Stock Market Analysis: Asian Markets Are Expected To Rebound

April 18th, 2011

* U.S. stock markets rose Friday on good inflation figures, rising industrial production and consumer confidence hanging in.  Investors remain cautious as the earnings season continues.
* European stock markets closed higher, despite concerns over the stability of the euro zone.
* Asian stock markets mostly fell Friday after news that Chinese economic growth and inflation had both exceeded expectations.
* Commodities were generally higher Friday.  

The SPI Futures is trading below the key level of 4930, closing up 0.3% (or 16 pts) at 4,879. The key levels for our index this week are 5000 and 4800. The ASX is set to trade higher as we saw markets rise in the U.S. and Europe.  Miners are expected to be in focus today. 

This will be a busy week for corporate data with Woolworths Ltd and Wesfarmers Ltd due to report third quarter sales, while BHP Billiton Ltd, Woodside Petroleum Ltd and Santos Ltd will report their quarterly production reports. 

Crude oil rose again to around $US109 but is still seen as a significant headwind for the economic recovery if sustained at these price levels. The U.S. earnings reporting season continues this week. Investors still need to monitor the geopolitical unrest in the Middle East and North Africa, the Japanese nuclear crisis and European sovereign debt concerns. Also investors need to monitor the Aussie dollar which has again reached post-float highs.

See below for ASX listed companies in the news today.

U.S. Markets

U.S. stock markets rose on Friday on good inflation figures, rising industrial production and consumer confidence hanging in.  Investors were encouraged by the latest round of economic data, although a lower-than-expected profit from Google weighed on the technology sector. 

The market gains followed data showing consumer sentiment rebounded more than expected in early April, while core inflation excluding energy and food prices was below expectations with a rise of just 0.1%.  Elsewhere data showed manufacturing activity in the New York area jumped unexpectedly, industrial production rose to its highest level in 3 months in March and capacity utilisation rose. 

For the week the major market measures fell, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq down for a second consecutive week in the red.  Stocks have been hurt by a disappointing start to the 1Q earnings season and concerns about rising commodity costs. 

Google and Bank of America reported on Friday with profits below analysts’ expectations. Google shares plunged 8.3% as earnings were hurt by surging operating costs, while Bank of America shares fell 2.4%, hurt by a drop in revenue across the majority of its businesses.  Some good news prevailed with Charles Schwab up 2.1% as the broker’s 1Q profit jumped and trading volume climbed, from the previous year where results were hurt by charges.  Shares in toy maker Mattel jumped 4.1% after 1Q earnings fell 33% as expenses rose, but the company benefited from strength in its Barbie division along with merchandise linked to the film Toy Story 3.  In M&A activity Chesapeake Energy said it will buy Bronco Drilling at a 5.8% premium to Thursday’s closing price.

The Dow closed up 0.5% (or 57 points) at 12,341, while in the broader market the S&P 500 index closed up 0.4% (or up 5 points) at 1,320 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq ended up 0.2% (or 4 points) at 2,765.

The ten company groups that make up the S&P index had mixed trading. The Energy sector was up 0.8%, Healthcare was up 0.9%, Materials were up 0.7%, Consumer Staples rose 0.5%, Financials were up 0.1%, and the Technology sector was down -0.2%.

European Markets

European stock markets closed higher Friday night, despite concerns over the stability of the euro zone.  Moody’s Investors Service downgraded the Irish foreign and local currency government bond ratings by two notches to Baa3 from Baa1, just one notch above “junk” status.

The downgrade weighed on the euro, which struggled in the Friday trading session as traders reassessed the simmering eurozone debt problems.  Insurance to protect against a default of Spanish bonds has been creeping up since Portugal bowed to reality and formally requested a bailout from European officials. 

European stocks pared losses after the ECB Vice President said the central bank is prepared to do what is necessary to control inflation, hinting more ECB rate hikes could be coming this year.

In London the FTSE 100 index closed up 0.5% (or 32 points) at 5,996, the German DAX was down 0.4% (or 31 points) at 7,178, while in France the CAC was up 0.1% (or 4 points) at 3,975.

Asian Markets

Asian stock markets mostly fell Friday after news that Chinese economic growth and inflation had both exceeded expectations.  Concerns resurfaced that Chinese interest rates are in for another round of hikes, weighing on some other regional markets.  The Chinese March consumer price index (CPI) showed the fastest inflation rate since July 2008 and was up 5.4% from a year earlier, up from 4.9% in February. The Chinese first quarter gross domestic product was up an annualised 9.7%, down marginally from the fourth quarter’s 9.8% but still above market expectations. 

In India the market lost 1.6%, hit hard as results and forecasts from bellwether Infosys Technologies disappointed investors and India’s own inflation data triggered interest rate worries there as well. 

In Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index ended little changed above the 24,000 level, while in China the Shanghai Composite Index bucked the trend by rising on the session.  Property developers which had dropped in the previous session in anticipation of a jump in March consumer prices rose to lead the rebound. Gold miners in the region traded higher after spot gold hit a fresh record high and is rapidly approaching $US1,500 a troy ounce in Asian trade.

In China the SSE Composite was up 0.3% (or 8 points) at 3,050, while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index was down -0.01% (or -6 points) at 24,008 and in Japan the Nikkei 225 Index was down -0.7% (or -62 points) at 9,592. The South Korean Kospi Composite closed flat. 

Commodities

The Dollar Index was higher at 74.83 on a lower Euro, while the Australian Dollar last traded around record levels at 105.65. Commodities were generally higher.

For the session the Benchmark crude NYMEX for April delivery was up 1.4% (or $US1.55) to settle at $US109.39. Copper for April delivery was down -0.6% (or -2.7 cents) at $US4.2540. April gold was up 0.9% (or $US13.60) at $US1,486.80.

ASX Market News

AJL – AJ Lucas Group, the energy and mining services provider, has won new work valued at $200 million across its drilling and construction divisions.

BLD – Building materials supplier Boral will acquire certain assets and operations of Queensland-based Wagners Group for $173 million.

BXB – Brambles, the world’s biggest pallet provider, has priced a 500 million euro ($A688.8 million) seven-year bond issue.

CNA – Coal & Allied Industries Ltd has maintained its target for full year saleable production to increase by 5 to 10 percent.

ERA – Energy Resources Of Australia CEO reported its NT Ranger uranium mine expansion decision is “very close”, and said he is confident there was a 34,000-ton resource under its existing open pit mine, whose resource is due to run out by the end of 2012.

GXY – Shares in lithium miner Galaxy Resources slumped following the first phase of a capital raising aimed at securing $120 million in new capital.

LEI – Leighton Holdings shares slumped 13 percent to their lowest in one and a half years after announcing a $757 million new share sale and said it would report a full year loss.

NAB – NAB is looking closely at further expansion in the UK, with authorities there moving to force large banks to divest branches.

NXS – Nexus Energy, the oil and gas producer, has raised $57 million from institutional shareholders who took up a renounceable entitlement offer at 40 cents per new share.

NWH – NRW Holdings, the mining services provider, will recommence trading on the ASX after raising $70 million in an institutional share placement.

OAK – Takeover target Oaks Hotels and Resorts has increased its earnings outlook but warned it may take a $5.3 million hit on its Dubai operations.

OZL – OZ Minerals expects to achieve forecast gold production targets for the year even though total gold production fell in the March quarter.

RIO – Rio Tinto’s chairman has warned shareholders that world markets remain fragile, despite many economies having recovered from the financial crisis.

WAN – West Australian Newspapers Holdings has completed a $40 million new share sale at an issue price of $5.20 per new share.
WHC – Whitehaven Coal Ltd, the potential takeover target, says companies have completed due diligence and submitted formal proposals for the company.

Local Corporate Reporting

Challenger Financial Services (CGF)  Q3 2011 Trading statement 

Ex-dividend Date

LDW – Ludowici Limited (10 cents)

Market Summary

ASX – to open higher
US & UK/Europe – EU higher, US higher

US ADRs – Broadly Mixed

BHP down -0.6% & RIO down -1.1%; AWC down -1.2%
ANZ down -2.0% & NAB down -0.2%
NEM  up 0.4%, JHX up 1.3%, NWS up 1.8%

Commodities Stock Index up 0.3%
Gold Stocks Index down -0.8%
Oil Stocks Index up 0.4% 

By Michael Hevern
Head of Research

Written on 18 April, 7:15am

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