Archive for January, 2009

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  • Friday 23rd January 2009 MDS Morning Wrap

    Friday, January 23rd, 2009

    Presented by Michael Hevern
    MDS Financial

    Click here to watch the presentation.

    or

    Click here to download the mp3 audio recording (980Kb).

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    In this morning’s wrap:

    World Indices

    Dow down 1.3% – still above 8000 psychological level

    • Bank of America down 15%

    S&P 500 down 1.5%

    NASDAQ DOWN 2.8%

    • Good news from Google; job cuts and poor results from Microsoft
    • Blackberry getting free advertising from President Obama

    FTSE down 2%

    • Public spending for Olympics to reach 461 million pounds
    • Disappointing earnings for BT; Barclays down 10%

    NIKKEI down 1%

    Hang Seng up 0.6%

    Commodities
    Oil down 0.8% – still above $40 mark ($43)
    Gold up 0.3% ($858)
    Silver up 1%

    Local Index
    SPI down 24 points overnight

    • traders and investors not expected to hold over the long weekend

    ASX News
    Wesfarmers rights issue
    Telstra resignation
    OZ Minerals
    Newcrest dropping productions

    ADRs
    BHP down 3.7%
    Rio down 2%
    ANZ down 6%
    NAB down 1.7%
    Alumina down 1.7%

    Gold stocks index down 1%
    Oil stocks index down 2.3%

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    Pawnbrokers cashing in

    Thursday, January 22nd, 2009

    The financial crisis is good news for pawnbroking chain Cash Converters, which has reported a 15% increase in sales over the last two months.

    A report in The Australian today describes how increased rents and the flagging job market are forcing many consumers to be more discerning in their purchases, and seeking out near-new items at pawnbrokers is becoming a more attractive option.

    A Cash Converters spokesperson says the company has not seen a dramatic rise in the number of people seeking to sell goods, but that this would be monitored closely in the next few months.

    Fashion and homeware label Country Road is also bucking the downward trend of the retail sector, forecasting a 70 80% rise in first-half net profit.

    Unfortunately though, these results are standouts in an otherwise bleak outlook for the sector.

    Stock for your watchlist:

    CCV Cash Converters International
    CPR Clive Peeters
    CTY Country Road
    DJS – David Jones
    HVN Harvey Norman
    TRS The Reject Shop

    Further information:

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,24945644-5013404,00.html

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,24945106-5018018,00.html

    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,24945008-5018018,00.html

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    Thursday 22nd January 2009 MDS Morning Wrap

    Thursday, January 22nd, 2009

    Presented by Michael Hevern
    MDS Financial

    Click here to watch the presentation.

    or

    Click here to download the mp3 audio recording (906Kb).

    **************************************************

    In this morning s wrap…

    World Indices

    DOW up 3.5%, bounces above 8000

  • Financials and Energy recover
  • Citigroup, Bank of America, JP Morgan, IBM, American Express all up
  • Volume above average
    .
    S&P 500 up 4.3%

    NASDAQ up 4.4%

  • following higher than expected profits reported by Apple and IBM
  • Intel to cut 5000+ jobs
  • .
    FTSE down 0.7%

  • Unemployment figures worst since 1997
  • .
    NIKKEI down 2% – at support level 7900

  • Toyota now the world No.1, beating General Motors
  • Government report of rapidly worsening economy
  • .
    Oil up 8.2% – above $40 mark ($44)

    Gold: down 0.4% ($854)

  • Mixed picture for rest of the commodities
  • .
    SPI up 46, above the critical 3450 level

    ASX News:

  • BHP slashing 6000 jobs
  • WES debt negotiations and capital raising
  • DJS cuts jobs, poor Christmas sales
  • NAB at 11yr lows, concern about UK exposure
  • Banks may bounce
  • Energy stocks to rise
  • Short Selling ban extended to March 6, 2009
  • .

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    What s Hot – Volatility to predict the markets

    Wednesday, January 21st, 2009

    Volatility Spikes

    Volatility has been white hot in the past three months. We have highlighted the impact of volatility on market movements in previous reports. The volatility index (VIX) is referred to as the fear gauge and has been at historic highs in recent months.

    The market movements of late have been comparatively subdued over the Christmas and New Year holiday period. This is mainly due to the lack of interest of both traders and investors (as evidenced by the very low daily volumes). The chart below shows the typical end of quarter push that happened at the end of December.

    The VIX spikes have coincided with significant turnaround moves in the S&P500 and consequently on other world markets. Trading volumes are now starting to pick up and as can be seen in the chart below, volatility is also on the up. This chart illustrates that the market is taking time to work out its volatility see the highlighted areas indicating the rapidity of the timing of the spikes in mid-October to mid-November and the easing of volatility since mid-November.

    In the period from mid-November to now we have seen the market recover with a corresponding lowering of volatility from the high 80 s to the 40 s. What this means is that traders are now more prepared to hold positions, while at the same time they are hedging all or part of their holdings.

    SandP 500 Chart

    Figure: Volatility and the S&P500 Market

    Market Drivers

    Bear Market – We continue to experience a bear market and any rallies should be treated as relief rallies in a down trending market.

    Economics – The US has been reporting some abysmal economic data in the past week, with unemployment up to 7.2%, US Financials stocks are again at 52 week lows.

    Stimulus – The US Government having spent around to $US8 trillion in bailouts, is yet to see signs that the stimulus from all this money, being realized in the form of increased activity in the economy.

    TARP – The new Obama administration will be inaugurated on the 20th January. Obama has highlighted his eagerness to implement the bulk of the TARP monies by the end of January, he may find some political hurdles with this timetable.

    Corporates - The US corporates are starting to fess up to their woes of the past year, as the quarterly reporting period gets underway. Note the bulk of the S&P500 constituents report towards the end of January.

    Volatility will be on the rise again. This translates into markets heading lower, we will be watching keenly a number of levels, in particular the 50% retracement level of the recent rally from mid-November and if that fails then the mid-November lows will be key to any market support. On the upside we would be looking for a weekly close above at the highs of early January.

    What to Expect Now

    Money can be made in this market on the long side, but traders and investors need to be very careful on their timing and their time in the market. Typically markets trade in ranges of approximately 30% over the course of the year. Surprisingly this held true for last year too, with the S&P500 closing down just over 31% for 2008 calendar year. However, the market fell 48% from the peak in May to the trough of mid-November (refer to the chart below). We have since seen a stellar recovery from mid-November lows to the highs last week (up 27%).

    S & M 500 Trading Ranges Chart
    Figure: S&P500 2008 Trading Ranges

    The market for 2009 will be a traders market, money can be made but traders and investors must be disciplined, taking profits when available and protecting capital by honoring stops. Keep in touch with the markets through the MDS Research Service.

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    In The Engine Room Predefined Watch Lists

    Wednesday, January 21st, 2009

    Predefined Watch Lists
    Remembering all the relevant codes for international indices, commodities or Forex can be challenging and how do you identify the largest companies on a particular exchange? The answer lies in predefined watch lists. Predefined watchlists save time and experience by quickly identifying the relevant companies or indices to focus on when making trading decisions. Predefined watchlists are included in both the Bourse and Market Analyser.

    Predefined Watch Lists in Market Analyser
    The watchlist facility provides you with an instant outlook on the current activities of your chosen list of securities from World Markets. You can choose from watchlists that are already defined or create your own. You can customise the information displayed to suit your trading needs. Watchlists that are available in the Bronze version of Market Analyser provide delayed data only; this is designated by a red stripe down the left of the screen. Gold and Platinum versions have the ability to add live data to multiple watchlists with information displayed live during the trading day.

    To open a watch list Click Menu, Quotes, click Watchlist

    You can change the watchlist you are viewing by using the drop down arrow to select a predefined watchlist.

    Watchlist Wizard

    If this is not enough choice then you can select from a wide variety of predefined watch lists using the watchlist wizard.

    Select the list of shares you wish to monitor from the list available.

    MArket Analyser Watchlist Wizard - Introduction

    Market-Analyser-watchlist-wizard-countries

    Once you have the watchlist open you can view a chart with a double click on any code. A click on the blue arrow at the top of the chart (NextXCode) allows you to scroll through the watchlist.

    Predefined Watch Lists in the Bourse
    Bourse comes with some predefined watch lists that you can view data through immediately. These watch lists represent the top 20 and top 100 ASX companies, some commodities, forex, and other international stocks and indices.

    To open one of these watch lists, simply click on the watch list icon on the tool bar or select the Quotes menu and select the My Watch lists menu item.

    A watch list window will appear. Click on the watch list name selector drop down list and you will see some of the default watch lists. Click on the list that you want then click on the Request button.

    Some of the lists available are:

    World Indices List, US Stocks List, Forex1, Key ADRs (the Aussie companies that trade on the US market) and the ASX Top 20 companies.

    Select the list you wish to view and then you can view charts by clicking on the relevant code in the watch list. Ensure SyncOn is activated before you do this.

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    Old Dog new tricks – Crude Oil, 2009 Outlook

    Wednesday, January 21st, 2009

    The interrelationship between the greenback, crude and bullion has historical roots from the original pricing and sale of Crude Oil from the Middle East, which was originally swapped for Gold until OPEC officially agreed to sell exclusively in US dollars.

    Since this time Oil and Gold have generally moved the together in terms of price, with a positive price correlation over the last 50 years for more than 80% of the time. The price of oil in terms of gold ounces has averaged about 15 barrels per ounce. At current levels this indication alone would suggest that either Gold is overpriced, or Oil is trading at a discount of around $20 a barrel.

    1. Crude Oil


    Crude Oil broke out of its long term $10 – $40 trading range in 2004. Within two years the price reached an all time high of $75 before pulling back to $50. Within the next 12 months, the price went from $50 to $150. An exceptional move! At this stage just about every analyst suggested that Crude Oil would exceed $200 a barrel in no time. However between July and December 2008 the market dropped from $150 or so to $46, taking out significant support at the $50 price level. The next big support is the 2004 breakout level at $40 which we are currently testing.

    On the ride up the fundamental story was a bit like this: We are at peak oil levels. Most OPEC and many non OPEC producing countries have reached their peak production levels in Crude Oil. The easy oil is gone, production will decrease over time as less and less oil is available. The remaining oil is more difficult and more expensive to extract. The worldwide Crude Oil demand is rising rapidly, as countries like China and India industrialise and need more crude oil for transportation and power generation. Supply is tight, demand is increasing thereby leading to higher and higher prices.

    Watching stories today the tune has certainly changed. We have too much Crude Oil around. Due to the financial crisis worldwide, less energy is needed for transportation (less trade, shipping rates are falling like a stone due to decreasing demand). We have more than enough Crude Oil still in the ground. There is no peak oil as yet. We have abundant supplies. The improvements in technology make it economical to extract oil which a few years earlier could not be extracted efficiently. Crude Oil prices will stay low for the foreseeable future.

    What the outlook for Crude will finally be I cannot say with any degree of certainty, however I do know that the trend in Crude Oil is down, the momentum is down so we are more likely to make money trading the short side. You may have heard reports recently of positive returns generated from Hedge funds or Commodity Trading Advisors who focus on the global futures markets. These funds predominantly run trend following models which track a defined trend in the market and ride the trend until it fails. At current levels the trend has stalled and we may be seeing a reversal, equally plausible however would be for another leg down in the price of Crude. Time will tell and having the capability of trading the trend when it does eventuate is certainly an opportunity well worth exploring.

    2. Gold
    Gold has certainly offered a shelter to the financial troubles of recent times, booking gains over the last 8 consecutive years. The fundamentals for the precious metal remain strong and we would expect its appeal to continue given the pressures likely to impact the US dollar in the coming months/years. In times of distress and we are certainly there, it is often a good solution to take a look at the long term picture and as with Oil, trade on the side of the momentum trade with the trend.

    3. US Dollar

    Looking at the US Dollar Index (which measure the value of the US Dollar against a basket of currencies), it has been in a downtrend since 2001 forming a low midway through 2008 around 72. The US currency then rallied from an August low to the recent highs of around 90 (dollar index) defying fundamental logic. The reason given for the rally was that US fund managers liquidated (mostly overseas positions) to meet investor redemptions and repatriated the funds. They sold the foreign currency and bought US Dollars. This increased the demand for US Dollars on a short term basis and the price went up, quite dramatically.

    In a desperate attempt to avoid disaster the Federal Reserve has lowered interest rates to virtually 0. Although overseas interest rates are also falling they are falling at a lesser rate than in the US. With interest rates close to 0, investors are now less inclined to hold US Dollars and will convert them back into overseas currencies thus contributing to the fall in the Dollar Index. The negative fundamentals of the US economy and the huge problems facing the country will prevail and I believe we will continue to see further price retracements and this is not taking into consideration if the Oil was changed to be priced in the Euro s.

    Conclusion

    Gold, Oil and the US dollar will remain volatile in the near term. There is a good chance the greenback will rise in the short term, before fundamentals will take over, while Crude looks set to continue to slide or remain flat at least. Gold looks set for a pull back, however its outlook will be closely linked with the move in the US dollar. As the Greenback pulls back we would expect this to benefit the price of Gold. To take advantage of the trading opportunities these markets create call our trading desk on 1300 65 90 90.

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    Message From The Chief – January 2009

    Wednesday, January 21st, 2009

    As the manager of a financial services company I always read a selection of finance related magazines to let me catch up on market and company news. This month I found the title and subsequent content of a Money Magazine article slightly amusing, “The Best of the Best”:

    BT WINS BEST PERFORMING AUSTRALIAN SHARE FUND – ONLY LOST $34,600**

    If ever you needed a reason to manage your money yourself, this article provided it. The best performing Australian Equities manager for 2008 was the BT Imputation Fund, which returned negative 34.60%.

    I can imagine the fund manager s marketing people telling me about the fantastic return and the market outperformance of the index, but if you had 100k invested in this “best performing fund” you just lost over 34k in 12 months. The other catch phrase that gets played a lot in the managed fund and financial planning industries is that you should look at your returns over the longer term in this case the before mentioned fund returned 3.82% per annum over three years less than a CMT over the same period.

    WHAT WOULD THE MANAGED FUND SALESMAN SUGGEST?

    Buy and hold is the financial planning industry s new mantra. However with all of their projections for your retirement based on historical returns you really need to be on the ball yourself when considering the hold and hope approach. If anybody has had a projection done by these magical calculators in the last 12 months I would be interested to hear from you: how does their projection of your position at the end of 2008 tally with your actual position?

    Financial planners tend to think of fund management as an industry for those without the time or knowledge to make their own investment decisions. With these poor results however, I would suggest individuals make the time to become better informed of the options available and of what is happening to your investments, with a view to taking more control over where your hard earned money gets invested.

    I have read a lot of books in my time about making money and retiring rich, but the only people that I have seen achieve these goals from managed funds are either the fund managers themselves or the big institutions that back them.

    BUT IS IT THE FUND MANAGERS FAULT?

    Now, I am not saying the fund managers are entirely to blame. There are a number of factors contributing to the industry s recent poor performance, namely the government s inflexible approach to the way the funds management business can go about offering investment products to the public, and the financial planning industry s continued reliance on the ongoing commission gravy train reducing your chance of hearing from a planner that you should redeem you managed fund and invest directly.

    So, for the 1.74% you pay in management fees for the fund that you paid 4% to enter what exactly are they allowed to do, and why is it not largely their fault that you lost your money? Simple – the most money that the fund manager is able to have in cash at any point in time is a maximum of 15% – they are obliged to have 85% of your money in the market, even when the share prices are plummeting.

    In the last 12 months none of us were going to pick the market s high but when things took a heavy downward turn, would you have kept all of your cash in the stock market? Probably not, but if you were one of the investors in these funds managers there was no choice. Using a simple stop loss methodology of 5% could have saved you a lot of money.

    Of our 6,000 customers I am sure that a large percentage of you would have investments either directly or indirectly in managed funds. My suggestion would be make it part of your new year s resolution to review your funds performance and assess the effect these funds are having on you future wealth and think to yourself, if I was managing this money myself what return would I achieve?

    Now instead of going on about the inefficiency of the fund industry I m going to develop a strategy I would implement as a new investor with 50k, or as one that was having trouble identifying a winner in 2008. Part One of this strategy will be delivered next month.

    I wish you all the best with your investing in 2009.
    Damian
    ** based on an investment of 100k.

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    Market Analyser Updates – January

    Wednesday, January 21st, 2009

    Having an extended Christmas/New Year break, our development team have returned with a focus on moving The Bourse and Market Analyser data sources to a common environment for handling both market data and orders. Further news and previews will be published in the coming months.

    Other development has been focused on Trader Dealer and improving the process involved in signing up a new account and fixing a few bugs in the Market Analyser, which should be included in the next release.

    Craig Foley – CIO

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    Who s who in the Zoo Gary Howells

    Wednesday, January 21st, 2009

    Gary Howells Web Development Team Leader+

    Gary has 10 years for experience in the IT industry in a range of fields including software design, development and support, hardware development and support, and networking. As a Software and Web Developer, Gary has worked on projects with the department of defence (AMRL), rapid response emergency teams, and educational institutions, and from 2007 with MDS Financial Group. Since joining MDS, Gary has immersed himself in the various technologies utilised in-house and worked to develop quality solutions for MDS clients using the best technologies available.

    Here is a little more about Gary;

    Here is a little more about Gary;

    • What drives you? New technologies
    • What work activity brings you the most satisfaction? Using new technologies and discussing new ideas.
    • What are the challenges you face every day? Ensuring the best outcome for clients using the right technologies, exceptional communication, and method of delivery.
    • What key skills do you have to support the business? Development knowledge, business acumen, strong customer focus and results driven.
    • Who are the most important people in your life? Family and my girlfriend
    • What is your favorite past-time? Anything that brings a smile to my face.
    • What movies do you enjoy? Action / Comedy
    • What animal best describes your character? Monkey :P
    • What person would you like to meet and why? Richard Branson, I have read quiet a few of his books and I think he would be inspirational
    • Favorite Movie? Top Gun
    • Favorite Football team? Collingwood / Manchester United
    • Coolest place you have been on holiday? Prague
    • What sort of car do you drive? Why? Holden Astra CDX, because it is reliable, inexpensive to run and environmentally better than a lot of other cars on the market.

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    Research Survey – Competition Winner Dec 2008

    Wednesday, January 21st, 2009

    Congratulations to our winner of the Research survey for the month of December, who has won a 6 month subscription to either MDS Financial Research or Market Analyser.

    Research Competition Winner Dec 2008

    To enter the competition all you need to do is to take a FREE trial of MDS Financial Research for 14 days and complete the survey after the trial, including your favourite finance related joke. Winners will be announced in the monthly Reflections newsletter. Click here to take a FREE trial of MDS Financial Research.

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