Stock Market Analysis
EU Stress Relief and Strong US Earnings Push Markets Higher
U.S. stocks rose on Friday amid better-than-expected corporate earnings and in Europe the Bank “stress tests” delivered few surprises.
The SPI Futures is above the key level of 4400 the ASX is set to open higher as the SPI Futures closed up 0.9% (or 40 pts) at 4,476.0 (up 0.8% for the week). Miners and Consumer Discretionary stocks should lead rises today. Key levels this week are 4550 and 4350, with pivot around 4400. M&A activity continues to drive specific stocks.
US Markets
U.S. stocks continued higher Friday, as the giant conglomerate GE reported better-than-expected and increased its dividends. This helped the S&P 500 push above the key level of 1,100. for the first time this month. According to a Bloomberg survey in the U.S., about 85 percent of companies in the S&P 500 Index that have reported results since 12 July have beaten analyst earnings forecasts.
The key performers included Industrial, Materials and Consumer Discretionary all up around 2 percent on the session. Rio, the world’s third largest mining company, rallied 11 percent, while big brother BHP Billiton, advanced 8.5 percent for the week. Copper was a star performer, rising every day last week as shrinking inventories signaled an improved outlook for demand. The positive sentiment was broad-based with 4 stocks rising for every 1 that fall, on the NYSE.
The Dow closed up 1.0% (or 102 points) at 10,425 (up 3.3% for the week), while in the broader market the S&P 500 index up 0.8% (or 9 points) at 1,103 (up 3.9% for the week) and the tech-heavy Nasdaq ended up 1.1% (or 24 points) at 2,269 (up 4.1% for the week).
European Markets
European stocks advanced. 7 of 91 banks failed the ECB Bank “stress tests”, fewer than expected, but analysts questioned whether the tests were tough enough, as the tests only showed $US3.5 billion needed to be raised to prop up capital adequacy. Previous estimates ranged form $75 to $85 billion would need to raised. Only time will tell whether ECB’s hope of easing fears over any impact from the euro zone debt crisis will be realised. Positive earnings reports from Fiat to Apple reassured investors that the global economic recovery is intact amid signs the region is weathering the sovereign debt crisis. The UK economic data was also positive showing the economy grew at the fastest pace in four years in the second quarter as rebounding services, manufacturing and construction ignited, supporting the bullish sentiment. In London the FTSE 100 index closed flat (or -1 points) at 5,313 (up 3.0% for the week), the German DAX up 0.4% (or 24 points) at 6,166 (up 2.1% for the week), while in France the CAC was down marginally 0.1% at 3603 (up 3.3% for the week).
Asian Markets
Asian markets rose for a third week, with the exception of Japan who have their concerns of the impact of a stronger Yen on their export economy. The Shanghai Composite finished nearing a three-week high, led by rising commodities prices and the strong U.S. earnings reporting season. In China the SSE Composite closed up 0.4% (or 10 points) at 2,572 (up 6.1% for the week), while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index was up 1.1% (or 226 points) at 20,815 (up 2.8% for the week) and in Japan the Nikkei 225 Index was up 2.3% (or 210 points) at 9,431 (up 0.3% for the week).
Commodities
The Dollar Index up 0.2% at 82.46 on higher Euro, while the Australian Dollar last traded higher at 89.55 (up 3.6% for the week). Commodities were generally higher (up 1.8% for the week).
Oil prices surged as stock markets rallied and investors reacted to a possible storm threat for oil operations in the Gulf of Mexico. The benchmark crude NYMEX for September delivery was down 0.5% (or $US0.50) to settle at $US78.89 (up 4.6% for the week). Copper prices are trading above the key $US3.00 a pound, Copper for September delivery delivery was up 1.1% (or 3.4 cents) at 3.1950 a pound (up 9.4% for the week). Gold was flat, with August gold was flat at $US1,195.10 an ounce (up 0.5% for the week) .
Key News International Drivers Today
US – S&P 500 companies continue to report earnings this week.
EU – M&A activity. Bank “stress test” results had no surprises, but there are concerns over results.
CHINA – Commodity prices and Property developers rise, on speculation the government may ease policies.
Markets Overview
ECB Stress Relief and Strong US Earnings Push Markets Higher
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Market
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Movement
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The Dow Jones Industrial Average
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Up 1.0% (or 102 pts) at 10,425
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The S&P 500
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Up 0.8% (or 9 pts) at 1,103
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The Nasdaq
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Up 1.1% (or 24 pts) at 2,269
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The FTSE 100
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Down Marginally 0.0% (or -1 pts) at 5,313
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The German DAX
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Up 0.4% (or 24 pts) at 6,166
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SSE Composite (China)
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Up 0.4% (or 10 pts) at 2,572
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The Dollar Index
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Up 0.2% at 82.46
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The Australian Dollar
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Last traded higher at 89.55
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The Commodities Index
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Down Marginally -0.09% at 266.6
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Crude Oil Futures
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Up 0.5% at $78.89
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Gold Futures
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Flat at $1,195.10
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Copper Futures
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Up 3.4 cents at $3.1950
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SPI Futures
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Up 0.9% (or 40 pts) at 4,476.0
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Market
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Movement
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SSE Composite (China)
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Up 0.4% at 2,572
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Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong)
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Up 1.1% at 20,815
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Nikkei 225 Index (Japan)
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Up 2.3% at 9,431
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SPI: Above key Level 4400 – SPI up 0.9% at 4,408…
ASX News Today
The SPI Futures is above the key level of 4400 the ASX is set to open higher as the SPI Futures closed up 0.9% (or 40 pts) at 4,476.0 (up 0.8% for the week). Miners and Consumer Discretionary stocks should lead rises today. Key levels this week are 4550 and 4350, with pivot around 4400. M&A activity continues to drive specific stocks.
ABQ- Allied the franchise owner and operator again lowered profit guidance for the second time in six weeks. Share fell 15%.
AGK- AGL Energy has successfully transferred some of its debt to the US market as part of plans to extend its debt maturity and diversify its funding sources. They priced $US300 million of unsecured notes in the US private placement market. The funding will come from two tranches of 12-year and 15-year maturities for $US165 million and $US135 million.
CBA- says its funds under administration declined slightly during the June quarter as local and international shares fell.
GRR- Grange the iron ore miner will dispose of two non-core assets so it can focus on its main business.
LEI- Leighton the mining contractor has made a private debt placement in the US. They priced a US$350 million private placement of maturities ranging from five- to 10-year notes.
MAP- reported a double-digit increase in earnings for the 1H10.
NAB- faces Law firm Maurice Blackburn soon filing class action against NAB for failing to disclose its exposure to $1.2 billion worth of collateralised debt obligations (CDOs).
SHL- Sonic confirmed its latest full year earnings guidance and said its US operations achieved 2H10 organic revenue growth of 3.6 per cent.
WPL- Woodside reported a fall in production in 2Q 2010, but higher commodity prices boosted revenue by almost 50 per cent.
Economic Reports :
Producer Price Index for Q2 (forecast QoQ 1.1% from 1.8% and YoY 6.6% from 7.8%).
Expect to see our market trade higher today, after stress relief after European bank “stress test” results presented few surprises.
Market Summary
ASX – to open higher
US & UK/Europe – higher.
US ADRs – Broadly higher!!!…
Commodities Stock Index up 1.2%
Gold Stocks Index up 0.4%
Oil Stocks Index up 1.2%
By Michael Hevern
Head of Research