Stock Market Analysis: US Earnings Give ASX a Positive Lead Today

July 21st, 2010

Stock Market Analysis

US Earnings Give ASX a Positive Lead Today

Overseas markets were mixed with the US reporting season helping US markets to continue to rise, while Europeans were cautious ahead the European bank “stress tests” results due Friday.

The SPI Futures is above the key level of 4400 the ASX is set to open higher as the SPI Futures closed up 0.9% (or 41 pts) at 4,423.  The RBA minutes were released yesterday saying that the uncertainty over the European debt issues have helped keep our interest rates on hold, however the future direction of interest rates will be driven by the inflation figures due out on 28 July.  Our market should continue to trade firmer again today after good performances from the U.S. and our mining and industrial sectors yesterday.  M&A activity continues to drive specific stocks.  Key levels to watch today are 4500 and 4350, with pivot around 4400.

US Markets

Investors chose to concentrate on the good news overnight as earnings reports were mixed.  Apple, the key NASDAQ stock, once again exceeded expectations with a 78 percent surge in 3Q profits, and sales were up 61 percent. This result indicates that the consumer is still alive in the U.S., however on the flip side Yahoo disappointed with revenue falling and sales down 8 percent (YoY) as they face competition from Facebook and Google. Also disappointing were IBM, Texas Instruments, Johnson & Johnson and Goldman Sachs. Goldman Sachs reported its 2Q profit plummeted 83% to its lowest level since late 2008, as trading revenues declined 36%, which was much more than forecast. Traders sentiment improved late in the day on speculation that the U.S. may be considering a new stimulus package. The Fed chairman Ben Bernanke will address the Senate tonight. The Materials and Energy sectors continued higher up 3% and 2.3% respectively.

The Dow closed up 0.7% (or 76 points) at 10,230, while in the broader market the S&P 500 index up 1.1% (or 12 points) at 1,083 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq ended up 1.1% (or 24 points) at 2,222.

European Markets

European markets finished the session lower for a fourth session. The weaker-than-expected US housing data continued to weigh on sentiment, also Goldmans disappointing results hurt. The results of the European bank stress tests are due 23 July.  In London the FTSE 100 index closed down marginally -0.2% (or -9 points) at 5,139, the German DAX down -0.7% (or -42 points) at 5,967, while in France the CAC was down -0.50% (or 18 points) at 3468.

Asian Markets

Most Asian markets rose yesterday, with the exception of Japan. The Shanghai Composite appears to be holding support at current levels and jumped another 2.2% as banking, property and consumer stocks rose on hopes that the government may not introduce more restrictive policies after several indicators showed last week the economy was cooling. This helped our mining sector.  In China the SSE Composite closed up 2.2% (or 53 points) at 2,529, while in Hong Kong the Hang Seng Index was up 0.9% (or 174 points) at 20,265 and in Japan the Nikkei 225 Index returned from a holiday and was down -1.2% (or -108 points) at 9,300.

Commodities

The Dollar Index up 0.3% at 82.79 on lower Euro, while the Australian Dollar last traded higher at 88.30 The Commodities were generally higher.

Crude oil prices rose as traders eye potential tropical storms in the Caribbean and falling US stockpiles.  The benchmark crude NYMEX for August delivery was up $US0.90 (or 1.2%) to settle at $US77.44. Copper prices are trading above the key $US3.00 a pound, Copper for September delivery delivery was up marginally 2.1% (or 6.4 cents) at 3.0015  a pound.  Gold was higher, with August gold up $US9.80 to settle at $US1,191.70 an ounce.

Key News International Drivers Today

US – Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke to address the Senator tonight. 129 S&P 500 companies will report earnings this week.

EU – M&A activity. Bank “stress test” results on the 23 July.  .

CHINA – Bargain hunting continues, on speculation the government may ease policies.

Markets Overview

Overseas Markets Give Negative Lead for the ASX

Market

Movement

The Dow Jones Industrial Average

Up 0.7% (or 76 pts)  at 10,230

The S&P 500

Up 1.1% (or 12 pts)  at 1,083

The Nasdaq

Up 1.1% (or 24 pts)  at 2,222

 

 

The FTSE 100

Down  Marginally -0.2% (or -9 pts)  at 5,139

The German DAX

Down -0.7% (or -42 pts)  at 5,967

SSE Composite (China)

Down -0.5% (or 0 pts)  at 36.0

 

 

The Dollar Index

Up 0.33% at 82.79

The Australian Dollar

Last traded at 88.30

The Commodities Index

Up  Marginally 0.12% at 261.5

 

 

Crude Oil Futures

Up 1.2% at $77.44

Gold Futures

Up  Marginally 0.01% at $1,191.70

Copper Futures

Up  Marginally 0.02% at $3.0015

SPI Futures

Up 0.9% (or 41 pts) at 4,423.0

 

 

 

 

Market

Movement

SSE Composite (China)

Up 2.2% at 2,529

Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong)

Up 0.9% at 20,265

Nikkei 225 Index (Japan)

Down -1.2% at 9,300

 

 

ASX News Today

The SPI Futures is above the key level of 4400 the ASX is set to open higher as the as the SPI Futures closed up 0.9% (or 41 pts) at 4,423The RBA minutes released yesterday saying that the uncertainty over the European debt issues have helped keep our interest rates on hold, however the future direction of interest rates will be driven by the inflation figuures due out on 28 July. Key levels today are 4500 and 4350, with pivot around 4400.  Our market should continue to trade frimer again today after good performances from the U.S. and our mining and industrials sectors yesterday.  M&A activity continues to drive specific stocks.
AQP- Aquarius Platinum dispels fears it will be forced to change mining methods at its operations in South Africa after it was sold-off on concerns that any changes could involve higher costs.
 

BHP- will release its June quarter production report today.

BNB – the liquidator’s examination of Babcock & Brown continues in the Federal Court.

CEY- Centennial says Banpu which has made a $2.5 billion takeover offer for Centennial, has received approval from the Bank of Thailand for it to remit foreign currency to pay for deal.

CTY – Country Road the embattled fashion retailier expects a 20% drop in annual profit due to aggressive discounting in the retail sector and the startup costs of its new 40 plus brand.

CWN- Crown the gaming firm has government support to expand the number of pokie machines at Perth’s Burswood casino.

ILU_ Iluka the mineral sands miner reported its June quarter production fell following the closure of its WA operations, but sales volumes were up strongly in 2H10

MTU- Shareholders of the telecommunication services provider M2 Telecomm can expect healthy returns, according to the company’s earnings guidance for 2010/11. Shares rose 20 cents to $1.92.

PDN- Paladin the uranium producer is considering taking over NGM Resources.

POS – Andrew Forrest’s nickel explorer Poseidon Nickel is in a trading halt pending a capital raising.
SDL- Sundance the iron ore explorer reports that a definitive feasibility study for its Mbalam project in Cameroon is on track for completion this year. Shares were up 3 cents to $0.15.

WOW- Woolworths will release its fourth quarter sales result today.

Economic Reports :

Westpac-Melbourne Institute reports the May Indexes of Economic Activity
Expect to see our market trade firmer today. M&A is picking up.

Market Summary

Westpac-Melbourne Institute reports the May Indexes of Economic Activity
Expect to see our market trade firmer today. M&A is picking up.

Market Summary

ASX – to open higher
US & UK/Europe – mixed.

US ADRs –  Broadly higher!!!…

BHP up 4.7%  & RIO up 5.6%; AWC up 6.2%
ANZ up 4.1% & NAB up 4.0%
NEM up 1.7%, JHX up 5.0%, NWS up 1.8%
Commodities Stock Index up 2.8%
Gold Stocks Index up 2.2%
Oil Stocks Index up 1.4%
By Michael Hevern
Head of Research

 


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