Stock Market Analysis: Marktets Higher Led By Financials

April 29th, 2011

 * U.S. stock markets continued to rise extending their multi-year highs overnight.
* European stock markets closed in positive territory overnight, led by the financials.
* Asian share markets ended mixed yesterday.
* In commodities Crude-oil hit $US114 and Gold futures again hit an all-time high above $US1,534 an ounce.  

The SPI Futures is trading below the key level of 4930, as the SPI Futures up 0.2% (or 9 pts) at 4,882. The key levels for our index today are 4920 and 4840. The ASX is set to open higher as we saw markets rise in the U.S. and European markets. 

Trading activity will be brisk this morning as options trades settle.  The U.S. earnings reporting season continues this week. Investors still need to monitor the Aussie dollar which has again reached post-float highs above $US1.094.

See below for ASX listed companies in the news today.

Economics News Today

* Financial Aggregates for March, including Private Sector Credit.

U.S. Markets

U.S. stock markets continued to rise extending their multi-year highs overnight.  Investors reacted to positive earnings reports, looking past uninspiring economic data, as they pushed stocks higher again.  The Dow Jones Index is approaching the 3-year highs, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq is a 10-year highs. 

Key indicators point to a sustainable rally including: the Dow Jones Transportation Average, which is often seen as important evidence of an active economy, reached a new all-time closing high (previous high was 6 June, 2008); and the Small capitalisation stocks in the Russell 2000 index again participated extending recent gains. 

In corporate earnings news: ExxonMobil reported strong quarterly profits of nearly $US11 billion as the energy giant benefited from a politically sensitive surge in oil prices, 1Q Net income surged 69 percent hitting $US10.65 billion.  Procter & Gamble reported 3Q net profit rose 11 percent as sales increased in all its regions around the world. 

In economic data: the U.S. pending home sales climbed more than expected last month, but gross domestic product (GDP) showed a significant slowing from the previous quarter, while jobs data showed U.S. jobless claims unexpectedly rose last week.   GDP data from the Commerce Department showed a slowdown in growth in the first quarter to 1.8 per cent from 3.1 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2010.  The Labor Department reported new claims for unemployment insurance benefits surged more than expected last week to 429,000, the highest level since January. 

The US dollar to new 3-year lows, after weak U.S. growth and unemployment data was released during the session. Commodities rose on the weaker US dollar. Spot gold rose to an all-time high of $US1,538.35 an ounce, breaking records for the ninth time in 10 sessions.  Oil rose to nearly $US114 a barrel in volatile trading, but gave up most of its early gains, while Copper erased earlier gains to end easier, weighed down by the slowing economic conditions in the US.

The Dow closed up 0.6% (or 72 points) at 12,763, while in the broader market the S&P 500 index closed up 0.4% (or 5 points) at 1,360 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq ended up 0.1% (or 3 points) at 2,873.

All 10 company groups that make up the S&P index traded higher, with out-performers including: Financials up 0.8%, Consumer Staples sector was 0.6%, Healthcare was up 0.5%, Industrials sectors was up 0.3%, while Materials and Energy sectors were flat.

European Markets

European stock markets advanced Thursday, led by financials which were boosted by some strong results from key banks.  The Stoxx Europe 600 index closed up 0.3%, led by the insurance and utility sectors. 

Investors welcomed the US Fed commitment to keep interest rates low, and also shrugged off US growth figures showing a sharp deceleration in the first quarter to a 1.8 percent pace as governments slashed spending. 

In London the FTSE 100 index finished flat ahead of  a four-day break, as U.K. markets will be closed Friday for the Royal wedding and Monday for a holiday.

In Germany the market rose led by financials as official data showed that German unemployment dropped slightly in April, and is around the lowest level for about 20 years, Deutsche Bank rose 4.8% after reporting a 17% increase in net profit as a string of recent acquisitions helped drive growth; this offset weakness in the Technology sector after SAP AG disappointed.

In London the FTSE 100 index closed flat (or 2 points) at 6,069, the German DAX was up 0.9% (or 70 points) at 7,475, while in France the CAC was up 0.9% (or 37 points) at 4,105.

Asian Markets

Asian share markets ended mixed yesterday, as investors took profits from early gains spurred by a Wall Street rally after US Fed said the bank had no timetable for raising interest rates and will remain accomodative “for an extended period”. 

In Japan the Nikkei Index was the best performer for the day, despite data showing industrial production was down a record 15.3% in March from the previous month, having been hit worst than expected by the earthquake and tsunami. 

Chinese and Hong Kong markets were dragged down for a fifth trading sessions due to concerns that government could tighten monetary policy in the near term.

In China the SSE Composite down -1.3% (or -39 points) at  3,025, while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index was down -0.4% (or -87 points) at 23,805 and in Japan the Nikkei 225 Index was up 1.6% (or 157 points) at 9,849.  The South Korean Kospi Composite ended flat once again.

Commodities

The Dollar Index was lower at 73.12 on a higher Euro, while the Australian Dollar last traded around record levels at 109.26. Commodities were generally higher.

For the session the Benchmark crude NYMEX for April delivery was up 0.1% (or $US0.10) to settle at $US112.76. Copper prices are sells-off from 2-year highs as Copper for April delivery was up 0.4% (or 1.7 cents) at $US4.2530. April gold was up 0.9% (or $US14.20) at $US1,534.80.

ASX Market News

AFL – The AFL is set to pocket a cool $1.25 billion from a 5-year broadcast deal with Seven Group Holdings (SVW) and pay TV broadcasters Foxtel (NWS & TLS) and Austar (AUN).

AQP – Aquarius Platinum may review the restart date of its Blue Ridge mine in South Africa, after the miner reported that higher production and prices led to a rise in March quarter net profit.

BPT – Beach Energy has downgraded its full year oil and gas production guidance due to operational issues, after heavy rain affected its March quarter output, when production in the March quarter fell 9 percent.

BTA – Biota Holdings the Relenza developer, says indicative royalties from sales of the Relenza flu drug were $1.0 million for the three months to 31 March.

CPU – Computershare has made its largest acquisition yet, agreeing to a $US550 million purchase of the shareowner services business of The Bank of New York Mellon Corporation.

GDO – Gold One International will buy Rand Uranium Ltd for $US250 million in cash to get the South African miner’s gold and uranium reserves.

GFF – Goodman Fielder slumped after the food manufacturer downgraded its full year profit guidance, its share price plunged 9 percent.

KGL – Kagara says the Chinese are likely to be a JV partner for its Admiral Bay base metals mining project in WA.

MCC – Macarthur Coal has lifted its force majeure over its mines in Queensland’s Bowen Basin where wet weather has abated and is reviewing its production guidance.

ORG – Origin Energy’s majority-owned by NZ’s Contact Energy, is aiming to raise around $NZ350million in a rights offer.

OSH – Oil Search reported a fall in operating revenue in the March quarter on lower oil and gas production, and despite a jump in the oil price.

VPG – Valad Property Group is in a trading halt on the ASX as the company says it’s talking with a third party about selling the business.

WHC – Whitehaven Coal earnings have been hit by a series of natural disasters this year with the miner forced to reduce its underlying profit guidance.

Local Corporate Reporting

Australian Worldwide Exploration  (AWE)  March Quarterly Report
Foster’s Group Ltd (FGL)    EGM re spin-off of wine business
Macarthur Coal March       Quarterly Report
Macquarie Group Ltd (MQG)   Full year 2011 Results
Murchison Metals Ltd (MMX)  Q3 2011 Activities Report
Oceanagold (OGC)            Q1 2011 Earnings conference call
Origin Energy Ltd (ORG)     Quarterly Production Report
Westfield Retail Trust (WRT)         Full year 2011 AGM
West Australian Newspaper (WAN)      Q3 2011 Activities Report
Ex-dividend Date

IGF – ING Office Fund
CAB – Cabcharge Australia Ltd
WOW – Woolworths Ltd

Market Summary

ASX – to open higher
US & UK/Europe – Higher

US ADRs – Broadly Mixed!!…

BHP down -0.1% & RIO down -0.7%; AWC down -1.6%
ANZ up 1.6% & NAB up 1.7%
NEM  down -0.3%, JHX down -3.4% , NWS up 0.3%

Commodities Stock Index up 0.2%
Gold Stocks Index down -0.6%
Oil Stocks Index up 0.6% 

By Michael Hevern
Head of Research

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