Preseneted by Michael Hevern
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Good Morning and welcome to Cube Wrap for Thursday the 27th of November. I am Michael Hevern for Cube Financial.
The information provided within this presentation is general advice only and you should consult the services of a financial professional in order to ascertain whether the information is applicable to your investment strategies and risk profile. Again, it is general advice only.
Well, Dow took another slide this morning pushing its head up against that downtrend line and managed to close above that and is down 5% and lot of that selling was down in the last out trading. We saw the autos weigh. The Fed has revised the quarter figures up to 7.5% for 2009 that was up from 5% the previous 6 months. This concern about the visibility, volatility, and buyers down. US market finished at 12.5 lows and 98% of the volume that was traded was traded to the downside, so that all were 0.2, further weakness seen in the market.
We see that the NASDAQ was down 5% as well and we also saw yahoo gets sold down and it was closed to 20% with down 2 dollars on the session. Very nice technical move for the last 10 days and it is not very good for the world as it steadily controls and also trekking the low out of that which can continue for sometime.
Elsewhere in the US, the key stories were that the Feb are releasing minutes for their previous meeting, saying that they are open to more rate cuts, we will see how that unfolds. US trying on construction and consumer prices dived with October highs starts stumbling to ripple low from 4.5% is easily adjusted and US consumer prices take the biggest months in 61 years, dropping 1% to significantly adjusted 9%.
The autos exerts in Washington at the moment trying to get the hands on some of the bailout package money and also trying to get all of it as soon as possible. We also see that the standard portraying industry saying that they haven’t risen to 4.2% for September shooting a new high and the average is 3.9% for the third quarter.
We also saw that there was investing concerned about the 700 million dollar package not being enough to stabilize the markets going forward and that may be even more impotence for getting holds of more money going forward. We saw Citigroup shared 14% to that level since 1995, and financials sent its way liberally with the financials with the index down 7% on the session.
In the NASDAQ, we saw Apple down 4%, Microsoft down 7% and Cisco down 8% on the session. The FTSE in the UK was down close to 5%. It is below the mid levels of that support level that it managed to hold for those days, but it closed below that on the close. We saw energy pulled back considerably on the back of that gain, so that had previous session. The Bank of England has also said that they are open to more and more rate cuts and will continue to cut as necessary.
Energy stocks, we see BP, Shell, and BG group all down between 3.5% to 6% on the session on the back of oil prices. We saw banks better yet again as J.P. Morgan has slightly turning customers.
On the UK banking sector, we see HSBC down 9%, Barclays down 13%. We see Lloyds down 9% as well. Investors were also sold down almost 10% as Lloyds bank cutting price tag and going forward. The miners weren’t spared either all down in between 12% and 18% on the session. That’s not going to go very well for our miners either.
The CAC was down 4% and the DAX was down 5% on the session. Chemical stocks is a big story in Europe as BASS said it will temporally shot down 80 plants world wide and production of another 100 plants as it announced that its profits was sliding and so that may be some excuse as to why articles sold off so heavily yesterday. We saw BASF plunge 14% on the back of that news and elsewhere stocks were also under heavily selling pressure in Europe.
We see that in Asia, the Nikkei did perform too bad and is down 0.7%. Exporters suffered on the back of stronger Yen, but banks did come under pressure as financial group was reportedly to raise about 4.1 million dollars going forward and weighted on the other financials as well with Mitsui down 6% on the session.
Elsewhere in Asia, we see that Hong Kong was down 8.8% and Chinese shares are also down over 6% on the session. We see that in the commodities market that oil continues to slide looks like it’s going to test the flowing trend line there at a 22-month lows. The inventories have risen in the US for the eight straight weeks so that continued to give pressure on the oil price. Gold was fluctuating somewhat due to the weaker US dollar, but it could be some fairly flat as 735 on the session. Doesn’t really know which way to go there you can see on the chart, it is just trading in the top range and it does break outside and it will be fairly exposing. We are unsure as to how long that will take to be with being in there for approximately twenty trading days at the moment, so you expect it to be closing atone way or the other.
We see that in the ASX our market was down and finished below the 3500 level obviously with testing that down trend line again. Interestingly was SPI was down 165 and around about 4% overnight and so that’s not very good for our markets and we saw broad-based selling in the ADRs as well. We see AWC and Alumina down 17% on the session. The insurer AIG was down 20% in the US.
BHP and RIO were down 10% and 11% and Chevron and Exxon which were up previous session with both down 3.8%. Gold stocks index was down 6% and the oil stocks index down 5.6%. We also see that in gold miner in the US is down 5% on the session. Our markets we see that all the commodities are down as well with silver down 3.5, aluminum down 2%, lead down almost 6%, copper down 4.3%, and nickel down 5%, and zinc down 4%. But it is worth saying that analysts are predicated Zinc will be in for a short coming rally in the next few sessions so that we need to watch.
In news in our market we have the removal of the short selling ban in our market yesterday and as expected we saw the bear step in there continued to be in the news. Macarthur Coal came up said that they are expecting their Iron or Coal to fall in the next 12 months based on the back of lower world steel production, so that was lots of that will be affected there will be the other coal miners also. The steel makers in Australia such as CSR have risen to 315 million dollars, but it was at a discount to the uploading price. Oz minerals have responded to ASX queries and have announced a profit warning they were sold down heavily yesterday. Babcock and Brown are going through yet another restructure selling and asset sales in attempt to appease their bankers and BHP due to announced project confirm that they are going to proceed that market was down especially since the reduction has made, were not sure what the cost will be and were going for a lower economic demand, you will expect that the demand on that facility will actually be ascending at the moment but I guess you need to look at the big picture and they have actually promised the miners that will expand the port facilities so it will be interesting to see how that proceed. Telstra futures goes out of escrow today and we expect that market to open tomorrow with broad-based selling there is a special report that wave published and you can read reports on stocks you should be wary of.
Should you have any questions about the information provided within this presentation, please call the equities options desk of the CFD advising desk on the numbers provided, as always trade carefully.
By Michael Hevern
Transcription below: ***************************************************
Good Morning and Welcome to Cube Wrap on Tuesday, the 25th of November, I’m Michael Hevern for Cube Financial. The information provided within this presentation is general advice only and you should consult the services of a financial professional in order to ascertain whether the information is applicable to your investment strategies and risk profile. Again, it is general advice only.
Well, the Dow had another stella run up another 5% overnight on the back of the Citi bailout seen as too big to file. We see economic data was still negative though and the session was fully dominated by the news of Citigroup. We also had Obama, the President US saying that the US must act swiftly and wildly in order to confront the economic crisis of historic promotions. He also nominated his economic team as well, which was seen as a positive going forward and it is unusual the President does announce his team so early, but given the economic situation, it was seen as a necessity to the US. We also saw that existing hand sales were down.
Another drop of 3% for October and the media house prices fell 11% in larger stock market record. We also saw that the Chicago Fed index was showing signs of recession yet again. It did rise to 91%, but they also revised the September figures down 3 points. We also saw that the Dallas manufacturing index was down yet again, but it fell to minus 21in November and that is from -13.7 in October, so fundamental news is still bad in the US market obviously.
The bailout of Citi is seen in positive across the country and also worldwide. We see that the bailout of Citigroup is somewhat of a lesion that the US government has learned from allowing early this year the major financial institutions to go past including Lehman Brothers as well as the failure of Washington Mutual figures US saving somewhat, so we saw that the Bank of America rise 19% and Morgan Stanley up 22%.
Goldman Sachs was also up 23% and Citi was up 50% on the back of the rescue package, so it is pretty much driven by the financials in the US. We see that also in the broader market that was up as well 6.5% breaking that resistance there and actually close above that resistance the month since early November. We also see that is supposed to get 2-day gain and the market hasn’t been able to sustain since early October.
We see in the NASDAQ that it was up 6.3% and again breaking out that downward sliding channel and actually close the above that was a good sign.We see that the rally continues in stocks like Apple and Microsoft.
Apple up 12%, Microsoft up 5%, and also Cisco was up 8% so all the stocks were all up in that market. We also saw that Xerox forecast 2009 profits generally inline with expectations. They are the biggest supplier in digital printer and document management services, so that was seen as a positive and that were up 7% to 8% on the back of that. In the UK, we saw surge there up 10%, biggest one-day gain on record.
It managed to close above that psychological 4000 level and as we see here that that bounced off that downtrending line there. Financials led the way again here with Royal Bank of Scotland up 7%, HSBC up 4%, Barclays up 10%, and we saw Lloyd and HBOS up 18% and 17% respectively. Insurers also surged as well with prudential up 20%, Aviva up 9%, and Legal & General up 10% on the session.
The miners were also backing further with Kazakhmys, BHP, and Energy Natural Resources all up between 22% and 28% on the session. That is well for out mining stocks today. We also saw the retailers get a boost from that pre-budget with Marls & Spencers and Kingfisher all up between 7% and 10% on the session. Cisco was also up 5% and 8% on the session. Also in Europe, the CAC and the DAX were both up 10% and 11% respectively.
The NIKKEI was close for yesterday. The oil price moved up above 60 dollars. We can see that it’s the first time that it’s closed above that downtrending moving average for loss since early November and that was on the back of just general positive return to confidence for the investor. We also saw gold actually spiked though, it was up again up 821 dollars on the close, up 6% on the session. We see that elsewhere in commodities, we see silver up 9%, copper up 6%, lead up 2.7%, zinc up 2.7%, aluminum up 3%, and nickel up 7% on the session.
We also saw the stock commodities 7% and 4.7% respectively. So we see on continuity of the spike and today, we see their heads up in what is happening there, we are breaking out that downtrending channel. SPI closed up 132 on the session and we have obviously a positive lead for out market today. Elsewhere in news in out market, Sun raised it’s forecast which didn’t help the share prices today and the concerns about the impact of the storms up in Queensland and the price of the share price had been down 3% for the day. Babcock and Brown have extended their decision to Thursday still negotiating with their banks at the moment trying to stay business.
Telstra is showing determination right to the end and has 36,000 for that looking a fit for the news across the broadband.
It is a 4.7 billion dollar government facility and they are saying that they are not going to put a break forward until they get guarantee that the government wants to develop on the back of the successful bid for that new infrastructure. Fortescue was up yesterday up and again energy and gold are likely to jump today as well as financials also here is obviously going to be higher on open and fairly well based.
Should you have any questions about the information provided within this presentation, please call the equities and options desk or the CFD advice desk on the numbers provided, and as always trade carefully.
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Click here to download the mp3 audio recording (1359Kb).
Good morning and welcome to Cube Wrap for Friday, the 21st of November. I am Michael Hevern for Cube Financial.
The information provided within this presentation is general advice only and you should consult the services of a financial professional in order to ascertain whether the information is applicable to your investment strategies and risk profile. Again, this is general advice only.
Another dismal day on the Dow overnight, down another 5.6%, retracement continues here and we can see that’s it’s continued to start drifting down below that down trending line and support, really some there, in fact through the October lows and next level support is the slightly downtrend line that we have which is quite some way away.
We do have the autos still fleeting in Capitol Hill for a rescue package since the falling on deaf ears they’re still talking about the Capitol Hill. They are at 5-1/2 years lows on the Dow and the multitude of concerns at the moment is at increasing, volume is increasing along the downward side.
We see that S&P500 was also down, broken through key support levels there. It is below 1997 lows around those lows and again it is on increasing volume and we do have the trick with the options index, futures options and the futures options all expired on the same day. So this again apparently got to add more to the volatility levels there. We see top new stories Senato pushed to compromise bailout package for automakers. So, there are still concerns there about the automakers going forward. Bank of America CEO says that the crisis is a global recession and there is no chance of a turnaround until at least the next year. I think that is even being optimistic. JP Morgan is to lay off another 3000 jobs in the investor making on and then new crisis around at 10% of the banking staff and commercial mortgages and equities are set to double in 2009. The futures has noted that the index has resumed to 75 from 51 in previous year.
We also saw that financials weighed on the US with Citi falling another 17% and Bank of America falling 5.4% on the session. The autos did state somewhat of a recovery with GM and Ford up on hopes that they may get a bail out package sooner or later. The time is running up for them. We see that the NASDAQ and Hi-Tech index was down 3.8% as well. We see this is tracking nicely that downtrending channel there, getting close to the lower edges of that channel. We see that there was board-based selling in the NASDAQ. We saw Apple, Microsoft, and Cisco all down 27 and 4%.
We also see that in the UK, the FTSE was down 3.3%, again those downtrending lines offering good guidance of where the market is going to. It actually touched that downtrending line last night and finished above that. This is good guidance as to where the market is going forward which is positive. We see materials down and banks are mixed. Bank of England also said that they are willing to cut rates nearly as necessary. We saw Eurasian, natural resources, and Xstrata all down to 27 and 14% on the session and life insurers were sold off after there little spite yesterday with Aviva down 17%, Prudential down 16%, and legal and general down 13%.
Banking stocks were mixed with Royal Bank of Scotland up 8.8% as the investors or share holders made their own plan to take a merge of the government rescue package there for raising capital to raise the capital. Lloyds and HBOS were up 5 and 12% respectively as their ongoing merger continues. Barclays were sold off low with down 1.5% as share holders continued to discount the share price going forward because of the way that they raise their capital recently. Elsewhere in Europe, we see that the CAC is down 3.8% and the DAX was down 3% on the session.
In Asia, we see that market down as well, Nikkei down 7%, sent to test the lows of October and it was on the back off stronger Yen which hurts the exporters over there. Banks was sold down heavily as well to fetch the 61% decline in second quarter profits and we also saw Sumitomo, Japan’s number 3 bank, saying it was to raise 2.9 billion dollars and preference issue. Mitsui was 6% on the session as well, Mitsubishi was 6% on the session.
We also saw the Mitsuo down 6% to a 3 week low and exporters of motor companies, Mazuzu, Honda were all down 16 and 6% respectively. Other exports High Tech exporters were down 9% and TDK down 12% on the back off slowing economic growth and the stronger Yen. Canon was also down 7%, Panasonic down almost 8% and Sony also was down 6% on the session. Elsewhere, we see that Hong Kong shares were close down 4% and Chinese stocks actually were close down 1.6%. They have been heavily earlier in the week.
We see that in oil, that price got below 50 dollars in the trading session that managed to close just above at 51 dollars over 22 month lows. The inventories for US were up for 8 straight weeks which we did report yesterday and obviously that is going on the market seen as a oversupply of the product at the moment.
Gold, above the trend, it was up 7 to 7.50. It was up around at 1.5% and finished just near that 750 mark. We see that elsewhere in commodities, silver was down 3%, aluminum down 5%, lead down 3.5%, copper down 3% and nickel down 3% while zinc was actually up 0.6%.
In our market, yesterday as expected the SPI was down again 163 point. We are looking to price support there on the downtrending line, but if you believe in being over sold the we must be getting close to that given that we pullback just about everyday since about the 5th of November that you can see on the chart. We are tracking that downtrending arrangement as well.
Of interest in the US, in the ADRs, BHP was down 13%, RIO down 12%. We see the gold stocks index down 3.5% and the oil stocks index down almost 12% on the session. We see Chevron and Exxon down 9% and 6.5% respectively. The Banking ADRs were also down with ANZ down 9% and NAB down 6% on the session. So pretty broad-based negativity over there and that we would expect that to fly onto to our market. The US do have short trading week next week. Just added to the volatility, we have Thanks Giving at the end of next week, so that will probably add to the volatility in tonights session.
In the ASX, the additional news we see that SUN was up significantly yesterday. On speculation that they make selling there, making division. Coal producers were downgraded by almost yesterday and we could see that price. Miners were likely to way on the back of lower commodity prices overnight, Babcock and Brown are on the brink of foreclosure as they desperately speaking with there banking backers as they need more time to pay the 3.1 billion dollars worth of debt. Telstra are facing industrial election in the next couple of days, so that could be interesting so the pay and conditions going forward and we expect our market to open more, again broad based selling will prevail.
Should you have any questions about the information provided within this presentation, please call equities option desk or the CFD trading desk on the numbers provided and as always trade carefully.
By Michael Hevern
Cube Financial Group
I have updated MDS Radio with a new recording covering the XJO, DJI and the ASX Top 20.
Click here to watch the presentation.
ASIC announced that it would lift the current ban on short selling of non-financial securities from opening of trading on 19 November 2008 but would continue the ban on covered short sales in financial securities. ASIC put a 30-day ban on covered short selling of securities on 21 September 2008 and extended this ban on 21 October 2008 as market conditions remained difficult.
The ban on short selling of financial securities will remain in place until at least 27 January 2009, consistent with many other jurisdictions, while ASX will maintain the ban on naked short selling indefinitely. ASIC confirmed that financial securities would be those comprising the S&P/ASX 200 Financials (including property funds) plus five other APRA regulated businesses.
What Does this Mean for the Stock Market?
The ban was imposed to stop the market falling, however it appears to have been ineffective. On the day the ban was imposed the ASX 200 closed at 5020. This one day jump caused some investors a fleeting moment of joy, but since that time the market has fallen to 3748 at the end of last week and is lower again this week. In fact the market is down over 25% since the ban was imposed.
Some may say that short selling is the fuel that can kick start a strong rally once the bottom has been reached. As short sellers cover their shorts to lock in profits this can catapult the market off the lows and allow it to push higher. But the question remains, when the bottom will occur, as it has appeared to be reached more than once during the last year. The news flow at present is extremely down beat with job cuts, bankruptcies and recession dominating the media. As far as the economy goes it is likely to get worse before it gets better, however you must remember that the stock market will recover 6 12 months before the economy does.
Existing Short Positions
Investors were able to hold existing short positions through the short selling ban, but were unable to open new positions. It is unlikely that the lifting of the short selling ban will encourage any of the investors that remained short during this time to alter their positions.
On the other hand do not believe that because the ban on short selling the market will now fall through the floor, which was their reason for imposing the ban in the first place. It is unlikely that there will be a flood of short sellers into the market once the ban is lifted just as imposing the ban did not stop the market falling in the first place.
Which Shares and Sectors are Most Vulnerable to Short Selling?
While financial shares in Australia are more robust than their US counterparts they are still likely to be hit by a down turn in the economy as their profits fall. The cause of this drop will be rising loan defaults as overstretched consumers and businesses struggle to make ends meet. In addition to this lending growth will slow due to tighter credit criteria and lack of confidence on the part of borrowers. The ban on short selling these shares remains in place, so it is likely that there will be no significant impact on these shares with the lifting of this ban.
With the economic slow down likely to continue for some time yet consumers are likely to tighten their belts further. One of the first sectors to feel this will be the Discretionary sector of the market, which includes your retailers, tourism and fast food. Car retailers and appliance retailers are likely to be particularly hard hit by a drop in sales and profit margins as consumers delay purchase of big ticket items. Tourism is also likely to be impacted on both a domestic and an international scale as people put off unnecessary travel.
Some Sectors Likely to Come Under Pressure
We have reviewed some key market sectors that are likely to come under pressure in the likelihood of weakening economic demand and reduced earnings going forward.
The sectors we have highlighted here include:
Paper & Packaging
(Fundamental data is as of close of business 17 Nov 08)
The stocks within these sectors have been highlighted because they:
have deteriorating fundamentals
are generally in strong down trends
have broken key support levels in the past week
Other Areas of Weakness
Regardless of the sector that the company is in there are other companies that are likely to suffer as the economy slows down. Any company that has high debt levels is more likely to struggle as their income drops away and it becomes more difficult for them to service their debt. Refinancing loans in the current environment has become very difficult due to the lack of available credit and the freezing of the credit markets. Any company with significant loans to be refinanced is likely to attract short sellers.
Debt Laden Stocks
We have investigated the market for you and identified some key stocks that are likely to come under further pressure now that the shorting ban has been lifted. The filters that we have used identify:
1) ASX200 Stocks with Negative Cashflows and Debt/Equity over 80%
and trending down.
2) ASX200 Stocks with Debt/Equity over 80% and trending down.
Note that generally all of the stocks highlighted are in strong down trends.
(Fundamental data is as of close of business 17 Nov 08)
Which Shares and Sectors are Likely to be Ok?
For the Healthcare, Utilities and Staples sectors it is more likely to be business as usual as people continue to buy food, power and medical services. A recession is likely to have less impact on these areas than on items that are not seen as essentials to everyday living. People will not delay eating, or put off medical procedures because of the economic environment. These sectors are less likely to attract short selling interest.
Imposing a short selling ban, and removing the same, will not make a significant difference to the markets overall. It is unlikely to be the catalyst for a sharp fall in the market (the market is already doing that) or a sharp rebound either. The Consumer Discretionary sector is likely to be most at risk from the removal of the short selling ban. In addition to this any company that currently has a high debt exposure or the need to refinance existing debt obligations is also at risk.
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…Or, how granting wishes can turn your financial frown upside down!
Last Sunday I was watching the news and saw a great piece about the Starlight Children s Foundation and a local aero club doing their bit to grant the wishes of young kids. The piece finished with a Starlight director stating that the Foundation is aiming to grant 182 seriously ill children with a wish before Christmas, which is going to set them back a million bucks!
With the current state of doom and gloom around the world, issues like increasing unemployment, dropping equity prices and the ever-present shadow of terrorism dominating our attention, it is all too easy to forget about the profound troubles that some families around us are going through.
And that got me thinking about a little thing I m sure you have all heard of – karma. If you go to the Wikipedia page – the source of all truth – you can find out all you need to know but basically karma is all about cause and effect, and how your past actions can have an effect on your future.
With this and the current market conditions in mind, I came to the conclusion that generating some good karma might be a prudent step for the astute investor as well as being a great thing to do!
So, rather than finding one person to stump up the million I have developed a plan which will enable us all to help Starlight achieve its goal, and it goes a little something like this:
Step One getting the ball rolling.
So how are we going to help Starlight raise $1 million? It s a numbers game.
So 65% of 7,500 x $20 = 4,875 donations
Already we ve reached $97,500!
Time spent = 10 minutes
Get involved: click here to make your contribution.
Step Two recruit your friends
That s a great start, but wait! There s more:
Money raised = $195,000
Time spent = 10 minutes
Our total contribution is now up to $292,500!
Click here to make your contribution.
Next: Exponential Momentum!
From that point on, the power of the internet can take over. If every person who donates to Starlight also forwards this email to five other likely donors, the momentum will really pick up and the potential contribution to Starlight s campaign is limitless!
Wow, could it be that easy?
Just like investing – unless you are testing and learning you will never know how successful a strategy can be. Even if we only reach $10,000 we will be making a substantial contribution to what Starlight can achieve, and of course, improving our karma!
Now that you know what has to happen, start by making your own donation: here.
Act immediately! Don t do later what can be done now, and don t forget to forward this article to five friends when you re done. If your boss catches you on the website donating and has a problem with it, drop me an e-mail email@example.com with your boss s name and phone number and I will try and make them see reason.
So do I believe in karma?
I guess the real question is do I live my life by karma? The answer would be “not really” but I do know that if you contribute money to the Starlight Children s Foundation and they grant a wish that makes a kid have a brighter Christmas what is the worst thing that could happen?
When your good karma bears fruit let me know by posting a comment on our blog: http://blog.mdsfinancial.com.au
Speak to you next month when I will return to the normal update.
Chief Operating Officer
P.S. Get your company involved!
If you know or are part of a company that has a large e-mail database like MDS Financial that regularly communicates with its clients, it will only take 20 minutes to send a similar e-mail to this. I know big companies often have designated charities that they donate to and committees for these things to run through, but be spontaneous – ask the question of those in charge, send that e-mail and see what happens.
P.P.S. It s all above board.
To reassure the cynics, neither MDS Financial nor me personally are collecting any data or receiving a financial benefit of any sort from your generous contributions. 100% of money donated goes to the Starlight Children s Foundation, so you can make a contribution knowing that you are doing it for the right reasons. Why the personalised donation page, you ask? When I spoke to the guys and girls at Starlight they said they could create this custom page so I can report back to you on the amount of good karma we generated.
P.P.P.S. Want to keep in touch?
If you want to hear from me again please click here to subscribe to future additions of our monthly Reflections newsletter.
Sample E-mail for those of you that want to take the easy option when forwarding the message on to 5 of your mates.
After reading this article, I thought it would be a great idea to help the Starlight Children s Foundation grant a kid their wish this Christmas. What do you think?
(Insert your name)