the Nikkei 225 Index was down -1.3% at 8,943. The South Korean KOSPI was down -1.7% for the session, while the Indian market was down -2.2%.

    Our View for the Australian Market

    The Australian share markets continue to be driven by overseas sentiment, so expect the volatility to continue near-term, particularly in Europe and the US.

    The S&P/ASX 200 index looks set to test its key support level around 3900 near term, and if that fails the next support level would be 3750, which was a pivotal level back in the 2008 GFC recovery phase and held last week.

    Expect stock prices to continue to experience volatility near term. Last week we had blue chip stocks down over 30 percent from their April peaks and that was when bargain hunters stepped in. Gold stocks have weathered the storm, supported by the surge in the gold price which is again at record levels above $US1,824 in a “flight to safety”.

    There are still concerns that the sovereign debt situation in Europe is out of control and the likes of France may see credit ratings downgrades near term. The euro zone leaders failed to address the concerns over the sovereign debt crisis this week.

    The S&P/ASX 200 has traded in a 16 percent range in the past few weeks. The line in the sand was drawn last week around 3750 and the 4000 level remains a pivot key in the short term.

    Investors need to be attuned to this resumption in selling pressure, from the negative leads in the U.S. and Europe, as investors plot a path from here, in an environment where there are concerns over faltering global growth and European debt contagion fears, which is sparking the spectre of a double-dip recession.

    Our reporting season continued this week with mixed results. The RBA looks set to leave rates on hold near-term, the dividend season is underway, and the Aussie dollar has strengthened this week which is providing additional headwinds for corporations with US earnings.

    Banks are attractive on a yield basis, but they are retesting key support levels which would need to hold. Many blue chip stocks are even cheaper on a valuation basis but investors are still fearful, plus fund managers and investors alike are still underweight equities.

    The markets need to stabilise near-term and sentiment from overseas needs to improve before we fully commit to the view of a turnaround. On an earnings basis there is reason to start accumulating when all others are most fearful. The S&P/ASX 200 is currently trading at 4140 having pulled back from key resistance around 4325. Key levels for the index next week will be 4325 and 3900.

    Keep that shopping list close at hand and be prepared to start accumulating when others are most cautious, you can use options to limit your risks. Expect to see further volatility going forward as the market participants look for some guidance for the direction of the market.

    Use options strategies to reduce your risk in these volatile times. MDS Financial Advisory Services offers general advice on trading options to generate consistent steady income on your investment portfolio. Call me on 1300 610 024 for further information.

    For buy and sell recommendations on ASX listed companies register for a free trial of MDS Financial Research.

    By Michael Hevern
    Head of Research

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