Archive for October, 2010

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  • Stock Market Analysis: ASX set for a flat start

    Monday, October 25th, 2010

    Markets Mixed Friday, But Higher For the Week

    US stocks closed generally higher, ahead of another busy week of corporate earnings.   Asian stock markets ended flat, ahead of the G-20 on the weekend. The Chinese market is testing key overhead resistance from a down-trend line that has been in place since mid-2009.  European stocks finished lower on Friday, but up for the week.  German markets remain at fresh 52-week highs.  The ASX is likely to trade flat, as commodities prices were mixed.   There is major US economic data due out this week, including durable-goods orders and gross domestic product.

    The SPI Futures is below the key resistance level of 4720 and the ASX is set to open flat as the SPI Futures closed flat at 4,645.  The key levels for our index this week are 4700 and 4600. M&A activity continues to drive specific stocks.  The ASX is set to trade flat today, with little direction from Europe and the US, and reporting from some Aussie bank majors due later in this week.  Options volatilty is subdued at the moment, which gives investors access to “cheap” protection, so investors may consider taking this opportunity to protect their portfolios.

    US Markets

    US stocks closed mixed Friday, ahead of another busy week of corporate earnings.  There is major US economic data due out this week, including durable-goods orders and gross domestic product.   US stocks fluctuated as improving corporate earnings offset concerns over the prospect of a “currency war” as central banks across the globe race to devalue their domestic curriencies.  Nearly 75 percent of the S&P 500 companies that have reported 3Q results thus far this earnings season have topped analysts’ estimates, but investors remain concerned over currencies and the weak economic backdrop.  Technology stocks were boosted by encouraging earnings from stocks like Riverbed Technology, which makes products that reduce the load on networks (shares surged 18%), Compuware, CA Inc. and Amazon.com also reported earnings that beat analyst estimates. However Amex shares fell as they reported weak demand for new loans, and Verizon disappointed over slowing wireless subscriber growth.  Schlumberger (shares up 5.4%) boosted the energy sector after the oilfield services company’s 3Q earnings more than doubled.  The Energy sector (up 0.7%) and Consumer Discretionary sector (up 0.6%) supported the market, while the Materials sector (down 0.7%) weighed.  The Dow and the S&P 500 closed up for a third consecutive week, with the Dow up 0.6%, while the S&P 500 gained 0.6% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq added 0.4% for the week. The Dow closed down 0.1% (or -14 points) at 11,147, while in the broader market the S&P 500 index was up 0.2% (or 2 points) at 1,183 and the Nasdaq ended up 0.8% (or 19 points) at 2,479.

    European Markets

    European stocks finished lower on Friday, but were up for the week.  In London the market declined, led by the mining companies, after analyst downgrades. On a positive note Betfair surged 19 percent on its first day of trading after raising $330 million in its London IPO.  German markets remain at fresh 52-week highs.  The major issue for discussion at the G-20 was the debate on trade concerns over possible exchange-rate imbalances.  The financiers at the G-20 did agee to “move towards” market determined exchange rates that “refrain from competitive devaluations of curriencies”.  German Economy Minister Rainer Bruederie said that the US Federal Reserve is heading the “wrong way” by “adding liquidity” with monetary easing, as it amounts to a manipulation of the dollar.  For the week German markets rose 1.7 percent, the UK’s FTSE gained 0.7 percent and the French market rose 1.1 percent.  In London the FTSE 100 index closed down -0.3% (or -17 points) at 5,741, the German DAX was flat (or down -5 points) at 6,605, while in France the CAC was down -0.3% (or 8 points) at 3,869.

    Asian Markets

    Asian stock markets ended flat.  Japanese investors were cautious due to the strength of the yen, ahead of the G-20 meeting and this week’s earnings reports.  Technology shares advanced, as LG posted better-than-expected earnings. China’s Shanghai Composite was down 0.3% and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index edged down 0.6%.  Miners and banking stocks led Chinese markets lower on continued profit-taking. Also weighing on banks were concerns over bad loans in the property market following the recent tightening measures.  The Chinese market is testing key overhead resistance that has been in place since mid-2009.  In China the SSE Composite closed down -0.3% at 2,975, while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index was down -0.6% at 23,518 and in Japan the Nikkei 225 Index was up 0.5% at 9,426.

    Commodities

    The Dollar Index was flat at 77.47 on a steady Euro, while the Australian Dollar last traded lower at 98.25.

    Commodities were mixed. Benchmark crude NYMEX for December delivery was flat (or up $US0.03) to settle at $US80.59. Copper prices rose: Copper for December delivery was up 0.4% (or 1.7 cents) at $US3.7915.  Gold prices backed off record highs, and are now around the key $US1,380 level. December gold was down -$8.70 at $US1,317.

    Key News International Drivers Today

    US -  Dow Jones pushes towards 2-year highs. There is major US economic data out this week, including durable-goods orders and gross domestic product.
    EU -   German markets remain at fresh 52-week highs.
    CHINA – China reported its economy grew at a moderate and robust pace in the third quarter. Government stands firm on access to credit.
    JAPAN – Exporters weigh as Yen at 15-years highs.
     

    Markets Overview

     

    Market

    Movement

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average

     Down 0.1% (or -14 pts)  at 11,132 

    The S&P 500                             

     Up  Marginally 0.2% (or 2 pts)  at 1,183      

    The Nasdaq                              

     Up   0.8% (or 19 pts)  at 2,479

     

     

    The FTSE 100                           

     Down -0.3% (or -17 pts)  at 5,741

    The German DAX               

     Flat  (or down -5 pts)  at 6,605 

    The Fench CAC             

     Down -0.3% (or down -8 pts)  at 3,869 

     

     

    The Dollar Index 

     Flat at 77.47

    The Australian Dollar 

     Last traded at 98.25

    The Commodities Index

     up 0.6% at 297.2

     

     

    Crude Oil Futures      

     Flat at $80.59 

    Gold Futures             

     Down $8.70 at $1,317

    Copper Futures             

     Up 0.4% at $3.7915

    SPI Futures              

     Flat at 4,645

     

     

     

     

    Market

    Movement

    SSE Composite (China) 

     Down -0.3%  at 2,975 

    Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong) 

     Down -0.6%  at 23,518

    Nikkei 225 Index (Japan) 

     Up 0.5%  at 9,426


    ASX News Today

    The SPI Futures is below the key resistance level of 4720, and the ASX is set to open flat as the SPI Futures closed flat at 4,645.  The key levels for our index this week are 4700 and 4600. M&A activity continues to drive specific stocks.  The ASX is set to trade flat today, with little direction from Europe and the US and reporting from some Aussie bank majors due later in the week.  Options volatilty is subdued at the moment, which gives investors access to “cheap” protection, so investors may consider taking this opportunity to protect their portfolios. 

     
     
    AHD- Amalgamated Holdings, the entertainment, hospitality and leisure operator, has booked a profit of $60.6 million on the sale of its 49 per cent share of MAF Greater Union LLC in the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
     
    ASX – The Singapore Stock Exchange is expected to launch a takeover bid for the ASX on Monday after both stocks went into trading halts on Friday.

    BHP- BHP chairman Jac Nasser says BHP would pull out of a $US40 billion bid for Canada’s Potash Corp if it proves too expensive.  While Saskatchewan’s premier says the province will not support the bid.

    FGL- Fosters says the Australian wine industry is moving closer towards the end of an oversupply of grapes and wine.

    MAP- MAp says Sydney Airport has increased its earnings by 14.2 per cent so far in 2010 on strong passenger growth, commercial expansion and cost control.

    STO- Santos now has the Australian government’s environmental impact approval for its proposed gas-export terminal.

    TSM- ThinkSmart, the computer and office equipment financier, has launched its “Infinity” consumer finance product in the UK.  Shares jumped 10%.

    WPL- Woodside says 3Q production volumes grew by 5 percent, but sales revenue was down 4 percent on the previous quarter.  They are evaluating the cost and schedule of the $13 billion first phase of its Pluto LNG project.

     
     
    Economic Reports :
    Q3      PPI (Estim. QoQ +0.6% & YoY +1.4%)
    RBA – Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens speaks in Canberra
    Companies:
    Atlas Iron Ltd  (AGO)          September Quarterly Report
    Macarthur Coal (MCC)        September Quarterly Report 

     

    Pacific Brands Ltd (PBG)             Full year 2010 AGM
    TABCORP Holdings (TAH)         Full year 2010 AGM
    Wotif com Holdings Ltd  (WTF)   Full year 2010 AGM
     
    Ex-Dividends
    Austereo Group Ltd (AEO)    Full year 2010 Ex-dividend date
    Halcygen Pharma (HGN)
    Market Summary


    ASX – to open flat

    US & UK/Europe – Mixed
     

    US ADRs –  Mixed

     
    BHP up 0.1% & RIO up; AWC up 1.3%
    ANZ up 0.3% & NAB down 0.5%
    NEM up 0.3%, JHX up 2.4%, NWS down 0.2%
     
    Commodities Stock Index up 0.7%
    Gold Stocks Index up 0.8%
    Oil Stocks Index up 0.6%

     

    By Michael Hevern
    Head of Research
     

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    Share Purchase Plan: Latrobe Magnesium

    Sunday, October 24th, 2010

    Latrobe Magnesium  (LMG)  announced on the 22/10/2010 that they would be conducting a Share Purchase Plan to raise additional capital. The record date was the 21/10/2010 on which shareholders must own the share to participate in the SPP. The closing date is 12/11/2010.  Shares will be issued on 19/11/2010 and begin trading soon after.   A maximum of $7,500 can be purchased by each shareholder at $0.015.

    Discount :  16.7% Liquidity : Poor Profitability : Ok  Stability : Poor

    www.latrobemagnesium.com

    *Note: Discount is based on the closing price on the 22 October 2010.

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    Share Purchase Plan: Cloncurry Metals

    Sunday, October 24th, 2010

    Cloncurry Metals  (CLU)  announced on the 22/10/2010 that they would be conducting a Share Purchase Plan to raise additional capital. The record date was the 21/10/2010 on which shareholders must own the share to participate in the SPP. The closing date is 23/11/2010.  Shares will be issued on 30/11/2010 and begin trading soon after.   A maximum of $15,000 can be purchased by each shareholder at $0.032.

    Discount :  41.8% Liquidity : Poor Profitability : Ok  Stability : Poor

    www.cloncurry.com.au

    *Note: Discount is based on the closing price on the 22 October 2010.

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    Share Purchase Plan: Northern Iron

    Sunday, October 24th, 2010

    Northern Iron  (NFE)  announced on the 13/10/2010 that they would be conducting a Share Purchase Plan to raise additional capital. The record date was the 12/10/2010 on which shareholders must own the share to participate in the SPP. The closing date is 22/11/2010.  Shares will be issued on 29/11/2010 and begin trading soon after.   A maximum of $15,000 can be purchased by each shareholder at $1.58.

    Discount :  -1.0% Liquidity : Good Profitability : Ok  Stability : Good

    www.northerniron.com.au

    *Note: Discount is based on the closing price on the 22 October 2010.

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    ASX Company News: Thinksmart Launches Infinity Finance With Dixons In UK

    Sunday, October 24th, 2010

    ThinkSmart Limited (TSM), a leading international computer and office equipment financing company, launched its new “Infinity” consumer finance proposition in the UK with Dixons, the UK’s largest specialist electrical retailer. Infinity combines the convenience of a consumer rental payment plan, with a fully supported suite of services for the computer shopper and an easy upgrade path to new technology. The product is being supported exclusively through the Dixons Retail group. Dixons operates 683 stores in the UK, which last year generated nearly £1.4bn in sales of computing equipment.

    “Infinity provides consumers the ability to obtain a new computer every 2 years with a compelling value proposition that is unique in the UK,” said Ned Montarello, Executive Chairman and CEO of ThinkSmart Limited. “With Infinity, the customers’ computer is set-up before they leave the store.  They have automatic online virus protection, 24/7 technical support for the duration of their contract and if they ever have a problem with their computer it will be fixed or replaced. “To make it easy for them to stay up-to-date, we will also reimburse them 25% of the original value of their equipment at the end of their term when they update their technology on a new Infinity contract.”

    ThinkSmart’s new Infinity payment proposition with Dixon’s offers the customer more than pure finance. With the customer proposition of being able to access a new computer every 2 years, Infinity offers the UK computer shopper the ability to have a new laptop or desktop PC selected from the UK’s largest range; No upfront cash out-lay, just 24 fixed monthly payments; The computer is fully set-up and operating before they leave the store and includes; 2 Years on-line protection against viruses and threats from Norton 360 Gold; 2 Years product protection through Dixons’ Whatever Happens including cover for damage caused by mishaps; 2 Annual PC Tune Ups to keep the PC serviced and running smoothly; 2 Years technical help and support delivered 24 / 7 through Dixons’ Tech Friend service; and 25% of the PC’s original purchase price as cash back at the end of 2 years if the customer chooses to upgrade to the latest equipment. If the customer upgrades, with Infinity they will also have all their data transferred onto their new computer, as well as the old computer being cleansed of all data before disposal.

    ThinkSmart is a leading international financial services company in the delivery of point of sale finance products through the retail environment. The business currently operates with market leading retailers and financial institutions in Australia and New Zealand, and the UK, Spain, Italy, and France where it has built a reputation for processing high volumes of low value business finance transactions both quickly and efficiently. ThinkSmart’s products fill the gap for consumers and small business customers  between a credit card and bank loan, enabling them to get on-the-spot approval for technology they need via a tax and cash flow friendly rental payment plan.

    www.thinksmartworld.com

    http://www.traderdealer.com.au/Fundamentals/tsm

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    ASX Company News: Mastermyne Group Secures XStrata Coal Contract

    Sunday, October 24th, 2010

    Mastermyne Group Limited (MYE) issued a market update to confirm that it has secured a new contract with Xstrata Coal’s Oaky Creek operations to install underground conveyors for the next 3 years. In addition to the new works Mastermyne has also opened its Underground Training Facility in Mackay in response to the growing demand for skilled labour to support the ongoing growth of the business. The training centre is a strategic initiative to develop a source of semi skilled labour to work on Mastermyne projects. The centre is the only one of its kind in Australia and offers trainees the  opportunity to familiarise themselves with the underground environment before commencing on site.

    Managing Director Tony Caruso said “the training that the trainees receive will ensure that they are familiar with the safety tools utilised in our operations and that they will receive the basic introductory skills needed to reduce personal injury risk and reduce the safety risk to Mastermyne and their customers. The centre also ensures that the trainees are more productive sooner. He also said that this again demonstrates the difference between Mastermyne and its competitors as an organisation that delivers solutions to complex issues. The result of the new project and the opening of the training centre ensures that Mastermyne is well placed to deliver on its prospectus forecast numbers and also provides strong visibility into FY 12 and beyond. Mastermyne’s Managing Director Mr Tony Caruso said that Mastermyne continues to experience strong demand for its services and has maintained a  strong pipeline of opportunities to win work at existing mines already in production.

    Mastermyne Group Limited (MYE) was established in 1996 and is a leading provider of specialized services to the Australian coal mining industry. It has three operating divisions, Mastermyne Underground (underground roadway development, installation of conveyors and longwall relocation), Mastermyne Engineering (design and engineering of specialised mining equipment and consumables) and Mastermyne Services (surface electrical,mechanical and maintenance services). Based in Mackay Queensland, Mastermyne has operations in Queensland’s Bowen Basin and the Illawarra and Hunter Valley regions in New South Wales.

    www.mastermyne.com.au

    http://www.traderdealer.com.au/Fundamentals/mye

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    ASX Company News: MCM Entertainment Partners With Ten Network

    Sunday, October 24th, 2010

    Mcm Entertainment Group’s (MEG) movideo division announced that it has partnered with Network Ten to deploy its new generation Online Video Platform across the Network’s broadcast brands, including the offerings on TEN, ONE and the soon-to-launch ELEVEN.

    Network Ten’s selection of movideo follows an international competitive tender. TheTEN Digital team and the movideo team will work in partnership to enhance Network Ten’s online video strategy and deliver a solution that drives optimum consumer engagement with its broadcast brands online. movideo is the Online Video Platform developed in Australia by mcm. movideo has powered mcm media’s online proprietary music video and audio streaming service Digital Entertainment Network (DEN) for the past two years. Using movideo, DEN is now the largest music audio visual streaming platform in Australia other than YouTube. movideo now supports DEN to deliver 7.2 million video, audio and advertising files to around one million users every month via mcm’s sites and syndication to partner sites. TEN’s Video Hits site is also implementing DEN for music video streaming as part of the integration of the  movideo platform into TEN Digital.

    “We are thrilled to be partnering Network Ten with movideo. We believe we have developed a world -class Online Video Platform and winning a global tender for Network Ten is a wonderful endorsement.  movideo is very active across the region and we will soon be announcing new partnerships in the Asian media and marketing sector,” mcm entertainment group CEO Tony McGinn said. “Online video streaming across all platforms and devices is all about consumer engagement and that is what is at the heart of the movideo product,” Mr McGinn added. Network Ten Chief Digital Media Officer Nick Spooner said: “This is an important strategic partnership for us. The movideo platform and team demonstrated the best capabilities and skills to support our growing online video offering. With movideo, we’ll be developing new functionality and next generation video and advertising capabilities to take our premium video offering to the next level.

    www.mcmentertainment.com

    http://www.traderdealer.com.au/Fundamentals/meg

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    Stock Market Analysis: Australian Markets – The Next Catalyst

    Friday, October 22nd, 2010

    The Australian markets have had a great run in the past couple of months, but the wary trader should be looking to identify leading indications of any turnaround in investor sentiment. In this article we examine inter-market interaction for possible indicators of what lies ahead.

    One such indicator is the Aussie dollar, which has finally reached parity against the US dollar. It’s strongly correlated to commodities prices and has been surging since May this year. The Aussie dollar’s strength and the corresponding US dollar’s weakness have driven commodities prices higher, underpinning the performance of our resource stocks. These in turn have been the driving force for our markets since the recovery began back in March 2009.

    The surging commodities prices have driven domestic and overseas investments in our resource stocks, particularly in our second-tier miners which offer significant growth potential. However, with the exception of the consumer staples sector, all our other market sectors have been underperforming. This leaves the Australian market susceptible to a pullback if the mining sector falters.

    Ahead of the G-20 meeting the US Treasury Secretary, Timothy Geithner, said the major currencies are “roughly in alignment now”, suggesting there is no need for further US dollar weakness. This may trigger a change in market fundamentals near term, with traders and commodities speculators enjoying a free ride on the back of the weakening US dollar.

    A move away from the weak US dollar policy will mean that the Aussie dollar is set to pullback. Let’s take a look at what this means to commodities and our stock market performance.

    The Big Picture

    Over the past decade there has been a strong correlation between the strength of the Aussie dollar and the Aussie market as shown below: the Australian market is shown in red and the Aussie dollar in blue.

    Comparison performance of Aussie Market (red) and the Aussie Dollar (blue)

    It is worth noting that the last time the Aussie dollar was around parity was back in mid-2008. At that time the markets fell sharply once there was a turnaround in the US dollar’s strength, which continued until the bottoming of the markets in March 2009.

    In recent times there has been a divergence in the relationship between our market and the currency which has lasted a few months. Historically any divergence has been resolved within 4 to 6 months, either by the Aussie dollar weakening or the Aussie market strengthening.

    Inter-Market Relationships Since the Global Financial Crisis

    Since mid-2008 there have been two clear periods of divergence prior to now. The first was in late 2008 which was resolved in the ultimate market bottom of the GFC in March 2009. The second was in early 2010 where the ASX200 continued to rise but the Aussie dollar failed to make new highs. This resulted in the sell-off in April this year.

    Aussie Market and Dollar performance since the GFC bottom.

    Aussie Market and Dollar performance since the GFC bottom.

    Over the past few months the Aussie dollar has surged, but the market has failed to participate in the bullish sentiment. As noted previously, historically any divergence has been resolved within 4 to 6 months, either by the Aussie dollar weakening or the Aussie Market strengthening.

    The Commodity Currency

    The performance of the Aussie dollar is closely tied to the price of commodities, as shown below. This relationship has held tight since the GFC. The CRB Commodities Index, illustrated below, comprises an index of a basket of commodities.

    Performance Comparison Between Aussie Dollar and the CRB Commodities Index

    Performance Comparison Between Aussie Dollar and the CRB Commodities Index

    The Aussie dollar is referred to as a commodity currency, because our economy is so dependent on the export of commodities and is frequently bought up when investors look to add risk to their portfolio.

    Conclusion

    The Aussie market is being driven by the performance of our resource stocks which we highlighted in our recent Quarterly Market Performance Review. The other market sectors (with the exception of the Consumer Staples sector) are all underperforming.

    We have shown in this article that market relationships and thereby investor sentiment may be due for a turnaround. The divergence in the performance between the Aussie dollar and the Aussie market will need to be resolved within the next 6-8 weeks, as there appears to be an imbalance between the bullishness over the Aussie dollar and the performance of the share market. The comments from the US Treasury Secretary suggesting there is no need for further US dollar weakness may be the trigger for a change in market fundamentals near term, as this will hurt commodities prices and in turn our miners and stock market going forward.

    Look for leading indications that may result from a number of catalysts in the US markets in the next few weeks which could trigger a change in investor sentiment. These include: Corporate Earnings, the G-20 Meeting, the US Fed FOMC meeting, Quantitative Easing (QE2) and the US Federal mid-term elections.

    Stay tuned for further analysis of prospects for the Aussie market. Next time we will examine the Australian market’s performance with relation to the US milestone events and Chinese influence.

    By Michael Hevern
    Head of Research

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    Stock Market Analysis: Weekly Market Wrap

    Friday, October 22nd, 2010

    Weekly Market Wrap – US Dollar is in Focus

    The Aussie market has been treading water this week but we are still constrained within the 4550 – 4700 trading range. The Aussie dollar reached parity but has backed off slightly since and commodities have backed off record levels.

    Ahead of the G-20 meeting the US Treasury Secretary, Timothy Geithner, has said that the major currencies are “roughly in alignment now”, suggesting there is no need for further US dollar weakness. This will weigh on commodities prices near term, demonstrated by the pullback in the gold prices this week.

    Overseas markets have generally traded higher this week on the back of the US Fed Reserve’s promise of a further round quantitative easing (QE2), better-than-expected corporate earnings, Chinese GDP data that showed that its economic growth remains robust, and the forecast of improving growth in Germany.

    US Markets

    US markets are trading near 2-year highs as investor sentiment continues to be buoyed by the prospect of a further round quantitative easing (QE2) and better-than-expected corporate earnings. The surprise Chinese rate hike initially triggered a sell-off, but upon reflection was seen as a sign of strength of the global economy from a number of blue chip companies. Financial sectors continue to underperform due to their regulatory issues and tech stocks continue to report well as corporates look to IT for productivity improvements in the jobless recovery.

    The US dollar remains in focus this week and may be setting itself up for a turn in fortunes near-term, particularly following the comments from Mr Geithner. Overnight, the sectors supporting the markets included the Industrials (up 0.8%) and Consumer Discretionary (up 0.6%), while the Materials, Energy and Financial sectors ended flat for the session. The Dow closed up 0.4% at 11,147, while in the broader markets the S&P 500 index was up by 0.2% at 1,180 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq ended up 0.1% at 2,460.

    European Markets

    European stocks are finishing higher this week. Germany has reached fresh 52-week highs as the economy minister forecast that Germany could expect growth of 3.4 percent this year, rather than 1.4 percent as projected in April. The German economy is critical to the performance of the eurozone and has been driving the economic recovery out of the GFC.

    In London the minutes of the BoE rate meeting showed that some policy makers saw an increasing likelihood that further monetary easing will be needed. This allowed the market to recover from early losses.

    The euro is still hovering around 8-month highs at $US1.40. Overnight in London the FTSE 100 index closed up 0.5% at 5,758, the German DAX was up 1.3% at 6,611, and in France the CAC was up 1.3% at 3,877.

    Asian Markets

    Asian markets ended the week mixed. The key drivers for Asia came out of China this week as the market reached fresh 6-month highs. The news began with a surprise quarter-point interest rate hike by the Chinese central bank (the first increase since December 2007), which initially triggered a sell-off in equities and weighed on risk assets globally with fears that the world’s fastest growing economy could dampen global growth. Upon reflection investor sentiment turned, suggesting that the rate hike indicated a strong Chinese economy.

    Yesterday Chinese stocks declined after data showed the Chinese economic growth slowed moderately in the third quarter as inflation rose, with the 3Q GDP rising 9.6% (but down from 10.3% from the previous quarter) and CPI rising to 3.6% – the highest level in 23 months. The data supported the surprise rate hike by the Chinese government as it continued to withdraw stimulus and took measures to cool sectors such as the property market. Banks and brokerage houses led losses in China as investors took profit.

    Tokyo stocks continued to fall, led by exporters and currency-sensitive stocks that are being hurt by the yen being at 15-year highs.

    Yesterday in China the SSE Composite closed down -0.7% at 2,984, while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index was up 0.4% at 23,649 and in Japan the Nikkei 225 Index was down -0.1% at 9,376.

    Commodities

    The lower US dollar will drive base metals prices near term. The comments from the US Treasury Secretary suggesting there is no need for further US dollar weakness will no doubt play out next week. Gold has given back 2 weeks of gains as it retraced from the record levels of $US1,384 last week. The Fed’s QE2 is yet to be implemented, the next FOMC meeting is on 3 November.

    Overnight, commodities were lower due to the stronger US dollar. Benchmark crude NYMEX for December delivery was down -2.3% to settle at $US80.67. Copper prices fell as Copper for December delivery was down -0.3% at $US3.7755. Gold prices backed-off record highs, with December gold down -1.5% at $US1,323.20.

    ASX News

    The Aussie market has been trading sideways this week and is still constrained within the trading range between 4550 and 4700. The big story for the week was the Aussie dollar’s parity with the US dollar, closely followed by James Packer’s corporate raid on Ten Network (he now holds an 18 percent stake). The Aussie dollar has backed off its highs and the gold price has been sold off this week. BHP remains committed to its hostile takeover of Canada’s Potash Corp, and investors and banks are watching the RBA for comments relating to interest rates ahead of their November meeting (Melbourne Cup Day).

    Our View

    Overseas markets continue to perform well with the US nearing 2-year highs, Germany at 52-week highs and China at 6-month highs. Commodities prices have backed off record levels, led by gold. The ASX may suffer if the US Treasury Secretary has his way with stemming the US dollar weakness, which could hurt commodities prices and in turn our mining stocks. Investors should monitor the US dollar’s performance as a leading indicator for a change in sentiment near term.

    The S&P ASX200 is currently trading around 4620 and is near the middle of its current trading range. The key levels on the ASX are still around 4720 and 4,550. China, QE2 and the US dollar will be key for next week’s performance.

    By Michael Hevern
    Head of Research

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    Trading Book Review: Sniper Trading

    Friday, October 22nd, 2010

    Sniper Trading – Essential Short-Term money-Making Secrets for Trading Stocks, Options and Futures

    Author: George Angell
    RRP $82.95

    Trading book review by Janene Murdoch from the Educator Investor Bookshop

    Sniper Trading provides important lessons and key investment strategies for trading stocks, options, and futures and helps readers fine-tune their trading to the point where they know exactly where the market will go and when it will get there.

    With thirty years of experience, George Angell shows readers how to trade successfully on a consistent and informed basis. Sniper Trading is a complete guide to trading everything from stocks and options, to futures. Readers will discover how to price trading, identify buy and sell zones, place spread or seasonal trades and most importantly, learn how to win at trading by overcoming common pitfalls and mastering common learning curves.

    Angell offers the individual trader the inside track on his most successful investment strategies, so they can profit like the professionals.

    This book is available from the Educated Investor Book shop. If you would like to order this book please visit The Educated Investor Bookshop website.

    By Janene Murdoch
    Educated Investor Bookshop

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